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Week 9 NFL DFS Value Picks with Adam Strangis

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It’s hard to believe that the NFL season is basically at the halfway point and we have our first week of a lot of byes, knocking down our main slate to 10 games. There’s still a ton of players that you can plug in for some value to spend up to one of the most attractive fantasy games we’ve seen all season. There’s not going to be any of the players from the Rams at the Saints, but you best bet I will be heavily invested in that matchup. Let’s see how we fared last week.

QB, Matthew Stafford – 22.0 DK points – Hitting right about 4x is always a nice bonus 

RB, Raheem Mostert – 1.80 DK points – Matt Breida went from limited to 16 carries

RB, Jalen Richard – 14.4 DK points – Richard is almost always going to be the perfect back on DK 

WR, Christian Kirk – 11.4 DK points – He made you wait all game but came through at the very end 

WR, Geronimo Allison – 1.9 DK points – If it makes you feel better, I played him in cash 

TE, C.J. Uzomah – 0 DK points – The dreaded goose egg which still makes no sense to me 

 

Quarterback

Next game:

CHI @ LAR

Time:

Sun, 17th Nov, 07:20PM ET

Odds:

QB

Jared Goff

Los Angeles Rams

Salary: 7,800 5,900
FPPG: 15.89 17.40
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
LAR @ PIT Sun, 10 Nov 2019, 3:25PM ET 8,100 5.72 6,200 6.72
CIN @ LAR Sun, 27 Oct 2019, 1:00PM ET 8,000 22.88 6,800 25.88
LAR @ ATL Sun, 20 Oct 2019, 1:00PM ET 7,800 25.02 6,200 25.02
SF @ LAR Sun, 13 Oct 2019, 4:05PM ET 7,600 1.12 6,100 2.12
LAR @ SEA Thu, 3 Oct 2019, 8:20PM ET 7,500 18.90 6,100 21.90
TB @ LAR Sun, 29 Sep 2019, 4:05PM ET 7,700 23.68 6,300 27.68
LAR @ CLE Sun, 22 Sep 2019, 8:20PM ET 7,500 16.16 6,100 17.16
NO @ LAR Sun, 15 Sep 2019, 4:25PM ET 7,600 19.12 5,900 20.12
LAR @ CAR Sun, 8 Sep 2019, 1:00PM ET 7,800 10.44 6,200 10.44
NE @ LAR Sun, 3 Feb 2019, 6:30PM ET N/a 8.16 N/a 8.16
Season Team PaYd/G PaTD Pa QB Rating PaYd/Pa Avg
2019 LAR 291.8 11 82.7 7.4
2018 LAR 299.8 32 101.1 8.4
Date Team Game Score Comp/Att PaYd PaTD PaInt RuAtt RuYd RuTD FD FPts DK FPts
10 Nov 2019 LAR LAR @ PIT 12:17 22/41 243 0 2 1 0 0 5.72 6.72
27 Oct 2019 LAR CIN @ LAR 10:24 17/31 372 2 0 0 0 0 22.88 25.88
20 Oct 2019 LAR LAR @ ATL 37:10 22/37 268 2 0 3 3 1 25.02 25.02
13 Oct 2019 LAR SF @ LAR 20:7 13/24 78 0 0 1 0 0 1.12 2.12
3 Oct 2019 LAR LAR @ SEA 29:30 29/49 395 1 1 1 1 0 18.9 21.9
29 Sep 2019 LAR TB @ LAR 55:40 45/68 517 2 3 0 0 0 23.68 27.68
22 Sep 2019 LAR LAR @ CLE 20:13 24/38 269 2 2 4 14 0 16.16 17.16
15 Sep 2019 LAR NO @ LAR 9:27 19/28 283 1 0 4 -2 1 19.12 20.12
8 Sep 2019 LAR LAR @ CAR 30:27 23/39 186 1 1 4 0 0 10.44 10.44
3 Feb 2019 LAR NE @ LAR 13:3 19/38 229 0 1 0 0 0 8.16 8.16

Is Goff the chalk this week? It’s entirely possible but I’ll be happy to eat it in this spot. Goff isn’t always my favorite quarterback to use in DFS. It’s not that he’s not a very talented player in a great system. In fact, Goff has seen a massive spike in many stats so far this season. His completion percentage has jumped five percent, he’s throwing for 50 more yards per game and the yards per attempt is up by 1.5 yards. Even though his touchdown percentage is up, the fear always is Todd Gurley. He has a massive 47 rush attempts in the red zone and is on pace for 30 total touchdowns. 11 of his 15 have been on the ground so it hasn’t always been the easiest for Goff to hit value. This game isn’t one I’m concerned with since the Saints have given up 15 touchdown passes to go along with 300 passing yards per game and a rating of 111.5. I will have a lot of Jared Goff this week and the $6,000 price tag is far too low.

 

Running Back 

Note – Adam Pfiefer wrote up Latavius Murray in his outstanding NFL package and my favorite running back pair is Gurley and Murray. I won’t write him up but he is locked in provided Dalvin Cook misses this game. 

Next game:

NE @ PHI

Time:

Sun, 17th Nov, 03:25PM ET

Odds:

RB

Jordan Howard

Philadelphia Eagles

Salary: 6,100 4,700
FPPG: 11.82 12.40
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
CHI @ PHI Sun, 3 Nov 2019, 12:00PM ET 6,300 14.80 5,100 15.30
PHI @ BUF Sun, 27 Oct 2019, 1:00PM ET 6,000 17.60 4,600 18.10
PHI @ DAL Sun, 20 Oct 2019, 8:20PM ET 6,000 6.60 4,800 7.60
PHI @ MIN Sun, 13 Oct 2019, 1:00PM ET 6,200 4.90 4,900 4.90
NYJ @ PHI Sun, 6 Oct 2019, 1:00PM ET 6,500 12.20 5,100 12.20
PHI @ GB Thu, 26 Sep 2019, 8:20PM ET 5,500 31.00 4,600 32.50
DET @ PHI Sun, 22 Sep 2019, 1:00PM ET 5,600 9.70 4,100 9.70
PHI @ ATL Sun, 15 Sep 2019, 8:20PM ET 5,600 3.10 4,300 3.60
WSH @ PHI Sun, 8 Sep 2019, 1:00PM ET 5,800 6.50 4,200 7.50
PHI @ CHI Sun, 6 Jan 2019, 4:40PM ET 7,600 3.50 4,600 3.50
Season Team RuAtt RuYd/G RuTD RuYd/R Avg RecR RecTa RecYd/G RecTD
2019 PHI 119 58.3 6 4.4 10 14 7.7 1
2018 CHI 250 58.4 9 3.7 20 27 9.1 0
Date Team Game Score RuAtt RuYd RuAvg RuTD Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
3 Nov 2019 PHI CHI @ PHI 14:22 19 82 4.3 1 1 1 1 0 14.8 15.3
27 Oct 2019 PHI PHI @ BUF 31:13 23 96 4.2 1 1 15 15 0 17.6 18.1
20 Oct 2019 PHI PHI @ DAL 10:37 11 50 4.5 0 2 6 3 0 6.6 7.6
13 Oct 2019 PHI PHI @ MIN 20:38 13 49 3.8 0 0 0 0 0 4.9 4.9
6 Oct 2019 PHI NYJ @ PHI 6:31 13 62 4.8 1 0 0 0 0 12.2 12.2
26 Sep 2019 PHI PHI @ GB 34:27 15 87 5.8 2 3 28 9.3 1 31 32.5
22 Sep 2019 PHI DET @ PHI 27:24 11 37 3.4 1 0 0 0 0 9.7 9.7
15 Sep 2019 PHI PHI @ ATL 20:24 8 18 2.3 0 1 8 8 0 3.1 3.6
8 Sep 2019 PHI WSH @ PHI 27:32 6 44 7.3 0 2 11 5.5 0 6.5 7.5
6 Jan 2019 CHI PHI @ CHI 16:15 10 35 3.5 0 0 0 0 0 3.5 3.5

After the explosion of fantasy points from teammate Tarik Cohen the past few games, I didn’t really think I would be writing Howard up again. However, the confluence of events might be too good to ignore this week. When the Bears were in control of the game last week, they leaned on the defense and gave Howard 22 carries. He wasn’t spectacular with those touches but he did find the end zone. That shouldn’t be surprising since he has a 30 percent share of all red zone work for the Bears. Nathan Peterman is starting for the Bills so it’s very difficult to see how the Bills put points on the board. This game should be a lot of Howard and the Bears defense. If Howard gets 15-18 carries against a defense that 106.4 rushing yards a game, he should pay off this price.

Next game:

Time:

Odds:

RB

Elijah McGuire

Salary: 4,500 3,000
FPPG: 9.55
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
NYJ @ NE Sun, 30 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,300 5.50 5,300 7.50
GB @ NYJ Sun, 23 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,700 22.00 4,700 23.50
HOU @ NYJ Sat, 15 Dec 2018, 4:30PM ET 5,700 12.60 4,000 15.10
NYJ @ BUF Sun, 9 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 4,600 15.80 3,400 17.30
NYJ @ TEN Sun, 2 Dec 2018, 4:05PM ET 4,900 2.00 3,600 2.50
NE @ NYJ Sun, 25 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 4,900 3.10 3,600 3.60
BUF @ NYJ Sun, 11 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 4,900 7.20 3,400 8.70
NYJ @ MIA Sun, 4 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 4,900 8.20 3,000 9.70
NYJ @ NE Sun, 31 Dec 2017, 1:00PM ET N/a 2.50 N/a 4.00
LAC @ NYJ Sun, 24 Dec 2017, 1:00PM ET N/a -2.00 N/a -1.00
Season Team RuAtt RuYd/G RuTD RuYd/R Avg RecR RecTa RecYd/G RecTD
2018 NYJ 92 34.5 3 3 19 31 24.1 1
Date Team Game Score RuAtt RuYd RuAvg RuTD Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
30 Dec 2018 NYJ NYJ @ NE 3:38 18 41 2.3 0 2 24 12 0 5.5 7.5
23 Dec 2018 NYJ GB @ NYJ 44:38 14 35 2.5 1 3 50 16.7 1 22 23.5
15 Dec 2018 NYJ HOU @ NYJ 29:22 18 42 2.3 1 3 29 9.7 0 12.6 15.1
9 Dec 2018 NYJ NYJ @ BUF 27:23 17 60 3.5 1 3 23 7.7 0 15.8 17.3
2 Dec 2018 NYJ NYJ @ TEN 22:26 6 19 3.2 0 1 -4 -4 0 2 2.5
25 Nov 2018 NYJ NE @ NYJ 27:13 6 19 3.2 0 1 7 7 0 3.1 3.6
11 Nov 2018 NYJ BUF @ NYJ 41:10 6 30 5 0 3 27 9 0 7.2 8.7
4 Nov 2018 NYJ NYJ @ MIA 6:13 7 30 4.3 0 3 37 12.3 0 8.2 9.7
31 Dec 2017 NYJ NYJ @ NE 6:26 4 -6 -1.5 0 3 16 5.3 0 2.5 4
24 Dec 2017 NYJ LAC @ NYJ 14:7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -1

So the smart cash play is Isaiah Crowell at $4,200. You know he’ll see double digit touches and the Dolphins have been abjectly terrible against running backs so far this year. However, that last part of the sentence is exactly why I’m interested in a minimum priced McGuire. The first step is being activated off the injured reserve but it does seem likely to happen. McGuire has been practicing and reportedly was set to be active this week. Provided he is, Bilal Powell vacated almost half of the snaps when he was injured. The Dolphins have given up 10 total touchdowns to running backs so far in just eight games and are bleeding 143.1 yards per game on the ground. That’s a recipe for a solid return at the lowest price you can pay.

 

Wide Receiver 

Note – Courtland Sutton will not be written up but he is going to be the free square in cash games. Just use him and move on. 

D.J. Moore

A very nice pivot away from all the Sutton chalk this week is Panthers wide receiver D.J. Moore. He draws a dream matchup against one of the worst secondaries in football. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have allowed the second most passing yards per game and are only about a yard from being the worst. The other number that catches your eye is the 20 passing touchdowns they’ve allowed, which is the most in football. Half of that number has been given up to a slot receiver and that’s the role that Moore occupies right about 45 percent of the time. It would be great if Torrey Smith were out of this game again but even if he’s not, Moore has progressively been getting more involved in the offense. He had over 100 total yards last week and should be a fairly safe bet for at least four receptions for 45 yards and has big time touchdown upside.

Next game:

BUF @ MIA

Time:

Sun, 17th Nov, 12:00PM ET

Odds:

WR

DeVante Parker

Miami Dolphins

Salary: 5,600 4,700
FPPG: 9.71 11.50
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
MIA @ IND Sun, 10 Nov 2019, 3:05PM ET 5,800 9.40 4,800 11.90
NYJ @ MIA Sun, 3 Nov 2019, 12:00PM ET 5,800 13.70 4,400 15.70
MIA @ PIT Mon, 28 Oct 2019, 8:15PM ET 5,500 8.90 4,200 11.90
MIA @ BUF Sun, 20 Oct 2019, 1:00PM ET 5,400 14.00 3,800 16.50
WSH @ MIA Sun, 13 Oct 2019, 1:00PM ET 5,400 10.30 4,200 11.80
LAC @ MIA Sun, 29 Sep 2019, 1:00PM ET 5,000 15.00 4,100 17.00
MIA @ DAL Sun, 22 Sep 2019, 1:00PM ET 4,800 7.10 4,000 8.60
NE @ MIA Sun, 15 Sep 2019, 1:00PM ET 5,300 0 4,100 0
BAL @ MIA Sun, 8 Sep 2019, 1:00PM ET 5,300 9.00 3,900 10.50
JAC @ MIA Sun, 23 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 4,600 2.30 3,600 3.30
Season Team ReR ReTa ReYd ReYd/G ReTD Yd/Ta
2019 MIA 33 62 469 52.1 4 7.56
2018 MIA 24 47 309 28.1 1 6.57
Date Team Game Score Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
10 Nov 2019 MIA MIA @ IND 16:12 5 69 13.8 0 9.4 11.9
3 Nov 2019 MIA NYJ @ MIA 18:26 4 57 14.3 1 13.7 15.7
28 Oct 2019 MIA MIA @ PIT 14:27 6 59 9.8 0 8.9 11.9
20 Oct 2019 MIA MIA @ BUF 21:31 5 55 11 1 14 16.5
13 Oct 2019 MIA WSH @ MIA 17:16 3 28 9.3 1 10.3 11.8
29 Sep 2019 MIA LAC @ MIA 30:10 4 70 17.5 1 15 17
22 Sep 2019 MIA MIA @ DAL 6:31 3 56 18.7 0 7.1 8.6
15 Sep 2019 MIA NE @ MIA 43:0 0 0 0 0 0 0
8 Sep 2019 MIA BAL @ MIA 59:10 3 75 25 0 9 10.5
23 Dec 2018 MIA JAC @ MIA 17:7 2 13 6.5 0 2.3 3.3

I haven’t decided if I would be bold enough to use Parker in cash yet but he’s definitely a value this week. The price is still under $5,000 coming off a very impressive game against the Texans. The nine targets he saw last week isn’t the most bankable thing ever in an offense that loves to spread the ball around. However, I think Parker has the most talent out of anyone at the position in Miami. He also needs to back up his agent trashing coach Adam Gase and continue to prove that he deserved to see the field long before last week. From the Jets side, they have gotten smacked around by receivers. They’ve surrendered over 1,600 yards to just receivers so far and have gotten hit for 10 touchdown receptions so far. Parker is a little scary but there’s a lot of factors that lineup incredibly well for him this week. If you really feel odd using him, Danny Amendola is only $100 more and you could argue has the safer floor for cash games.

 

Tight End 

Next game:

NO @ TB

Time:

Sun, 17th Nov, 12:00PM ET

Odds:

TE

O.J. Howard

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Salary: 5,300 3,600
FPPG: 5.80 6.30
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
ARI @ TB Sun, 10 Nov 2019, 12:00PM ET 5,000 12.70 3,300 14.70
CAR @ TB Sun, 13 Oct 2019, 9:30AM ET 5,100 4.50 3,700 5.50
TB @ NO Sun, 6 Oct 2019, 1:00PM ET 5,400 1.50 3,900 2.00
TB @ LAR Sun, 29 Sep 2019, 4:05PM ET 5,900 4.80 3,900 6.30
NYG @ TB Sun, 22 Sep 2019, 4:05PM ET 5,800 8.10 3,800 9.60
SF @ TB Sun, 8 Sep 2019, 4:25PM ET 6,500 3.20 5,000 6.20
TB @ NYG Sun, 18 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,300 10.30 4,900 12.80
WSH @ TB Sun, 11 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,500 2.00 5,300 2.50
TB @ CAR Sun, 4 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,000 19.30 4,300 21.30
TB @ CIN Sun, 28 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,800 14.80 3,900 16.80
Season Team ReR ReTa ReYd ReYd/G ReTD Yd/Ta
2019 TB 17 25 223 31.9 1 8.92
2018 TB 34 48 565 56.5 5 11.77
Date Team Game Score Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
10 Nov 2019 TB ARI @ TB 27:30 4 47 11.8 1 12.7 14.7
13 Oct 2019 TB CAR @ TB 37:26 2 35 17.5 0 4.5 5.5
6 Oct 2019 TB TB @ NO 24:31 1 10 10 0 1.5 2
29 Sep 2019 TB TB @ LAR 55:40 3 33 11 0 4.8 6.3
22 Sep 2019 TB NYG @ TB 32:31 3 66 22 0 8.1 9.6
8 Sep 2019 TB SF @ TB 31:17 4 32 8 0 3.2 6.2
18 Nov 2018 TB TB @ NYG 35:38 5 78 15.6 0 10.3 12.8
11 Nov 2018 TB WSH @ TB 16:3 1 15 15 0 2 2.5
4 Nov 2018 TB TB @ CAR 28:42 4 53 13.3 2 19.3 21.3
28 Oct 2018 TB TB @ CIN 34:37 4 68 17 1 14.8 16.8

Tight end is a mess, as usual. This slate seems especially challenging to pay down at the position an further than $4,300. As a full disclosure, I’m planning on using either Travis Kelce, Greg Olsen or one other player this week. The un-named tight end is none other than O.J. Howard. Myself and Adam are in lockstep on many players on this slate and I’ll let him explain why Howard is the cheapest I’m using this week.

I’m going right back to the well with Howard. He has been over 50 receiving yards in every single full game he’s played this season and is coming off a strong game where he found the end zone. Like I talked about earlier, the Tampa Bay offense should simply be more efficient with Fitzpatrick under center. The matchup is very good, as the Panthers are now allowing the most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends this season (15.7), while tight ends are averaging 9.3 targets per game against Carolina, which ranks second in the league. They have allowed a touchdown to an opposing tight end in three straight games and that was to Dallas Goedert, Vernon Davis and Hayden Hurst.