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Week 9 NFL DFS Value Picks with Adam Strangis

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It’s hard to believe that the NFL season is basically at the halfway point and we have our first week of a lot of byes, knocking down our main slate to 10 games. There’s still a ton of players that you can plug in for some value to spend up to one of the most attractive fantasy games we’ve seen all season. There’s not going to be any of the players from the Rams at the Saints, but you best bet I will be heavily invested in that matchup. Let’s see how we fared last week.

QB, Matthew Stafford – 22.0 DK points – Hitting right about 4x is always a nice bonus 

RB, Raheem Mostert – 1.80 DK points – Matt Breida went from limited to 16 carries

RB, Jalen Richard – 14.4 DK points – Richard is almost always going to be the perfect back on DK 

WR, Christian Kirk – 11.4 DK points – He made you wait all game but came through at the very end 

WR, Geronimo Allison – 1.9 DK points – If it makes you feel better, I played him in cash 

TE, C.J. Uzomah – 0 DK points – The dreaded goose egg which still makes no sense to me 

 

Quarterback

Next game:

LAR @ CAR

Time:

Sun, 8th Sep, 01:00PM ET

Odds:

QB

Jared Goff

Los Angeles Rams

Salary: 7,800 5,400
FPPG: 20.15 20.90
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
NE @ LAR Sun, 3 Feb 2019, 6:30PM ET N/a 8.16 N/a 8.16
LAR @ NO Sun, 20 Jan 2019, 3:05PM ET 8,000 15.88 5,400 15.88
DAL @ LAR Sat, 12 Jan 2019, 8:15PM ET 7,800 8.64 5,500 8.64
SF @ LAR Sun, 30 Dec 2018, 4:25PM ET 7,800 23.96 6,200 23.96
LAR @ ARI Sun, 23 Dec 2018, 4:05PM ET 8,000 17.24 6,400 18.24
PHI @ LAR Sun, 16 Dec 2018, 8:20PM ET 7,900 12.66 6,400 15.66
LAR @ CHI Sun, 9 Dec 2018, 8:20PM ET 7,900 3.70 5,800 3.70
LAR @ DET Sun, 2 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 8,400 9.08 6,400 10.08
KC @ LAR Mon, 19 Nov 2018, 8:15PM ET 8,300 35.12 6,400 40.12
SEA @ LAR Sun, 11 Nov 2018, 4:25PM ET 8,100 21.02 6,100 24.02
Season Team PaYd/G PaTD Pa QB Rating PaYd/Pa Avg
2018 LAR 299.8 32 101.1 8.4
Date Team Game Score Comp/Att PaYd PaTD PaInt RuAtt RuYd RuTD FD FPts DK FPts
3 Feb 2019 LAR NE @ LAR 13:3 19/38 229 0 1 0 0 0 8.16 8.16
20 Jan 2019 LAR LAR @ NO 26:23 25/40 297 1 1 3 10 0 15.88 15.88
12 Jan 2019 LAR DAL @ LAR 22:30 15/28 186 0 0 6 12 0 8.64 8.64
30 Dec 2018 LAR SF @ LAR 32:48 15/26 199 4 0 1 0 0 23.96 23.96
23 Dec 2018 LAR LAR @ ARI 31:9 19/24 216 1 0 2 6 1 17.24 18.24
16 Dec 2018 LAR PHI @ LAR 30:23 35/54 339 0 2 2 11 0 12.66 15.66
9 Dec 2018 LAR LAR @ CHI 6:15 20/44 180 0 4 1 5 0 3.7 3.7
2 Dec 2018 LAR LAR @ DET 30:16 17/33 207 1 1 2 -2 0 9.08 10.08
19 Nov 2018 LAR KC @ LAR 51:54 31/49 413 4 0 4 6 1 35.12 40.12
11 Nov 2018 LAR SEA @ LAR 31:36 28/39 318 2 0 3 3 0 21.02 24.02

Is Goff the chalk this week? It’s entirely possible but I’ll be happy to eat it in this spot. Goff isn’t always my favorite quarterback to use in DFS. It’s not that he’s not a very talented player in a great system. In fact, Goff has seen a massive spike in many stats so far this season. His completion percentage has jumped five percent, he’s throwing for 50 more yards per game and the yards per attempt is up by 1.5 yards. Even though his touchdown percentage is up, the fear always is Todd Gurley. He has a massive 47 rush attempts in the red zone and is on pace for 30 total touchdowns. 11 of his 15 have been on the ground so it hasn’t always been the easiest for Goff to hit value. This game isn’t one I’m concerned with since the Saints have given up 15 touchdown passes to go along with 300 passing yards per game and a rating of 111.5. I will have a lot of Jared Goff this week and the $6,000 price tag is far too low.

 

Running Back 

Note – Adam Pfiefer wrote up Latavius Murray in his outstanding NFL package and my favorite running back pair is Gurley and Murray. I won’t write him up but he is locked in provided Dalvin Cook misses this game. 

Next game:

WSH @ PHI

Time:

Sun, 8th Sep, 01:00PM ET

Odds:

RB

Jordan Howard

Philadelphia Eagles

Salary: 5,800 4,600
FPPG: 10.63 11.70
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
PHI @ CHI Sun, 6 Jan 2019, 4:40PM ET 7,600 3.50 4,600 3.50
CHI @ MIN Sun, 30 Dec 2018, 4:25PM ET 6,000 23.90 4,000 27.40
CHI @ SF Sun, 23 Dec 2018, 4:05PM ET 6,000 14.00 4,300 15.00
GB @ CHI Sun, 16 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,500 14.00 3,900 14.50
LAR @ CHI Sun, 9 Dec 2018, 8:20PM ET 5,700 10.80 3,900 14.30
CHI @ NYG Sun, 2 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,700 8.50 4,000 9.00
CHI @ DET Thu, 22 Nov 2018, 12:30PM ET 6,100 2.00 4,100 2.50
MIN @ CHI Sun, 18 Nov 2018, 8:20PM ET 6,100 7.00 4,300 7.50
DET @ CHI Sun, 11 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,500 3.70 4,700 4.20
CHI @ BUF Sun, 4 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,200 16.70 4,700 16.70
Season Team RuAtt RuYd/G RuTD RuYd/R Avg RecR RecTa RecYd/G RecTD
2018 CHI 250 58.4 9 3.7 20 27 9.1 0
Date Team Game Score RuAtt RuYd RuAvg RuTD Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
6 Jan 2019 CHI PHI @ CHI 16:15 10 35 3.5 0 0 0 0 0 3.5 3.5
30 Dec 2018 CHI CHI @ MIN 24:10 21 109 5.2 2 1 5 5 0 23.9 27.4
23 Dec 2018 CHI CHI @ SF 14:9 13 53 4.1 1 2 17 8.5 0 14 15
16 Dec 2018 CHI GB @ CHI 17:24 19 60 3.2 1 1 15 15 0 14 14.5
9 Dec 2018 CHI LAR @ CHI 6:15 19 101 5.3 0 1 2 2 0 10.8 14.3
2 Dec 2018 CHI CHI @ NYG 27:30 16 76 4.8 0 1 4 4 0 8.5 9
22 Nov 2018 CHI CHI @ DET 23:16 7 13 1.9 0 1 2 2 0 2 2.5
18 Nov 2018 CHI MIN @ CHI 20:25 18 63 3.5 0 1 2 2 0 7 7.5
11 Nov 2018 CHI DET @ CHI 22:34 11 21 1.9 0 1 11 11 0 3.7 4.2
4 Nov 2018 CHI CHI @ BUF 41:9 14 47 3.4 2 0 0 0 0 16.7 16.7

After the explosion of fantasy points from teammate Tarik Cohen the past few games, I didn’t really think I would be writing Howard up again. However, the confluence of events might be too good to ignore this week. When the Bears were in control of the game last week, they leaned on the defense and gave Howard 22 carries. He wasn’t spectacular with those touches but he did find the end zone. That shouldn’t be surprising since he has a 30 percent share of all red zone work for the Bears. Nathan Peterman is starting for the Bills so it’s very difficult to see how the Bills put points on the board. This game should be a lot of Howard and the Bears defense. If Howard gets 15-18 carries against a defense that 106.4 rushing yards a game, he should pay off this price.

Next game:

BUF @ NYJ

Time:

Sun, 8th Sep, 01:00PM ET

Odds:

RB

Elijah McGuire

NY Jets

Salary: 4,500 5,300
FPPG: 9.55 11.50
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
NYJ @ NE Sun, 30 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,300 5.50 5,300 7.50
GB @ NYJ Sun, 23 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,700 22.00 4,700 23.50
HOU @ NYJ Sat, 15 Dec 2018, 4:30PM ET 5,700 12.60 4,000 15.10
NYJ @ BUF Sun, 9 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 4,600 15.80 3,400 17.30
NYJ @ TEN Sun, 2 Dec 2018, 4:05PM ET 4,900 2.00 3,600 2.50
NE @ NYJ Sun, 25 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 4,900 3.10 3,600 3.60
BUF @ NYJ Sun, 11 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 4,900 7.20 3,400 8.70
NYJ @ MIA Sun, 4 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 4,900 8.20 3,000 9.70
NYJ @ NE Sun, 31 Dec 2017, 1:00PM ET N/a 2.50 N/a 4.00
LAC @ NYJ Sun, 24 Dec 2017, 1:00PM ET N/a -2.00 N/a -1.00
Season Team RuAtt RuYd/G RuTD RuYd/R Avg RecR RecTa RecYd/G RecTD
2018 NYJ 92 34.5 3 3 19 31 24.1 1
Date Team Game Score RuAtt RuYd RuAvg RuTD Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
30 Dec 2018 NYJ NYJ @ NE 3:38 18 41 2.3 0 2 24 12 0 5.5 7.5
23 Dec 2018 NYJ GB @ NYJ 44:38 14 35 2.5 1 3 50 16.7 1 22 23.5
15 Dec 2018 NYJ HOU @ NYJ 29:22 18 42 2.3 1 3 29 9.7 0 12.6 15.1
9 Dec 2018 NYJ NYJ @ BUF 27:23 17 60 3.5 1 3 23 7.7 0 15.8 17.3
2 Dec 2018 NYJ NYJ @ TEN 22:26 6 19 3.2 0 1 -4 -4 0 2 2.5
25 Nov 2018 NYJ NE @ NYJ 27:13 6 19 3.2 0 1 7 7 0 3.1 3.6
11 Nov 2018 NYJ BUF @ NYJ 41:10 6 30 5 0 3 27 9 0 7.2 8.7
4 Nov 2018 NYJ NYJ @ MIA 6:13 7 30 4.3 0 3 37 12.3 0 8.2 9.7
31 Dec 2017 NYJ NYJ @ NE 6:26 4 -6 -1.5 0 3 16 5.3 0 2.5 4
24 Dec 2017 NYJ LAC @ NYJ 14:7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -1

So the smart cash play is Isaiah Crowell at $4,200. You know he’ll see double digit touches and the Dolphins have been abjectly terrible against running backs so far this year. However, that last part of the sentence is exactly why I’m interested in a minimum priced McGuire. The first step is being activated off the injured reserve but it does seem likely to happen. McGuire has been practicing and reportedly was set to be active this week. Provided he is, Bilal Powell vacated almost half of the snaps when he was injured. The Dolphins have given up 10 total touchdowns to running backs so far in just eight games and are bleeding 143.1 yards per game on the ground. That’s a recipe for a solid return at the lowest price you can pay.

 

Wide Receiver 

Note – Courtland Sutton will not be written up but he is going to be the free square in cash games. Just use him and move on. 

D.J. Moore

A very nice pivot away from all the Sutton chalk this week is Panthers wide receiver D.J. Moore. He draws a dream matchup against one of the worst secondaries in football. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have allowed the second most passing yards per game and are only about a yard from being the worst. The other number that catches your eye is the 20 passing touchdowns they’ve allowed, which is the most in football. Half of that number has been given up to a slot receiver and that’s the role that Moore occupies right about 45 percent of the time. It would be great if Torrey Smith were out of this game again but even if he’s not, Moore has progressively been getting more involved in the offense. He had over 100 total yards last week and should be a fairly safe bet for at least four receptions for 45 yards and has big time touchdown upside.

Next game:

BAL @ MIA

Time:

Sun, 8th Sep, 01:00PM ET

Odds:

WR

DeVante Parker

Miami Dolphins

Salary: 5,300 3,400
FPPG: 4.45 6.40
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
JAC @ MIA Sun, 23 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 4,600 2.30 3,600 3.30
MIA @ MIN Sun, 16 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 4,900 0 3,900 0
NE @ MIA Sun, 9 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,500 2.30 4,300 2.80
BUF @ MIA Sun, 2 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,400 12.30 3,800 14.30
MIA @ IND Sun, 25 Nov 2018, 4:25PM ET 5,400 2.50 4,200 4.00
MIA @ GB Sun, 11 Nov 2018, 4:25PM ET 5,400 6.80 4,200 9.30
NYJ @ MIA Sun, 4 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,800 1.30 4,600 1.80
MIA @ HOU Thu, 25 Oct 2018, 8:20PM ET 4,700 16.40 3,200 22.40
CHI @ MIA Sun, 14 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,000 0 3,300 0
OAK @ MIA Sun, 23 Sep 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,800 5.00 4,100 6.00
Season Team ReR ReTa ReYd ReYd/G ReTD Yd/Ta
2018 MIA 24 47 309 28.1 1 6.57
Date Team Game Score Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
23 Dec 2018 MIA JAC @ MIA 17:7 2 13 6.5 0 2.3 3.3
16 Dec 2018 MIA MIA @ MIN 17:41 0 0 0 0 0 0
9 Dec 2018 MIA NE @ MIA 33:34 1 18 18 0 2.3 2.8
2 Dec 2018 MIA BUF @ MIA 17:21 4 43 10.8 1 12.3 14.3
25 Nov 2018 MIA MIA @ IND 24:27 3 10 3.3 0 2.5 4
11 Nov 2018 MIA MIA @ GB 12:31 5 43 8.6 0 6.8 9.3
4 Nov 2018 MIA NYJ @ MIA 6:13 1 8 8 0 1.3 1.8
25 Oct 2018 MIA MIA @ HOU 23:42 6 134 22.3 0 16.4 22.4
14 Oct 2018 MIA CHI @ MIA 28:31 0 0 0 0 0 0
23 Sep 2018 MIA OAK @ MIA 20:28 2 40 20 0 5 6

I haven’t decided if I would be bold enough to use Parker in cash yet but he’s definitely a value this week. The price is still under $5,000 coming off a very impressive game against the Texans. The nine targets he saw last week isn’t the most bankable thing ever in an offense that loves to spread the ball around. However, I think Parker has the most talent out of anyone at the position in Miami. He also needs to back up his agent trashing coach Adam Gase and continue to prove that he deserved to see the field long before last week. From the Jets side, they have gotten smacked around by receivers. They’ve surrendered over 1,600 yards to just receivers so far and have gotten hit for 10 touchdown receptions so far. Parker is a little scary but there’s a lot of factors that lineup incredibly well for him this week. If you really feel odd using him, Danny Amendola is only $100 more and you could argue has the safer floor for cash games.

 

Tight End 

Next game:

SF @ TB

Time:

Sun, 8th Sep, 04:25PM ET

Odds:

TE

O.J. Howard

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Salary: 6,500 4,900
FPPG: 10.35 12.10
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
TB @ NYG Sun, 18 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,300 10.30 4,900 12.80
WSH @ TB Sun, 11 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,500 2.00 5,300 2.50
TB @ CAR Sun, 4 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,000 19.30 4,300 21.30
TB @ CIN Sun, 28 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,800 14.80 3,900 16.80
CLE @ TB Sun, 21 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,800 9.20 3,600 11.70
TB @ ATL Sun, 14 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,500 14.20 3,500 16.20
TB @ CHI Sun, 30 Sep 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,600 0 3,500 0
PIT @ TB Mon, 24 Sep 2018, 8:15PM ET 5,600 10.20 3,300 13.20
PHI @ TB Sun, 16 Sep 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,400 17.10 3,200 18.60
TB @ NO Sun, 9 Sep 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,400 6.40 3,100 7.40
Season Team ReR ReTa ReYd ReYd/G ReTD Yd/Ta
2018 TB 34 48 565 56.5 5 11.77
Date Team Game Score Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
18 Nov 2018 TB TB @ NYG 35:38 5 78 15.6 0 10.3 12.8
11 Nov 2018 TB WSH @ TB 16:3 1 15 15 0 2 2.5
4 Nov 2018 TB TB @ CAR 28:42 4 53 13.3 2 19.3 21.3
28 Oct 2018 TB TB @ CIN 34:37 4 68 17 1 14.8 16.8
21 Oct 2018 TB CLE @ TB 23:26 5 67 13.4 0 9.2 11.7
14 Oct 2018 TB TB @ ATL 29:34 4 62 15.5 1 14.2 16.2
30 Sep 2018 TB TB @ CHI 10:48 0 0 0 0 0 0
24 Sep 2018 TB PIT @ TB 30:27 6 72 12 0 10.2 13.2
16 Sep 2018 TB PHI @ TB 21:27 3 96 32 1 17.1 18.6
9 Sep 2018 TB TB @ NO 48:40 2 54 27 0 6.4 7.4

Tight end is a mess, as usual. This slate seems especially challenging to pay down at the position an further than $4,300. As a full disclosure, I’m planning on using either Travis Kelce, Greg Olsen or one other player this week. The un-named tight end is none other than O.J. Howard. Myself and Adam are in lockstep on many players on this slate and I’ll let him explain why Howard is the cheapest I’m using this week.

I’m going right back to the well with Howard. He has been over 50 receiving yards in every single full game he’s played this season and is coming off a strong game where he found the end zone. Like I talked about earlier, the Tampa Bay offense should simply be more efficient with Fitzpatrick under center. The matchup is very good, as the Panthers are now allowing the most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends this season (15.7), while tight ends are averaging 9.3 targets per game against Carolina, which ranks second in the league. They have allowed a touchdown to an opposing tight end in three straight games and that was to Dallas Goedert, Vernon Davis and Hayden Hurst.