Week 9 NFL DFS Value Picks with Adam Strangis

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It’s hard to believe that the NFL season is basically at the halfway point and we have our first week of a lot of byes, knocking down our main slate to 10 games. There’s still a ton of players that you can plug in for some value to spend up to one of the most attractive fantasy games we’ve seen all season. There’s not going to be any of the players from the Rams at the Saints, but you best bet I will be heavily invested in that matchup. Let’s see how we fared last week.

QB, Matthew Stafford – 22.0 DK points – Hitting right about 4x is always a nice bonus 

RB, Raheem Mostert – 1.80 DK points – Matt Breida went from limited to 16 carries

RB, Jalen Richard – 14.4 DK points – Richard is almost always going to be the perfect back on DK 

WR, Christian Kirk – 11.4 DK points – He made you wait all game but came through at the very end 

WR, Geronimo Allison – 1.9 DK points – If it makes you feel better, I played him in cash 

TE, C.J. Uzomah – 0 DK points – The dreaded goose egg which still makes no sense to me 

 

Quarterback

Next game:

KC @ LAR

Time:

Mon, 19th Nov, 08:15PM ET

Odds:

LAR -3.5 / O/U 63.5

QB

Jared Goff

Los Angeles Rams

Salary: 8,300 6,400
FPPG: 22.16 24.00
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
SEA @ LAR Sun, 11 Nov 2018, 4:25PM ET 8,100 21.02 6,100 24.02
LAR @ NO Sun, 4 Nov 2018, 4:25PM ET 8,400 30.34 6,000 33.34
GB @ LAR Sun, 28 Oct 2018, 4:25PM ET 8,500 26.50 6,000 26.50
LAR @ SF Sun, 21 Oct 2018, 4:25PM ET 8,300 16.48 6,600 16.48
LAR @ DEN Sun, 14 Oct 2018, 4:05PM ET 8,200 8.44 6,000 8.44
LAR @ SEA Sun, 7 Oct 2018, 4:25PM ET 8,000 16.34 6,500 19.34
MIN @ LAR Thu, 27 Sep 2018, 8:20PM ET 7,600 39.30 5,700 42.30
LAC @ LAR Sun, 23 Sep 2018, 4:05PM ET 7,600 26.56 5,900 29.56
ARI @ LAR Sun, 16 Sep 2018, 4:05PM ET 7,400 19.36 6,300 22.36
LAR @ OAK Mon, 10 Sep 2018, 10:20PM ET 8,000 17.22 7,000 17.22
Season Team PaYd/G PaTD Pa QB Rating PaYd/Pa Avg
2018 LAR 302 22 113 9.4
2017 LAR 242.1 28 100.5 8
Date Team Game Score Comp/Att PaYd PaTD PaInt RuAtt RuYd RuTD FD FPts DK FPts
11 Nov 2018 LAR SEA @ LAR 31:36 28/39 318 2 0 3 3 0 21.02 24.02
4 Nov 2018 LAR LAR @ NO 35:45 28/40 391 3 1 3 17 0 30.34 33.34
28 Oct 2018 LAR GB @ LAR 27:29 19/35 295 3 0 5 7 0 26.5 26.5
21 Oct 2018 LAR LAR @ SF 39:10 18/24 202 2 0 2 4 0 16.48 16.48
14 Oct 2018 LAR LAR @ DEN 23:20 14/28 201 0 1 4 14 0 8.44 8.44
7 Oct 2018 LAR LAR @ SEA 33:31 23/32 321 1 2 5 15 0 16.34 19.34
27 Sep 2018 LAR MIN @ LAR 31:38 26/33 465 5 0 2 7 0 39.3 42.3
23 Sep 2018 LAR LAC @ LAR 23:35 29/36 354 3 1 3 14 0 26.56 29.56
16 Sep 2018 LAR ARI @ LAR 0:34 24/32 354 1 1 2 2 0 19.36 22.36
10 Sep 2018 LAR LAR @ OAK 33:13 18/33 233 2 0 1 -1 0 17.22 17.22

Is Goff the chalk this week? It’s entirely possible but I’ll be happy to eat it in this spot. Goff isn’t always my favorite quarterback to use in DFS. It’s not that he’s not a very talented player in a great system. In fact, Goff has seen a massive spike in many stats so far this season. His completion percentage has jumped five percent, he’s throwing for 50 more yards per game and the yards per attempt is up by 1.5 yards. Even though his touchdown percentage is up, the fear always is Todd Gurley. He has a massive 47 rush attempts in the red zone and is on pace for 30 total touchdowns. 11 of his 15 have been on the ground so it hasn’t always been the easiest for Goff to hit value. This game isn’t one I’m concerned with since the Saints have given up 15 touchdown passes to go along with 300 passing yards per game and a rating of 111.5. I will have a lot of Jared Goff this week and the $6,000 price tag is far too low.

 

Running Back 

Note – Adam Pfiefer wrote up Latavius Murray in his outstanding NFL package and my favorite running back pair is Gurley and Murray. I won’t write him up but he is locked in provided Dalvin Cook misses this game. 

Next game:

MIN @ CHI

Time:

Sun, 18th Nov, 08:20PM ET

Odds:

CHI -2.5 / O/U 45.5

RB

Jordan Howard

Chicago Bears

Salary: 6,100 4,300
FPPG: 9.98 10.80
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
DET @ CHI Sun, 11 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,500 3.70 4,700 4.20
CHI @ BUF Sun, 4 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,200 16.70 4,700 16.70
NYJ @ CHI Sun, 28 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,000 14.10 4,800 14.10
NE @ CHI Sun, 21 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,200 11.30 5,500 11.80
CHI @ MIA Sun, 14 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,200 4.90 6,500 5.90
TB @ CHI Sun, 30 Sep 2018, 1:00PM ET 7,200 2.50 6,800 2.50
CHI @ ARI Sun, 23 Sep 2018, 4:25PM ET 7,400 15.10 6,500 16.10
SEA @ CHI Mon, 17 Sep 2018, 8:15PM ET 7,400 8.30 5,900 9.80
CHI @ GB Sun, 9 Sep 2018, 8:20PM ET 7,400 13.20 6,300 15.70
CHI @ MIN Sun, 31 Dec 2017, 1:00PM ET N/a 1.90 N/a 2.40
Season Team RuAtt RuYd/G RuTD RuYd/R Avg RecR RecTa RecYd/G RecTD
2018 CHI 137 51.1 5 3.4 12 16 10.9 0
2017 CHI 276 70.1 9 4.1 23 32 7.8 0
Date Team Game Score RuAtt RuYd RuAvg RuTD Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
11 Nov 2018 CHI DET @ CHI 22:34 11 21 1.9 0 1 11 11 0 3.7 4.2
4 Nov 2018 CHI CHI @ BUF 41:9 14 47 3.4 2 0 0 0 0 16.7 16.7
28 Oct 2018 CHI NYJ @ CHI 10:24 22 81 3.7 1 0 0 0 0 14.1 14.1
21 Oct 2018 CHI NE @ CHI 38:31 12 39 3.3 1 1 9 9 0 11.3 11.8
14 Oct 2018 CHI CHI @ MIA 28:31 14 69 4.9 0 0 0 0 0 4.9 5.9
30 Sep 2018 CHI TB @ CHI 10:48 11 25 2.3 0 0 0 0 0 2.5 2.5
23 Sep 2018 CHI CHI @ ARI 16:14 24 61 2.5 1 2 20 10 0 15.1 16.1
17 Sep 2018 CHI SEA @ CHI 17:24 14 35 2.5 0 3 33 11 0 8.3 9.8
9 Sep 2018 CHI CHI @ GB 23:24 15 82 5.5 0 5 25 5 0 13.2 15.7
31 Dec 2017 CHI CHI @ MIN 10:23 9 9 1 0 1 5 5 0 1.9 2.4

After the explosion of fantasy points from teammate Tarik Cohen the past few games, I didn’t really think I would be writing Howard up again. However, the confluence of events might be too good to ignore this week. When the Bears were in control of the game last week, they leaned on the defense and gave Howard 22 carries. He wasn’t spectacular with those touches but he did find the end zone. That shouldn’t be surprising since he has a 30 percent share of all red zone work for the Bears. Nathan Peterman is starting for the Bills so it’s very difficult to see how the Bills put points on the board. This game should be a lot of Howard and the Bears defense. If Howard gets 15-18 carries against a defense that 106.4 rushing yards a game, he should pay off this price.

Next game:

NE @ NYJ

Time:

Sun, 25th Nov, 01:00PM ET

Odds:

RB

Elijah McGuire

NY Jets

Salary: 4,900 3,400
FPPG: 8.20 9.70
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
BUF @ NYJ Sun, 11 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 4,900 7.20 3,400 8.70
NYJ @ MIA Sun, 4 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 4,900 8.20 3,000 9.70
NYJ @ NE Sun, 31 Dec 2017, 1:00PM ET N/a 2.50 N/a 4.00
LAC @ NYJ Sun, 24 Dec 2017, 1:00PM ET N/a -2.00 N/a -1.00
NYJ @ NO Sun, 17 Dec 2017, 1:00PM ET N/a 14.70 N/a 16.20
NYJ @ DEN Sun, 10 Dec 2017, 4:05PM ET N/a -0.30 N/a -0.30
KC @ NYJ Sun, 3 Dec 2017, 1:00PM ET N/a 4.00 N/a 4.00
CAR @ NYJ Sun, 26 Nov 2017, 1:00PM ET N/a 3.90 N/a 4.40
NYJ @ TB Sun, 12 Nov 2017, 1:00PM ET N/a 7.80 N/a 9.80
BUF @ NYJ Thu, 2 Nov 2017, 8:25PM ET N/a 4.40 N/a 4.90
Season Team RuAtt RuYd/G RuTD RuYd/R Avg RecR RecTa RecYd/G RecTD
2018 NYJ 13 30 0 4.6 6 11 32 0
2017 NYJ 88 19.7 1 3.6 17 26 11.1 1
Date Team Game Score RuAtt RuYd RuAvg RuTD Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
11 Nov 2018 NYJ BUF @ NYJ 41:10 6 30 5 0 3 27 9 0 7.2 8.7
4 Nov 2018 NYJ NYJ @ MIA 6:13 7 30 4.3 0 3 37 12.3 0 8.2 9.7
31 Dec 2017 NYJ NYJ @ NE 6:26 4 -6 -1.5 0 3 16 5.3 0 2.5 4
24 Dec 2017 NYJ LAC @ NYJ 14:7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -1
17 Dec 2017 NYJ NYJ @ NO 19:31 4 24 6 0 3 48 16 1 14.7 16.2
10 Dec 2017 NYJ NYJ @ DEN 0:23 1 -3 -3 0 0 0 0 0 -0.3 -0.3
3 Dec 2017 NYJ KC @ NYJ 31:38 5 20 4 0 0 0 0 0 4 4
26 Nov 2017 NYJ CAR @ NYJ 35:27 5 21 4.2 0 1 13 13 0 3.9 4.4
12 Nov 2017 NYJ NYJ @ TB 10:15 8 22 2.8 0 4 36 9 0 7.8 9.8
2 Nov 2017 NYJ BUF @ NYJ 21:34 13 30 2.3 0 1 9 9 0 4.4 4.9

So the smart cash play is Isaiah Crowell at $4,200. You know he’ll see double digit touches and the Dolphins have been abjectly terrible against running backs so far this year. However, that last part of the sentence is exactly why I’m interested in a minimum priced McGuire. The first step is being activated off the injured reserve but it does seem likely to happen. McGuire has been practicing and reportedly was set to be active this week. Provided he is, Bilal Powell vacated almost half of the snaps when he was injured. The Dolphins have given up 10 total touchdowns to running backs so far in just eight games and are bleeding 143.1 yards per game on the ground. That’s a recipe for a solid return at the lowest price you can pay.

 

Wide Receiver 

Note – Courtland Sutton will not be written up but he is going to be the free square in cash games. Just use him and move on. 

D.J. Moore

A very nice pivot away from all the Sutton chalk this week is Panthers wide receiver D.J. Moore. He draws a dream matchup against one of the worst secondaries in football. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have allowed the second most passing yards per game and are only about a yard from being the worst. The other number that catches your eye is the 20 passing touchdowns they’ve allowed, which is the most in football. Half of that number has been given up to a slot receiver and that’s the role that Moore occupies right about 45 percent of the time. It would be great if Torrey Smith were out of this game again but even if he’s not, Moore has progressively been getting more involved in the offense. He had over 100 total yards last week and should be a fairly safe bet for at least four receptions for 45 yards and has big time touchdown upside.

Next game:

MIA @ IND

Time:

Sun, 25th Nov, 04:25PM ET

Odds:

WR

DeVante Parker

Miami Dolphins

Salary: 5,400 4,200
FPPG: 5.68 7.60
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
MIA @ GB Sun, 11 Nov 2018, 4:25PM ET 5,400 6.80 4,200 9.30
NYJ @ MIA Sun, 4 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,800 1.30 4,600 1.80
MIA @ HOU Thu, 25 Oct 2018, 8:20PM ET 4,700 16.40 3,200 22.40
CHI @ MIA Sun, 14 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,000 0 3,300 0
OAK @ MIA Sun, 23 Sep 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,800 5.00 4,100 6.00
BUF @ MIA Sun, 31 Dec 2017, 4:25PM ET N/a 9.40 N/a 12.40
MIA @ KC Sun, 24 Dec 2017, 1:00PM ET N/a 8.80 N/a 11.30
MIA @ BUF Sun, 17 Dec 2017, 1:00PM ET N/a 11.90 N/a 14.90
NE @ MIA Mon, 11 Dec 2017, 8:30PM ET N/a 6.00 N/a 8.00
DEN @ MIA Sun, 3 Dec 2017, 1:00PM ET N/a 1.00 N/a 1.50
Season Team ReR ReTa ReYd ReYd/G ReTD Yd/Ta
2018 MIA 14 26 225 45 0 8.65
2017 MIA 57 96 670 51.5 1 6.98
Date Team Game Score Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
11 Nov 2018 MIA MIA @ GB 12:31 5 43 8.6 0 6.8 9.3
4 Nov 2018 MIA NYJ @ MIA 6:13 1 8 8 0 1.3 1.8
25 Oct 2018 MIA MIA @ HOU 23:42 6 134 22.3 0 16.4 22.4
14 Oct 2018 MIA CHI @ MIA 28:31 0 0 0 0 0 0
23 Sep 2018 MIA OAK @ MIA 20:28 2 40 20 0 5 6
31 Dec 2017 MIA BUF @ MIA 22:16 6 64 10.7 0 9.4 12.4
24 Dec 2017 MIA MIA @ KC 13:29 5 63 12.6 0 8.8 11.3
17 Dec 2017 MIA MIA @ BUF 16:24 6 89 14.8 0 11.9 14.9
11 Dec 2017 MIA NE @ MIA 20:27 4 40 10 0 6 8
3 Dec 2017 MIA DEN @ MIA 9:35 1 5 5 0 1 1.5

I haven’t decided if I would be bold enough to use Parker in cash yet but he’s definitely a value this week. The price is still under $5,000 coming off a very impressive game against the Texans. The nine targets he saw last week isn’t the most bankable thing ever in an offense that loves to spread the ball around. However, I think Parker has the most talent out of anyone at the position in Miami. He also needs to back up his agent trashing coach Adam Gase and continue to prove that he deserved to see the field long before last week. From the Jets side, they have gotten smacked around by receivers. They’ve surrendered over 1,600 yards to just receivers so far and have gotten hit for 10 touchdown receptions so far. Parker is a little scary but there’s a lot of factors that lineup incredibly well for him this week. If you really feel odd using him, Danny Amendola is only $100 more and you could argue has the safer floor for cash games.

 

Tight End 

Next game:

TB @ NYG

Time:

Sun, 18th Nov, 01:00PM ET

Odds:

TB +2.0 / O/U 52.0

TE

O.J. Howard

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Salary: 6,300 4,900
FPPG: 10.36 12.00
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
WSH @ TB Sun, 11 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,500 2.00 5,300 2.50
TB @ CAR Sun, 4 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,000 19.30 4,300 21.30
TB @ CIN Sun, 28 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,800 14.80 3,900 16.80
CLE @ TB Sun, 21 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,800 9.20 3,600 11.70
TB @ ATL Sun, 14 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,500 14.20 3,500 16.20
TB @ CHI Sun, 30 Sep 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,600 0 3,500 0
PIT @ TB Mon, 24 Sep 2018, 8:15PM ET 5,600 10.20 3,300 13.20
PHI @ TB Sun, 16 Sep 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,400 17.10 3,200 18.60
TB @ NO Sun, 9 Sep 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,400 6.40 3,100 7.40
ATL @ TB Mon, 18 Dec 2017, 8:30PM ET N/a 9.50 N/a 10.00
Season Team ReR ReTa ReYd ReYd/G ReTD Yd/Ta
2018 TB 29 42 487 54.1 5 11.60
2017 TB 26 39 432 30.9 6 11.08
Date Team Game Score Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
11 Nov 2018 TB WSH @ TB 16:3 1 15 15 0 2 2.5
4 Nov 2018 TB TB @ CAR 28:42 4 53 13.3 2 19.3 21.3
28 Oct 2018 TB TB @ CIN 34:37 4 68 17 1 14.8 16.8
21 Oct 2018 TB CLE @ TB 23:26 5 67 13.4 0 9.2 11.7
14 Oct 2018 TB TB @ ATL 29:34 4 62 15.5 1 14.2 16.2
30 Sep 2018 TB TB @ CHI 10:48 0 0 0 0 0 0
24 Sep 2018 TB PIT @ TB 30:27 6 72 12 0 10.2 13.2
16 Sep 2018 TB PHI @ TB 21:27 3 96 32 1 17.1 18.6
9 Sep 2018 TB TB @ NO 48:40 2 54 27 0 6.4 7.4
18 Dec 2017 TB ATL @ TB 24:21 1 30 30 1 9.5 10

Tight end is a mess, as usual. This slate seems especially challenging to pay down at the position an further than $4,300. As a full disclosure, I’m planning on using either Travis Kelce, Greg Olsen or one other player this week. The un-named tight end is none other than O.J. Howard. Myself and Adam are in lockstep on many players on this slate and I’ll let him explain why Howard is the cheapest I’m using this week.

I’m going right back to the well with Howard. He has been over 50 receiving yards in every single full game he’s played this season and is coming off a strong game where he found the end zone. Like I talked about earlier, the Tampa Bay offense should simply be more efficient with Fitzpatrick under center. The matchup is very good, as the Panthers are now allowing the most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends this season (15.7), while tight ends are averaging 9.3 targets per game against Carolina, which ranks second in the league. They have allowed a touchdown to an opposing tight end in three straight games and that was to Dallas Goedert, Vernon Davis and Hayden Hurst.