Week 8 NFL Thursday Showdown Slate

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On paper, Thursday Night Football looks like a barnburner with two potent offenses, two pretty bad defenses, and a Vegas point total of 51.5. On closer inspection, there looks like some pretty severe winds and rain tonight which may lend to both teams keeping the ball on the ground. This is a spot where both quarterbacks are going to be pretty good plays at the MVP spot and I would tend to avoid the deep ball catchers and kickers when the winds pick up. Let’s take a look at some picks the optimizers love and some GPP pivots that may go under owned.

MVP:

Next game:

DEN @ CAR

Time:

Sun, 13th Dec, 01:00PM ET

Odds:

QB

Teddy Bridgewater

Carolina Panthers

Salary: 7,000 6,300
FPPG: 18.47 19.50
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
CAR @ MIN Sun, 29 Nov 2020, 1:00PM ET 7,000 14.88 6,300 14.88
TB @ CAR Sun, 15 Nov 2020, 1:00PM ET 7,000 20.04 6,100 20.04
CAR @ KC Sun, 8 Nov 2020, 1:00PM ET 7,300 28.30 6,000 31.30
ATL @ CAR Thu, 29 Oct 2020, 8:20PM ET 7,300 13.04 6,400 13.04
CAR @ NO Sun, 25 Oct 2020, 1:00PM ET 6,800 19.16 5,800 19.16
CHI @ CAR Sun, 18 Oct 2020, 1:00PM ET 6,900 11.44 6,000 11.44
CAR @ ATL Sun, 11 Oct 2020, 1:00PM ET 7,100 20.82 5,900 23.82
ARI @ CAR Sun, 4 Oct 2020, 1:00PM ET 6,800 27.24 5,600 27.24
CAR @ LAC Sun, 27 Sep 2020, 4:05PM ET 6,700 14.60 5,200 14.60
CAR @ TB Sun, 20 Sep 2020, 1:00PM ET 6,900 10.68 5,800 14.68
Season Team PaYd/G PaTD Pa QB Rating PaYd/Pa Avg
2020 CAR 275.2 14 96.3 7.7
2019 NO 157.2 9 99.1 7.1
Date Team Game Score Comp/Att PaYd PaTD PaInt RuAtt RuYd RuTD FD FPts DK FPts
29 Nov 2020 CAR CAR @ MIN 27:28 19/36 267 1 1 2 12 0 14.88 14.88
15 Nov 2020 CAR TB @ CAR 46:23 18/24 136 2 1 3 16 1 20.04 20.04
8 Nov 2020 CAR CAR @ KC 31:33 36/49 310 2 0 2 19 1 28.3 31.3
29 Oct 2020 CAR ATL @ CAR 25:17 15/23 176 1 1 5 30 0 13.04 13.04
25 Oct 2020 CAR CAR @ NO 24:27 23/28 254 2 0 2 10 0 19.16 19.16
18 Oct 2020 CAR CHI @ CAR 23:16 16/29 216 0 2 8 48 0 11.44 11.44
11 Oct 2020 CAR CAR @ ATL 23:16 27/37 313 2 0 3 3 0 20.82 23.82
4 Oct 2020 CAR ARI @ CAR 21:31 26/37 276 2 1 6 32 1 27.24 27.24
27 Sep 2020 CAR CAR @ LAC 21:16 22/28 235 1 0 2 12 0 14.6 14.6
20 Sep 2020 CAR CAR @ TB 17:31 33/42 367 0 2 0 0 0 10.68 14.68

I still think Bridgewater rates out as a higher percentage play just because of how bad the Falcons defense is. Not that the Panthers defense is much better, which of course, puts Matt Ryan into play as well. Bridgewater has the matchups against some pretty bad cornerbacks for Atlanta with DJ Moore and Robby Anderson rate out as having excellent assignments. Do not overlook Mike Davis helping out in the passing game as well even though he has lost some work as of late, Atlanta gives up mega-yardage to pass-catching backs.

Next game:

DEN @ CAR

Time:

Sun, 13th Dec, 01:00PM ET

Odds:

RB

Mike Davis

Carolina Panthers

Salary: 7,200 6,900
FPPG: 12.79 13.90
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
CAR @ MIN Sun, 29 Nov 2020, 1:00PM ET 7,200 9.40 6,900 10.90
DET @ CAR Sun, 22 Nov 2020, 1:00PM ET 7,400 14.90 6,800 15.90
TB @ CAR Sun, 15 Nov 2020, 1:00PM ET 5,400 6.40 6,700 8.40
CAR @ KC Sun, 8 Nov 2020, 1:00PM ET 7,800 6.20 6,700 8.70
ATL @ CAR Thu, 29 Oct 2020, 8:20PM ET 8,400 8.20 6,700 8.70
CAR @ NO Sun, 25 Oct 2020, 1:00PM ET 7,700 6.10 6,600 8.60
CHI @ CAR Sun, 18 Oct 2020, 1:00PM ET 7,500 10.50 7,000 12.50
CAR @ ATL Sun, 11 Oct 2020, 1:00PM ET 6,800 25.40 6,400 29.90
ARI @ CAR Sun, 4 Oct 2020, 1:00PM ET 6,300 19.60 5,700 22.10
CAR @ LAC Sun, 27 Sep 2020, 4:05PM ET 6,000 19.10 5,100 23.10
Season Team RuAtt RuYd/G RuTD RuYd/R Avg RecR RecTa RecYd/G RecTD
2020 CAR 126 42 3 4 52 62 27.4 2
2019 CAR 2 0.4 0 1 0 0 0 0
2019 CHI 11 3.6 0 2.3 7 8 3.1 0
Date Team Game Score RuAtt RuYd RuAvg RuTD Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
29 Nov 2020 CAR CAR @ MIN 27:28 15 55 3.7 0 3 24 8 0 9.4 10.9
22 Nov 2020 CAR DET @ CAR 0:20 19 64 3.4 1 2 15 7.5 0 14.9 15.9
15 Nov 2020 CAR TB @ CAR 46:23 7 32 4.6 0 4 12 3 0 6.4 8.4
8 Nov 2020 CAR CAR @ KC 31:33 1 3 3 0 5 34 6.8 0 6.2 8.7
29 Oct 2020 CAR ATL @ CAR 25:17 13 66 5.1 0 1 11 11 0 8.2 8.7
25 Oct 2020 CAR CAR @ NO 24:27 7 12 1.7 0 5 24 4.8 0 6.1 8.6
18 Oct 2020 CAR CHI @ CAR 23:16 18 52 2.9 1 2 3 1.5 0 10.5 12.5
11 Oct 2020 CAR CAR @ ATL 23:16 16 89 5.6 0 9 60 6.7 1 25.4 29.9
4 Oct 2020 CAR ARI @ CAR 21:31 16 84 5.3 1 5 27 5.4 0 19.6 22.1
27 Sep 2020 CAR CAR @ LAC 21:16 13 46 3.5 0 8 45 5.6 1 19.1 23.1

Back to the wind, Panthers should try and keep the ball on the ground a bit more against Atlanta, especially to kill the clock and keep the explosive Falcons pass-offense off the field. With CMC already ruled out, Davis should be able to carve up the Falcons’ defense both on the ground and through the air. I like Davis over Gurley, just because of how many more catches he can rack up, especially if the Falcons get out to a lead.

Next game:

NO @ ATL

Time:

Sun, 6th Dec, 01:00PM ET

Odds:

ATL +3.0 / O/U 45.5

WR

Julio Jones

Atlanta Falcons

Salary: 8,000 6,600
FPPG: 13.53 17.50
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
ATL @ NO Sun, 22 Nov 2020, 1:00PM ET 8,100 4.90 7,500 5.90
DEN @ ATL Sun, 8 Nov 2020, 1:00PM ET 8,200 13.90 7,200 16.40
ATL @ CAR Thu, 29 Oct 2020, 8:20PM ET 8,300 17.20 7,000 23.70
DET @ ATL Sun, 25 Oct 2020, 1:00PM ET 8,300 13.70 7,100 17.70
ATL @ MIN Sun, 18 Oct 2020, 1:00PM ET 8,200 29.70 6,700 36.70
ATL @ GB Mon, 5 Oct 2020, 9:00PM ET 8,100 5.20 6,000 7.20
ATL @ DAL Sun, 20 Sep 2020, 1:00PM ET 8,200 3.40 7,400 4.40
SEA @ ATL Sun, 13 Sep 2020, 1:00PM ET 8,200 20.20 7,700 27.70
ATL @ TB Sun, 29 Dec 2019, 1:00PM ET 8,500 11.30 8,500 14.80
JAC @ ATL Sun, 22 Dec 2019, 1:00PM ET 8,000 21.60 8,000 29.60
Season Team ReR ReTa ReYd ReYd/G ReTD Yd/Ta
2020 ATL 45 58 677 84.6 3 11.67
2019 ATL 99 157 1 92.9 6 0.01
Date Team Game Score Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
22 Nov 2020 ATL ATL @ NO 9:24 2 39 19.5 0 4.9 5.9
8 Nov 2020 ATL DEN @ ATL 27:34 5 54 10.8 1 13.9 16.4
29 Oct 2020 ATL ATL @ CAR 25:17 7 137 19.6 0 17.2 23.7
25 Oct 2020 ATL DET @ ATL 23:22 8 97 12.1 0 13.7 17.7
18 Oct 2020 ATL ATL @ MIN 40:23 8 137 17.1 2 29.7 36.7
5 Oct 2020 ATL ATL @ GB 16:30 4 32 8 0 5.2 7.2
20 Sep 2020 ATL ATL @ DAL 39:40 2 24 12 0 3.4 4.4
13 Sep 2020 ATL SEA @ ATL 38:25 9 157 17.4 0 20.2 27.7
29 Dec 2019 ATL ATL @ TB 28:22 7 78 11.1 0 11.3 14.8
22 Dec 2019 ATL JAC @ ATL 12:24 10 166 16.6 0 21.6 29.6

Julio is my play for wide receiver tonight and he seems to always come in lower-owned than Ridley. Julio has the short to mid-range area of the field on lock down and I don’t really see any of the Panthers’ cornerbacks being able to handle Julio in the short area passing game. On a windy night, it may be hard for Matt Ryan to hit Ridley downfield on a regular basis, so I like Julio to rack up a ton of yardage.

Flex:

Next game:

DEN @ CAR

Time:

Sun, 13th Dec, 01:00PM ET

Odds:

WR

Robby Anderson

Carolina Panthers

Salary: 6,400 6,100
FPPG: 11.24 15.40
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
CAR @ MIN Sun, 29 Nov 2020, 1:00PM ET 6,400 17.40 6,100 19.40
DET @ CAR Sun, 22 Nov 2020, 1:00PM ET 6,300 8.10 6,000 11.60
TB @ CAR Sun, 15 Nov 2020, 1:00PM ET 6,400 4.10 6,100 6.10
CAR @ KC Sun, 8 Nov 2020, 1:00PM ET 6,600 10.80 6,300 15.30
ATL @ CAR Thu, 29 Oct 2020, 8:20PM ET 6,600 7.30 6,600 9.80
CAR @ NO Sun, 25 Oct 2020, 1:00PM ET 6,400 10.40 6,000 13.40
CHI @ CAR Sun, 18 Oct 2020, 1:00PM ET 6,500 9.70 6,300 11.70
CAR @ ATL Sun, 11 Oct 2020, 1:00PM ET 6,200 15.50 5,900 22.50
ARI @ CAR Sun, 4 Oct 2020, 1:00PM ET 6,200 13.90 5,400 17.90
CAR @ LAC Sun, 27 Sep 2020, 4:05PM ET 6,100 8.00 5,200 10.50
Season Team ReR ReTa ReYd ReYd/G ReTD Yd/Ta
2020 CAR 75 102 912 76 2 8.94
2019 NYJ 52 96 779 48.7 5 8.11
Date Team Game Score Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
29 Nov 2020 CAR CAR @ MIN 27:28 4 94 23.5 1 17.4 19.4
22 Nov 2020 CAR DET @ CAR 0:20 7 46 6.6 0 8.1 11.6
15 Nov 2020 CAR TB @ CAR 46:23 4 21 5.3 0 4.1 6.1
8 Nov 2020 CAR CAR @ KC 31:33 9 63 7 0 10.8 15.3
29 Oct 2020 CAR ATL @ CAR 25:17 5 48 9.6 0 7.3 9.8
25 Oct 2020 CAR CAR @ NO 24:27 6 74 12.3 0 10.4 13.4
18 Oct 2020 CAR CHI @ CAR 23:16 4 77 19.3 0 9.7 11.7
11 Oct 2020 CAR CAR @ ATL 23:16 8 112 14 0 15.5 22.5
4 Oct 2020 CAR ARI @ CAR 21:31 8 99 12.4 0 13.9 17.9
27 Sep 2020 CAR CAR @ LAC 21:16 5 55 11 0 8 10.5

The roles have reversed this year as Robby Anderson is no longer the deep threat he was with the Jets, and DJ Moore is no longer the PPR machine near the line of scrimmage. Given the projected weather, look for Teddy to lean on Anderson more than Moore tonight.

Next game:

DEN @ CAR

Time:

Sun, 13th Dec, 01:00PM ET

Odds:

WR

Curtis Samuel

Carolina Panthers

Salary: 5,900 5,100
FPPG: 10.02 13.80
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
CAR @ MIN Sun, 29 Nov 2020, 1:00PM ET 5,900 10.20 5,100 12.70
DET @ CAR Sun, 22 Nov 2020, 1:00PM ET 5,600 17.40 4,700 21.40
TB @ CAR Sun, 15 Nov 2020, 1:00PM ET 5,700 2.70 4,900 4.20
CAR @ KC Sun, 8 Nov 2020, 1:00PM ET 5,600 22.30 4,400 29.80
ATL @ CAR Thu, 29 Oct 2020, 8:20PM ET 5,400 19.40 4,000 21.40
CAR @ NO Sun, 25 Oct 2020, 1:00PM ET 5,000 14.30 3,900 17.30
CAR @ ATL Sun, 11 Oct 2020, 1:00PM ET 5,100 8.90 4,800 11.40
ARI @ CAR Sun, 4 Oct 2020, 1:00PM ET 5,100 6.30 4,800 7.80
CAR @ LAC Sun, 27 Sep 2020, 4:05PM ET 5,100 7.20 4,000 9.20
CAR @ TB Sun, 20 Sep 2020, 1:00PM ET 5,200 4.90 4,700 5.90
Season Team ReR ReTa ReYd ReYd/G ReTD Yd/Ta
2020 CAR 54 63 517 47 3 8.21
2019 CAR 54 105 627 39.2 6 5.97
Date Team Game Score Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
29 Nov 2020 CAR CAR @ MIN 27:28 5 72 14.4 0 10.2 12.7
22 Nov 2020 CAR DET @ CAR 0:20 8 70 8.8 1 17.4 21.4
15 Nov 2020 CAR TB @ CAR 46:23 3 8 2.7 0 2.7 4.2
8 Nov 2020 CAR CAR @ KC 31:33 9 105 11.7 1 22.3 29.8
29 Oct 2020 CAR ATL @ CAR 25:17 4 31 7.8 1 19.4 21.4
25 Oct 2020 CAR CAR @ NO 24:27 6 48 8 0 14.3 17.3
11 Oct 2020 CAR CAR @ ATL 23:16 5 36 7.2 0 8.9 11.4
4 Oct 2020 CAR ARI @ CAR 21:31 3 51 17 0 6.3 7.8
27 Sep 2020 CAR CAR @ LAC 21:16 4 45 11.3 0 7.2 9.2
20 Sep 2020 CAR CAR @ TB 17:31 2 13 6.5 0 4.9 5.9

Samuel could come in lower-owned today but given his price he makes for an excellent play. The Panthers have used Samuel all over the field including in the backfield and on jet sweeps. If Samuel can get loose today he may put up some major yardage, and he only really needs a few big plays to return value.

Next game:

NO @ ATL

Time:

Sun, 6th Dec, 01:00PM ET

Odds:

ATL +3.0 / O/U 45.5

TE

Hayden Hurst

Atlanta Falcons

Salary: 5,600 4,000
FPPG: 7.67 9.50
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
LV @ ATL Sun, 29 Nov 2020, 1:00PM ET 5,500 6.80 3,900 8.80
ATL @ NO Sun, 22 Nov 2020, 1:00PM ET 5,500 0 4,400 0
DEN @ ATL Sun, 8 Nov 2020, 1:00PM ET 5,600 9.70 4,100 13.20
ATL @ CAR Thu, 29 Oct 2020, 8:20PM ET 5,900 7.90 4,200 10.40
DET @ ATL Sun, 25 Oct 2020, 1:00PM ET 5,600 9.80 4,400 12.80
ATL @ MIN Sun, 18 Oct 2020, 1:00PM ET 5,400 13.70 4,700 15.70
CAR @ ATL Sun, 11 Oct 2020, 1:00PM ET 5,700 1.80 4,700 2.80
ATL @ GB Mon, 5 Oct 2020, 9:00PM ET 5,800 7.10 4,200 9.10
CHI @ ATL Sun, 27 Sep 2020, 1:00PM ET 5,700 6.60 4,700 7.10
ATL @ DAL Sun, 20 Sep 2020, 1:00PM ET 5,700 15.70 4,600 18.20
Season Team ReR ReTa ReYd ReYd/G ReTD Yd/Ta
2020 ATL 41 64 459 41.7 3 7.17
2019 BAL 4 6 53 53 1 8.83
Date Team Game Score Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
29 Nov 2020 ATL LV @ ATL 6:43 4 48 12 0 6.8 8.8
22 Nov 2020 ATL ATL @ NO 9:24 0 0 0 0 0 0
8 Nov 2020 ATL DEN @ ATL 27:34 7 62 8.9 0 9.7 13.2
29 Oct 2020 ATL ATL @ CAR 25:17 5 54 10.8 0 7.9 10.4
25 Oct 2020 ATL DET @ ATL 23:22 6 68 11.3 0 9.8 12.8
18 Oct 2020 ATL ATL @ MIN 40:23 4 57 14.3 1 13.7 15.7
11 Oct 2020 ATL CAR @ ATL 23:16 2 8 4 0 1.8 2.8
5 Oct 2020 ATL ATL @ GB 16:30 4 51 12.8 0 7.1 9.1
27 Sep 2020 ATL CHI @ ATL 30:26 1 1 1 1 6.6 7.1
20 Sep 2020 ATL ATL @ DAL 39:40 5 72 14.4 1 15.7 18.2

I would have looked at a Panthers’ tight end since the Falcons are so bad at defending them, but Ian Thomas just has not been a big part of the offense this year. Hurst actually plays a lot better when Julio is in the lineup and is another player that should fit into the game plan of short quick passes with yards after the catch. With all of the focus on Ridley and Julio, Hurst has thrived in the end zone and through the middle of the field. He has a great chance of pulling of some short catch and runs tonight.