Week 8 NFL DFS Value Picks with Adam Strangis

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We’re back after a bye week of filling in on the Move the Chains article for Josh Collacchi, which didn’t do too badly. That article brought you Cam Newton, Adam Thielen, Todd Gurley and David Njoku among others. It did see its fair share of injuries last week so let’s wipe the slate clean and start fresh in Week 8! Some of the value plays could become chalk due to injuries that we know about or potential trades but at this juncture one thing is clear. That is to eat the value chalk because we have three games out of 10 that has an over/under of 54 or higher. There are three others right on the fringes of the 50 point mark. We need value this week to get as much access as possible to the games projected to score the most points so let’s jump right in!

 

Quarterback 

Next game:

Time:

Odds:

QB

Matthew Stafford

Detroit Lions

Salary: 6,500 5,200
FPPG: 13.65 14.50
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
DET @ GB Sun, 30 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,500 18.44 5,200 18.44
MIN @ DET Sun, 23 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,600 4.64 4,900 4.64
DET @ BUF Sun, 16 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,700 12.32 5,000 12.32
DET @ ARI Sun, 9 Dec 2018, 4:25PM ET 6,700 4.74 5,200 4.74
LAR @ DET Sun, 2 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,700 11.00 5,400 12.00
CHI @ DET Thu, 22 Nov 2018, 12:30PM ET 6,800 7.44 5,300 7.44
CAR @ DET Sun, 18 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,800 13.40 5,400 13.40
DET @ CHI Sun, 11 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,800 17.86 5,000 17.86
DET @ MIN Sun, 4 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 7,300 6.56 5,600 7.56
SEA @ DET Sun, 28 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 7,300 18.00 5,600 22.00
Date Team Game Score Comp/Att PaYd PaTD PaInt RuAtt RuYd RuTD FD FPts DK FPts
30 Dec 2018 DET DET @ GB 31:0 20/32 266 2 0 2 -2 0 18.44 18.44
23 Dec 2018 DET MIN @ DET 27:9 18/32 116 0 0 0 0 0 4.64 4.64
16 Dec 2018 DET DET @ BUF 13:14 22/29 208 1 0 0 0 0 12.32 12.32
9 Dec 2018 DET DET @ ARI 17:3 15/23 101 0 0 1 7 0 4.74 4.74
2 Dec 2018 DET LAR @ DET 30:16 20/33 245 1 1 1 2 0 11 12
22 Nov 2018 DET CHI @ DET 23:16 28/38 236 0 2 0 0 0 7.44 7.44
18 Nov 2018 DET CAR @ DET 19:20 23/37 220 1 0 3 6 0 13.4 13.4
11 Nov 2018 DET DET @ CHI 22:34 25/42 274 2 2 2 9 0 17.86 17.86
4 Nov 2018 DET DET @ MIN 9:24 25/36 199 0 0 5 6 0 6.56 7.56
28 Oct 2018 DET SEA @ DET 28:14 27/40 310 2 1 1 6 0 18 22

Stafford may not have the attention of many coming off a game where he attempted just 22 passes but the price tag should certainly be an eye opener. He’s cheaper than Russell Wilson, Baker Mayfield and a slew of other big name quarterbacks. The Lions have averaged 36 passes a game so the 22 is wildly out of character. Stafford only needs 16.8  DK points to hit the magical 3x mark and that would mean right about 225 yards and two touchdown passes. The veteran signal caller is averaging 267 yards a contest so to go along with tow touchdowns so that mark seems very attainable for Stafford this week.

The Seahawks rank very well against the passing game, as they have given up just the third fewest yards per game. However, that might just be deceiving because they have faced exactly one accomplished passing game. They surrendered 321 passing yards to Jared Goff and the Rams. Other than that, they have faced the Broncos(gave up 329 to Case Keenum), Chicago, Dallas, Arizona and Oakland. Stafford can get it done in this matchup at home.

 

Running Back

Next game:

Time:

Odds:

RB

Raheem Mostert

San Francisco 49ers

Salary: 5,700 3,900
FPPG: 5.93 3.10
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
OAK @ SF Thu, 1 Nov 2018, 8:20PM ET 5,600 14.60 3,900 14.60
SF @ ARI Sun, 28 Oct 2018, 4:25PM ET 5,600 1.80 3,800 1.80
LAR @ SF Sun, 21 Oct 2018, 4:25PM ET 4,900 9.80 3,300 11.80
SF @ GB Mon, 15 Oct 2018, 8:15PM ET 4,900 8.70 3,300 8.70
ARI @ SF Sun, 7 Oct 2018, 4:25PM ET 4,500 -0.60 3,000 0.90
SF @ KC Sun, 23 Sep 2018, 1:00PM ET 4,500 1.30 3,000 1.80
DAL @ SF Sun, 22 Oct 2017, 4:05PM ET N/a 0 N/a 0
SF @ WSH Sun, 15 Oct 2017, 1:00PM ET N/a 1.60 N/a 1.60
SF @ IND Sun, 8 Oct 2017, 1:00PM ET N/a 0.30 N/a 0.30
LAR @ SF Thu, 21 Sep 2017, 8:25PM ET N/a -0.90 N/a 0.10
Date Team Game Score RuAtt RuYd RuAvg RuTD Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
1 Nov 2018 SF OAK @ SF 3:34 7 86 12.3 1 0 0 0 0 14.6 14.6
28 Oct 2018 SF SF @ ARI 15:18 2 18 9 0 0 0 0 0 1.8 1.8
21 Oct 2018 SF LAR @ SF 39:10 7 59 8.4 0 4 19 4.8 0 9.8 11.8
15 Oct 2018 SF SF @ GB 30:33 12 87 7.3 0 0 0 0 0 8.7 8.7
7 Oct 2018 SF ARI @ SF 28:18 5 11 2.2 0 1 -2 -2 0 -0.6 0.9
23 Sep 2018 SF SF @ KC 27:38 1 0 0 0 1 8 8 0 1.3 1.8
22 Oct 2017 SF DAL @ SF 40:10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
15 Oct 2017 SF SF @ WSH 24:26 1 16 16 0 0 0 0 0 1.6 1.6
8 Oct 2017 SF SF @ IND 23:26 1 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0.3 0.3
21 Sep 2017 SF LAR @ SF 41:39 4 11 2.8 0 0 0 0 0 -0.9 0.1

If Matt Breida is out for this game, Mostert will likely become the chalk. Regardless of that factor, I plan on playing some Mostert this week. The Arizona Cardinal are bleeding points to fantasy running backs this year, giving up the most yards on the ground and the most amount of touchdowns. If that wasn’t enough, backs have kicked in 347 yards through the air on 35 receptions for two touchdowns. Mostert has still seen 11 and 12 touches the past two weeks and the game in Green Bay still saw Breida rush the ball 12 times himself. In a matchup as juicy as against Arizona, Mostert can pay off his small price tag on just 8-10 touches. Even if he turns into chalk, I’m happily heading towards him this week.

Next game:

Time:

Odds:

RB

Jalen Richard

Oakland Raiders

Salary: 4,800 4,200
FPPG: 7.99 10.30
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
OAK @ KC Sun, 30 Dec 2018, 4:25PM ET 4,800 2.80 4,200 3.80
DEN @ OAK Mon, 24 Dec 2018, 8:15PM ET 4,800 13.10 4,000 15.10
OAK @ CIN Sun, 16 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 4,800 8.10 3,900 11.60
PIT @ OAK Sun, 9 Dec 2018, 4:25PM ET 4,800 3.40 4,100 3.90
KC @ OAK Sun, 2 Dec 2018, 4:05PM ET 4,800 12.10 4,300 14.60
OAK @ BAL Sun, 25 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,300 2.60 4,300 3.60
OAK @ ARI Sun, 18 Nov 2018, 4:05PM ET 5,300 10.80 4,300 12.30
LAC @ OAK Sun, 11 Nov 2018, 4:05PM ET 5,400 8.40 4,800 10.90
OAK @ SF Thu, 1 Nov 2018, 8:20PM ET 5,700 6.90 4,900 8.90
IND @ OAK Sun, 28 Oct 2018, 4:05PM ET 5,700 10.40 4,200 14.40
Date Team Game Score RuAtt RuYd RuAvg RuTD Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
30 Dec 2018 OAK OAK @ KC 3:35 3 1 0.3 0 2 17 8.5 0 2.8 3.8
24 Dec 2018 OAK DEN @ OAK 14:27 4 11 2.8 1 4 40 10 0 13.1 15.1
16 Dec 2018 OAK OAK @ CIN 16:30 4 9 2.3 0 5 67 13.4 0 8.1 11.6
9 Dec 2018 OAK PIT @ OAK 21:24 8 24 3 0 1 5 5 0 3.4 3.9
2 Dec 2018 OAK KC @ OAK 40:33 6 95 15.8 0 3 31 10.3 0 12.1 14.6
25 Nov 2018 OAK OAK @ BAL 17:34 1 1 1 0 2 15 7.5 0 2.6 3.6
18 Nov 2018 OAK OAK @ ARI 23:21 11 61 5.5 0 3 32 10.7 0 10.8 12.3
11 Nov 2018 OAK LAC @ OAK 20:6 3 7 2.3 0 5 52 10.4 0 8.4 10.9
1 Nov 2018 OAK OAK @ SF 3:34 2 4 2 0 4 45 11.3 0 6.9 8.9
28 Oct 2018 OAK IND @ OAK 42:28 2 14 7 0 8 50 6.3 0 10.4 14.4

With the loss of Marshawn Lynch, it would appear that Richard might get a few more chances to touch the ball in the next few weeks. The Raiders are talking about Doug Martin being the main running back and that’s fine. I have no problem believing Jon Gruden will play the old and busted guy ahead of the younger guy who might actually have some upside. Even if Gruden insists on forcing Martin into our lives, Richard is the perfect running back play on DraftKings. He’s not going to get a ton of carries but he will see plenty of targets. There’s only been one game that he hasn’t seen at least five because the Raiders were leading that game for a significant portion of it. The Colts offense is seventh in points per game so this projects to either be a high scoring affair or having the Raiders trailing. Richard should be a pretty safe bet for five receptions and possibly around 40-50 yards. There’s a reasonable ceiling on top of that against a defense that has given up 49 receptions to running backs, tied for second most in football.

 

Wide Receiver 

Next game:

Time:

Odds:

WR

Christian Kirk

Arizona Cardinals

Salary: 5,000 4,600
FPPG: 8.50 10.30
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
ARI @ GB Sun, 2 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,700 9.20 4,600 10.70
ARI @ LAC Sun, 25 Nov 2018, 4:05PM ET 5,600 6.10 4,500 8.10
OAK @ ARI Sun, 18 Nov 2018, 4:05PM ET 5,100 15.20 4,700 16.70
ARI @ KC Sun, 11 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,400 1.80 4,900 2.80
SF @ ARI Sun, 28 Oct 2018, 4:25PM ET 5,400 11.70 4,500 13.20
DEN @ ARI Thu, 18 Oct 2018, 8:20PM ET 5,500 7.20 4,600 8.70
ARI @ MIN Sun, 14 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,400 10.70 4,200 13.70
ARI @ SF Sun, 7 Oct 2018, 4:25PM ET 5,200 16.50 3,700 18.00
SEA @ ARI Sun, 30 Sep 2018, 4:05PM ET 5,400 5.50 3,700 7.50
CHI @ ARI Sun, 23 Sep 2018, 4:25PM ET 5,400 12.50 3,500 16.00
Date Team Game Score Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
2 Dec 2018 ARI ARI @ GB 20:17 3 54 18 0 9.2 10.7
25 Nov 2018 ARI ARI @ LAC 10:45 4 41 10.3 0 6.1 8.1
18 Nov 2018 ARI OAK @ ARI 23:21 3 77 25.7 1 15.2 16.7
11 Nov 2018 ARI ARI @ KC 14:26 2 8 4 0 1.8 2.8
28 Oct 2018 ARI SF @ ARI 15:18 3 42 14 1 11.7 13.2
18 Oct 2018 ARI DEN @ ARI 45:10 3 57 19 0 7.2 8.7
14 Oct 2018 ARI ARI @ MIN 17:27 6 77 12.8 0 10.7 13.7
7 Oct 2018 ARI ARI @ SF 28:18 3 85 28.3 1 16.5 18
30 Sep 2018 ARI SEA @ ARI 20:17 4 28 7 0 5.5 7.5
23 Sep 2018 ARI CHI @ ARI 16:14 7 90 12.9 0 12.5 16

Since Josh Rosen became the starter for the Cardinals in Week 4, Kirk has been on a 16 game pace for 64 receptions and 988 yards. That’s a pretty solid pace and Kirk has already gotten to the division rivals in the first game for a career high 18.0 DK points. San Francisco might not have Richard Sherman in this game but even if they do, Kirk is commanding a target share of 18 percent. Rosen may not be the best quarterback in the league but the Arizona offense doesn’t have a ton of options. Larry Fitzgerald has been hurt and ineffective this season. I’m not buying his “big” game last week because without the touchdown, he would have only score eight points. Kirk is quickly becoming the receiver to play in this offense and he hasn’t been priced like it.

Next game:

Time:

Odds:

WR

Geronimo Allison

Green Bay Packers

Salary: 4,500 3,000
FPPG: 10.46 12.50
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
GB @ LAR Sun, 28 Oct 2018, 4:25PM ET 5,700 1.90 5,000 2.40
BUF @ GB Sun, 30 Sep 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,900 11.00 4,700 14.00
GB @ WSH Sun, 23 Sep 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,000 14.60 4,500 15.60
MIN @ GB Sun, 16 Sep 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,000 9.40 3,800 12.40
CHI @ GB Sun, 9 Sep 2018, 8:20PM ET 5,000 15.40 3,900 17.90
GB @ DET Sun, 31 Dec 2017, 1:00PM ET N/a 2.50 N/a 3.50
MIN @ GB Sat, 23 Dec 2017, 8:30PM ET N/a 1.40 N/a 1.90
GB @ CAR Sun, 17 Dec 2017, 1:00PM ET N/a 3.80 N/a 7.30
GB @ CLE Sun, 10 Dec 2017, 1:00PM ET N/a 4.90 N/a 6.90
BAL @ GB Sun, 19 Nov 2017, 1:00PM ET N/a 0 N/a 0
Date Team Game Score Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
28 Oct 2018 GB GB @ LAR 27:29 1 14 14 0 1.9 2.4
30 Sep 2018 GB BUF @ GB 0:22 6 80 13.3 0 11 14
23 Sep 2018 GB GB @ WSH 17:31 2 76 38 1 14.6 15.6
16 Sep 2018 GB MIN @ GB 29:29 6 64 10.7 0 9.4 12.4
9 Sep 2018 GB CHI @ GB 23:24 5 69 13.8 1 15.4 17.9
31 Dec 2017 GB GB @ DET 11:35 2 15 7.5 0 2.5 3.5
23 Dec 2017 GB MIN @ GB 16:0 1 9 9 0 1.4 1.9
17 Dec 2017 GB GB @ CAR 24:31 5 33 6.6 0 3.8 7.3
10 Dec 2017 GB GB @ CLE 27:21 4 29 7.3 0 4.9 6.9
19 Nov 2017 GB BAL @ GB 23:0 0 0 0 0 0 0

I always loved Allison when he was playing and this is a great way to get a piece of a game that is pushing 60 points for the over/under. He did only get in a limited practice on Wednesday so we need to make sure he’s fully up to speed but the expectation is he’ll be in this week. Allison averaged a little over seven targets a game and never fell below 64 yards in any healthy game. I’m not concerned with Marcus Peters on Davante Adams but that doesn’t mean that Allison won’t see plenty of opportunities in this game. With two touchdowns to his name, the trust of Aaron Rodgers and the need to score a ton of points, Allison should have a floor of 15 DK points needed for his price this week.

Note – Courtland Sutton becomes a very chalky and appealing option if one of Emmanuel Sanders or Demaryius Thomas gets traded away from the Denver Broncos 

 

Tight End 

Next game:

Time:

Odds:

TE

C.J. Uzomah

Cincinnati Bengals

Salary: 5,500 3,500
FPPG: 5.49 6.90
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
CIN @ PIT Sun, 30 Dec 2018, 4:25PM ET 5,500 1.10 3,500 1.60
CIN @ CLE Sun, 23 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,000 12.90 3,300 14.90
OAK @ CIN Sun, 16 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,000 3.20 3,600 3.70
CIN @ LAC Sun, 9 Dec 2018, 4:05PM ET 5,200 5.20 3,500 6.70
DEN @ CIN Sun, 2 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,200 5.80 3,400 8.30
CLE @ CIN Sun, 25 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,200 6.90 3,300 9.90
CIN @ BAL Sun, 18 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,300 5.60 3,400 7.10
NO @ CIN Sun, 11 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,400 3.80 3,700 5.30
CIN @ KC Sun, 21 Oct 2018, 8:20PM ET 5,400 8.30 3,400 9.30
PIT @ CIN Sun, 14 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,100 8.40 3,000 11.40
Date Team Game Score Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
30 Dec 2018 CIN CIN @ PIT 13:16 1 6 6 0 1.1 1.6
23 Dec 2018 CIN CIN @ CLE 18:26 4 49 12.3 1 12.9 14.9
16 Dec 2018 CIN OAK @ CIN 16:30 1 27 27 0 3.2 3.7
9 Dec 2018 CIN CIN @ LAC 21:26 3 37 12.3 0 5.2 6.7
2 Dec 2018 CIN DEN @ CIN 24:10 5 33 6.6 0 5.8 8.3
25 Nov 2018 CIN CLE @ CIN 35:20 6 39 6.5 0 6.9 9.9
18 Nov 2018 CIN CIN @ BAL 21:24 3 41 13.7 0 5.6 7.1
11 Nov 2018 CIN NO @ CIN 51:14 3 23 7.7 0 3.8 5.3
21 Oct 2018 CIN CIN @ KC 10:45 2 13 6.5 1 8.3 9.3
14 Oct 2018 CIN PIT @ CIN 28:21 6 54 9 0 8.4 11.4

I know, I wrote him up the last time in this exact space. It’s not my fault DraftKings gave us a free square for cash games. Uzomah might wind up being one of the highest owned players in cash games because frankly, he isn’t priced high enough for this matchup. The past two games have seen Uzomah either exceed 50 yards or find the end zone. That’s not terrible for consistency and now add in the glorious matchup. Only six teams have allowed more receptions by tight ends this season. None have allowed more yards and the Bucs are also tied for the most touchdowns given up. Uzomah has averaged 4.5 targets through the two games where he’s had the job basically to himself and that would be plenty to have a good game against Tampa. This Bengals offense is in a nice bounce back spot, at home and against a terrible defense. Uzomah might not be a primary option in the offense with all the other playmakers the Bengals have. Having said that, the price is too low and he us the safest tight end at that price range in one of the best possible spots.