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Week 8 NFL DFS Value Picks with Adam Strangis

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We’re back after a bye week of filling in on the Move the Chains article for Josh Collacchi, which didn’t do too badly. That article brought you Cam Newton, Adam Thielen, Todd Gurley and David Njoku among others. It did see its fair share of injuries last week so let’s wipe the slate clean and start fresh in Week 8! Some of the value plays could become chalk due to injuries that we know about or potential trades but at this juncture one thing is clear. That is to eat the value chalk because we have three games out of 10 that has an over/under of 54 or higher. There are three others right on the fringes of the 50 point mark. We need value this week to get as much access as possible to the games projected to score the most points so let’s jump right in!

 

Quarterback 

Next game:

DAL @ DET

Time:

Sun, 17th Nov, 12:00PM ET

Odds:

QB

Matthew Stafford

Detroit Lions

Salary: 7,900 6,000
FPPG: 21.45 23.30
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
DET @ OAK Sun, 3 Nov 2019, 3:05PM ET 7,900 25.84 6,800 29.84
NYG @ DET Sun, 27 Oct 2019, 1:00PM ET 7,700 24.38 6,100 27.38
MIN @ DET Sun, 20 Oct 2019, 1:00PM ET 7,300 29.56 5,200 32.56
DET @ GB Mon, 14 Oct 2019, 8:15PM ET 7,300 11.50 5,300 11.50
KC @ DET Sun, 29 Sep 2019, 1:00PM ET 6,900 23.44 5,500 24.44
DET @ PHI Sun, 22 Sep 2019, 1:00PM ET 6,900 12.14 5,500 12.14
LAC @ DET Sun, 15 Sep 2019, 1:00PM ET 7,000 17.10 5,200 17.10
DET @ ARI Sun, 8 Sep 2019, 4:25PM ET 6,600 27.60 5,400 31.60
DET @ GB Sun, 30 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,500 18.44 5,200 18.44
MIN @ DET Sun, 23 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,600 4.64 4,900 4.64
Season Team PaYd/G PaTD Pa QB Rating PaYd/Pa Avg
2019 DET 320.6 19 106 8.6
2018 DET 240.5 21 89.9 6.8
Date Team Game Score Comp/Att PaYd PaTD PaInt RuAtt RuYd RuTD FD FPts DK FPts
3 Nov 2019 DET DET @ OAK 24:31 26/41 406 3 1 3 6 0 25.84 29.84
27 Oct 2019 DET NYG @ DET 26:31 25/32 342 3 1 2 -3 0 24.38 27.38
20 Oct 2019 DET MIN @ DET 42:30 30/45 364 4 1 0 0 0 29.56 32.56
14 Oct 2019 DET DET @ GB 22:23 18/32 265 0 0 3 9 0 11.5 11.5
29 Sep 2019 DET KC @ DET 34:30 21/34 291 3 0 2 18 0 23.44 24.44
22 Sep 2019 DET DET @ PHI 27:24 18/32 201 1 0 3 1 0 12.14 12.14
15 Sep 2019 DET LAC @ DET 10:13 22/30 245 2 2 4 13 0 17.1 17.1
8 Sep 2019 DET DET @ ARI 27:27 27/45 385 3 0 3 22 0 27.6 31.6
30 Dec 2018 DET DET @ GB 31:0 20/32 266 2 0 2 -2 0 18.44 18.44
23 Dec 2018 DET MIN @ DET 27:9 18/32 116 0 0 0 0 0 4.64 4.64

Stafford may not have the attention of many coming off a game where he attempted just 22 passes but the price tag should certainly be an eye opener. He’s cheaper than Russell Wilson, Baker Mayfield and a slew of other big name quarterbacks. The Lions have averaged 36 passes a game so the 22 is wildly out of character. Stafford only needs 16.8  DK points to hit the magical 3x mark and that would mean right about 225 yards and two touchdown passes. The veteran signal caller is averaging 267 yards a contest so to go along with tow touchdowns so that mark seems very attainable for Stafford this week.

The Seahawks rank very well against the passing game, as they have given up just the third fewest yards per game. However, that might just be deceiving because they have faced exactly one accomplished passing game. They surrendered 321 passing yards to Jared Goff and the Rams. Other than that, they have faced the Broncos(gave up 329 to Case Keenum), Chicago, Dallas, Arizona and Oakland. Stafford can get it done in this matchup at home.

 

Running Back

Next game:

ARI @ SF

Time:

Sun, 17th Nov, 03:05PM ET

Odds:

RB

Raheem Mostert

San Francisco 49ers

Salary: 4,600 3,400
FPPG: 6.69 6.30
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
SEA @ SF Mon, 11 Nov 2019, 7:15PM ET 4,600 4.00 3,200 4.50
SF @ ARI Thu, 31 Oct 2019, 8:20PM ET 5,000 -0.20 3,200 -0.20
CAR @ SF Sun, 27 Oct 2019, 4:05PM ET 5,000 12.00 3,700 12.00
SF @ LAR Sun, 13 Oct 2019, 4:05PM ET 5,700 1.30 4,700 1.30
CLE @ SF Mon, 7 Oct 2019, 8:15PM ET 5,700 3.40 4,700 3.40
PIT @ SF Sun, 22 Sep 2019, 4:25PM ET 6,000 5.90 4,700 6.90
SF @ CIN Sun, 15 Sep 2019, 1:00PM ET 5,600 22.60 3,800 24.10
SF @ TB Sun, 8 Sep 2019, 4:25PM ET 4,500 4.50 3,700 5.00
OAK @ SF Thu, 1 Nov 2018, 8:20PM ET 5,600 14.60 3,900 14.60
SF @ ARI Sun, 28 Oct 2018, 4:25PM ET 5,600 1.80 3,800 1.80
Season Team RuAtt RuYd/G RuTD RuYd/R Avg RecR RecTa RecYd/G RecTD
2019 SF 61 37.2 1 5.5 5 7 8.3 1
2018 SF 34 29 1 7.7 6 7 2.8 0
Date Team Game Score RuAtt RuYd RuAvg RuTD Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
11 Nov 2019 SF SEA @ SF 27:24 6 28 4.7 0 1 7 7 0 4 4.5
31 Oct 2019 SF SF @ ARI 28:25 1 -2 -2 0 0 0 0 0 -0.2 -0.2
27 Oct 2019 SF CAR @ SF 13:51 9 60 6.7 1 0 0 0 0 12 12
13 Oct 2019 SF SF @ LAR 20:7 4 13 3.3 0 0 0 0 0 1.3 1.3
7 Oct 2019 SF CLE @ SF 3:31 7 34 4.9 0 0 0 0 0 3.4 3.4
22 Sep 2019 SF PIT @ SF 20:24 12 79 6.6 0 0 0 0 0 5.9 6.9
15 Sep 2019 SF SF @ CIN 41:17 13 83 6.4 0 3 68 22.7 1 22.6 24.1
8 Sep 2019 SF SF @ TB 31:17 9 40 4.4 0 1 0 0 0 4.5 5
1 Nov 2018 SF OAK @ SF 3:34 7 86 12.3 1 0 0 0 0 14.6 14.6
28 Oct 2018 SF SF @ ARI 15:18 2 18 9 0 0 0 0 0 1.8 1.8

If Matt Breida is out for this game, Mostert will likely become the chalk. Regardless of that factor, I plan on playing some Mostert this week. The Arizona Cardinal are bleeding points to fantasy running backs this year, giving up the most yards on the ground and the most amount of touchdowns. If that wasn’t enough, backs have kicked in 347 yards through the air on 35 receptions for two touchdowns. Mostert has still seen 11 and 12 touches the past two weeks and the game in Green Bay still saw Breida rush the ball 12 times himself. In a matchup as juicy as against Arizona, Mostert can pay off his small price tag on just 8-10 touches. Even if he turns into chalk, I’m happily heading towards him this week.

Next game:

CIN @ OAK

Time:

Sun, 17th Nov, 03:25PM ET

Odds:

RB

Jalen Richard

Oakland Raiders

Salary: 5,000 4,200
FPPG: 3.58 4.60
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
LAC @ OAK Thu, 7 Nov 2019, 7:20PM ET 5,000 6.30 3,600 8.30
DET @ OAK Sun, 3 Nov 2019, 3:05PM ET 5,000 8.30 3,900 9.80
OAK @ HOU Sun, 27 Oct 2019, 4:25PM ET 5,000 3.70 4,000 4.70
OAK @ GB Sun, 20 Oct 2019, 1:00PM ET 5,000 1.20 3,800 1.70
CHI @ OAK Sun, 6 Oct 2019, 1:00PM ET 5,000 4.20 3,700 5.20
OAK @ IND Sun, 29 Sep 2019, 1:00PM ET 5,000 2.30 4,000 2.80
OAK @ MIN Sun, 22 Sep 2019, 1:00PM ET 5,100 4.40 3,000 5.90
KC @ OAK Sun, 15 Sep 2019, 4:05PM ET 5,100 1.50 3,300 2.50
DEN @ OAK Mon, 9 Sep 2019, 10:20PM ET 5,100 0.30 3,600 0.30
OAK @ KC Sun, 30 Dec 2018, 4:25PM ET 4,800 2.80 4,200 3.80
Season Team RuAtt RuYd/G RuTD RuYd/R Avg RecR RecTa RecYd/G RecTD
2019 OAK 18 7.7 0 3.8 18 21 18.1 0
2018 OAK 55 16.2 1 4.7 68 81 37.9 0
Date Team Game Score RuAtt RuYd RuAvg RuTD Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
7 Nov 2019 OAK LAC @ OAK 24:26 2 0 0 0 4 43 10.8 0 6.3 8.3
3 Nov 2019 OAK DET @ OAK 24:31 2 12 6 0 3 56 18.7 0 8.3 9.8
27 Oct 2019 OAK OAK @ HOU 24:27 1 3 3 0 2 24 12 0 3.7 4.7
20 Oct 2019 OAK OAK @ GB 24:42 2 2 1 0 1 5 5 0 1.2 1.7
6 Oct 2019 OAK CHI @ OAK 21:24 2 14 7 0 2 18 9 0 4.2 5.2
29 Sep 2019 OAK OAK @ IND 31:24 4 17 4.3 0 1 1 1 0 2.3 2.8
22 Sep 2019 OAK OAK @ MIN 14:34 2 15 7.5 0 3 14 4.7 0 4.4 5.9
15 Sep 2019 OAK KC @ OAK 28:10 2 3 1.5 0 2 2 1 0 1.5 2.5
9 Sep 2019 OAK DEN @ OAK 16:24 1 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0.3 0.3
30 Dec 2018 OAK OAK @ KC 3:35 3 1 0.3 0 2 17 8.5 0 2.8 3.8

With the loss of Marshawn Lynch, it would appear that Richard might get a few more chances to touch the ball in the next few weeks. The Raiders are talking about Doug Martin being the main running back and that’s fine. I have no problem believing Jon Gruden will play the old and busted guy ahead of the younger guy who might actually have some upside. Even if Gruden insists on forcing Martin into our lives, Richard is the perfect running back play on DraftKings. He’s not going to get a ton of carries but he will see plenty of targets. There’s only been one game that he hasn’t seen at least five because the Raiders were leading that game for a significant portion of it. The Colts offense is seventh in points per game so this projects to either be a high scoring affair or having the Raiders trailing. Richard should be a pretty safe bet for five receptions and possibly around 40-50 yards. There’s a reasonable ceiling on top of that against a defense that has given up 49 receptions to running backs, tied for second most in football.

 

Wide Receiver 

Next game:

ARI @ SF

Time:

Sun, 17th Nov, 03:05PM ET

Odds:

WR

Christian Kirk

Arizona Cardinals

Salary: 6,200 5,700
FPPG: 13.03 16.70
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
ARI @ TB Sun, 10 Nov 2019, 12:00PM ET 5,700 34.80 5,200 40.80
SF @ ARI Thu, 31 Oct 2019, 8:20PM ET 5,800 2.60 4,800 3.60
ARI @ NO Sun, 27 Oct 2019, 1:00PM ET 5,600 13.80 4,700 17.80
SEA @ ARI Sun, 29 Sep 2019, 4:05PM ET 5,900 6.30 5,100 8.30
CAR @ ARI Sun, 22 Sep 2019, 4:05PM ET 5,900 10.90 5,000 15.90
ARI @ BAL Sun, 15 Sep 2019, 1:00PM ET 5,400 14.40 4,500 20.40
DET @ ARI Sun, 8 Sep 2019, 4:25PM ET 6,000 10.40 4,700 12.40
ARI @ GB Sun, 2 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,700 9.20 4,600 10.70
ARI @ LAC Sun, 25 Nov 2018, 4:05PM ET 5,600 6.10 4,500 8.10
OAK @ ARI Sun, 18 Nov 2018, 4:05PM ET 5,100 15.20 4,700 16.70
Season Team ReR ReTa ReYd ReYd/G ReTD Yd/Ta
2019 ARI 40 62 467 66.7 3 7.53
2018 ARI 43 68 590 49.2 3 8.68
Date Team Game Score Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
10 Nov 2019 ARI ARI @ TB 27:30 6 138 23 3 34.8 40.8
31 Oct 2019 ARI SF @ ARI 28:25 2 8 4 0 2.6 3.6
27 Oct 2019 ARI ARI @ NO 9:31 8 79 9.9 0 13.8 17.8
29 Sep 2019 ARI SEA @ ARI 27:10 4 37 9.3 0 6.3 8.3
22 Sep 2019 ARI CAR @ ARI 38:20 10 59 5.9 0 10.9 15.9
15 Sep 2019 ARI ARI @ BAL 17:23 6 114 19 0 14.4 20.4
8 Sep 2019 ARI DET @ ARI 27:27 4 32 8 0 10.4 12.4
2 Dec 2018 ARI ARI @ GB 20:17 3 54 18 0 9.2 10.7
25 Nov 2018 ARI ARI @ LAC 10:45 4 41 10.3 0 6.1 8.1
18 Nov 2018 ARI OAK @ ARI 23:21 3 77 25.7 1 15.2 16.7

Since Josh Rosen became the starter for the Cardinals in Week 4, Kirk has been on a 16 game pace for 64 receptions and 988 yards. That’s a pretty solid pace and Kirk has already gotten to the division rivals in the first game for a career high 18.0 DK points. San Francisco might not have Richard Sherman in this game but even if they do, Kirk is commanding a target share of 18 percent. Rosen may not be the best quarterback in the league but the Arizona offense doesn’t have a ton of options. Larry Fitzgerald has been hurt and ineffective this season. I’m not buying his “big” game last week because without the touchdown, he would have only score eight points. Kirk is quickly becoming the receiver to play in this offense and he hasn’t been priced like it.

Next game:

GB @ SF

Time:

Sun, 24th Nov, 07:20PM ET

Odds:

WR

Geronimo Allison

Green Bay Packers

Salary: 5,300 3,900
FPPG: 5.15 5.80
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
CAR @ GB Sun, 10 Nov 2019, 3:25PM ET 5,300 2.10 3,900 3.60
GB @ LAC Sun, 3 Nov 2019, 3:25PM ET 5,400 3.10 4,200 4.10
GB @ KC Sun, 27 Oct 2019, 8:20PM ET 5,400 1.20 4,000 1.70
OAK @ GB Sun, 20 Oct 2019, 1:00PM ET 5,700 5.30 4,900 7.30
DET @ GB Mon, 14 Oct 2019, 8:15PM ET 5,500 5.50 5,000 7.00
GB @ DAL Sun, 6 Oct 2019, 4:25PM ET 5,600 3.80 5,000 4.80
PHI @ GB Thu, 26 Sep 2019, 8:20PM ET 4,900 13.40 4,500 14.90
DEN @ GB Sun, 22 Sep 2019, 1:00PM ET 5,200 0.40 4,800 0.90
MIN @ GB Sun, 15 Sep 2019, 1:00PM ET 5,100 8.50 4,400 11.50
GB @ LAR Sun, 28 Oct 2018, 4:25PM ET 5,700 1.90 5,000 2.40
Season Team ReR ReTa ReYd ReYd/G ReTD Yd/Ta
2019 GB 23 37 211 21.1 2 5.70
2018 GB 20 30 303 60.6 2 10.10
Date Team Game Score Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
10 Nov 2019 GB CAR @ GB 16:24 3 6 2 0 2.1 3.6
3 Nov 2019 GB GB @ LAC 11:26 2 21 10.5 0 3.1 4.1
27 Oct 2019 GB GB @ KC 31:24 1 7 7 0 1.2 1.7
20 Oct 2019 GB OAK @ GB 24:42 4 33 8.3 0 5.3 7.3
14 Oct 2019 GB DET @ GB 22:23 3 40 13.3 0 5.5 7
6 Oct 2019 GB GB @ DAL 34:24 2 28 14 0 3.8 4.8
26 Sep 2019 GB PHI @ GB 34:27 3 52 17.3 1 13.4 14.9
22 Sep 2019 GB DEN @ GB 16:27 1 -1 -1 0 0.4 0.9
15 Sep 2019 GB MIN @ GB 16:21 4 25 6.3 1 8.5 11.5
28 Oct 2018 GB GB @ LAR 27:29 1 14 14 0 1.9 2.4

I always loved Allison when he was playing and this is a great way to get a piece of a game that is pushing 60 points for the over/under. He did only get in a limited practice on Wednesday so we need to make sure he’s fully up to speed but the expectation is he’ll be in this week. Allison averaged a little over seven targets a game and never fell below 64 yards in any healthy game. I’m not concerned with Marcus Peters on Davante Adams but that doesn’t mean that Allison won’t see plenty of opportunities in this game. With two touchdowns to his name, the trust of Aaron Rodgers and the need to score a ton of points, Allison should have a floor of 15 DK points needed for his price this week.

Note – Courtland Sutton becomes a very chalky and appealing option if one of Emmanuel Sanders or Demaryius Thomas gets traded away from the Denver Broncos 

 

Tight End 

Next game:

CIN @ OAK

Time:

Sun, 17th Nov, 03:25PM ET

Odds:

TE

C.J. Uzomah

Cincinnati Bengals

Salary: 4,100 2,500
FPPG: 2.62 2.20
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
CIN @ LAR Sun, 27 Oct 2019, 1:00PM ET 4,300 0.90 2,500 1.40
CIN @ BAL Sun, 13 Oct 2019, 1:00PM ET 4,000 3.60 2,600 4.60
ARI @ CIN Sun, 6 Oct 2019, 1:00PM ET 4,000 2.60 2,600 3.60
CIN @ PIT Mon, 30 Sep 2019, 8:15PM ET 4,000 0 2,600 0
CIN @ BUF Sun, 22 Sep 2019, 1:00PM ET 4,000 0 2,700 0
CIN @ SEA Sun, 8 Sep 2019, 4:05PM ET 4,300 8.60 2,600 10.60
CIN @ PIT Sun, 30 Dec 2018, 4:25PM ET 5,500 1.10 3,500 1.60
CIN @ CLE Sun, 23 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,000 12.90 3,300 14.90
OAK @ CIN Sun, 16 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,000 3.20 3,600 3.70
CIN @ LAC Sun, 9 Dec 2018, 4:05PM ET 5,200 5.20 3,500 6.70
Season Team ReR ReTa ReYd ReYd/G ReTD Yd/Ta
2019 CIN 9 14 112 12.4 0 8.00
2019 LAR 43 64 439 27.4 3 6.86
2018 CIN 43 64 439 27.4 3 6.86
Date Team Game Score Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
27 Oct 2019 CIN CIN @ LAR 10:24 1 4 4 0 0.9 1.4
13 Oct 2019 CIN CIN @ BAL 17:23 2 26 13 0 3.6 4.6
6 Oct 2019 CIN ARI @ CIN 26:23 2 16 8 0 2.6 3.6
30 Sep 2019 CIN CIN @ PIT 3:27 0 0 0 0 0 0
22 Sep 2019 CIN CIN @ BUF 17:21 0 0 0 0 0 0
8 Sep 2019 CIN CIN @ SEA 20:21 4 66 16.5 0 8.6 10.6
30 Dec 2018 CIN CIN @ PIT 13:16 1 6 6 0 1.1 1.6
23 Dec 2018 CIN CIN @ CLE 18:26 4 49 12.3 1 12.9 14.9
16 Dec 2018 CIN OAK @ CIN 16:30 1 27 27 0 3.2 3.7
9 Dec 2018 CIN CIN @ LAC 21:26 3 37 12.3 0 5.2 6.7

I know, I wrote him up the last time in this exact space. It’s not my fault DraftKings gave us a free square for cash games. Uzomah might wind up being one of the highest owned players in cash games because frankly, he isn’t priced high enough for this matchup. The past two games have seen Uzomah either exceed 50 yards or find the end zone. That’s not terrible for consistency and now add in the glorious matchup. Only six teams have allowed more receptions by tight ends this season. None have allowed more yards and the Bucs are also tied for the most touchdowns given up. Uzomah has averaged 4.5 targets through the two games where he’s had the job basically to himself and that would be plenty to have a good game against Tampa. This Bengals offense is in a nice bounce back spot, at home and against a terrible defense. Uzomah might not be a primary option in the offense with all the other playmakers the Bengals have. Having said that, the price is too low and he us the safest tight end at that price range in one of the best possible spots.