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Week 6 NFL DFS Value Picks with Adam Strangis

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Welcome into Week 6 of the NFL DFS value picks and I’ll be honest, I’m hoping for a better week. It was a pretty rough go in this space last week in part due to poor performances and in part because some coaches are just not smart. Hopefully the RotoCurve Podcast led you in the right direction to make you some #Buckies last week. Let’s get through who the picks were last week and put it all out there before we dive into Week 6.

Derek Carr, QB – 14.2 DK points – The yardage wasn’t terrible but a bad red zone interception cost Carr a chance to really fully pay off the price tag. 

Aaron Jones, RB –      – The score was out of hand, but there’s legitimately no reason for Jones to not see a second half touch. That’s just bad coaching. 

Corey Grant, RB – 0.8 DK points – It’s hard to gauge how the game would have gone since Grant was injured early. 

Taywan Taylor, WR – 5.0 DK points – Taylor halted the string of secondary receivers dicing up the Bills defense and the Titans were a disaster in this game. 

Marvin Jones, WR – 7.8 DK points – This was one of the more tilting plays of the week because he lost a touchdown and a big play due to penalty and dropped a tough catch that would have been a touchdown. 

Austin Hooper, TE – 16.7 DK points – Hey, at least someone paid off in a major way! 

As Bill Belichick once said, we’re onto Week 6.

 

Quarterback 

Next game:

NO @ TB

Time:

Sun, 17th Nov, 12:00PM ET

Odds:

QB

Jameis Winston

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Salary: 7,600 6,500
FPPG: 19.61 22.10
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
ARI @ TB Sun, 10 Nov 2019, 12:00PM ET 7,900 20.32 6,800 23.32
TB @ SEA Sun, 3 Nov 2019, 3:05PM ET 7,500 20.20 6,100 24.20
TB @ TEN Sun, 27 Oct 2019, 1:00PM ET 7,400 21.34 5,900 26.34
CAR @ TB Sun, 13 Oct 2019, 9:30AM ET 7,600 17.10 5,900 21.10
TB @ NO Sun, 6 Oct 2019, 1:00PM ET 7,600 17.46 6,200 17.46
TB @ LAR Sun, 29 Sep 2019, 4:05PM ET 7,500 30.30 5,700 33.30
NYG @ TB Sun, 22 Sep 2019, 4:05PM ET 7,300 26.50 5,400 29.50
TB @ CAR Thu, 12 Sep 2019, 8:20PM ET 7,300 13.22 5,900 13.22
SF @ TB Sun, 8 Sep 2019, 4:25PM ET 7,500 10.06 6,600 10.06
ATL @ TB Sun, 30 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 7,600 31.10 6,100 34.10
Season Team PaYd/G PaTD Pa QB Rating PaYd/Pa Avg
2019 TB 322.7 17 83.8 7.8
2018 TB 297.5 19 90.2 7.9
Date Team Game Score Comp/Att PaYd PaTD PaInt RuAtt RuYd RuTD FD FPts DK FPts
10 Nov 2019 TB ARI @ TB 27:30 30/48 358 1 2 3 40 0 20.32 23.32
3 Nov 2019 TB TB @ SEA 34:40 29/44 335 2 0 2 8 0 20.2 24.2
27 Oct 2019 TB TB @ TEN 23:27 21/43 301 2 2 8 53 0 21.34 26.34
13 Oct 2019 TB CAR @ TB 37:26 30/54 400 1 5 1 1 0 17.1 21.1
6 Oct 2019 TB TB @ NO 24:31 15/27 204 2 0 3 13 0 17.46 17.46
29 Sep 2019 TB TB @ LAR 55:40 28/41 385 4 1 1 -1 0 30.3 33.3
22 Sep 2019 TB NYG @ TB 32:31 23/37 380 3 1 4 3 0 26.5 29.5
12 Sep 2019 TB TB @ CAR 20:14 16/25 208 1 0 4 9 0 13.22 13.22
8 Sep 2019 TB SF @ TB 31:17 20/36 194 1 3 5 13 0 10.06 10.06
30 Dec 2018 TB ATL @ TB 34:32 22/35 345 4 1 2 23 0 31.1 34.1

Winston drops back into the starting role for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and he couldn’t ask for a better matchup to get his feet wet. Not only did he have the bye week to get some time back into the offense, but the Bucs go to the fast track of the dome in Atlanta and get the Falcons defense. They’ve given up the third most points to quarterbacks and the eighth most yards. Last season, Winston was on a 5,000 yard pace when he was playing and there’s an argument to be made that the passing weapons around him are better. Chris Godwin has taken a step forward(it would be nice if the Bucs let him on the field more) and the chemistry between Winston and DeSean Jackson is hopefully better as well. In addition the Falcons have given up the second most passing touchdowns and the Bucs are dead last in rushing yards. Granted, they’ve had a bye week but they’re only 30th from a yards per game perspective. They need to do their damage through the air and Winston is too cheap for this spot.

 

Running Back 

Next game:

SEA @ PHI

Time:

Sun, 24th Nov, 12:00PM ET

Odds:

RB

Chris Carson

Seattle Seahawks

Salary: 7,600 6,700
FPPG: 14.23 17.30
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
SEA @ SF Mon, 11 Nov 2019, 7:15PM ET 7,600 17.60 6,700 19.10
TB @ SEA Sun, 3 Nov 2019, 3:05PM ET 8,200 12.30 7,200 17.30
SEA @ ATL Sun, 27 Oct 2019, 1:00PM ET 8,000 15.00 7,000 15.00
BAL @ SEA Sun, 20 Oct 2019, 4:25PM ET 7,600 8.90 6,500 10.40
SEA @ CLE Sun, 13 Oct 2019, 1:00PM ET 7,200 23.90 6,000 28.90
LAR @ SEA Thu, 3 Oct 2019, 8:20PM ET 6,900 18.80 6,000 22.30
SEA @ ARI Sun, 29 Sep 2019, 4:05PM ET 7,000 16.50 5,700 21.50
NO @ SEA Sun, 22 Sep 2019, 4:25PM ET 7,000 3.60 5,900 5.10
SEA @ PIT Sun, 15 Sep 2019, 1:00PM ET 7,400 8.20 6,400 10.70
CIN @ SEA Sun, 8 Sep 2019, 4:05PM ET 6,600 21.10 5,700 25.10
Season Team RuAtt RuYd/G RuTD RuYd/R Avg RecR RecTa RecYd/G RecTD
2019 SEA 200 85.3 4 4.3 27 34 18.9 2
2018 SEA 247 82.2 9 4.7 20 24 11.6 0
Date Team Game Score RuAtt RuYd RuAvg RuTD Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
11 Nov 2019 SEA SEA @ SF 27:24 25 89 3.6 1 3 12 4 0 17.6 19.1
3 Nov 2019 SEA TB @ SEA 34:40 16 105 6.6 0 2 28 14 0 12.3 17.3
27 Oct 2019 SEA SEA @ ATL 27:20 20 90 4.5 1 0 0 0 0 15 15
20 Oct 2019 SEA BAL @ SEA 30:16 21 65 3.1 0 3 9 3 0 8.9 10.4
13 Oct 2019 SEA SEA @ CLE 32:28 24 124 5.2 1 4 35 8.8 0 23.9 28.9
3 Oct 2019 SEA LAR @ SEA 29:30 27 118 4.4 0 1 5 5 1 18.8 22.3
29 Sep 2019 SEA SEA @ ARI 27:10 22 104 4.7 0 4 41 10.3 0 16.5 21.5
22 Sep 2019 SEA NO @ SEA 33:27 15 53 3.5 0 1 -2 -2 0 3.6 5.1
15 Sep 2019 SEA SEA @ PIT 28:26 15 60 4 0 3 27 9 0 8.2 10.7
8 Sep 2019 SEA CIN @ SEA 20:21 15 46 3.1 1 6 35 5.8 1 21.1 25.1

Carson missed a game and Mike Davis played well without him, leading some to think there would be another committee forming in Seattle. That does appear to be true since both Seahawks backs got double digit carries but Carson was the lead dog of the duo. Even with a split, Seattle is fifth in rushing attempts this year. It seems a little backwards to be taking the ball out of the hands of Russell Wilson but that’s exactly what is happening in Seattle. They actually have one more rushing attempt this year than passing attempts so there is work to go around. London games can be a little weird and I try not to get too involved with them but I’m willing to make an exception here. The running game should make the flight across the ocean since the Raiders are allowing the fifth most rushing yards to go along with the fifth most yards per attempt. Carson also saw red zone work last week so the split does extend to that area of the field. Seattle is back to their old tricks and we should take advantage of the savings.

Next game:

NYJ @ WSH

Time:

Sun, 17th Nov, 12:00PM ET

Odds:

RB

Bilal Powell

NY Jets

Salary: 4,500 3,700
FPPG: 0.90 0.80
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
NYG @ NYJ Sun, 10 Nov 2019, 12:00PM ET 4,500 1.50 3,000 1.50
NYJ @ MIA Sun, 3 Nov 2019, 12:00PM ET 4,500 1.60 3,000 1.60
NYJ @ JAC Sun, 27 Oct 2019, 1:00PM ET 4,500 1.10 3,000 1.10
NE @ NYJ Mon, 21 Oct 2019, 8:15PM ET 4,500 0.30 3,400 0.30
DAL @ NYJ Sun, 13 Oct 2019, 4:25PM ET 4,500 0.50 3,100 0.50
NYJ @ PHI Sun, 6 Oct 2019, 1:00PM ET 4,500 0.40 3,000 0.40
MIN @ NYJ Sun, 21 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,600 3.00 4,200 3.50
IND @ NYJ Sun, 14 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,800 5.90 4,500 5.90
DEN @ NYJ Sun, 7 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,700 7.90 4,400 8.90
NYJ @ JAC Sun, 30 Sep 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,900 7.20 3,800 9.20
Season Team RuAtt RuYd/G RuTD RuYd/R Avg RecR RecTa RecYd/G RecTD
2019 NYJ 16 7.7 0 3.4 0 0 0 0
2018 NYJ 80 49 0 4.3 11 18 15.7 1
Date Team Game Score RuAtt RuYd RuAvg RuTD Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
10 Nov 2019 NYJ NYG @ NYJ 27:34 7 15 2.1 0 0 0 0 0 1.5 1.5
3 Nov 2019 NYJ NYJ @ MIA 18:26 2 16 8 0 0 0 0 0 1.6 1.6
27 Oct 2019 NYJ NYJ @ JAC 15:29 4 11 2.8 0 0 0 0 0 1.1 1.1
21 Oct 2019 NYJ NE @ NYJ 33:0 1 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0.3 0.3
13 Oct 2019 NYJ DAL @ NYJ 22:24 1 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0.5 0.5
6 Oct 2019 NYJ NYJ @ PHI 6:31 1 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0.4 0.4
21 Oct 2018 NYJ MIN @ NYJ 37:17 5 20 4 0 1 5 5 0 3 3.5
14 Oct 2018 NYJ IND @ NYJ 34:42 16 59 3.7 0 0 0 0 0 5.9 5.9
7 Oct 2018 NYJ DEN @ NYJ 16:34 20 99 4.9 0 0 0 0 0 7.9 8.9
30 Sep 2018 NYJ NYJ @ JAC 12:31 8 26 3.3 0 4 26 6.5 0 7.2 9.2

It’s not a typical situation that I would want to attack since Powell is splitting work with Isaiah Crowell but after watching the Colts get ripped apart by James White last week, Powell might not be a bad way to go here. White only saw two rushing attempts but caught seven passes for 77 yards and a touchdown. Nobody is going to confuse the Jets offense with Patriots offense any time soon but the role Powell plays is similar to what White does in New England. What’s nice is Powell is going to see way more carries than White saw last week so it should help raise his floor. He’s averaging 15 touches a game and I think the Jets might utilize him more in the passing game than they have been. 10 receptions is low for Powell and he gets almost the same chances in the red zone that Crowell does with a 10-9 split. His price is very nice across the industry.

 

Wide Receiver 

Next game:

NE @ PHI

Time:

Sun, 17th Nov, 03:25PM ET

Odds:

WR

Mohamed Sanu

New England Patriots

Salary: 5,800 5,100
FPPG: 8.50 11.00
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
NE @ BAL Sun, 3 Nov 2019, 7:20PM ET 5,100 19.10 4,500 24.10
CLE @ NE Sun, 27 Oct 2019, 4:25PM ET 5,100 3.30 4,000 4.30
LAR @ ATL Sun, 20 Oct 2019, 1:00PM ET 5,500 0.80 4,600 1.30
ATL @ ARI Sun, 13 Oct 2019, 4:05PM ET 6,000 4.40 4,500 5.90
ATL @ HOU Sun, 6 Oct 2019, 1:00PM ET 5,900 12.80 4,200 15.30
TEN @ ATL Sun, 29 Sep 2019, 1:00PM ET 5,700 13.60 4,100 18.10
ATL @ IND Sun, 22 Sep 2019, 1:00PM ET 5,300 10.70 3,900 13.70
PHI @ ATL Sun, 15 Sep 2019, 8:20PM ET 5,300 3.60 4,500 5.60
ATL @ MIN Sun, 8 Sep 2019, 1:00PM ET 5,300 8.20 4,600 10.70
ATL @ TB Sun, 30 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,800 16.90 4,800 20.40
Season Team ReR ReTa ReYd ReYd/G ReTD Yd/Ta
2019 NE 12 19 104 52 1 5.47
2019 ATL 33 42 313 44.7 1 7.45
2018 ATL 66 94 838 52.4 4 8.91
Date Team Game Score Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
3 Nov 2019 NE NE @ BAL 20:37 10 81 8.1 1 19.1 24.1
27 Oct 2019 NE CLE @ NE 13:27 2 23 11.5 0 3.3 4.3
20 Oct 2019 ATL LAR @ ATL 37:10 1 3 3 0 0.8 1.3
13 Oct 2019 ATL ATL @ ARI 33:34 3 29 9.7 0 4.4 5.9
6 Oct 2019 ATL ATL @ HOU 32:53 5 42 8.4 1 12.8 15.3
29 Sep 2019 ATL TEN @ ATL 24:10 9 91 10.1 0 13.6 18.1
22 Sep 2019 ATL ATL @ IND 24:27 6 75 12.5 0 10.7 13.7
15 Sep 2019 ATL PHI @ ATL 20:24 4 16 4 0 3.6 5.6
8 Sep 2019 ATL ATL @ MIN 12:28 5 57 11.4 0 8.2 10.7
30 Dec 2018 ATL ATL @ TB 34:32 7 90 12.9 0 16.9 20.4

One of the players that did pay off for me last week was Sanu and I’m going right back to the well. He’s quietly gone 14/220/2 these past three weeks and now he gets the Swiss cheese that is the Buccaneers defense. Despite having the bye week, Tampa has given up the fourth most yards, the most yards per game, tied for most touchdowns surrendered and are giving up a passer rating of 130.5, worst in football. Provided Matt Ryan is healthy, he should be able to do pretty much whatever he wants in this game. While Julio Jones should dominate this game, there will also be enough left over for Sanu to get some work in as well. It’s always nice to know he’s not going to see any special coverage and Ryan will be able to find him on their home turf.

Next game:

HOU @ BAL

Time:

Sun, 17th Nov, 12:00PM ET

Odds:

WR

Keke Coutee

Houston Texans

Salary: 4,800 3,500
FPPG: 5.86 6.00
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
HOU @ IND Sun, 20 Oct 2019, 1:00PM ET 4,900 10.40 3,600 11.90
HOU @ KC Sun, 13 Oct 2019, 1:00PM ET 4,900 5.90 3,500 7.90
ATL @ HOU Sun, 6 Oct 2019, 1:00PM ET 4,500 8.70 3,400 10.20
CAR @ HOU Sun, 29 Sep 2019, 1:00PM ET 4,500 2.60 3,100 3.10
JAC @ HOU Sun, 15 Sep 2019, 1:00PM ET 5,400 1.70 3,800 2.70
IND @ HOU Sat, 5 Jan 2019, 4:35PM ET 5,600 22.50 4,000 31.00
TEN @ HOU Mon, 26 Nov 2018, 8:15PM ET 5,600 2.40 4,600 3.40
HOU @ WSH Sun, 18 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,600 10.20 4,500 12.70
HOU @ JAC Sun, 21 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,600 0.80 4,300 1.30
BUF @ HOU Sun, 14 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,700 4.80 4,600 6.30
Season Team ReR ReTa ReYd ReYd/G ReTD Yd/Ta
2019 HOU 13 22 154 25.7 0 7.00
2018 HOU 28 41 287 47.8 1 7.00
Date Team Game Score Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
20 Oct 2019 HOU HOU @ IND 23:30 3 25 8.3 0 10.4 11.9
13 Oct 2019 HOU HOU @ KC 31:24 4 39 9.8 0 5.9 7.9
6 Oct 2019 HOU ATL @ HOU 32:53 3 72 24 0 8.7 10.2
29 Sep 2019 HOU CAR @ HOU 16:10 1 11 11 0 2.6 3.1
15 Sep 2019 HOU JAC @ HOU 12:13 2 7 3.5 0 1.7 2.7
5 Jan 2019 HOU IND @ HOU 21:7 11 110 10 1 22.5 31
26 Nov 2018 HOU TEN @ HOU 17:34 2 14 7 0 2.4 3.4
18 Nov 2018 HOU HOU @ WSH 23:21 5 77 15.4 0 10.2 12.7
21 Oct 2018 HOU HOU @ JAC 20:7 1 3 3 0 0.8 1.3
14 Oct 2018 HOU BUF @ HOU 13:20 3 33 11 0 4.8 6.3

Coutee has walked into the offense and hit the ground running. The first week was injury related, as he stepped in for Will Fuller and saw double digit targets. That seemed like it wouldn’t continue and while he didn’t see double digit targets this past game, he still saw seven and found the end zone. Fuller played over 90 percent of the snaps in an overtime game so I don’t think his hamstring injury was much of an issue. Coutee is playing a very important role in the offense because Fuller and DeAndre Hopkins are seeing targets on average of at last 12.8 yards. When those plays aren’t there, Deshaun Watson can turn to Coutee and his 5.0 aDOT as a safety valve. Watson sorely needs that type of player in the offense because he has to stop taking so many hits. This element is new to the offense and Watson will be looking to take advantage of it since Hopkins will see Tre White on the other side of him. Coutee and Fuller should both do some work in this one.

 

Tight End

Next game:

CIN @ OAK

Time:

Sun, 17th Nov, 03:25PM ET

Odds:

TE

C.J. Uzomah

Cincinnati Bengals

Salary: 4,100 2,500
FPPG: 2.62 2.20
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
CIN @ LAR Sun, 27 Oct 2019, 1:00PM ET 4,300 0.90 2,500 1.40
CIN @ BAL Sun, 13 Oct 2019, 1:00PM ET 4,000 3.60 2,600 4.60
ARI @ CIN Sun, 6 Oct 2019, 1:00PM ET 4,000 2.60 2,600 3.60
CIN @ PIT Mon, 30 Sep 2019, 8:15PM ET 4,000 0 2,600 0
CIN @ BUF Sun, 22 Sep 2019, 1:00PM ET 4,000 0 2,700 0
CIN @ SEA Sun, 8 Sep 2019, 4:05PM ET 4,300 8.60 2,600 10.60
CIN @ PIT Sun, 30 Dec 2018, 4:25PM ET 5,500 1.10 3,500 1.60
CIN @ CLE Sun, 23 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,000 12.90 3,300 14.90
OAK @ CIN Sun, 16 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,000 3.20 3,600 3.70
CIN @ LAC Sun, 9 Dec 2018, 4:05PM ET 5,200 5.20 3,500 6.70
Season Team ReR ReTa ReYd ReYd/G ReTD Yd/Ta
2019 LAR 43 64 439 27.4 3 6.86
2019 CIN 9 14 112 12.4 0 8.00
2018 CIN 43 64 439 27.4 3 6.86
Date Team Game Score Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
27 Oct 2019 CIN CIN @ LAR 10:24 1 4 4 0 0.9 1.4
13 Oct 2019 CIN CIN @ BAL 17:23 2 26 13 0 3.6 4.6
6 Oct 2019 CIN ARI @ CIN 26:23 2 16 8 0 2.6 3.6
30 Sep 2019 CIN CIN @ PIT 3:27 0 0 0 0 0 0
22 Sep 2019 CIN CIN @ BUF 17:21 0 0 0 0 0 0
8 Sep 2019 CIN CIN @ SEA 20:21 4 66 16.5 0 8.6 10.6
30 Dec 2018 CIN CIN @ PIT 13:16 1 6 6 0 1.1 1.6
23 Dec 2018 CIN CIN @ CLE 18:26 4 49 12.3 1 12.9 14.9
16 Dec 2018 CIN OAK @ CIN 16:30 1 27 27 0 3.2 3.7
9 Dec 2018 CIN CIN @ LAC 21:26 3 37 12.3 0 5.2 6.7

I would be a little more hesitant if Tyler Kroft plays in this game but if he doesn’t Uzomah is going to be a big time target in this game. Granted, that hasn’t happened yet during the season but the Steelers are tied for last in points given up to the tight end position. Tyler Boyd will see Mike Hilton in the slot for a lot of the game and Hilton is a very good corner. Joe Haden will likely try to contain A.J. Green as much as he can so Uzomah could turn into a nice target for Andy Dalton to try and avoid the pass rush of the Steelers, who have quietly climbed to second in sacks this year.


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