Week 6 NFL DFS Value Picks with Adam Strangis

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Welcome into Week 6 of the NFL DFS value picks and I’ll be honest, I’m hoping for a better week. It was a pretty rough go in this space last week in part due to poor performances and in part because some coaches are just not smart. Hopefully the RotoCurve Podcast led you in the right direction to make you some #Buckies last week. Let’s get through who the picks were last week and put it all out there before we dive into Week 6.

Derek Carr, QB – 14.2 DK points – The yardage wasn’t terrible but a bad red zone interception cost Carr a chance to really fully pay off the price tag. 

Aaron Jones, RB –      – The score was out of hand, but there’s legitimately no reason for Jones to not see a second half touch. That’s just bad coaching. 

Corey Grant, RB – 0.8 DK points – It’s hard to gauge how the game would have gone since Grant was injured early. 

Taywan Taylor, WR – 5.0 DK points – Taylor halted the string of secondary receivers dicing up the Bills defense and the Titans were a disaster in this game. 

Marvin Jones, WR – 7.8 DK points – This was one of the more tilting plays of the week because he lost a touchdown and a big play due to penalty and dropped a tough catch that would have been a touchdown. 

Austin Hooper, TE – 16.7 DK points – Hey, at least someone paid off in a major way! 

As Bill Belichick once said, we’re onto Week 6.

 

Quarterback 

Next game:

TB @ BAL

Time:

Sun, 16th Dec, 01:00PM ET

Odds:

TB +7.5 / O/U 46.5

QB

Jameis Winston

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Salary: 7,000 5,600
FPPG: 19.82 21.10
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
NO @ TB Sun, 9 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 7,700 20.22 6,200 20.22
CAR @ TB Sun, 2 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 7,500 22.76 6,000 22.76
SF @ TB Sun, 25 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 7,500 22.88 6,000 25.88
TB @ NYG Sun, 18 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 7,100 16.56 5,600 16.56
TB @ CIN Sun, 28 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 7,800 12.84 6,000 12.84
CLE @ TB Sun, 21 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 7,800 22.10 6,300 26.10
TB @ ATL Sun, 14 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 7,400 32.90 5,800 35.90
TB @ CHI Sun, 30 Sep 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,200 8.50 5,100 8.50
NO @ TB Sun, 31 Dec 2017, 4:25PM ET N/a 26.72 N/a 29.72
TB @ CAR Sun, 24 Dec 2017, 1:00PM ET N/a 13.28 N/a 19.28
Season Team PaYd/G PaTD Pa QB Rating PaYd/Pa Avg
2018 TB 252.3 14 88.1 8
2017 TB 253.6 19 92.2 7.9
Date Team Game Score Comp/Att PaYd PaTD PaInt RuAtt RuYd RuTD FD FPts DK FPts
9 Dec 2018 TB NO @ TB 28:14 18/38 213 2 1 5 47 0 20.22 20.22
2 Dec 2018 TB CAR @ TB 17:24 20/30 249 2 0 5 48 0 22.76 22.76
25 Nov 2018 TB SF @ TB 9:27 29/38 312 2 0 7 24 0 22.88 25.88
18 Nov 2018 TB TB @ NYG 35:38 12/16 199 2 1 5 16 0 16.56 16.56
28 Oct 2018 TB TB @ CIN 34:37 18/35 276 1 4 3 18 0 12.84 12.84
21 Oct 2018 TB CLE @ TB 23:26 32/52 365 0 2 10 55 1 22.1 26.1
14 Oct 2018 TB TB @ ATL 29:34 30/41 395 4 2 5 31 0 32.9 35.9
30 Sep 2018 TB TB @ CHI 10:48 16/20 145 1 2 1 7 0 8.5 8.5
31 Dec 2017 TB NO @ TB 24:31 28/51 363 1 3 5 32 1 26.72 29.72
24 Dec 2017 TB TB @ CAR 19:22 21/27 367 1 0 3 6 0 13.28 19.28

Winston drops back into the starting role for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and he couldn’t ask for a better matchup to get his feet wet. Not only did he have the bye week to get some time back into the offense, but the Bucs go to the fast track of the dome in Atlanta and get the Falcons defense. They’ve given up the third most points to quarterbacks and the eighth most yards. Last season, Winston was on a 5,000 yard pace when he was playing and there’s an argument to be made that the passing weapons around him are better. Chris Godwin has taken a step forward(it would be nice if the Bucs let him on the field more) and the chemistry between Winston and DeSean Jackson is hopefully better as well. In addition the Falcons have given up the second most passing touchdowns and the Bucs are dead last in rushing yards. Granted, they’ve had a bye week but they’re only 30th from a yards per game perspective. They need to do their damage through the air and Winston is too cheap for this spot.

 

Running Back 

Next game:

SEA @ SF

Time:

Sun, 16th Dec, 04:05PM ET

Odds:

SEA -4.0 / O/U 44.0

RB

Chris Carson

Seattle Seahawks

Salary: 6,300 5,600
FPPG: 11.33 12.90
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
MIN @ SEA Mon, 10 Dec 2018, 8:15PM ET 6,300 15.00 4,900 15.00
SF @ SEA Sun, 2 Dec 2018, 4:25PM ET 6,300 12.30 5,200 13.80
SEA @ CAR Sun, 25 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,400 13.30 4,600 14.30
GB @ SEA Thu, 15 Nov 2018, 8:20PM ET 6,200 12.30 4,400 13.30
LAC @ SEA Sun, 4 Nov 2018, 4:05PM ET 6,500 4.00 4,700 4.00
SEA @ DET Sun, 28 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,300 19.40 4,300 23.40
SEA @ OAK Sun, 14 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,400 5.90 4,400 5.90
LAR @ SEA Sun, 7 Oct 2018, 4:25PM ET 6,000 13.20 4,100 16.70
DAL @ SEA Sun, 23 Sep 2018, 4:25PM ET 6,400 19.40 4,300 23.40
SEA @ CHI Mon, 17 Sep 2018, 8:15PM ET 5,900 2.40 4,100 2.40
Season Team RuAtt RuYd/G RuTD RuYd/R Avg RecR RecTa RecYd/G RecTD
2018 SEA 179 72.2 5 4.4 13 17 11.5 0
2017 SEA 49 52 0 4.2 7 8 14.8 1
Date Team Game Score RuAtt RuYd RuAvg RuTD Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
10 Dec 2018 SEA MIN @ SEA 7:21 22 90 4.1 1 0 0 0 0 15 15
2 Dec 2018 SEA SF @ SEA 16:43 13 69 5.3 0 3 39 13 0 12.3 13.8
25 Nov 2018 SEA SEA @ CAR 30:27 16 55 3.4 1 2 8 4 0 13.3 14.3
15 Nov 2018 SEA GB @ SEA 24:27 17 83 4.9 1 0 0 0 0 12.3 13.3
4 Nov 2018 SEA LAC @ SEA 25:17 8 40 5 0 0 0 0 0 4 4
28 Oct 2018 SEA SEA @ DET 28:14 25 105 4.2 1 2 19 9.5 0 19.4 23.4
14 Oct 2018 SEA SEA @ OAK 27:3 14 59 4.2 0 0 0 0 0 5.9 5.9
7 Oct 2018 SEA LAR @ SEA 33:31 19 116 6.1 0 1 11 11 0 13.2 16.7
23 Sep 2018 SEA DAL @ SEA 13:24 32 102 3.2 1 2 22 11 0 19.4 23.4
17 Sep 2018 SEA SEA @ CHI 17:24 6 24 4 0 0 0 0 0 2.4 2.4

Carson missed a game and Mike Davis played well without him, leading some to think there would be another committee forming in Seattle. That does appear to be true since both Seahawks backs got double digit carries but Carson was the lead dog of the duo. Even with a split, Seattle is fifth in rushing attempts this year. It seems a little backwards to be taking the ball out of the hands of Russell Wilson but that’s exactly what is happening in Seattle. They actually have one more rushing attempt this year than passing attempts so there is work to go around. London games can be a little weird and I try not to get too involved with them but I’m willing to make an exception here. The running game should make the flight across the ocean since the Raiders are allowing the fifth most rushing yards to go along with the fifth most yards per attempt. Carson also saw red zone work last week so the split does extend to that area of the field. Seattle is back to their old tricks and we should take advantage of the savings.

Next game:

HOU @ NYJ

Time:

Sat, 15th Dec, 04:30PM ET

Odds:

NYJ +6.0 / O/U 41.5

RB

Bilal Powell

NY Jets

Salary: 5,400 3,000
FPPG: 7.83 8.80
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
MIN @ NYJ Sun, 21 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,600 3.00 4,200 3.50
IND @ NYJ Sun, 14 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,800 5.90 4,500 5.90
DEN @ NYJ Sun, 7 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,700 7.90 4,400 8.90
NYJ @ JAC Sun, 30 Sep 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,900 7.20 3,800 9.20
NYJ @ CLE Thu, 20 Sep 2018, 8:20PM ET 6,300 7.30 5,300 7.30
MIA @ NYJ Sun, 16 Sep 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,200 16.50 5,100 19.00
NYJ @ DET Mon, 10 Sep 2018, 7:10PM ET 6,000 7.00 4,800 7.50
NYJ @ NE Sun, 31 Dec 2017, 1:00PM ET N/a 6.10 N/a 6.60
LAC @ NYJ Sun, 24 Dec 2017, 1:00PM ET N/a 20.50 N/a 23.50
NYJ @ NO Sun, 17 Dec 2017, 1:00PM ET N/a 10.40 N/a 10.40
Season Team RuAtt RuYd/G RuTD RuYd/R Avg RecR RecTa RecYd/G RecTD
2018 NYJ 80 49 0 4.3 11 18 15.7 1
2017 NYJ 178 51.5 5 4.3 23 33 11.3 0
Date Team Game Score RuAtt RuYd RuAvg RuTD Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
21 Oct 2018 NYJ MIN @ NYJ 37:17 5 20 4 0 1 5 5 0 3 3.5
14 Oct 2018 NYJ IND @ NYJ 34:42 16 59 3.7 0 0 0 0 0 5.9 5.9
7 Oct 2018 NYJ DEN @ NYJ 16:34 20 99 4.9 0 0 0 0 0 7.9 8.9
30 Sep 2018 NYJ NYJ @ JAC 12:31 8 26 3.3 0 4 26 6.5 0 7.2 9.2
20 Sep 2018 NYJ NYJ @ CLE 17:21 14 73 5.2 0 0 0 0 0 7.3 7.3
16 Sep 2018 NYJ MIA @ NYJ 20:12 5 6 1.2 0 5 74 14.8 1 16.5 19
10 Sep 2018 NYJ NYJ @ DET 48:17 12 60 5 0 1 5 5 0 7 7.5
31 Dec 2017 NYJ NYJ @ NE 6:26 13 46 3.5 0 1 10 10 0 6.1 6.6
24 Dec 2017 NYJ LAC @ NYJ 14:7 19 145 7.6 1 0 0 0 0 20.5 23.5
17 Dec 2017 NYJ NYJ @ NO 19:31 13 44 3.4 1 0 0 0 0 10.4 10.4

It’s not a typical situation that I would want to attack since Powell is splitting work with Isaiah Crowell but after watching the Colts get ripped apart by James White last week, Powell might not be a bad way to go here. White only saw two rushing attempts but caught seven passes for 77 yards and a touchdown. Nobody is going to confuse the Jets offense with Patriots offense any time soon but the role Powell plays is similar to what White does in New England. What’s nice is Powell is going to see way more carries than White saw last week so it should help raise his floor. He’s averaging 15 touches a game and I think the Jets might utilize him more in the passing game than they have been. 10 receptions is low for Powell and he gets almost the same chances in the red zone that Crowell does with a 10-9 split. His price is very nice across the industry.

 

Wide Receiver 

Next game:

ARI @ ATL

Time:

Sun, 16th Dec, 01:00PM ET

Odds:

ATL -8.5 / O/U 44.0

WR

Mohamed Sanu

Atlanta Falcons

Salary: 5,400 4,600
FPPG: 8.26 10.50
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
ATL @ GB Sun, 9 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,200 8.40 4,300 11.40
BAL @ ATL Sun, 2 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,300 5.20 4,300 6.70
ATL @ NO Thu, 22 Nov 2018, 8:20PM ET 5,300 9.70 4,500 11.70
DAL @ ATL Sun, 18 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,300 7.90 5,100 9.90
ATL @ CLE Sun, 11 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,600 5.70 5,300 9.70
ATL @ WSH Sun, 4 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,800 6.50 5,100 8.50
NYG @ ATL Mon, 22 Oct 2018, 8:15PM ET 5,800 3.10 5,200 4.10
TB @ ATL Sun, 14 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,800 11.60 4,800 12.60
ATL @ PIT Sun, 7 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,600 15.30 4,000 17.30
CIN @ ATL Sun, 30 Sep 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,300 14.10 3,600 20.10
Season Team ReR ReTa ReYd ReYd/G ReTD Yd/Ta
2018 ATL 51 70 637 49 3 9.10
2017 ATL 67 97 703 46.9 5 7.25
Date Team Game Score Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
9 Dec 2018 ATL ATL @ GB 20:34 6 54 9 0 8.4 11.4
2 Dec 2018 ATL BAL @ ATL 26:16 3 37 12.3 0 5.2 6.7
22 Nov 2018 ATL ATL @ NO 17:31 4 74 18.5 0 9.7 11.7
18 Nov 2018 ATL DAL @ ATL 22:19 4 56 14 0 7.9 9.9
11 Nov 2018 ATL ATL @ CLE 16:28 6 47 7.8 0 5.7 9.7
4 Nov 2018 ATL ATL @ WSH 38:14 4 45 11.3 0 6.5 8.5
22 Oct 2018 ATL NYG @ ATL 20:23 2 21 10.5 0 3.1 4.1
14 Oct 2018 ATL TB @ ATL 29:34 2 46 23 1 11.6 12.6
7 Oct 2018 ATL ATL @ PIT 17:41 4 73 18.3 1 15.3 17.3
30 Sep 2018 ATL CIN @ ATL 37:36 6 111 18.5 0 14.1 20.1

One of the players that did pay off for me last week was Sanu and I’m going right back to the well. He’s quietly gone 14/220/2 these past three weeks and now he gets the Swiss cheese that is the Buccaneers defense. Despite having the bye week, Tampa has given up the fourth most yards, the most yards per game, tied for most touchdowns surrendered and are giving up a passer rating of 130.5, worst in football. Provided Matt Ryan is healthy, he should be able to do pretty much whatever he wants in this game. While Julio Jones should dominate this game, there will also be enough left over for Sanu to get some work in as well. It’s always nice to know he’s not going to see any special coverage and Ryan will be able to find him on their home turf.

Next game:

HOU @ NYJ

Time:

Sat, 15th Dec, 04:30PM ET

Odds:

HOU -6.0 / O/U 41.5

WR

Keke Coutee

Houston Texans

Salary: 5,600 4,300
FPPG: 8.12 11.00
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
TEN @ HOU Mon, 26 Nov 2018, 8:15PM ET 5,600 2.40 4,600 3.40
HOU @ WSH Sun, 18 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,600 10.20 4,500 12.70
HOU @ JAC Sun, 21 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,600 0.80 4,300 1.30
BUF @ HOU Sun, 14 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,700 4.80 4,600 6.30
DAL @ HOU Sun, 7 Oct 2018, 8:20PM ET 5,400 14.30 4,200 17.30
HOU @ IND Sun, 30 Sep 2018, 1:00PM ET 4,500 16.20 3,000 24.70
Season Team ReR ReTa ReYd ReYd/G ReTD Yd/Ta
2018 HOU 28 41 287 47.8 1 7.00
Date Team Game Score Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
26 Nov 2018 HOU TEN @ HOU 17:34 2 14 7 0 2.4 3.4
18 Nov 2018 HOU HOU @ WSH 23:21 5 77 15.4 0 10.2 12.7
21 Oct 2018 HOU HOU @ JAC 20:7 1 3 3 0 0.8 1.3
14 Oct 2018 HOU BUF @ HOU 13:20 3 33 11 0 4.8 6.3
7 Oct 2018 HOU DAL @ HOU 16:19 6 51 8.5 1 14.3 17.3
30 Sep 2018 HOU HOU @ IND 37:34 11 109 9.9 0 16.2 24.7

Coutee has walked into the offense and hit the ground running. The first week was injury related, as he stepped in for Will Fuller and saw double digit targets. That seemed like it wouldn’t continue and while he didn’t see double digit targets this past game, he still saw seven and found the end zone. Fuller played over 90 percent of the snaps in an overtime game so I don’t think his hamstring injury was much of an issue. Coutee is playing a very important role in the offense because Fuller and DeAndre Hopkins are seeing targets on average of at last 12.8 yards. When those plays aren’t there, Deshaun Watson can turn to Coutee and his 5.0 aDOT as a safety valve. Watson sorely needs that type of player in the offense because he has to stop taking so many hits. This element is new to the offense and Watson will be looking to take advantage of it since Hopkins will see Tre White on the other side of him. Coutee and Fuller should both do some work in this one.

 

Tight End

Next game:

OAK @ CIN

Time:

Sun, 16th Dec, 01:00PM ET

Odds:

CIN -2.5 / O/U 46.0

TE

C.J. Uzomah

Cincinnati Bengals

Salary: 5,000 3,600
FPPG: 5.09 6.50
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
CIN @ LAC Sun, 9 Dec 2018, 4:05PM ET 5,200 5.20 3,500 6.70
DEN @ CIN Sun, 2 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,200 5.80 3,400 8.30
CLE @ CIN Sun, 25 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,200 6.90 3,300 9.90
CIN @ BAL Sun, 18 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,300 5.60 3,400 7.10
NO @ CIN Sun, 11 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,400 3.80 3,700 5.30
CIN @ KC Sun, 21 Oct 2018, 8:20PM ET 5,400 8.30 3,400 9.30
PIT @ CIN Sun, 14 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,100 8.40 3,000 11.40
MIA @ CIN Sun, 7 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 4,700 5.30 2,900 6.30
CIN @ ATL Sun, 30 Sep 2018, 1:00PM ET 4,700 1.10 2,500 1.60
CIN @ CAR Sun, 23 Sep 2018, 1:00PM ET 4,300 8.90 2,600 9.90
Season Team ReR ReTa ReYd ReYd/G ReTD Yd/Ta
2018 CIN 37 53 357 27.5 2 6.74
2017 CIN 10 15 92 6.6 1 6.13
Date Team Game Score Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
9 Dec 2018 CIN CIN @ LAC 21:26 3 37 12.3 0 5.2 6.7
2 Dec 2018 CIN DEN @ CIN 24:10 5 33 6.6 0 5.8 8.3
25 Nov 2018 CIN CLE @ CIN 35:20 6 39 6.5 0 6.9 9.9
18 Nov 2018 CIN CIN @ BAL 21:24 3 41 13.7 0 5.6 7.1
11 Nov 2018 CIN NO @ CIN 51:14 3 23 7.7 0 3.8 5.3
21 Oct 2018 CIN CIN @ KC 10:45 2 13 6.5 1 8.3 9.3
14 Oct 2018 CIN PIT @ CIN 28:21 6 54 9 0 8.4 11.4
7 Oct 2018 CIN MIA @ CIN 17:27 2 43 21.5 0 5.3 6.3
30 Sep 2018 CIN CIN @ ATL 37:36 1 6 6 0 1.1 1.6
23 Sep 2018 CIN CIN @ CAR 21:31 2 19 9.5 1 8.9 9.9

I would be a little more hesitant if Tyler Kroft plays in this game but if he doesn’t Uzomah is going to be a big time target in this game. Granted, that hasn’t happened yet during the season but the Steelers are tied for last in points given up to the tight end position. Tyler Boyd will see Mike Hilton in the slot for a lot of the game and Hilton is a very good corner. Joe Haden will likely try to contain A.J. Green as much as he can so Uzomah could turn into a nice target for Andy Dalton to try and avoid the pass rush of the Steelers, who have quietly climbed to second in sacks this year.


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