Week 5 NFL DFS Value Picks with Adam Strangis

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Welcome into the Week 5 NFL DFS Value Picks article! Hopefully you have some time to check out the RotoCurve Podcast with myself and Adam Pfeifer to hear our thoughts on the slate overall,, but I’m going to dive into some of my favorite values on this slate!

In an effort for transparency, I’m always going to do a quick recap of who we talked about last week and see what worked out and what didn’t. It was a mixed bag in my debut and we’ll try and hit for a little better average this week!


Week 4 Picks 

Ryan Tannehill, QB – 2.0 DK Points – Wow. That certainly didn’t work the way I thought and hopefully will be one of the worst misses all year.

Kerryon Johnson, RB – 12.6 DK Points – Matt Patricia is partially to blame here and Sony Michel was the much better play.

Austin Ekeler, RB – 13.6 DK Points – Solid value for his salary

Geronimo Allison, WR  – 14.0 DK Points – Would have been even better had he not gotten injured

Antonio Callaway, WR – 8.7 DK Points – Not great but dropped multiple passes again and just missed a touchdown

Dallas Goedert, TE  – 3.3 DK Points – Swing and a miss.

Let’s get into Week 5!

 

Quarterback

Next game:

OAK @ CIN

Time:

Sun, 16th Dec, 01:00PM ET

Odds:

OAK +2.5 / O/U 46.0

QB

Derek Carr

Oakland Raiders

Salary: 6,800 5,400
FPPG: 15.72 17.00
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
PIT @ OAK Sun, 9 Dec 2018, 4:25PM ET 6,600 18.78 5,000 22.78
KC @ OAK Sun, 2 Dec 2018, 4:05PM ET 6,600 24.20 5,000 24.20
OAK @ BAL Sun, 25 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,600 9.76 4,600 10.76
OAK @ ARI Sun, 18 Nov 2018, 4:05PM ET 6,600 15.68 4,700 15.68
LAC @ OAK Sun, 11 Nov 2018, 4:05PM ET 6,600 7.92 4,700 8.92
OAK @ SF Thu, 1 Nov 2018, 8:20PM ET 6,900 7.34 5,400 7.34
IND @ OAK Sun, 28 Oct 2018, 4:05PM ET 6,900 27.76 5,200 27.76
SEA @ OAK Sun, 14 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,900 4.78 5,100 6.78
OAK @ LAC Sun, 7 Oct 2018, 4:05PM ET 7,000 14.22 5,200 14.22
CLE @ OAK Sun, 30 Sep 2018, 4:05PM ET 7,000 33.58 5,100 36.58
Season Team PaYd/G PaTD Pa QB Rating PaYd/Pa Avg
2018 OAK 245.9 18 97.2 7.5
2017 OAK 226.3 22 86.4 6.8
Date Team Game Score Comp/Att PaYd PaTD PaInt RuAtt RuYd RuTD FD FPts DK FPts
9 Dec 2018 OAK PIT @ OAK 21:24 25/34 322 2 0 1 -1 0 18.78 22.78
2 Dec 2018 OAK KC @ OAK 40:33 29/38 285 3 0 1 8 0 24.2 24.2
25 Nov 2018 OAK OAK @ BAL 17:34 16/34 194 1 0 0 0 0 9.76 10.76
18 Nov 2018 OAK OAK @ ARI 23:21 19/31 192 2 0 0 0 0 15.68 15.68
11 Nov 2018 OAK LAC @ OAK 20:6 24/37 243 0 0 2 2 0 7.92 8.92
1 Nov 2018 OAK OAK @ SF 3:34 16/21 171 0 0 3 5 0 7.34 7.34
28 Oct 2018 OAK IND @ OAK 42:28 21/28 244 3 0 2 0 1 27.76 27.76
14 Oct 2018 OAK SEA @ OAK 27:3 23/31 142 0 0 4 31 0 4.78 6.78
7 Oct 2018 OAK OAK @ LAC 10:26 24/33 268 1 1 1 5 0 14.22 14.22
30 Sep 2018 OAK CLE @ OAK 42:45 35/58 437 4 2 2 1 0 33.58 36.58

If the touchdowns were there to back it up, Derek Carr would be in the middle of a monster season. He’s fourth in passing yards this season and the Chargers defense has been pretty terrible. Even C.J. Beathard almost passed for 300 yards on this defense and for as much as Carr is maligned, he’s better than Beathard. The Chargers are giving up the eighth highest passer rating, 12th most yards and are in the top five in 20+ and 40+ yard pass plays given up. They also only have eight sacks on the season so they cannot get home to the quarterback. That tends to happen when you’re missing one of the best pass rushers in the game in Joey Bosa(ironic because the Raiders know that all too well). Since the Chargers can’t bring the quarterback down, Carr is going to be able to take advantage of his seventh highest yards per pass thrown. The pricing is kind of confusing since he’s coming off his best game of the season(36.6 DK points) and for some reason is only $5,200. This is truly a great way to get off what we think might be the Blake Bortles chalk and all the Raiders pass catching options are very cheap as well.

 

Running Back

Next game:

GB @ CHI

Time:

Sun, 16th Dec, 01:00PM ET

Odds:

GB +6.0 / O/U 45.0

RB

Aaron Jones

Green Bay Packers

Salary: 7,500 6,600
FPPG: 14.33 15.90
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
ATL @ GB Sun, 9 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 7,500 18.10 7,200 19.60
ARI @ GB Sun, 2 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 7,600 13.20 6,700 15.20
GB @ MIN Sun, 25 Nov 2018, 8:20PM ET 7,300 16.80 6,000 18.30
GB @ SEA Thu, 15 Nov 2018, 8:20PM ET 6,700 24.80 5,700 27.30
MIA @ GB Sun, 11 Nov 2018, 4:25PM ET 6,500 30.70 5,000 35.20
GB @ NE Sun, 4 Nov 2018, 8:20PM ET 5,800 7.60 4,400 9.60
GB @ LAR Sun, 28 Oct 2018, 4:25PM ET 5,800 15.60 4,100 16.60
SF @ GB Mon, 15 Oct 2018, 8:15PM ET 6,000 4.10 4,600 4.10
GB @ DET Sun, 7 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,100 6.90 4,300 7.90
BUF @ GB Sun, 30 Sep 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,500 14.70 4,100 15.20
Season Team RuAtt RuYd/G RuTD RuYd/R Avg RecR RecTa RecYd/G RecTD
2018 GB 129 65.5 8 5.6 26 35 18.7 1
2017 GB 81 37.3 4 5.5 9 18 1.8 0
Date Team Game Score RuAtt RuYd RuAvg RuTD Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
9 Dec 2018 GB ATL @ GB 20:34 17 78 4.6 1 3 28 9.3 0 18.1 19.6
2 Dec 2018 GB ARI @ GB 20:17 11 36 3.3 1 4 16 4 0 13.2 15.2
25 Nov 2018 GB GB @ MIN 17:24 17 72 4.2 1 3 21 7 0 16.8 18.3
15 Nov 2018 GB GB @ SEA 24:27 11 40 3.6 1 5 63 12.6 1 24.8 27.3
11 Nov 2018 GB MIA @ GB 12:31 15 145 9.7 2 3 27 9 0 30.7 35.2
4 Nov 2018 GB GB @ NE 17:31 14 76 5.4 0 2 10 5 0 7.6 9.6
28 Oct 2018 GB GB @ LAR 27:29 12 86 7.2 1 2 0 0 0 15.6 16.6
15 Oct 2018 GB SF @ GB 30:33 8 41 5.1 0 0 0 0 0 4.1 4.1
7 Oct 2018 GB GB @ DET 23:31 7 40 5.7 0 2 19 9.5 0 6.9 7.9
30 Sep 2018 GB BUF @ GB 0:22 11 65 5.9 1 1 17 17 0 14.7 15.2

If the comments from Aaron Rodgers after the past game against the Bills mean anything, I would expect Jones to start getting more work. Jones saw his carries and snaps rise on Sunday to the point where he and Jamaal Williams split the snaps equally and the talented back for the Packers had a slightly higher touch percentage. He’s earned more touches, ripping off at least 5.5 yards a carry in his two games this year and that’s in line with his career mark of 5.7 yards a rush. He draws one of the best matchups on the board against a Lions defense that just bleeds yards to the running backs. Not only have they given up the most rushing yards in football, but no other team is within 75 yards of their total. They’re tied for first in 20+ and 40+ yard rushes given up already and Jones is known for his long runs. Even if coach Mike McCarthy insists on splitting the work, Jones should see more than his 12 touches he got last week. All three of the Packers starting receivers are injured to some extent so Jones should get at least 15 touches against the Detroit defense. He could well destroy his price tag this week.

Next game:

WSH @ JAC

Time:

Sun, 16th Dec, 01:00PM ET

Odds:

JAC -7.5 / O/U 36.0

RB

Corey Grant

Jacksonville Jaguars

Salary: 4,900 3,000
FPPG: 3.04 3.90
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
JAC @ KC Sun, 7 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,100 0.80 3,700 0.80
NYJ @ JAC Sun, 30 Sep 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,100 2.70 3,800 3.70
TEN @ JAC Sun, 23 Sep 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,600 1.50 4,300 2.00
NE @ JAC Sun, 16 Sep 2018, 4:25PM ET 4,800 9.90 4,300 12.90
JAC @ NYG Sun, 9 Sep 2018, 1:00PM ET 4,500 0.30 4,000 0.30
JAC @ NE Sun, 21 Jan 2018, 3:05PM ET N/a 7.60 N/a 9.10
JAC @ PIT Sun, 14 Jan 2018, 1:05PM ET N/a 0 N/a 0
BUF @ JAC Sun, 7 Jan 2018, 1:05PM ET N/a 0.30 N/a 0.30
JAC @ TEN Sun, 31 Dec 2017, 4:25PM ET N/a 0 N/a 0
JAC @ SF Sun, 24 Dec 2017, 4:05PM ET N/a 0 N/a 0
Season Team RuAtt RuYd/G RuTD RuYd/R Avg RecR RecTa RecYd/G RecTD
2018 JAC 13 8 0 3.1 9 12 13.4 0
2017 JAC 30 15.5 2 8.3 3 4 2.6 0
Date Team Game Score RuAtt RuYd RuAvg RuTD Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
7 Oct 2018 JAC JAC @ KC 14:30 1 8 8 0 0 0 0 0 0.8 0.8
30 Sep 2018 JAC NYJ @ JAC 12:31 1 5 5 0 2 12 6 0 2.7 3.7
23 Sep 2018 JAC TEN @ JAC 9:6 6 11 1.8 0 1 -1 -1 0 1.5 2
16 Sep 2018 JAC NE @ JAC 20:31 4 13 3.3 0 6 56 9.3 0 9.9 12.9
9 Sep 2018 JAC JAC @ NYG 20:15 1 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0.3 0.3
21 Jan 2018 JAC JAC @ NE 20:24 1 2 2 0 3 59 19.7 0 7.6 9.1
14 Jan 2018 JAC JAC @ PIT 45:42 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
7 Jan 2018 JAC BUF @ JAC 3:10 1 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0.3 0.3
31 Dec 2017 JAC JAC @ TEN 10:15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
24 Dec 2017 JAC JAC @ SF 33:44 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

This is definitely a tournament play only, but Corey Grant could be very interesting with his price being so low. The Chiefs have actually given up the highest yards per rush in the league at 5.7 yards. However, since Patrick Mahomes is the GOAT and the offense scores so much, opposing teams have only been able to run the ball 86 times through four games, which is the seventh fewest in football. Jacksonville should be able to limit the Chiefs offense to mere mortal levels of production this week, meaning the Jags should be able to rush the ball. Corey Grant might not look like much but he’s had one game where he was healthy and he was a part of the gameplan and that was Week 2 against New England. During that game, he saw over 40 percent of the snaps as the Jags put their pedal on the gas and tried to score with New England. Blake Bortles threw 45 times in that game, a season high and Grant saw a season high seven targets. He turned that into 12.9 DK points and the Jags may need a complimentary player in the backfield along with T.J. “Free Square” Yeldon. The Chiefs lead the league in passing yards given up to running backs at 385 yards with the next closest team at 328(Tampa Bay). A repeat of Week 2 could be on the table this week with a ceiling for more.

 

Wide Receiver 

Next game:

TEN @ NYG

Time:

Sun, 16th Dec, 01:00PM ET

Odds:

TEN +2.5 / O/U 43.5

WR

Taywan Taylor

Tennessee Titans

Salary: 4,900 3,800
FPPG: 5.67 7.60
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
JAC @ TEN Thu, 6 Dec 2018, 8:20PM ET 4,600 8.90 3,400 11.90
NYJ @ TEN Sun, 2 Dec 2018, 4:05PM ET 4,600 11.90 3,300 16.40
TEN @ DAL Mon, 5 Nov 2018, 8:15PM ET 4,600 3.40 3,600 4.40
TEN @ LAC Sun, 21 Oct 2018, 9:30AM ET 5,000 1.30 3,800 1.80
BAL @ TEN Sun, 14 Oct 2018, 4:25PM ET 5,000 1.80 3,900 2.30
TEN @ BUF Sun, 7 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,000 2.50 4,000 5.00
PHI @ TEN Sun, 30 Sep 2018, 1:00PM ET 4,500 11.20 4,000 14.70
TEN @ JAC Sun, 23 Sep 2018, 1:00PM ET 4,500 5.00 3,600 7.00
HOU @ TEN Sun, 16 Sep 2018, 1:00PM ET 4,500 10.70 3,600 12.20
TEN @ MIA Sun, 9 Sep 2018, 1:00PM ET 4,500 0 3,600 0
Season Team ReR ReTa ReYd ReYd/G ReTD Yd/Ta
2018 TEN 30 42 377 37.7 1 8.98
2017 TEN 16 27 231 14.4 1 8.56
Date Team Game Score Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
6 Dec 2018 TEN JAC @ TEN 9:30 6 59 9.8 0 8.9 11.9
2 Dec 2018 TEN NYJ @ TEN 22:26 3 104 34.7 0 11.9 16.4
5 Nov 2018 TEN TEN @ DAL 28:14 2 24 12 0 3.4 4.4
21 Oct 2018 TEN TEN @ LAC 19:20 1 8 8 0 1.3 1.8
14 Oct 2018 TEN BAL @ TEN 21:0 1 13 13 0 1.8 2.3
7 Oct 2018 TEN TEN @ BUF 12:13 3 30 10 0 2.5 5
30 Sep 2018 TEN PHI @ TEN 23:26 7 77 11 0 11.2 14.7
23 Sep 2018 TEN TEN @ JAC 9:6 4 30 7.5 0 5 7
16 Sep 2018 TEN HOU @ TEN 17:20 3 32 10.7 1 10.7 12.2
9 Sep 2018 TEN TEN @ MIA 20:27 0 0 0 0 0 0

All of the buzz around the Titans offense is centered on the connection of Marcus Mariota and Corey Davis after their big win against the Eagles but a player who shouldn’t be overlooked is Taylor. He’s seen his targets and snaps climb upwards since the start of the season and that might be by default since the Titans have lost Delanie Walker and Rishard Matthews. Whatever the reasons are, Taylor is quietly turning into a solid receiver with a market share of almost 18 percent and last week represented a season high nine targets for seven receptions and 77 yards. The presence of Bills corner Tre’Davious White looms large in this spot and the Titans might need to find alternative ways to move the ball in Buffalo. If Taylor saw nine targets while Davis was going off, he should see at least that many if Davis is being blanketed. Secondary receivers not covered by White have done well against Buffalo so far –

Week 1, Baltimore – Willie Snead and Michael Crabtree catch a touchdown

Week 2, LA Chargers – Mike Williams, touchdown

Week 3, Minnesota – Adam Thielen goes bonkers for 100+ yards and a touchdown

Week 4, Green Bay – Geronimo Allison – 80 yards and left injured

Now, Thielen is not a secondary receiver by any means but White covered Stefon Diggs almost exclusively. Buffalo has been getting ripped up by the receivers he hasn’t covered and Taylor is just next in line.

Next game:

DET @ BUF

Time:

Sun, 16th Dec, 01:00PM ET

Odds:

DET +2.5 / O/U 39.0

WR

Marvin Jones Jr.

Detroit Lions

Salary: 6,200 5,000
FPPG: 10.92 13.20
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
DET @ CHI Sun, 11 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,200 7.00 5,500 8.50
DET @ MIN Sun, 4 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,500 9.60 5,300 12.60
SEA @ DET Sun, 28 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,000 27.20 4,800 33.70
DET @ MIA Sun, 21 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,400 4.40 4,900 5.90
GB @ DET Sun, 7 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,500 7.30 4,700 7.80
DET @ DAL Sun, 30 Sep 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,500 7.10 5,200 8.60
NE @ DET Sun, 23 Sep 2018, 8:20PM ET 6,600 14.90 5,600 16.90
DET @ SF Sun, 16 Sep 2018, 4:05PM ET 6,800 13.40 6,200 15.40
NYJ @ DET Mon, 10 Sep 2018, 7:10PM ET 7,500 7.40 6,700 9.40
GB @ DET Sun, 31 Dec 2017, 1:00PM ET N/a 16.10 N/a 18.10
Season Team ReR ReTa ReYd ReYd/G ReTD Yd/Ta
2018 DET 35 62 508 56.4 5 8.19
2017 DET 61 108 1101 68.8 9 10.19
Date Team Game Score Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
11 Nov 2018 DET DET @ CHI 22:34 3 55 18.3 0 7 8.5
4 Nov 2018 DET DET @ MIN 9:24 6 66 11 0 9.6 12.6
28 Oct 2018 DET SEA @ DET 28:14 7 117 16.7 2 27.2 33.7
21 Oct 2018 DET DET @ MIA 32:21 3 29 9.7 0 4.4 5.9
7 Oct 2018 DET GB @ DET 23:31 1 8 8 1 7.3 7.8
30 Sep 2018 DET DET @ DAL 24:26 3 56 18.7 0 7.1 8.6
23 Sep 2018 DET NE @ DET 10:26 4 69 17.3 1 14.9 16.9
16 Sep 2018 DET DET @ SF 27:30 4 54 13.5 1 13.4 15.4
10 Sep 2018 DET NYJ @ DET 48:17 4 54 13.5 0 7.4 9.4
31 Dec 2017 DET GB @ DET 11:35 4 81 20.3 1 16.1 18.1

While everyone is lavishing Kenny Golladay as the clear cut number two option in the Detroit lineup, everyone seems to forget about Marvin Jones. Golladay only has three more targets on the year and Jones has the higher aDOT by almost three yards. The deep targets are going to be a little flighty from a predictability standpoint, but they’re highly valuable for fantasy because it takes so few receptions to have a good game. Jones is averaging just a little under 3x return as it is and he’s dominating the red zone for the Lions. Not only do his seven opportunities lead the team, it leads the duo of Golden Tate and Golladay by two targets combined. If that isn’t enough for you, lets take a walk down #NarrativeStreet. Adam Pfeifer’s favorite receiver has torched the Packers in five career games, averaging five receptions for 101.4 yards per game and six total touchdowns.

 

Tight End 

Next game:

ARI @ ATL

Time:

Sun, 16th Dec, 01:00PM ET

Odds:

ATL -8.5 / O/U 44.0

TE

Austin Hooper

Atlanta Falcons

Salary: 5,500 4,200
FPPG: 8.75 11.20
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
ATL @ GB Sun, 9 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,700 5.70 4,300 7.70
BAL @ ATL Sun, 2 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,700 12.90 3,900 15.40
ATL @ NO Thu, 22 Nov 2018, 8:20PM ET 5,800 5.60 4,200 8.10
DAL @ ATL Sun, 18 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,000 4.70 4,500 6.70
ATL @ CLE Sun, 11 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,800 16.60 3,800 21.60
ATL @ WSH Sun, 4 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,900 5.60 3,800 7.10
NYG @ ATL Mon, 22 Oct 2018, 8:15PM ET 5,900 6.30 4,200 7.80
TB @ ATL Sun, 14 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,600 17.60 3,500 22.10
ATL @ PIT Sun, 7 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,000 12.20 3,000 16.70
CIN @ ATL Sun, 30 Sep 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,000 2.40 2,900 2.90
Season Team ReR ReTa ReYd ReYd/G ReTD Yd/Ta
2018 ATL 64 79 557 42.8 4 7.05
2017 ATL 49 65 526 32.9 3 8.09
Date Team Game Score Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
9 Dec 2018 ATL ATL @ GB 20:34 4 37 9.3 0 5.7 7.7
2 Dec 2018 ATL BAL @ ATL 26:16 5 44 8.8 1 12.9 15.4
22 Nov 2018 ATL ATL @ NO 17:31 5 31 6.2 0 5.6 8.1
18 Nov 2018 ATL DAL @ ATL 22:19 4 27 6.8 0 4.7 6.7
11 Nov 2018 ATL ATL @ CLE 16:28 10 56 5.6 1 16.6 21.6
4 Nov 2018 ATL ATL @ WSH 38:14 3 41 13.7 0 5.6 7.1
22 Oct 2018 ATL NYG @ ATL 20:23 3 48 16 0 6.3 7.8
14 Oct 2018 ATL TB @ ATL 29:34 9 71 7.9 1 17.6 22.1
7 Oct 2018 ATL ATL @ PIT 17:41 9 77 8.6 0 12.2 16.7
30 Sep 2018 ATL CIN @ ATL 37:36 1 19 19 0 2.4 2.9

Tight end is a big bag of grossness after Zach Ertz and maybe Travis Kelce this week so trying to pick the right cheaper player could be a pretty massive edge. Hooper might be that man since he’s in a prime shootout game and is seeing consistent targets for the most part. Three of four games so far has seen him get at least four and the matchup is a cupcake. Only three teams have given up more yards than the Steelers so far and they’re tied for second in touchdowns given up. Hooper leads the entire team in snaps and Matt Ryan is going to have to throw the ball plenty of times in this one. You’re still hoping for a touchdown and will likely be disappointed if he doesn’t get it but for the price tag, it’s worth the chance and a good way to get a lower owned piece of the Atlanta Falcons.


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