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Week 5 NFL DFS Value Picks with Adam Strangis

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Welcome into the Week 5 NFL DFS Value Picks article! Hopefully you have some time to check out the RotoCurve Podcast with myself and Adam Pfeifer to hear our thoughts on the slate overall,, but I’m going to dive into some of my favorite values on this slate!

In an effort for transparency, I’m always going to do a quick recap of who we talked about last week and see what worked out and what didn’t. It was a mixed bag in my debut and we’ll try and hit for a little better average this week!


Week 4 Picks 

Ryan Tannehill, QB – 2.0 DK Points – Wow. That certainly didn’t work the way I thought and hopefully will be one of the worst misses all year.

Kerryon Johnson, RB – 12.6 DK Points – Matt Patricia is partially to blame here and Sony Michel was the much better play.

Austin Ekeler, RB – 13.6 DK Points – Solid value for his salary

Geronimo Allison, WR  – 14.0 DK Points – Would have been even better had he not gotten injured

Antonio Callaway, WR – 8.7 DK Points – Not great but dropped multiple passes again and just missed a touchdown

Dallas Goedert, TE  – 3.3 DK Points – Swing and a miss.

Let’s get into Week 5!

 

Quarterback

Next game:

Time:

Odds:

QB

Derek Carr

Oakland Raiders

Salary: 7,300 5,500
FPPG: 15.51 15.70
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
OAK @ DEN Sun, 29 Dec 2019, 4:25PM ET 7,300 19.64 5,500 22.64
OAK @ LAC Sun, 22 Dec 2019, 4:05PM ET 7,300 21.94 5,300 21.94
JAC @ OAK Sun, 15 Dec 2019, 4:05PM ET 7,300 15.88 5,600 15.88
TEN @ OAK Sun, 8 Dec 2019, 4:25PM ET 7,000 20.22 5,000 20.22
OAK @ KC Sun, 1 Dec 2019, 4:25PM ET 7,200 11.58 5,500 11.58
OAK @ NYJ Sun, 24 Nov 2019, 1:00PM ET 7,400 5.18 6,100 5.18
CIN @ OAK Sun, 17 Nov 2019, 4:25PM ET 7,400 20.78 6,100 20.78
LAC @ OAK Thu, 7 Nov 2019, 8:20PM ET 7,300 13.12 5,600 13.12
DET @ OAK Sun, 3 Nov 2019, 4:05PM ET 7,300 19.56 5,500 19.56
OAK @ HOU Sun, 27 Oct 2019, 4:25PM ET 6,900 23.40 5,000 23.40
Season Team PaYd/G PaTD Pa QB Rating PaYd/Pa Avg
2019 OAK 258.5 21 100.8 7.9
2018 OAK 255.4 19 93.9 7.3
Date Team Game Score Comp/Att PaYd PaTD PaInt RuAtt RuYd RuTD FD FPts DK FPts
29 Dec 2019 OAK OAK @ DEN 15:16 29/46 391 1 0 1 0 0 19.64 22.64
22 Dec 2019 OAK OAK @ LAC 24:17 26/30 291 1 0 1 3 1 21.94 21.94
15 Dec 2019 OAK JAC @ OAK 20:16 22/36 267 1 0 1 12 0 15.88 15.88
8 Dec 2019 OAK TEN @ OAK 42:21 25/34 263 2 0 2 17 0 20.22 20.22
1 Dec 2019 OAK OAK @ KC 9:40 20/30 222 1 2 3 7 0 11.58 11.58
24 Nov 2019 OAK OAK @ NYJ 3:34 15/27 127 0 1 1 11 0 5.18 5.18
17 Nov 2019 OAK CIN @ OAK 10:17 25/29 292 1 1 5 1 1 20.78 20.78
7 Nov 2019 OAK LAC @ OAK 24:26 21/31 218 1 0 1 4 0 13.12 13.12
3 Nov 2019 OAK DET @ OAK 24:31 20/31 289 2 0 0 0 0 19.56 19.56
27 Oct 2019 OAK OAK @ HOU 24:27 18/30 285 3 0 0 0 0 23.4 23.4

If the touchdowns were there to back it up, Derek Carr would be in the middle of a monster season. He’s fourth in passing yards this season and the Chargers defense has been pretty terrible. Even C.J. Beathard almost passed for 300 yards on this defense and for as much as Carr is maligned, he’s better than Beathard. The Chargers are giving up the eighth highest passer rating, 12th most yards and are in the top five in 20+ and 40+ yard pass plays given up. They also only have eight sacks on the season so they cannot get home to the quarterback. That tends to happen when you’re missing one of the best pass rushers in the game in Joey Bosa(ironic because the Raiders know that all too well). Since the Chargers can’t bring the quarterback down, Carr is going to be able to take advantage of his seventh highest yards per pass thrown. The pricing is kind of confusing since he’s coming off his best game of the season(36.6 DK points) and for some reason is only $5,200. This is truly a great way to get off what we think might be the Blake Bortles chalk and all the Raiders pass catching options are very cheap as well.

 

Running Back

Next game:

Time:

Odds:

RB

Aaron Jones

Green Bay Packers

Salary: 7,800 6,700
FPPG: 18.14 20.80
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
GB @ SF Sun, 19 Jan 2020, 6:40PM ET 7,800 22.80 6,700 25.30
SEA @ GB Sun, 12 Jan 2020, 6:40PM ET 8,200 19.10 7,400 19.60
GB @ DET Sun, 29 Dec 2019, 1:00PM ET 8,000 15.30 8,200 19.30
GB @ MIN Mon, 23 Dec 2019, 8:15PM ET 7,900 27.00 7,400 32.00
CHI @ GB Sun, 15 Dec 2019, 1:00PM ET 7,800 17.10 7,300 17.10
WSH @ GB Sun, 8 Dec 2019, 1:00PM ET 7,800 28.20 6,700 34.20
GB @ NYG Sun, 1 Dec 2019, 1:00PM ET 8,000 5.10 6,800 7.10
GB @ SF Sun, 24 Nov 2019, 8:20PM ET 7,600 3.80 7,000 3.80
CAR @ GB Sun, 10 Nov 2019, 4:25PM ET 7,600 27.30 7,400 27.30
GB @ LAC Sun, 3 Nov 2019, 4:25PM ET 7,700 3.40 7,000 3.90
Season Team RuAtt RuYd/G RuTD RuYd/R Avg RecR RecTa RecYd/G RecTD
2019 GB 33 59 3 3.6 6 7 15.5 1
2018 GB 133 60.7 8 5.5 26 35 17.2 1
Date Team Game Score RuAtt RuYd RuAvg RuTD Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
19 Jan 2020 GB GB @ SF 20:37 12 56 4.7 1 5 27 5.4 1 22.8 25.3
12 Jan 2020 GB SEA @ GB 23:28 21 62 3 2 1 4 4 0 19.1 19.6
29 Dec 2019 GB GB @ DET 23:20 25 100 4 0 2 43 21.5 0 15.3 19.3
23 Dec 2019 GB GB @ MIN 23:10 23 154 6.7 2 2 6 3 0 27 32
15 Dec 2019 GB CHI @ GB 13:21 13 51 3.9 2 0 0 0 0 17.1 17.1
8 Dec 2019 GB WSH @ GB 15:20 16 134 8.4 1 6 58 9.7 0 28.2 34.2
1 Dec 2019 GB GB @ NYG 31:13 11 18 1.6 0 4 13 3.3 0 5.1 7.1
24 Nov 2019 GB GB @ SF 8:37 13 38 2.9 0 0 0 0 0 3.8 3.8
10 Nov 2019 GB CAR @ GB 16:24 13 93 7.2 3 0 0 0 0 27.3 27.3
3 Nov 2019 GB GB @ LAC 11:26 8 30 3.8 0 1 -1 -1 0 3.4 3.9

If the comments from Aaron Rodgers after the past game against the Bills mean anything, I would expect Jones to start getting more work. Jones saw his carries and snaps rise on Sunday to the point where he and Jamaal Williams split the snaps equally and the talented back for the Packers had a slightly higher touch percentage. He’s earned more touches, ripping off at least 5.5 yards a carry in his two games this year and that’s in line with his career mark of 5.7 yards a rush. He draws one of the best matchups on the board against a Lions defense that just bleeds yards to the running backs. Not only have they given up the most rushing yards in football, but no other team is within 75 yards of their total. They’re tied for first in 20+ and 40+ yard rushes given up already and Jones is known for his long runs. Even if coach Mike McCarthy insists on splitting the work, Jones should see more than his 12 touches he got last week. All three of the Packers starting receivers are injured to some extent so Jones should get at least 15 touches against the Detroit defense. He could well destroy his price tag this week.

Next game:

Time:

Odds:

RB

Corey Grant

Salary: 4,500 3,000
FPPG: 3.04 3.90
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
JAC @ KC Sun, 7 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,100 0.80 3,700 0.80
NYJ @ JAC Sun, 30 Sep 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,100 2.70 3,800 3.70
TEN @ JAC Sun, 23 Sep 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,600 1.50 4,300 2.00
NE @ JAC Sun, 16 Sep 2018, 4:25PM ET 4,800 9.90 4,300 12.90
JAC @ NYG Sun, 9 Sep 2018, 1:00PM ET 4,500 0.30 4,000 0.30
JAC @ NE Sun, 21 Jan 2018, 3:05PM ET N/a 7.60 N/a 9.10
JAC @ PIT Sun, 14 Jan 2018, 1:05PM ET N/a 0 N/a 0
BUF @ JAC Sun, 7 Jan 2018, 1:05PM ET N/a 0.30 N/a 0.30
JAC @ TEN Sun, 31 Dec 2017, 4:25PM ET N/a 0 N/a 0
JAC @ SF Sun, 24 Dec 2017, 4:05PM ET N/a 0 N/a 0
Season Team RuAtt RuYd/G RuTD RuYd/R Avg RecR RecTa RecYd/G RecTD
2018 JAC 13 8 0 3.1 9 12 13.4 0
Date Team Game Score RuAtt RuYd RuAvg RuTD Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
7 Oct 2018 JAC JAC @ KC 14:30 1 8 8 0 0 0 0 0 0.8 0.8
30 Sep 2018 JAC NYJ @ JAC 12:31 1 5 5 0 2 12 6 0 2.7 3.7
23 Sep 2018 JAC TEN @ JAC 9:6 6 11 1.8 0 1 -1 -1 0 1.5 2
16 Sep 2018 JAC NE @ JAC 20:31 4 13 3.3 0 6 56 9.3 0 9.9 12.9
9 Sep 2018 JAC JAC @ NYG 20:15 1 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0.3 0.3
21 Jan 2018 JAC JAC @ NE 20:24 1 2 2 0 3 59 19.7 0 7.6 9.1
14 Jan 2018 JAC JAC @ PIT 45:42 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
7 Jan 2018 JAC BUF @ JAC 3:10 1 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0.3 0.3
31 Dec 2017 JAC JAC @ TEN 10:15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
24 Dec 2017 JAC JAC @ SF 33:44 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

This is definitely a tournament play only, but Corey Grant could be very interesting with his price being so low. The Chiefs have actually given up the highest yards per rush in the league at 5.7 yards. However, since Patrick Mahomes is the GOAT and the offense scores so much, opposing teams have only been able to run the ball 86 times through four games, which is the seventh fewest in football. Jacksonville should be able to limit the Chiefs offense to mere mortal levels of production this week, meaning the Jags should be able to rush the ball. Corey Grant might not look like much but he’s had one game where he was healthy and he was a part of the gameplan and that was Week 2 against New England. During that game, he saw over 40 percent of the snaps as the Jags put their pedal on the gas and tried to score with New England. Blake Bortles threw 45 times in that game, a season high and Grant saw a season high seven targets. He turned that into 12.9 DK points and the Jags may need a complimentary player in the backfield along with T.J. “Free Square” Yeldon. The Chiefs lead the league in passing yards given up to running backs at 385 yards with the next closest team at 328(Tampa Bay). A repeat of Week 2 could be on the table this week with a ceiling for more.

 

Wide Receiver 

Next game:

Time:

Odds:

WR

Taywan Taylor

Cleveland Browns

Salary: 4,500 3,000
FPPG:
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
CLE @ BAL Sun, 29 Sep 2019, 1:00PM ET 4,500 0 3,000 0
CLE @ NYJ Mon, 16 Sep 2019, 8:15PM ET 4,500 0 3,000 0
IND @ TEN Sun, 30 Dec 2018, 8:20PM ET 4,900 1.80 N/a 2.80
WSH @ TEN Sat, 22 Dec 2018, 4:30PM ET 5,100 7.90 3,700 9.40
TEN @ NYG Sun, 16 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 4,900 2.70 3,800 3.70
JAC @ TEN Thu, 6 Dec 2018, 8:20PM ET 4,600 8.90 3,400 11.90
NYJ @ TEN Sun, 2 Dec 2018, 4:05PM ET 4,600 11.90 3,300 16.40
TEN @ DAL Mon, 5 Nov 2018, 8:15PM ET 4,600 3.40 3,600 4.40
TEN @ LAC Sun, 21 Oct 2018, 9:30AM ET 5,000 1.30 3,800 1.80
BAL @ TEN Sun, 14 Oct 2018, 4:25PM ET 5,000 1.80 3,900 2.30
Season Team ReR ReTa ReYd ReYd/G ReTD Yd/Ta
2019 CLE 0 0 0 0 0 N/a
2018 TEN 37 56 466 35.8 1 8.32
Date Team Game Score Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
29 Sep 2019 CLE CLE @ BAL 40:25 0 0 0 0 0 0
16 Sep 2019 CLE CLE @ NYJ 23:3 0 0 0 0 0 0
30 Dec 2018 TEN IND @ TEN 33:17 2 8 4 0 1.8 2.8
22 Dec 2018 TEN WSH @ TEN 16:25 3 64 21.3 0 7.9 9.4
16 Dec 2018 TEN TEN @ NYG 17:0 2 17 8.5 0 2.7 3.7
6 Dec 2018 TEN JAC @ TEN 9:30 6 59 9.8 0 8.9 11.9
2 Dec 2018 TEN NYJ @ TEN 22:26 3 104 34.7 0 11.9 16.4
5 Nov 2018 TEN TEN @ DAL 28:14 2 24 12 0 3.4 4.4
21 Oct 2018 TEN TEN @ LAC 19:20 1 8 8 0 1.3 1.8
14 Oct 2018 TEN BAL @ TEN 21:0 1 13 13 0 1.8 2.3

All of the buzz around the Titans offense is centered on the connection of Marcus Mariota and Corey Davis after their big win against the Eagles but a player who shouldn’t be overlooked is Taylor. He’s seen his targets and snaps climb upwards since the start of the season and that might be by default since the Titans have lost Delanie Walker and Rishard Matthews. Whatever the reasons are, Taylor is quietly turning into a solid receiver with a market share of almost 18 percent and last week represented a season high nine targets for seven receptions and 77 yards. The presence of Bills corner Tre’Davious White looms large in this spot and the Titans might need to find alternative ways to move the ball in Buffalo. If Taylor saw nine targets while Davis was going off, he should see at least that many if Davis is being blanketed. Secondary receivers not covered by White have done well against Buffalo so far –

Week 1, Baltimore – Willie Snead and Michael Crabtree catch a touchdown

Week 2, LA Chargers – Mike Williams, touchdown

Week 3, Minnesota – Adam Thielen goes bonkers for 100+ yards and a touchdown

Week 4, Green Bay – Geronimo Allison – 80 yards and left injured

Now, Thielen is not a secondary receiver by any means but White covered Stefon Diggs almost exclusively. Buffalo has been getting ripped up by the receivers he hasn’t covered and Taylor is just next in line.

Next game:

Time:

Odds:

WR

Marvin Jones Jr.

Salary: 4,500 5,000
FPPG: 12.53 15.40
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
DET @ MIN Sun, 8 Dec 2019, 1:00PM ET 6,400 5.30 5,400 6.80
CHI @ DET Thu, 28 Nov 2019, 12:30PM ET 6,400 11.50 5,300 13.00
DET @ WSH Sun, 24 Nov 2019, 1:00PM ET 7,200 7.10 6,100 9.60
DAL @ DET Sun, 17 Nov 2019, 1:00PM ET 6,600 17.90 5,900 19.90
DET @ CHI Sun, 10 Nov 2019, 1:00PM ET 6,600 10.20 6,200 12.70
DET @ OAK Sun, 3 Nov 2019, 4:05PM ET 5,700 22.60 6,000 29.60
NYG @ DET Sun, 27 Oct 2019, 1:00PM ET 6,300 4.20 5,800 6.20
MIN @ DET Sun, 20 Oct 2019, 1:00PM ET 5,600 38.30 5,000 43.30
DET @ GB Mon, 14 Oct 2019, 8:15PM ET 5,600 2.70 5,200 3.70
KC @ DET Sun, 29 Sep 2019, 1:00PM ET 5,900 9.20 5,400 10.70
Season Team ReR ReTa ReYd ReYd/G ReTD Yd/Ta
2019 DET 62 91 779 59.9 9 8.56
2018 DET 35 62 508 56.4 5 8.19
Date Team Game Score Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
8 Dec 2019 DET DET @ MIN 7:20 3 38 12.7 0 5.3 6.8
28 Nov 2019 DET CHI @ DET 24:20 3 40 13.3 1 11.5 13
24 Nov 2019 DET DET @ WSH 16:19 5 46 9.2 0 7.1 9.6
17 Nov 2019 DET DAL @ DET 35:27 4 43 10.8 2 17.9 19.9
10 Nov 2019 DET DET @ CHI 13:20 5 77 15.4 0 10.2 12.7
3 Nov 2019 DET DET @ OAK 24:31 8 126 15.8 1 22.6 29.6
27 Oct 2019 DET NYG @ DET 26:31 4 22 5.5 0 4.2 6.2
20 Oct 2019 DET MIN @ DET 42:30 10 93 9.3 4 38.3 43.3
14 Oct 2019 DET DET @ GB 22:23 2 17 8.5 0 2.7 3.7
29 Sep 2019 DET KC @ DET 34:30 3 77 25.7 0 9.2 10.7

While everyone is lavishing Kenny Golladay as the clear cut number two option in the Detroit lineup, everyone seems to forget about Marvin Jones. Golladay only has three more targets on the year and Jones has the higher aDOT by almost three yards. The deep targets are going to be a little flighty from a predictability standpoint, but they’re highly valuable for fantasy because it takes so few receptions to have a good game. Jones is averaging just a little under 3x return as it is and he’s dominating the red zone for the Lions. Not only do his seven opportunities lead the team, it leads the duo of Golden Tate and Golladay by two targets combined. If that isn’t enough for you, lets take a walk down #NarrativeStreet. Adam Pfeifer’s favorite receiver has torched the Packers in five career games, averaging five receptions for 101.4 yards per game and six total touchdowns.

 

Tight End 

Next game:

Time:

Odds:

TE

Austin Hooper

Atlanta Falcons

Salary: 6,000 5,800
FPPG: 11.86 15.20
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
ATL @ TB Sun, 29 Dec 2019, 1:00PM ET 6,000 8.00 5,800 11.50
JAC @ ATL Sun, 22 Dec 2019, 1:00PM ET 6,000 11.70 4,400 15.20
ATL @ SF Sun, 15 Dec 2019, 4:25PM ET 6,200 3.50 5,000 5.00
CAR @ ATL Sun, 8 Dec 2019, 1:00PM ET 6,600 4.20 6,000 5.20
ATL @ NO Sun, 10 Nov 2019, 1:00PM ET 6,600 9.70 5,500 11.70
SEA @ ATL Sun, 27 Oct 2019, 1:00PM ET 6,600 15.50 5,500 18.50
LAR @ ATL Sun, 20 Oct 2019, 1:00PM ET 6,600 12.60 5,300 14.60
ATL @ ARI Sun, 13 Oct 2019, 4:05PM ET 6,400 21.70 5,000 28.70
ATL @ HOU Sun, 6 Oct 2019, 1:00PM ET 6,700 10.60 4,500 13.60
TEN @ ATL Sun, 29 Sep 2019, 1:00PM ET 6,400 17.50 4,300 25.00
Season Team ReR ReTa ReYd ReYd/G ReTD Yd/Ta
2019 ATL 75 97 787 60.5 6 8.11
2018 ATL 71 88 660 41.3 4 7.50
Date Team Game Score Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
29 Dec 2019 ATL ATL @ TB 28:22 7 45 6.4 0 8 11.5
22 Dec 2019 ATL JAC @ ATL 12:24 7 82 11.7 0 11.7 15.2
15 Dec 2019 ATL ATL @ SF 29:22 3 20 6.7 0 3.5 5
8 Dec 2019 ATL CAR @ ATL 20:40 2 32 16 0 4.2 5.2
10 Nov 2019 ATL ATL @ NO 26:9 4 17 4.3 1 9.7 11.7
27 Oct 2019 ATL SEA @ ATL 27:20 6 65 10.8 1 15.5 18.5
20 Oct 2019 ATL LAR @ ATL 37:10 4 46 11.5 1 12.6 14.6
13 Oct 2019 ATL ATL @ ARI 33:34 8 117 14.6 1 21.7 28.7
6 Oct 2019 ATL ATL @ HOU 32:53 6 56 9.3 0 10.6 13.6
29 Sep 2019 ATL TEN @ ATL 24:10 9 130 14.4 0 17.5 25

Tight end is a big bag of grossness after Zach Ertz and maybe Travis Kelce this week so trying to pick the right cheaper player could be a pretty massive edge. Hooper might be that man since he’s in a prime shootout game and is seeing consistent targets for the most part. Three of four games so far has seen him get at least four and the matchup is a cupcake. Only three teams have given up more yards than the Steelers so far and they’re tied for second in touchdowns given up. Hooper leads the entire team in snaps and Matt Ryan is going to have to throw the ball plenty of times in this one. You’re still hoping for a touchdown and will likely be disappointed if he doesn’t get it but for the price tag, it’s worth the chance and a good way to get a lower owned piece of the Atlanta Falcons.


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