Week 5 NFL DFS Value Picks with Adam Strangis

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Welcome into the Week 5 NFL DFS Value Picks article! Hopefully you have some time to check out the RotoCurve Podcast with myself and Adam Pfeifer to hear our thoughts on the slate overall,, but I’m going to dive into some of my favorite values on this slate!

In an effort for transparency, I’m always going to do a quick recap of who we talked about last week and see what worked out and what didn’t. It was a mixed bag in my debut and we’ll try and hit for a little better average this week!


Week 4 Picks 

Ryan Tannehill, QB – 2.0 DK Points – Wow. That certainly didn’t work the way I thought and hopefully will be one of the worst misses all year.

Kerryon Johnson, RB – 12.6 DK Points – Matt Patricia is partially to blame here and Sony Michel was the much better play.

Austin Ekeler, RB – 13.6 DK Points – Solid value for his salary

Geronimo Allison, WR  – 14.0 DK Points – Would have been even better had he not gotten injured

Antonio Callaway, WR – 8.7 DK Points – Not great but dropped multiple passes again and just missed a touchdown

Dallas Goedert, TE  – 3.3 DK Points – Swing and a miss.

Let’s get into Week 5!

 

Quarterback

Next game:

IND @ OAK

Time:

Sun, 28th Oct, 04:05PM ET

Odds:

QB

Derek Carr

Oakland Raiders

Salary: 6,900 5,100
FPPG: 17.63 19.40
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
SEA @ OAK Sun, 14 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,900 4.78 5,100 6.78
OAK @ LAC Sun, 7 Oct 2018, 4:05PM ET 7,000 14.22 5,200 14.22
CLE @ OAK Sun, 30 Sep 2018, 4:05PM ET 7,000 33.58 5,100 36.58
OAK @ MIA Sun, 23 Sep 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,800 15.60 5,400 18.60
OAK @ DEN Sun, 16 Sep 2018, 4:25PM ET 6,600 15.52 5,500 15.52
LAR @ OAK Mon, 10 Sep 2018, 10:20PM ET 7,400 9.22 6,300 12.22
OAK @ LAC Sun, 31 Dec 2017, 4:25PM ET N/a 10.82 N/a 11.82
OAK @ PHI Mon, 25 Dec 2017, 8:30PM ET N/a 7.90 N/a 7.90
DAL @ OAK Sun, 17 Dec 2017, 8:30PM ET N/a 17.54 N/a 18.54
OAK @ KC Sun, 10 Dec 2017, 1:00PM ET N/a 12.44 N/a 12.44
Season Team PaYd/G PaTD Pa QB Rating PaYd/Pa Avg
2018 OAK 281 7 89.4 7.7
2017 OAK 226.3 22 86.4 6.8
Date Team Game Score Comp/Att PaYd PaTD PaInt RuAtt RuYd RuTD FD FPts DK FPts
14 Oct 2018 OAK SEA @ OAK 27:3 23/31 142 0 0 4 31 0 4.78 6.78
7 Oct 2018 OAK OAK @ LAC 10:26 24/33 268 1 1 1 5 0 14.22 14.22
30 Sep 2018 OAK CLE @ OAK 42:45 35/58 437 4 2 2 1 0 33.58 36.58
23 Sep 2018 OAK OAK @ MIA 20:28 27/39 345 1 2 2 -2 0 15.6 18.6
16 Sep 2018 OAK OAK @ DEN 19:20 29/32 288 1 0 0 0 0 15.52 15.52
10 Sep 2018 OAK LAR @ OAK 33:13 29/40 303 0 3 2 1 0 9.22 12.22
31 Dec 2017 OAK OAK @ LAC 10:30 19/28 243 1 1 2 1 0 10.82 11.82
25 Dec 2017 OAK OAK @ PHI 10:19 15/29 140 1 2 3 3 0 7.9 7.9
17 Dec 2017 OAK DAL @ OAK 20:17 21/38 171 2 0 4 47 0 17.54 18.54
10 Dec 2017 OAK OAK @ KC 15:26 24/41 211 1 2 0 0 0 12.44 12.44

If the touchdowns were there to back it up, Derek Carr would be in the middle of a monster season. He’s fourth in passing yards this season and the Chargers defense has been pretty terrible. Even C.J. Beathard almost passed for 300 yards on this defense and for as much as Carr is maligned, he’s better than Beathard. The Chargers are giving up the eighth highest passer rating, 12th most yards and are in the top five in 20+ and 40+ yard pass plays given up. They also only have eight sacks on the season so they cannot get home to the quarterback. That tends to happen when you’re missing one of the best pass rushers in the game in Joey Bosa(ironic because the Raiders know that all too well). Since the Chargers can’t bring the quarterback down, Carr is going to be able to take advantage of his seventh highest yards per pass thrown. The pricing is kind of confusing since he’s coming off his best game of the season(36.6 DK points) and for some reason is only $5,200. This is truly a great way to get off what we think might be the Blake Bortles chalk and all the Raiders pass catching options are very cheap as well.

 

Running Back

Next game:

GB @ LAR

Time:

Sun, 28th Oct, 04:25PM ET

Odds:

RB

Aaron Jones

Green Bay Packers

Salary: 6,400 5,300
FPPG: 8.93 9.60
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
SF @ GB Mon, 15 Oct 2018, 8:15PM ET 6,000 4.10 4,600 4.10
GB @ DET Sun, 7 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,100 6.90 4,300 7.90
BUF @ GB Sun, 30 Sep 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,500 14.70 4,100 15.20
GB @ WSH Sun, 23 Sep 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,900 5.20 4,300 5.70
MIN @ GB Sat, 23 Dec 2017, 8:30PM ET N/a 1.30 N/a 1.30
GB @ CAR Sun, 17 Dec 2017, 1:00PM ET N/a 5.80 N/a 6.30
GB @ CLE Sun, 10 Dec 2017, 1:00PM ET N/a -0.20 N/a -0.20
TB @ GB Sun, 3 Dec 2017, 1:00PM ET N/a 8.00 N/a 8.00
GB @ CHI Sun, 12 Nov 2017, 1:00PM ET N/a 1.70 N/a 2.20
DET @ GB Mon, 6 Nov 2017, 8:30PM ET N/a 2.10 N/a 3.10
Season Team RuAtt RuYd/G RuTD RuYd/R Avg RecR RecTa RecYd/G RecTD
2018 GB 32 47 1 5.9 4 6 10.3 0
2017 GB 81 37.3 4 5.5 9 18 1.8 0
Date Team Game Score RuAtt RuYd RuAvg RuTD Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
15 Oct 2018 GB SF @ GB 30:33 8 41 5.1 0 0 0 0 0 4.1 4.1
7 Oct 2018 GB GB @ DET 23:31 7 40 5.7 0 2 19 9.5 0 6.9 7.9
30 Sep 2018 GB BUF @ GB 0:22 11 65 5.9 1 1 17 17 0 14.7 15.2
23 Sep 2018 GB GB @ WSH 17:31 6 42 7 0 1 5 5 0 5.2 5.7
23 Dec 2017 GB MIN @ GB 16:0 3 13 4.3 0 0 0 0 0 1.3 1.3
17 Dec 2017 GB GB @ CAR 24:31 3 47 15.7 0 1 6 6 0 5.8 6.3
10 Dec 2017 GB GB @ CLE 27:21 4 -2 -0.5 0 0 0 0 0 -0.2 -0.2
3 Dec 2017 GB TB @ GB 20:26 1 20 20 1 0 0 0 0 8 8
12 Nov 2017 GB GB @ CHI 23:16 3 12 4 0 1 0 0 0 1.7 2.2
6 Nov 2017 GB DET @ GB 30:17 5 12 2.4 0 2 -1 -0.5 0 2.1 3.1

If the comments from Aaron Rodgers after the past game against the Bills mean anything, I would expect Jones to start getting more work. Jones saw his carries and snaps rise on Sunday to the point where he and Jamaal Williams split the snaps equally and the talented back for the Packers had a slightly higher touch percentage. He’s earned more touches, ripping off at least 5.5 yards a carry in his two games this year and that’s in line with his career mark of 5.7 yards a rush. He draws one of the best matchups on the board against a Lions defense that just bleeds yards to the running backs. Not only have they given up the most rushing yards in football, but no other team is within 75 yards of their total. They’re tied for first in 20+ and 40+ yard rushes given up already and Jones is known for his long runs. Even if coach Mike McCarthy insists on splitting the work, Jones should see more than his 12 touches he got last week. All three of the Packers starting receivers are injured to some extent so Jones should get at least 15 touches against the Detroit defense. He could well destroy his price tag this week.

Next game:

HOU @ JAC

Time:

Sun, 21st Oct, 01:00PM ET

Odds:

JAC -4.0 / O/U 41.0

RB

Corey Grant

Jacksonville Jaguars

Salary: 4,900 3,000
FPPG: 3.04 3.90
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
JAC @ KC Sun, 7 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,100 0.80 3,700 0.80
NYJ @ JAC Sun, 30 Sep 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,100 2.70 3,800 3.70
TEN @ JAC Sun, 23 Sep 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,600 1.50 4,300 2.00
NE @ JAC Sun, 16 Sep 2018, 4:25PM ET 4,800 9.90 4,300 12.90
JAC @ NYG Sun, 9 Sep 2018, 1:00PM ET 4,500 0.30 4,000 0.30
JAC @ NE Sun, 21 Jan 2018, 3:05PM ET N/a 7.60 N/a 9.10
JAC @ PIT Sun, 14 Jan 2018, 1:05PM ET N/a 0 N/a 0
BUF @ JAC Sun, 7 Jan 2018, 1:05PM ET N/a 0.30 N/a 0.30
JAC @ TEN Sun, 31 Dec 2017, 4:25PM ET N/a 0 N/a 0
JAC @ SF Sun, 24 Dec 2017, 4:05PM ET N/a 0 N/a 0
Season Team RuAtt RuYd/G RuTD RuYd/R Avg RecR RecTa RecYd/G RecTD
2018 JAC 13 8 0 3.1 9 12 13.4 0
2017 JAC 30 15.5 2 8.3 3 4 2.6 0
Date Team Game Score RuAtt RuYd RuAvg RuTD Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
7 Oct 2018 JAC JAC @ KC 14:30 1 8 8 0 0 0 0 0 0.8 0.8
30 Sep 2018 JAC NYJ @ JAC 12:31 1 5 5 0 2 12 6 0 2.7 3.7
23 Sep 2018 JAC TEN @ JAC 9:6 6 11 1.8 0 1 -1 -1 0 1.5 2
16 Sep 2018 JAC NE @ JAC 20:31 4 13 3.3 0 6 56 9.3 0 9.9 12.9
9 Sep 2018 JAC JAC @ NYG 20:15 1 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0.3 0.3
21 Jan 2018 JAC JAC @ NE 20:24 1 2 2 0 3 59 19.7 0 7.6 9.1
14 Jan 2018 JAC JAC @ PIT 45:42 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
7 Jan 2018 JAC BUF @ JAC 3:10 1 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0.3 0.3
31 Dec 2017 JAC JAC @ TEN 10:15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
24 Dec 2017 JAC JAC @ SF 33:44 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

This is definitely a tournament play only, but Corey Grant could be very interesting with his price being so low. The Chiefs have actually given up the highest yards per rush in the league at 5.7 yards. However, since Patrick Mahomes is the GOAT and the offense scores so much, opposing teams have only been able to run the ball 86 times through four games, which is the seventh fewest in football. Jacksonville should be able to limit the Chiefs offense to mere mortal levels of production this week, meaning the Jags should be able to rush the ball. Corey Grant might not look like much but he’s had one game where he was healthy and he was a part of the gameplan and that was Week 2 against New England. During that game, he saw over 40 percent of the snaps as the Jags put their pedal on the gas and tried to score with New England. Blake Bortles threw 45 times in that game, a season high and Grant saw a season high seven targets. He turned that into 12.9 DK points and the Jags may need a complimentary player in the backfield along with T.J. “Free Square” Yeldon. The Chiefs lead the league in passing yards given up to running backs at 385 yards with the next closest team at 328(Tampa Bay). A repeat of Week 2 could be on the table this week with a ceiling for more.

 

Wide Receiver 

Next game:

TEN @ LAC

Time:

Sun, 21st Oct, 09:30AM ET

Odds:

TEN +6.5 / O/U 45.0

WR

Taywan Taylor

Tennessee Titans

Salary: 7,000 5,000
FPPG: 5.20 6.90
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
BAL @ TEN Sun, 14 Oct 2018, 4:25PM ET 5,000 1.80 3,900 2.30
TEN @ BUF Sun, 7 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,000 2.50 4,000 5.00
PHI @ TEN Sun, 30 Sep 2018, 1:00PM ET 4,500 11.20 4,000 14.70
TEN @ JAC Sun, 23 Sep 2018, 1:00PM ET 4,500 5.00 3,600 7.00
HOU @ TEN Sun, 16 Sep 2018, 1:00PM ET 4,500 10.70 3,600 12.20
TEN @ MIA Sun, 9 Sep 2018, 1:00PM ET 4,500 0 3,600 0
TEN @ NE Sat, 13 Jan 2018, 8:15PM ET N/a 1.00 N/a 1.50
TEN @ KC Sat, 6 Jan 2018, 4:20PM ET N/a 0.90 N/a 1.40
JAC @ TEN Sun, 31 Dec 2017, 4:25PM ET N/a 0.50 N/a 0.50
TEN @ SF Sun, 17 Dec 2017, 4:25PM ET N/a 0.80 N/a 0.80
Season Team ReR ReTa ReYd ReYd/G ReTD Yd/Ta
2018 TEN 18 26 182 30.3 1 7.00
2017 TEN 16 27 231 14.4 1 8.56
Date Team Game Score Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
14 Oct 2018 TEN BAL @ TEN 21:0 1 13 13 0 1.8 2.3
7 Oct 2018 TEN TEN @ BUF 12:13 3 30 10 0 2.5 5
30 Sep 2018 TEN PHI @ TEN 23:26 7 77 11 0 11.2 14.7
23 Sep 2018 TEN TEN @ JAC 9:6 4 30 7.5 0 5 7
16 Sep 2018 TEN HOU @ TEN 17:20 3 32 10.7 1 10.7 12.2
9 Sep 2018 TEN TEN @ MIA 20:27 0 0 0 0 0 0
13 Jan 2018 TEN TEN @ NE 14:35 1 5 5 0 1 1.5
6 Jan 2018 TEN TEN @ KC 22:21 1 4 4 0 0.9 1.4
31 Dec 2017 TEN JAC @ TEN 10:15 0 0 0 0 0.5 0.5
17 Dec 2017 TEN TEN @ SF 23:25 0 0 0 0 0.8 0.8

All of the buzz around the Titans offense is centered on the connection of Marcus Mariota and Corey Davis after their big win against the Eagles but a player who shouldn’t be overlooked is Taylor. He’s seen his targets and snaps climb upwards since the start of the season and that might be by default since the Titans have lost Delanie Walker and Rishard Matthews. Whatever the reasons are, Taylor is quietly turning into a solid receiver with a market share of almost 18 percent and last week represented a season high nine targets for seven receptions and 77 yards. The presence of Bills corner Tre’Davious White looms large in this spot and the Titans might need to find alternative ways to move the ball in Buffalo. If Taylor saw nine targets while Davis was going off, he should see at least that many if Davis is being blanketed. Secondary receivers not covered by White have done well against Buffalo so far –

Week 1, Baltimore – Willie Snead and Michael Crabtree catch a touchdown

Week 2, LA Chargers – Mike Williams, touchdown

Week 3, Minnesota – Adam Thielen goes bonkers for 100+ yards and a touchdown

Week 4, Green Bay – Geronimo Allison – 80 yards and left injured

Now, Thielen is not a secondary receiver by any means but White covered Stefon Diggs almost exclusively. Buffalo has been getting ripped up by the receivers he hasn’t covered and Taylor is just next in line.

Next game:

DET @ MIA

Time:

Sun, 21st Oct, 01:00PM ET

Odds:

DET -3.0 / O/U 47.0

WR

Marvin Jones Jr.

Detroit Lions

Salary: 6,400 4,900
FPPG: 10.02 11.60
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
GB @ DET Sun, 7 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,500 7.30 4,700 7.80
DET @ DAL Sun, 30 Sep 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,500 7.10 5,200 8.60
NE @ DET Sun, 23 Sep 2018, 8:20PM ET 6,600 14.90 5,600 16.90
DET @ SF Sun, 16 Sep 2018, 4:05PM ET 6,800 13.40 6,200 15.40
NYJ @ DET Mon, 10 Sep 2018, 7:10PM ET 7,500 7.40 6,700 9.40
GB @ DET Sun, 31 Dec 2017, 1:00PM ET N/a 16.10 N/a 18.10
DET @ CIN Sun, 24 Dec 2017, 1:00PM ET N/a 6.50 N/a 8.00
CHI @ DET Sat, 16 Dec 2017, 4:30PM ET N/a 10.00 N/a 11.50
DET @ TB Sun, 10 Dec 2017, 1:00PM ET N/a 7.90 N/a 9.40
DET @ BAL Sun, 3 Dec 2017, 1:00PM ET N/a 11.00 N/a 13.00
Season Team ReR ReTa ReYd ReYd/G ReTD Yd/Ta
2018 DET 16 33 241 48.2 3 7.30
2017 DET 61 108 1101 68.8 9 10.19
Date Team Game Score Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
7 Oct 2018 DET GB @ DET 23:31 1 8 8 1 7.3 7.8
30 Sep 2018 DET DET @ DAL 24:26 3 56 18.7 0 7.1 8.6
23 Sep 2018 DET NE @ DET 10:26 4 69 17.3 1 14.9 16.9
16 Sep 2018 DET DET @ SF 27:30 4 54 13.5 1 13.4 15.4
10 Sep 2018 DET NYJ @ DET 48:17 4 54 13.5 0 7.4 9.4
31 Dec 2017 DET GB @ DET 11:35 4 81 20.3 1 16.1 18.1
24 Dec 2017 DET DET @ CIN 17:26 3 50 16.7 0 6.5 8
16 Dec 2017 DET CHI @ DET 10:20 3 85 28.3 0 10 11.5
10 Dec 2017 DET DET @ TB 24:21 3 64 21.3 0 7.9 9.4
3 Dec 2017 DET DET @ BAL 20:44 4 90 22.5 0 11 13

While everyone is lavishing Kenny Golladay as the clear cut number two option in the Detroit lineup, everyone seems to forget about Marvin Jones. Golladay only has three more targets on the year and Jones has the higher aDOT by almost three yards. The deep targets are going to be a little flighty from a predictability standpoint, but they’re highly valuable for fantasy because it takes so few receptions to have a good game. Jones is averaging just a little under 3x return as it is and he’s dominating the red zone for the Lions. Not only do his seven opportunities lead the team, it leads the duo of Golden Tate and Golladay by two targets combined. If that isn’t enough for you, lets take a walk down #NarrativeStreet. Adam Pfeifer’s favorite receiver has torched the Packers in five career games, averaging five receptions for 101.4 yards per game and six total touchdowns.

 

Tight End 

Next game:

NYG @ ATL

Time:

Mon, 22nd Oct, 08:15PM ET

Odds:

ATL -4.0 / O/U 54.0

TE

Austin Hooper

Atlanta Falcons

Salary: 5,900 4,200
FPPG: 9.38 11.90
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
TB @ ATL Sun, 14 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,600 17.60 3,500 22.10
ATL @ PIT Sun, 7 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,000 12.20 3,000 16.70
CIN @ ATL Sun, 30 Sep 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,000 2.40 2,900 2.90
NO @ ATL Sun, 23 Sep 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,200 5.80 2,900 7.30
CAR @ ATL Sun, 16 Sep 2018, 1:00PM ET 4,800 14.40 2,900 16.90
ATL @ PHI Thu, 6 Sep 2018, 8:55PM ET 4,800 3.90 2,900 5.40
ATL @ PHI Sat, 13 Jan 2018, 4:35PM ET N/a 0.80 N/a 1.30
ATL @ LAR Sat, 6 Jan 2018, 8:15PM ET N/a 3.00 N/a 4.50
CAR @ ATL Sun, 31 Dec 2017, 4:25PM ET N/a 5.00 N/a 6.50
ATL @ NO Sun, 24 Dec 2017, 1:00PM ET N/a 3.30 N/a 4.80
Season Team ReR ReTa ReYd ReYd/G ReTD Yd/Ta
2018 ATL 30 37 273 45.5 2 7.38
2017 ATL 49 65 526 32.9 3 8.09
Date Team Game Score Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
14 Oct 2018 ATL TB @ ATL 29:34 9 71 7.9 1 17.6 22.1
7 Oct 2018 ATL ATL @ PIT 17:41 9 77 8.6 0 12.2 16.7
30 Sep 2018 ATL CIN @ ATL 37:36 1 19 19 0 2.4 2.9
23 Sep 2018 ATL NO @ ATL 43:37 3 23 7.7 0 5.8 7.3
16 Sep 2018 ATL CAR @ ATL 24:31 5 59 11.8 1 14.4 16.9
6 Sep 2018 ATL ATL @ PHI 12:18 3 24 8 0 3.9 5.4
13 Jan 2018 ATL ATL @ PHI 10:15 1 3 3 0 0.8 1.3
6 Jan 2018 ATL ATL @ LAR 26:13 3 15 5 0 3 4.5
31 Dec 2017 ATL CAR @ ATL 10:22 3 35 11.7 0 5 6.5
24 Dec 2017 ATL ATL @ NO 13:23 3 18 6 0 3.3 4.8

Tight end is a big bag of grossness after Zach Ertz and maybe Travis Kelce this week so trying to pick the right cheaper player could be a pretty massive edge. Hooper might be that man since he’s in a prime shootout game and is seeing consistent targets for the most part. Three of four games so far has seen him get at least four and the matchup is a cupcake. Only three teams have given up more yards than the Steelers so far and they’re tied for second in touchdowns given up. Hooper leads the entire team in snaps and Matt Ryan is going to have to throw the ball plenty of times in this one. You’re still hoping for a touchdown and will likely be disappointed if he doesn’t get it but for the price tag, it’s worth the chance and a good way to get a lower owned piece of the Atlanta Falcons.


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