Week 4 Thursday Night Showdown Targets

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The schedule makers at the NFL sure have a good sense of humor. From the Chiefs and Ravens on Monday Night Football, we now get the Denver Broncos visiting the New York Jets with no Drew Lock, Le’Veon Bell, Courtland Sutton, or Vonn Miller. Lucky us. But hey, every day is a chance to win so let’s just be thankful that we have NFL football to play DFS on at all this season. This looks like a classic swerve from the obvious slate as even the quarterbacks don’t seem like a lock to put up points. With an over/under of 40 points, let’s take a look at some players who have a chance to get us some points tonight.

Next game:

LAC @ DEN

Time:

Sun, 1st Nov, 04:05PM ET

Odds:

DEN +1.5 / O/U 44.5

RB

Melvin Gordon III

Denver Broncos

Salary: 6,700 5,600
FPPG: 12.02 16.70
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
KC @ DEN Sun, 25 Oct 2020, 4:25PM ET 6,700 11.00 5,500 14.00
DEN @ NYJ Thu, 1 Oct 2020, 8:20PM ET 7,100 24.80 6,900 28.80
TB @ DEN Sun, 27 Sep 2020, 4:25PM ET 6,500 5.80 5,800 7.80
DEN @ PIT Sun, 20 Sep 2020, 1:00PM ET 6,700 15.40 5,200 16.40
TEN @ DEN Mon, 14 Sep 2020, 10:10PM ET 6,600 14.10 5,100 16.60
LAC @ KC Sun, 29 Dec 2019, 1:00PM ET 7,200 21.20 6,000 24.20
OAK @ LAC Sun, 22 Dec 2019, 4:05PM ET 7,000 19.70 5,600 22.70
MIN @ LAC Sun, 15 Dec 2019, 4:05PM ET 7,400 4.90 6,500 9.40
LAC @ JAC Sun, 8 Dec 2019, 4:05PM ET 7,300 16.90 6,400 19.40
LAC @ DEN Sun, 1 Dec 2019, 4:25PM ET 7,000 12.00 6,400 13.00
Season Team RuAtt RuYd/G RuTD RuYd/R Avg RecR RecTa RecYd/G RecTD
2020 DEN 65 70.3 3 4.3 11 15 11.3 1
2019 LAC 162 51 8 3.8 42 55 24.7 1
Date Team Game Score RuAtt RuYd RuAvg RuTD Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
25 Oct 2020 DEN KC @ DEN 43:16 17 68 4 1 2 12 6 0 11 14
1 Oct 2020 DEN DEN @ NYJ 37:28 23 107 4.7 2 2 11 5.5 0 24.8 28.8
27 Sep 2020 DEN TB @ DEN 28:10 8 26 3.3 0 4 12 3 0 5.8 7.8
20 Sep 2020 DEN DEN @ PIT 21:26 19 70 3.7 0 2 14 7 1 15.4 16.4
14 Sep 2020 DEN TEN @ DEN 16:14 15 78 5.2 1 3 8 2.7 0 14.1 16.6
29 Dec 2019 LAC LAC @ KC 21:31 14 46 3.3 1 6 76 12.7 0 21.2 24.2
22 Dec 2019 LAC OAK @ LAC 24:17 9 15 1.7 2 6 32 5.3 0 19.7 22.7
15 Dec 2019 LAC MIN @ LAC 39:10 7 28 4 0 5 36 7.2 0 4.9 9.4
8 Dec 2019 LAC LAC @ JAC 45:10 12 55 4.6 1 5 29 5.8 0 16.9 19.4
1 Dec 2019 LAC LAC @ DEN 20:23 20 99 5 0 2 11 5.5 0 12 13

Eat the chalk. Gordon is the only back we can really count on in this game and I don’t hate using him as the MVP or Captain spot. Phillip Lindsay is doubtful and Royce Freeman has a total of 5 carries in the last two weeks. With third string quarterback Brett Rypien under center, look for the Broncos to try and grind down this clock and lean on the run. Gordon has had a couple of mediocre performances but he was facing possibly two of the best defenses in the league in the Steelers and the Buccaneers. This is a play on workload so fire up Gordon and look elsewhere to diversify.

Next game:

NYJ @ KC

Time:

Sun, 1st Nov, 01:00PM ET

Odds:

NYJ +20.5 / O/U 48.0

WR

Jamison Crowder

New York Jets

Salary: 6,300 5,800
FPPG: 16.20 22.10
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
NYJ @ MIA Sun, 18 Oct 2020, 4:05PM ET 6,600 8.30 6,100 11.80
ARI @ NYJ Sun, 11 Oct 2020, 1:00PM ET 6,300 21.60 5,800 28.60
DEN @ NYJ Thu, 1 Oct 2020, 8:20PM ET 6,000 13.90 5,200 20.40
NYJ @ BUF Sun, 13 Sep 2020, 1:00PM ET 6,000 21.00 5,200 27.50
NYJ @ BUF Sun, 29 Dec 2019, 1:00PM ET 5,600 16.60 5,100 20.60
PIT @ NYJ Sun, 22 Dec 2019, 1:00PM ET 6,000 8.00 5,400 10.00
NYJ @ BAL Thu, 12 Dec 2019, 8:20PM ET 5,700 24.00 4,900 27.00
MIA @ NYJ Sun, 8 Dec 2019, 1:00PM ET 6,000 4.50 5,300 6.00
NYJ @ CIN Sun, 1 Dec 2019, 1:00PM ET 6,300 1.80 5,600 2.80
OAK @ NYJ Sun, 24 Nov 2019, 1:00PM ET 6,500 2.80 6,200 3.80
Season Team ReR ReTa ReYd ReYd/G ReTD Yd/Ta
2020 NYJ 29 46 383 95.8 2 8.33
2019 NYJ 78 122 833 52.1 6 6.83
Date Team Game Score Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
18 Oct 2020 NYJ NYJ @ MIA 0:24 7 48 6.9 0 8.3 11.8
11 Oct 2020 NYJ ARI @ NYJ 30:10 8 116 14.5 1 21.6 28.6
1 Oct 2020 NYJ DEN @ NYJ 37:28 7 104 14.9 0 13.9 20.4
13 Sep 2020 NYJ NYJ @ BUF 17:27 7 115 16.4 1 21 27.5
29 Dec 2019 NYJ NYJ @ BUF 13:6 8 66 8.3 1 16.6 20.6
22 Dec 2019 NYJ PIT @ NYJ 10:16 4 60 15 0 8 10
12 Dec 2019 NYJ NYJ @ BAL 21:42 6 90 15 2 24 27
8 Dec 2019 NYJ MIA @ NYJ 21:22 3 30 10 0 4.5 6
1 Dec 2019 NYJ NYJ @ CIN 6:22 2 8 4 0 1.8 2.8
24 Nov 2019 NYJ OAK @ NYJ 3:34 2 18 9 0 2.8 3.8

Crowder is expected back and is really the only offensive weapon Sam Darnold has at his disposal. Sure, Braxton Berrios has had a couple of decent weeks, but if you are looking for upside, Crowder is the target leader and big play guy all in one for the Jets. It remains unclear as to how healthy Crowder is but in a game that lacks any sort of weapons, Crowder may be one of the only players that puts up any points at all.

Next game:

LAC @ DEN

Time:

Sun, 1st Nov, 04:05PM ET

Odds:

DEN +1.5 / O/U 44.5

TE

Noah Fant

Denver Broncos

Salary: 5,700 4,700
FPPG: 9.08 12.30
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
KC @ DEN Sun, 25 Oct 2020, 4:25PM ET 6,000 5.30 4,800 6.80
DEN @ NYJ Thu, 1 Oct 2020, 8:20PM ET 5,900 6.00 5,800 8.50
TB @ DEN Sun, 27 Sep 2020, 4:25PM ET 5,800 7.10 5,400 9.60
DEN @ PIT Sun, 20 Sep 2020, 1:00PM ET 5,300 15.70 4,400 17.70
TEN @ DEN Mon, 14 Sep 2020, 10:10PM ET 5,400 16.60 4,600 19.10
OAK @ DEN Sun, 29 Dec 2019, 4:25PM ET 5,600 0.90 3,600 1.40
DET @ DEN Sun, 22 Dec 2019, 4:05PM ET 5,900 2.00 3,700 3.00
DEN @ KC Sun, 15 Dec 2019, 1:00PM ET 5,700 6.60 4,100 7.60
DEN @ HOU Sun, 8 Dec 2019, 1:00PM ET 4,800 19.30 3,400 24.30
LAC @ DEN Sun, 1 Dec 2019, 4:25PM ET 5,100 1.00 3,700 1.50
Season Team ReR ReTa ReYd ReYd/G ReTD Yd/Ta
2020 DEN 19 27 219 54.8 2 8.11
2019 DEN 40 66 562 35.1 3 8.52
Date Team Game Score Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
25 Oct 2020 DEN KC @ DEN 43:16 3 38 12.7 0 5.3 6.8
1 Oct 2020 DEN DEN @ NYJ 37:28 5 35 7 0 6 8.5
27 Sep 2020 DEN TB @ DEN 28:10 5 46 9.2 0 7.1 9.6
20 Sep 2020 DEN DEN @ PIT 21:26 4 57 14.3 1 15.7 17.7
14 Sep 2020 DEN TEN @ DEN 16:14 5 81 16.2 1 16.6 19.1
29 Dec 2019 DEN OAK @ DEN 15:16 1 4 4 0 0.9 1.4
22 Dec 2019 DEN DET @ DEN 17:27 2 10 5 0 2 3
15 Dec 2019 DEN DEN @ KC 3:23 2 56 28 0 6.6 7.6
8 Dec 2019 DEN DEN @ HOU 38:24 4 113 28.3 1 19.3 24.3
1 Dec 2019 DEN LAC @ DEN 20:23 1 5 5 0 1 1.5

People may look at Fant’s drop off in production the last couple of games as a downfall, but remember this is the third quarterback the young tight end has played with over the last two games. Fant had 10 (!) targets last game and the Jets secondary remains a glaring weakness so far this season, especially in the slot. Sure it could be Jeudy, but inexperienced quarterbacks have a tendency to lean on their tight ends. I don’t see the Broncos airing out to K.J. Hamler down the field and expect short dump off passes as well as leaning on the run in this game.

Next game:

NYJ @ KC

Time:

Sun, 1st Nov, 01:00PM ET

Odds:

NYJ +20.5 / O/U 48.0

QB

Sam Darnold

New York Jets

Salary: 6,500 4,800
FPPG: 11.48 12.00
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
BUF @ NYJ Sun, 25 Oct 2020, 1:00PM ET 6,700 2.80 5,000 2.80
DEN @ NYJ Thu, 1 Oct 2020, 8:20PM ET 6,700 23.60 5,300 23.60
NYJ @ IND Sun, 27 Sep 2020, 4:05PM ET 6,600 9.72 5,000 9.72
SF @ NYJ Sun, 20 Sep 2020, 1:00PM ET 6,600 11.86 5,100 11.86
NYJ @ BUF Sun, 13 Sep 2020, 1:00PM ET 6,800 12.20 5,500 12.20
NYJ @ BUF Sun, 29 Dec 2019, 1:00PM ET 7,200 10.76 5,000 10.76
PIT @ NYJ Sun, 22 Dec 2019, 1:00PM ET 7,400 9.62 5,300 10.62
NYJ @ BAL Thu, 12 Dec 2019, 8:20PM ET 7,600 16.82 5,300 17.82
MIA @ NYJ Sun, 8 Dec 2019, 1:00PM ET 7,700 18.10 6,000 18.10
NYJ @ CIN Sun, 1 Dec 2019, 1:00PM ET 7,600 10.46 6,100 10.46
Season Team PaYd/G PaTD Pa QB Rating PaYd/Pa Avg
2020 NYJ 227.3 3 70.7 5.7
2019 NYJ 237.4 19 84.3 6.9
Date Team Game Score Comp/Att PaYd PaTD PaInt RuAtt RuYd RuTD FD FPts DK FPts
25 Oct 2020 NYJ BUF @ NYJ 18:10 12/23 120 0 2 0 0 0 2.8 2.8
1 Oct 2020 NYJ DEN @ NYJ 37:28 23/42 230 0 0 6 84 1 23.6 23.6
27 Sep 2020 NYJ NYJ @ IND 7:36 17/29 168 1 3 5 20 0 9.72 9.72
20 Sep 2020 NYJ SF @ NYJ 31:13 21/32 179 1 0 2 7 0 11.86 11.86
13 Sep 2020 NYJ NYJ @ BUF 17:27 21/35 215 1 1 1 6 0 12.2 12.2
29 Dec 2019 NYJ NYJ @ BUF 13:6 23/36 199 1 1 3 -2 0 10.76 10.76
22 Dec 2019 NYJ PIT @ NYJ 10:16 16/26 183 1 0 4 3 0 9.62 10.62
12 Dec 2019 NYJ NYJ @ BAL 21:42 18/32 218 2 1 1 11 0 16.82 17.82
8 Dec 2019 NYJ MIA @ NYJ 21:22 20/36 270 2 1 3 3 0 18.1 18.1
1 Dec 2019 NYJ NYJ @ CIN 6:22 28/48 239 0 0 2 9 0 10.46 10.46

With Crowder back I would definitely lean towards Darnold over Rypien. We somewhat know what Darnold is and in a game like this he should be able to put up a higher floor than Rypien with his best receiver back in the lineup. Still, neither quarterback offers immense upside so this could be a rare slate where you fade both and just plug in some high upside receivers instead and hope they boom on some big plays.

Next game:

LAC @ DEN

Time:

Sun, 1st Nov, 04:05PM ET

Odds:

DEN +1.5 / O/U 44.5

WR

Jerry Jeudy

Denver Broncos

Salary: 5,600 4,800
FPPG: 8.22 8.90
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
KC @ DEN Sun, 25 Oct 2020, 4:25PM ET 5,600 3.00 5,100 4.00
DEN @ NE Sun, 18 Oct 2020, 1:00PM ET 5,700 4.20 5,500 5.20
DEN @ NYJ Thu, 1 Oct 2020, 8:20PM ET 5,600 13.10 5,300 14.10
TB @ DEN Sun, 27 Sep 2020, 4:25PM ET 5,300 8.00 5,000 10.50
DEN @ PIT Sun, 20 Sep 2020, 1:00PM ET 5,300 8.20 4,900 10.20
TEN @ DEN Mon, 14 Sep 2020, 10:10PM ET 5,200 7.60 4,200 9.60
Season Team ReR ReTa ReYd ReYd/G ReTD Yd/Ta
2020 DEN 17 33 266 53.2 1 8.06
Date Team Game Score Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
25 Oct 2020 DEN KC @ DEN 43:16 2 20 10 0 3 4
18 Oct 2020 DEN DEN @ NE 18:12 2 32 16 0 4.2 5.2
1 Oct 2020 DEN DEN @ NYJ 37:28 2 61 30.5 1 13.1 14.1
27 Sep 2020 DEN TB @ DEN 28:10 5 55 11 0 8 10.5
20 Sep 2020 DEN DEN @ PIT 21:26 4 62 15.5 0 8.2 10.2
14 Sep 2020 DEN TEN @ DEN 16:14 4 56 14 0 7.6 9.6

If I am picking one Broncos wide receiver it is Jeudy, because of his ability to take short passes and turn them into big plays. Obviously if you are throwing in multiple lineups you can put Hamler in a couple and hope he hits a big play. Jeudy has received no less than 7 targets in every game so far and it is only a matter of time until he takes one of those to the house. With a new quarterback in, expect short passes around the line of scrimmage rather than a deep ball to Hamler.

 

Final Thoughts: 

Man this is an ugly game, there is no other way to put it. With an over/under of 40 and two struggling offenses, it may not be a terrible idea to mix in the kickers on FanDuel or the Jets DST on DraftKings to mix things up. The Colts DST feasted on Darnold last week and although they are a better unit than the Broncos, there is still a chance Darnold gets careless with the ball. Best of luck and we’ll see you again on Saturday for the main slate GPP Targets!