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Week 4 NFL DFS Value Picks with Adam Strangis

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Hello to all the readers out there! For those of you who might not know me, my name is Adam Strangis. I’m the other Adam on the RotoCurve Podcast and have been invited to write a weekly article for the site as well! I’m an avid DFS and fantasy player and will be trying to steer lineups in the right direction for the rest of the NFL season!

Welcome into the debut article that will be focused on finding some value plays every week for NFL DFS! The goal here is to highlight players that are either miss-priced or have some factors working in their direction for the upcoming week.

The general goal is to unearth some gems that can get you around 2.5 to 3x return on their salary so without any further ado, let’s get to it!

 

Quarterback

Next game:

Time:

Odds:

QB

Ryan Tannehill

Salary: 7,700 5,500
FPPG: 19.18 19.00
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
TEN @ KC Sun, 19 Jan 2020, 3:05PM ET 7,700 17.46 5,500 17.46
TEN @ BAL Sat, 11 Jan 2020, 8:15PM ET 7,800 18.82 5,400 18.82
TEN @ NE Sat, 4 Jan 2020, 8:25PM ET 7,800 6.98 6,300 6.98
TEN @ HOU Sun, 29 Dec 2019, 4:25PM ET 7,900 17.92 6,800 17.92
NO @ TEN Sun, 22 Dec 2019, 1:00PM ET 7,800 23.68 6,600 23.68
HOU @ TEN Sun, 15 Dec 2019, 1:00PM ET 7,600 25.16 6,500 25.16
TEN @ OAK Sun, 8 Dec 2019, 4:25PM ET 7,300 28.54 5,800 31.54
TEN @ IND Sun, 1 Dec 2019, 1:00PM ET 7,300 13.78 5,700 14.78
JAC @ TEN Sun, 24 Nov 2019, 4:05PM ET 7,100 32.36 5,300 33.36
KC @ TEN Sun, 10 Nov 2019, 1:00PM ET 7,200 18.94 5,100 19.94
Season Team PaYd/G PaTD Pa QB Rating PaYd/Pa Avg
2019 TEN 134.7 5 98.5 6.2
2018 MIA 193.4 17 92.7 7.2
Date Team Game Score Comp/Att PaYd PaTD PaInt RuAtt RuYd RuTD FD FPts DK FPts
19 Jan 2020 TEN TEN @ KC 24:35 21/31 209 2 0 3 11 0 17.46 17.46
11 Jan 2020 TEN TEN @ BAL 28:12 7/14 88 2 0 6 13 1 18.82 18.82
4 Jan 2020 TEN TEN @ NE 20:13 8/15 72 1 1 4 11 0 6.98 6.98
29 Dec 2019 TEN TEN @ HOU 35:14 13/20 198 2 0 5 20 0 17.92 17.92
22 Dec 2019 TEN NO @ TEN 38:28 17/27 272 3 0 1 8 0 23.68 23.68
15 Dec 2019 TEN HOU @ TEN 24:21 22/36 279 2 1 3 10 1 25.16 25.16
8 Dec 2019 TEN TEN @ OAK 42:21 21/27 391 3 1 4 19 0 28.54 31.54
1 Dec 2019 TEN TEN @ IND 31:17 17/22 182 2 0 4 5 0 13.78 14.78
24 Nov 2019 TEN JAC @ TEN 20:42 14/18 259 2 0 7 40 2 32.36 33.36
10 Nov 2019 TEN KC @ TEN 32:35 13/19 181 2 0 3 37 0 18.94 19.94

I’ll save you the hassle of talking about Baker “Money” Mayfield again because you’re likely sick of hearing Adam and I talk about him. He’s still a great play in Oakland but a very nice pivot from Mayfield and Andy Dalton in Atlanta is Ryan Tannehill. Going into Foxborough is no easy task but the Patriots defense isn’t scaring anyone right now. They have allowed the 10th most passing yards in football through three weeks and are tied for the third most touchdown passes allowed. Tannehill is guiding this Miami offense to the 11th most points so far and he’s quietly thrown seven touchdowns while racking up a 121.8 passer rating. The scary part is he’s yet to throw more than 28 times in any single game. Tannehill is only going to cost you roughly about 11 percent of your salary cap on either site. If the Patriots offense figures out what they’re doing and starts putting points up, the Dolphins are going to need to throw to keep up with Tommy Touchdown. Only two games have a higher over/under on Sunday so Vegas certainly seems to think this game could be a potential shootout. Tannehill is priced as a game manager and could be one of the best values on the board.

 

Running Back

Next game:

Time:

Odds:

RB

Kerryon Johnson

Detroit Lions

Salary: 4,500 4,500
FPPG: 9.81 11.10
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
GB @ DET Sun, 29 Dec 2019, 1:00PM ET 4,500 11.30 4,500 11.30
DET @ DEN Sun, 22 Dec 2019, 4:05PM ET 4,500 4.80 4,900 5.30
MIN @ DET Sun, 20 Oct 2019, 1:00PM ET 6,800 2.30 5,100 2.30
DET @ GB Mon, 14 Oct 2019, 8:15PM ET 6,900 13.10 5,400 14.10
KC @ DET Sun, 29 Sep 2019, 1:00PM ET 6,500 14.70 5,400 19.70
DET @ PHI Sun, 22 Sep 2019, 1:00PM ET 6,600 10.80 5,600 11.30
LAC @ DET Sun, 15 Sep 2019, 1:00PM ET 6,600 15.80 5,700 16.80
DET @ ARI Sun, 8 Sep 2019, 4:25PM ET 7,000 7.20 5,800 8.20
CAR @ DET Sun, 18 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,200 16.70 5,800 17.70
DET @ CHI Sun, 11 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,900 21.90 4,700 25.90
Season Team RuAtt RuYd/G RuTD RuYd/R Avg RecR RecTa RecYd/G RecTD
2019 DET 113 50.4 3 3.6 10 15 15.9 1
2018 DET 118 64.1 3 5.4 32 39 21.3 1
Date Team Game Score RuAtt RuYd RuAvg RuTD Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
29 Dec 2019 DET GB @ DET 23:20 11 53 4.8 1 0 0 0 0 11.3 11.3
22 Dec 2019 DET DET @ DEN 17:27 10 42 4.2 0 1 1 1 0 4.8 5.3
20 Oct 2019 DET MIN @ DET 42:30 5 23 4.6 0 0 0 0 0 2.3 2.3
14 Oct 2019 DET DET @ GB 22:23 13 34 2.6 1 2 27 13.5 0 13.1 14.1
29 Sep 2019 DET KC @ DET 34:30 26 125 4.8 0 2 32 16 0 14.7 19.7
22 Sep 2019 DET DET @ PHI 27:24 20 36 1.8 1 1 7 7 0 10.8 11.3
15 Sep 2019 DET LAC @ DET 10:13 12 41 3.4 0 2 47 23.5 1 15.8 16.8
8 Sep 2019 DET DET @ ARI 27:27 16 49 3.1 0 2 13 6.5 0 7.2 8.2
18 Nov 2018 DET CAR @ DET 19:20 15 87 5.8 1 2 10 5 0 16.7 17.7
11 Nov 2018 DET DET @ CHI 22:34 14 51 3.6 1 6 38 6.3 1 21.9 25.9

This isn’t just about chasing Johnson’s breakout game on national TV this past Sunday night. While he showed off his full set of skills in taking apart the Patriots linebacking corps, he now gets a matchup with the Dallas defense that will be missing Sean Lee. Last year, teams rushed for 1.3 more yards per carry and Dallas is allowing eight receptions a game to running backs. Johnson has yet to see 50 percent of the snaps but he’s seen his touches raise every week, going for eight to 13 to 18 touches this past week. This week could easily be the week he breaks the 20 touch barrier in what is now a fantastic matchup against the Cowboys defense. In addition, Dallas is only averaging 13.7 points per game this year. The chances of them running away with this game are slim, meaning Theo Riddick shouldn’t have a big role. Johnson and LeGarrette Blount both had 18 touches last week and Johnson had 110 total yards to Blount’s 65. It’s clear who the best back is in MoTown and Johnson is far too cheap this upcoming Sunday. Sony Michel is now likely to be chalky with the Patriots putting Rex Burkhead going to the IR but I believe Johnson is just as good a play.

 

Next game:

Time:

Odds:

RB

Austin Ekeler

Los Angeles Chargers

Salary: 6,800 6,200
FPPG: 16.64 20.30
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
LAC @ KC Sun, 29 Dec 2019, 1:00PM ET 6,800 13.40 6,200 17.90
OAK @ LAC Sun, 22 Dec 2019, 4:05PM ET 6,800 9.40 6,100 11.90
MIN @ LAC Sun, 15 Dec 2019, 4:05PM ET 7,200 10.60 6,700 13.10
LAC @ JAC Sun, 8 Dec 2019, 4:05PM ET 7,000 29.30 6,300 37.30
LAC @ DEN Sun, 1 Dec 2019, 4:25PM ET 6,700 14.70 5,700 16.70
KC @ LAC Mon, 18 Nov 2019, 8:15PM ET 6,100 17.20 5,300 24.20
LAC @ OAK Thu, 7 Nov 2019, 8:20PM ET 6,300 11.80 5,500 12.80
GB @ LAC Sun, 3 Nov 2019, 4:25PM ET 6,500 11.30 6,000 13.30
LAC @ CHI Sun, 27 Oct 2019, 1:00PM ET 6,800 9.20 5,900 10.20
LAC @ TEN Sun, 20 Oct 2019, 4:05PM ET 6,900 22.00 6,200 28.50
Season Team RuAtt RuYd/G RuTD RuYd/R Avg RecR RecTa RecYd/G RecTD
2019 LAC 132 34.8 3 4.2 92 108 62.1 8
2018 LAC 106 39.6 3 5.2 39 53 28.9 3
Date Team Game Score RuAtt RuYd RuAvg RuTD Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
29 Dec 2019 LAC LAC @ KC 21:31 9 46 5.1 0 9 43 4.8 0 13.4 17.9
22 Dec 2019 LAC OAK @ LAC 24:17 4 11 2.8 0 5 58 11.6 0 9.4 11.9
15 Dec 2019 LAC MIN @ LAC 39:10 7 19 2.7 0 5 62 12.4 0 10.6 13.1
8 Dec 2019 LAC LAC @ JAC 45:10 8 101 12.6 0 4 112 28 1 29.3 37.3
1 Dec 2019 LAC LAC @ DEN 20:23 9 16 1.8 0 4 51 12.8 1 14.7 16.7
18 Nov 2019 LAC KC @ LAC 24:17 5 24 4.8 0 8 108 13.5 0 17.2 24.2
7 Nov 2019 LAC LAC @ OAK 24:26 6 19 3.2 0 2 29 14.5 1 11.8 12.8
3 Nov 2019 LAC GB @ LAC 11:26 12 70 5.8 0 4 23 5.8 0 11.3 13.3
27 Oct 2019 LAC LAC @ CHI 17:16 3 3 1 0 2 19 9.5 1 9.2 10.2
20 Oct 2019 LAC LAC @ TEN 20:23 5 7 1.4 0 7 118 16.9 1 22 28.5

I will be the first one to say that Ekeler is more attractive on DraftKings this week since he’s a lower percentage of the budget and DK is full PPR. Seeing as how Johnson and someone like Sony Michel is right at the same price range, Ekeler could fly under the radar but he shouldn’t. The Chargers are the highest favorite on the slate since the 49ers lost quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. San Francisco has given up the 12th most points to running backs but the weak link in that stat is they’ve allowed the fourth most receptions to the running back position. Ekeler and Melvin Gordon have combined for a 32 percent target share so far and if the Chargers get out to a lead, they may take it easy on Gordon. Of course, he’s going to get his but maybe the snaps get closer to the 60-40 split we saw when they smoked Buffalo in Week 2. Ekeler got 14 touches in that game and could see something similar this week.

 

Wide Receiver

Next game:

Time:

Odds:

WR

Antonio Callaway

Salary: 5,300 3,100
FPPG: 3.23 4.20
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
CLE @ DEN Sun, 3 Nov 2019, 4:25PM ET 5,000 7.60 3,300 9.60
CLE @ NE Sun, 27 Oct 2019, 4:25PM ET 5,000 2.10 3,300 3.10
SEA @ CLE Sun, 13 Oct 2019, 1:00PM ET 5,100 3.20 4,200 4.20
CLE @ SF Mon, 7 Oct 2019, 8:15PM ET 5,100 0 4,300 0
CLE @ BAL Sun, 30 Dec 2018, 4:25PM ET 4,800 15.90 3,700 17.90
CIN @ CLE Sun, 23 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,100 0 3,900 0
CLE @ DEN Sat, 15 Dec 2018, 8:20PM ET 4,800 12.00 3,900 14.50
CAR @ CLE Sun, 9 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,400 0.50 3,900 1.00
CLE @ HOU Sun, 2 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,500 7.90 4,100 10.40
CLE @ CIN Sun, 25 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 4,800 14.20 3,800 16.20
Season Team ReR ReTa ReYd ReYd/G ReTD Yd/Ta
2019 CLE 8 15 89 22.3 0 5.93
2018 CLE 43 79 586 36.6 5 7.42
Date Team Game Score Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
3 Nov 2019 CLE CLE @ DEN 19:24 4 56 14 0 7.6 9.6
27 Oct 2019 CLE CLE @ NE 13:27 2 11 5.5 0 2.1 3.1
13 Oct 2019 CLE SEA @ CLE 32:28 2 22 11 0 3.2 4.2
7 Oct 2019 CLE CLE @ SF 3:31 0 0 0 0 0 0
30 Dec 2018 CLE CLE @ BAL 24:26 4 79 19.8 1 15.9 17.9
23 Dec 2018 CLE CIN @ CLE 18:26 0 0 0 0 0 0
15 Dec 2018 CLE CLE @ DEN 17:16 5 35 7 1 12 14.5
9 Dec 2018 CLE CAR @ CLE 20:26 1 0 0 0 0.5 1
2 Dec 2018 CLE CLE @ HOU 13:29 3 84 28 0 7.9 10.4
25 Nov 2018 CLE CLE @ CIN 35:20 4 62 15.5 1 14.2 16.2

Well, it looks like I’m going to get to talk about Baker for at least a little bit. Callaway is a talented receiver that would have been a much higher pick in the draft if it wasn’t for off the field issues. Now that Josh Gordon is in New England, he’s the number two receiver in the offense and saw 10 targets during the Thursday night game. His price is incredibly low for his role target-wise and he carries the highest aDOT(16.6 to 11.7 for Jarvis Landry) of all Cleveland receivers. Despite having a rough game with drops and iffy routes, Callaway was on the field for a career high 89 percent last week. Oakland is struggling defending the pass and can’t get pressure on the quarterback. If the Raiders can’t get to Mayfield, he’s going to be able to find Callaway deep down the field, as a familiar face points out –


At his price point, a stat line of 4/60/1 smashes his tag and the ceiling is much higher for Week 4.

 

Next game:

Time:

Odds:

WR

Geronimo Allison

Green Bay Packers

Salary: 4,600 3,700
FPPG: 3.89 4.60
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
GB @ SF Sun, 19 Jan 2020, 6:40PM ET 4,600 1.80 3,700 2.80
SEA @ GB Sun, 12 Jan 2020, 6:40PM ET 4,600 1.60 3,600 2.10
GB @ DET Sun, 29 Dec 2019, 1:00PM ET 4,600 3.20 3,700 4.70
GB @ MIN Mon, 23 Dec 2019, 8:15PM ET 4,600 2.00 3,300 2.00
CHI @ GB Sun, 15 Dec 2019, 1:00PM ET 4,600 2.90 3,400 3.90
WSH @ GB Sun, 8 Dec 2019, 1:00PM ET 4,600 1.60 3,400 2.10
GB @ NYG Sun, 1 Dec 2019, 1:00PM ET 4,900 3.00 3,800 4.00
GB @ SF Sun, 24 Nov 2019, 8:20PM ET 4,900 2.40 3,500 3.90
CAR @ GB Sun, 10 Nov 2019, 4:25PM ET 5,300 2.10 3,900 3.60
GB @ LAC Sun, 3 Nov 2019, 4:25PM ET 5,400 3.10 4,200 4.10
Season Team ReR ReTa ReYd ReYd/G ReTD Yd/Ta
2019 GB 3 4 19 9.5 0 4.75
2018 GB 20 30 303 60.6 2 10.10
Date Team Game Score Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
19 Jan 2020 GB GB @ SF 20:37 2 8 4 0 1.8 2.8
12 Jan 2020 GB SEA @ GB 23:28 1 11 11 0 1.6 2.1
29 Dec 2019 GB GB @ DET 23:20 3 17 5.7 0 3.2 4.7
23 Dec 2019 GB GB @ MIN 23:10 0 0 0 0 2 2
15 Dec 2019 GB CHI @ GB 13:21 2 19 9.5 0 2.9 3.9
8 Dec 2019 GB WSH @ GB 15:20 1 11 11 0 1.6 2.1
1 Dec 2019 GB GB @ NYG 31:13 2 20 10 0 3 4
24 Nov 2019 GB GB @ SF 8:37 3 9 3 0 2.4 3.9
10 Nov 2019 GB CAR @ GB 16:24 3 6 2 0 2.1 3.6
3 Nov 2019 GB GB @ LAC 11:26 2 21 10.5 0 3.1 4.1

This is a very important game for the Green Bay Packers. They would be winless if it wasn’t for Aaron Rodgers bringing them back from the brink Week 1 and they find themselves up against a feisty Buffalo defense. The best player on that unit is corner Tre’Davious White, who basically negated Vikings receiver Stefon Diggs on Sunday. It would be a safe assumption that he’s going to try to do the same to Davante Adams and that means I want to play Allison in some spots this week. He’s produced more yards and touchdowns than Randall Cobb on fewer targets so far and he’s almost doubling the aDOT for Cobb. He also has the highest catch rate on the Packers so that’s a quick way to earn the trust from Rodgers. In three games, Allison has drawn at least four targets, racked up a minimum 64 receiving yards and found the end zone twice. He’s the cheapest part of the passing attack on both sites and is starting to feel relatively safe, despite being the “third” wheel in the passing game.

 

Tight End

Next game:

Time:

Odds:

TE

Dallas Goedert

Philadelphia Eagles

Salary: 6,600 5,200
FPPG: 7.71 9.80
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
SEA @ PHI Sun, 5 Jan 2020, 4:40PM ET 6,700 10.80 5,200 14.30
PHI @ NYG Sun, 29 Dec 2019, 4:25PM ET 6,400 8.50 4,900 10.50
DAL @ PHI Sun, 22 Dec 2019, 4:25PM ET 5,900 19.60 4,100 24.10
PHI @ WSH Sun, 15 Dec 2019, 1:00PM ET 5,700 8.00 4,300 10.50
NYG @ PHI Mon, 9 Dec 2019, 8:15PM ET 5,700 5.60 4,300 7.10
PHI @ MIA Sun, 1 Dec 2019, 1:00PM ET 5,200 9.60 4,100 12.60
SEA @ PHI Sun, 24 Nov 2019, 1:00PM ET 5,200 4.70 3,700 9.20
NE @ PHI Sun, 17 Nov 2019, 4:25PM ET 5,000 11.10 3,200 12.60
CHI @ PHI Sun, 3 Nov 2019, 1:00PM ET 5,000 5.90 3,100 7.90
PHI @ BUF Sun, 27 Oct 2019, 1:00PM ET 4,800 9.70 2,800 11.20
Season Team ReR ReTa ReYd ReYd/G ReTD Yd/Ta
2019 PHI 7 8 73 73 0 9.13
2018 PHI 33 44 334 20.9 4 7.59
Date Team Game Score Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
5 Jan 2020 PHI SEA @ PHI 17:9 7 73 10.4 0 10.8 14.3
29 Dec 2019 PHI PHI @ NYG 34:17 4 65 16.3 0 8.5 10.5
22 Dec 2019 PHI DAL @ PHI 9:17 9 91 10.1 1 19.6 24.1
15 Dec 2019 PHI PHI @ WSH 37:27 5 55 11 0 8 10.5
9 Dec 2019 PHI NYG @ PHI 17:23 3 41 13.7 0 5.6 7.1
1 Dec 2019 PHI PHI @ MIA 31:37 6 66 11 0 9.6 12.6
24 Nov 2019 PHI SEA @ PHI 17:9 7 32 4.6 0 4.7 9.2
17 Nov 2019 PHI NE @ PHI 17:10 3 36 12 1 11.1 12.6
3 Nov 2019 PHI CHI @ PHI 14:22 4 39 9.8 0 5.9 7.9
27 Oct 2019 PHI PHI @ BUF 31:13 3 22 7.3 1 9.7 11.2

I had originally been on Goedert only if Alshon Jeffery remained out for the Eagles but I’m starting to shift my opinion on that. Jeffery has been cleared for contact but his status is not yet known for Sunday. Even if he plays, Goedert is a worthwhile target since he saw his snaps skyrocket over 60 percent this past week. What was very interesting was he spent over 40 percent of his snaps in the slot. My assumption was Goedert may have been used as an extra blocker but that does not appear to be the case. With or without Jeffery, the Eagles have very little depth at wide receiver. Goedert ran 22 routes last week compared to a total of six during the first two weeks. The usage spike seems like it should continue as it gives the Eagles a different dimension and they might struggle to run the ball against the Titans. Coach Doug Pederson actually made a point to say Goedert has improved his blocking, which should lead to more opportunities to be on the field. Some of those snaps will be spent blocking but 25 or so routes against defenses that are focused on other players is a gold mine at a position starved of solid plays.


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