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Week 4 NFL DFS Value Picks with Adam Strangis

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Hello to all the readers out there! For those of you who might not know me, my name is Adam Strangis. I’m the other Adam on the RotoCurve Podcast and have been invited to write a weekly article for the site as well! I’m an avid DFS and fantasy player and will be trying to steer lineups in the right direction for the rest of the NFL season!

Welcome into the debut article that will be focused on finding some value plays every week for NFL DFS! The goal here is to highlight players that are either miss-priced or have some factors working in their direction for the upcoming week.

The general goal is to unearth some gems that can get you around 2.5 to 3x return on their salary so without any further ado, let’s get to it!

 

Quarterback

Next game:

IND @ TEN

Time:

Sun, 15th Sep, 01:00PM ET

Odds:

TEN -3.5 / O/U 43.5

QB

Ryan Tannehill

Tennessee Titans

Salary: 6,000 4,300
FPPG: -0.20 -0.20
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
TEN @ CLE Sun, 8 Sep 2019, 1:00PM ET 6,000 -0.20 4,400 -0.20
MIA @ BUF Sun, 30 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,800 9.58 4,600 11.08
JAC @ MIA Sun, 23 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,800 11.04 4,600 11.04
MIA @ MIN Sun, 16 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 7,100 4.42 4,900 4.42
NE @ MIA Sun, 9 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,900 23.90 4,800 23.90
BUF @ MIA Sun, 2 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,600 15.98 4,900 15.98
MIA @ IND Sun, 25 Nov 2018, 4:25PM ET 6,600 17.56 5,000 17.56
MIA @ CIN Sun, 7 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,600 9.10 5,200 10.10
MIA @ NE Sun, 30 Sep 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,800 1.00 5,500 2.00
OAK @ MIA Sun, 23 Sep 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,600 26.16 5,300 26.16
Season Team PaYd/G PaTD Pa QB Rating PaYd/Pa Avg
2018 MIA 193.4 17 92.7 7.2
Date Team Game Score Comp/Att PaYd PaTD PaInt RuAtt RuYd RuTD FD FPts DK FPts
8 Sep 2019 TEN TEN @ CLE 43:13 0 0 0 2 -2 0 -0.2 -0.2
30 Dec 2018 MIA MIA @ BUF 17:42 18/31 147 0 2 2 9 0 9.58 11.08
23 Dec 2018 MIA JAC @ MIA 17:7 15/22 146 1 1 3 22 0 11.04 11.04
16 Dec 2018 MIA MIA @ MIN 17:41 11/24 108 0 0 1 1 0 4.42 4.42
9 Dec 2018 MIA NE @ MIA 33:34 14/19 265 3 0 1 13 0 23.9 23.9
2 Dec 2018 MIA BUF @ MIA 17:21 16/24 137 3 1 3 -5 0 15.98 15.98
25 Nov 2018 MIA MIA @ IND 24:27 17/25 204 2 0 3 14 0 17.56 17.56
7 Oct 2018 MIA MIA @ CIN 17:27 20/35 185 1 2 3 17 0 9.1 10.1
30 Sep 2018 MIA MIA @ NE 7:38 11/20 100 0 1 1 0 0 1 2
23 Sep 2018 MIA OAK @ MIA 20:28 17/23 289 3 0 3 26 0 26.16 26.16

I’ll save you the hassle of talking about Baker “Money” Mayfield again because you’re likely sick of hearing Adam and I talk about him. He’s still a great play in Oakland but a very nice pivot from Mayfield and Andy Dalton in Atlanta is Ryan Tannehill. Going into Foxborough is no easy task but the Patriots defense isn’t scaring anyone right now. They have allowed the 10th most passing yards in football through three weeks and are tied for the third most touchdown passes allowed. Tannehill is guiding this Miami offense to the 11th most points so far and he’s quietly thrown seven touchdowns while racking up a 121.8 passer rating. The scary part is he’s yet to throw more than 28 times in any single game. Tannehill is only going to cost you roughly about 11 percent of your salary cap on either site. If the Patriots offense figures out what they’re doing and starts putting points up, the Dolphins are going to need to throw to keep up with Tommy Touchdown. Only two games have a higher over/under on Sunday so Vegas certainly seems to think this game could be a potential shootout. Tannehill is priced as a game manager and could be one of the best values on the board.

 

Running Back

Next game:

LAC @ DET

Time:

Sun, 15th Sep, 01:00PM ET

Odds:

DET +1.5 / O/U 46.5

RB

Kerryon Johnson

Detroit Lions

Salary: 6,600 5,700
FPPG: 7.20 8.20
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
DET @ ARI Sun, 8 Sep 2019, 4:25PM ET 7,000 7.20 5,800 8.20
CAR @ DET Sun, 18 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,200 16.70 5,800 17.70
DET @ CHI Sun, 11 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,900 21.90 4,700 25.90
DET @ MIN Sun, 4 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,400 5.90 5,600 7.40
SEA @ DET Sun, 28 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,900 12.10 5,300 15.10
DET @ MIA Sun, 21 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,500 18.90 4,500 22.90
GB @ DET Sun, 7 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,100 9.50 4,600 10.50
DET @ DAL Sun, 30 Sep 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,700 12.10 4,400 12.60
NE @ DET Sun, 23 Sep 2018, 8:20PM ET 5,700 12.00 4,700 16.00
DET @ SF Sun, 16 Sep 2018, 4:05PM ET 6,100 9.10 4,200 11.60
Season Team RuAtt RuYd/G RuTD RuYd/R Avg RecR RecTa RecYd/G RecTD
2018 DET 118 64.1 3 5.4 32 39 21.3 1
Date Team Game Score RuAtt RuYd RuAvg RuTD Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
8 Sep 2019 DET DET @ ARI 27:27 16 49 3.1 0 2 13 6.5 0 7.2 8.2
18 Nov 2018 DET CAR @ DET 19:20 15 87 5.8 1 2 10 5 0 16.7 17.7
11 Nov 2018 DET DET @ CHI 22:34 14 51 3.6 1 6 38 6.3 1 21.9 25.9
4 Nov 2018 DET DET @ MIN 9:24 12 37 3.1 0 3 7 2.3 0 5.9 7.4
28 Oct 2018 DET SEA @ DET 28:14 8 22 2.8 0 6 69 11.5 0 12.1 15.1
21 Oct 2018 DET DET @ MIA 32:21 19 158 8.3 0 2 21 10.5 0 18.9 22.9
7 Oct 2018 DET GB @ DET 23:31 12 70 5.8 0 2 15 7.5 0 9.5 10.5
30 Sep 2018 DET DET @ DAL 24:26 9 55 6.1 1 1 1 1 0 12.1 12.6
23 Sep 2018 DET NE @ DET 10:26 16 101 6.3 0 2 9 4.5 0 12 16
16 Sep 2018 DET DET @ SF 27:30 8 43 5.4 0 5 23 4.6 0 9.1 11.6

This isn’t just about chasing Johnson’s breakout game on national TV this past Sunday night. While he showed off his full set of skills in taking apart the Patriots linebacking corps, he now gets a matchup with the Dallas defense that will be missing Sean Lee. Last year, teams rushed for 1.3 more yards per carry and Dallas is allowing eight receptions a game to running backs. Johnson has yet to see 50 percent of the snaps but he’s seen his touches raise every week, going for eight to 13 to 18 touches this past week. This week could easily be the week he breaks the 20 touch barrier in what is now a fantastic matchup against the Cowboys defense. In addition, Dallas is only averaging 13.7 points per game this year. The chances of them running away with this game are slim, meaning Theo Riddick shouldn’t have a big role. Johnson and LeGarrette Blount both had 18 touches last week and Johnson had 110 total yards to Blount’s 65. It’s clear who the best back is in MoTown and Johnson is far too cheap this upcoming Sunday. Sony Michel is now likely to be chalky with the Patriots putting Rex Burkhead going to the IR but I believe Johnson is just as good a play.

 

Next game:

LAC @ DET

Time:

Sun, 15th Sep, 01:00PM ET

Odds:

LAC -1.5 / O/U 46.5

RB

Austin Ekeler

Los Angeles Chargers

Salary: 7,500 6,100
FPPG: 36.40 39.40
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
IND @ LAC Sun, 8 Sep 2019, 4:05PM ET 6,400 36.40 5,500 39.40
LAC @ NE Sun, 13 Jan 2019, 1:05PM ET 6,200 3.40 4,500 4.90
LAC @ BAL Sun, 6 Jan 2019, 1:05PM ET 6,600 6.30 4,400 8.30
LAC @ DEN Sun, 30 Dec 2018, 4:25PM ET 5,800 11.80 5,400 11.80
CIN @ LAC Sun, 9 Dec 2018, 4:05PM ET 6,700 16.40 6,200 17.40
LAC @ PIT Sun, 2 Dec 2018, 8:20PM ET 5,400 6.80 5,400 9.30
ARI @ LAC Sun, 25 Nov 2018, 4:05PM ET 5,400 21.30 3,700 26.30
DEN @ LAC Sun, 18 Nov 2018, 4:05PM ET 5,600 7.90 3,800 8.90
LAC @ OAK Sun, 11 Nov 2018, 4:05PM ET 5,800 1.90 4,000 1.90
LAC @ SEA Sun, 4 Nov 2018, 4:05PM ET 6,300 3.90 4,300 4.40
Season Team RuAtt RuYd/G RuTD RuYd/R Avg RecR RecTa RecYd/G RecTD
2018 LAC 106 39.6 3 5.2 39 53 28.9 3
Date Team Game Score RuAtt RuYd RuAvg RuTD Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
8 Sep 2019 LAC IND @ LAC 24:30 12 58 4.8 1 6 96 16 2 36.4 39.4
13 Jan 2019 LAC LAC @ NE 28:41 0 0 0 0 3 19 6.3 0 3.4 4.9
6 Jan 2019 LAC LAC @ BAL 23:17 11 29 2.6 0 4 14 3.5 0 6.3 8.3
30 Dec 2018 LAC LAC @ DEN 23:9 8 58 7.3 1 0 0 0 0 11.8 11.8
9 Dec 2018 LAC CIN @ LAC 21:26 15 66 4.4 1 2 28 14 0 16.4 17.4
2 Dec 2018 LAC LAC @ PIT 33:30 13 21 1.6 0 5 22 4.4 0 6.8 9.3
25 Nov 2018 LAC ARI @ LAC 10:45 5 35 7 1 10 68 6.8 0 21.3 26.3
18 Nov 2018 LAC DEN @ LAC 23:22 6 29 4.8 0 2 40 20 0 7.9 8.9
11 Nov 2018 LAC LAC @ OAK 20:6 3 19 6.3 0 0 0 0 0 1.9 1.9
4 Nov 2018 LAC LAC @ SEA 25:17 3 21 7 0 1 13 13 0 3.9 4.4

I will be the first one to say that Ekeler is more attractive on DraftKings this week since he’s a lower percentage of the budget and DK is full PPR. Seeing as how Johnson and someone like Sony Michel is right at the same price range, Ekeler could fly under the radar but he shouldn’t. The Chargers are the highest favorite on the slate since the 49ers lost quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. San Francisco has given up the 12th most points to running backs but the weak link in that stat is they’ve allowed the fourth most receptions to the running back position. Ekeler and Melvin Gordon have combined for a 32 percent target share so far and if the Chargers get out to a lead, they may take it easy on Gordon. Of course, he’s going to get his but maybe the snaps get closer to the 60-40 split we saw when they smoked Buffalo in Week 2. Ekeler got 14 touches in that game and could see something similar this week.

 

Wide Receiver

Next game:

Time:

Odds:

WR

Antonio Callaway

Salary: 5,100 3,300
FPPG: 6.93 8.30
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
CLE @ BAL Sun, 30 Dec 2018, 4:25PM ET 4,800 15.90 3,700 17.90
CIN @ CLE Sun, 23 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,100 0 3,900 0
CLE @ DEN Sat, 15 Dec 2018, 8:20PM ET 4,800 12.00 3,900 14.50
CAR @ CLE Sun, 9 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,400 0.50 3,900 1.00
CLE @ HOU Sun, 2 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,500 7.90 4,100 10.40
CLE @ CIN Sun, 25 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 4,800 14.20 3,800 16.20
ATL @ CLE Sun, 11 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 4,900 4.90 4,000 5.90
KC @ CLE Sun, 4 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 4,900 6.60 4,200 8.10
CLE @ PIT Sun, 28 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 4,700 12.10 3,800 14.60
CLE @ TB Sun, 21 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 4,800 1.90 4,300 2.40
Season Team ReR ReTa ReYd ReYd/G ReTD Yd/Ta
2018 CLE 43 79 586 36.6 5 7.42
Date Team Game Score Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
30 Dec 2018 CLE CLE @ BAL 24:26 4 79 19.8 1 15.9 17.9
23 Dec 2018 CLE CIN @ CLE 18:26 0 0 0 0 0 0
15 Dec 2018 CLE CLE @ DEN 17:16 5 35 7 1 12 14.5
9 Dec 2018 CLE CAR @ CLE 20:26 1 0 0 0 0.5 1
2 Dec 2018 CLE CLE @ HOU 13:29 3 84 28 0 7.9 10.4
25 Nov 2018 CLE CLE @ CIN 35:20 4 62 15.5 1 14.2 16.2
11 Nov 2018 CLE ATL @ CLE 16:28 2 39 19.5 0 4.9 5.9
4 Nov 2018 CLE KC @ CLE 37:21 3 51 17 0 6.6 8.1
28 Oct 2018 CLE CLE @ PIT 18:33 5 36 7.2 1 12.1 14.6
21 Oct 2018 CLE CLE @ TB 23:26 1 14 14 0 1.9 2.4

Well, it looks like I’m going to get to talk about Baker for at least a little bit. Callaway is a talented receiver that would have been a much higher pick in the draft if it wasn’t for off the field issues. Now that Josh Gordon is in New England, he’s the number two receiver in the offense and saw 10 targets during the Thursday night game. His price is incredibly low for his role target-wise and he carries the highest aDOT(16.6 to 11.7 for Jarvis Landry) of all Cleveland receivers. Despite having a rough game with drops and iffy routes, Callaway was on the field for a career high 89 percent last week. Oakland is struggling defending the pass and can’t get pressure on the quarterback. If the Raiders can’t get to Mayfield, he’s going to be able to find Callaway deep down the field, as a familiar face points out –


At his price point, a stat line of 4/60/1 smashes his tag and the ceiling is much higher for Week 4.

 

Next game:

MIN @ GB

Time:

Sun, 15th Sep, 01:00PM ET

Odds:

GB -2.5 / O/U 43.0

WR

Geronimo Allison

Green Bay Packers

Salary: 5,100 4,400
FPPG: 10.46
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
GB @ LAR Sun, 28 Oct 2018, 4:25PM ET 5,700 1.90 5,000 2.40
BUF @ GB Sun, 30 Sep 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,900 11.00 4,700 14.00
GB @ WSH Sun, 23 Sep 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,000 14.60 4,500 15.60
MIN @ GB Sun, 16 Sep 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,000 9.40 3,800 12.40
CHI @ GB Sun, 9 Sep 2018, 8:20PM ET 5,000 15.40 3,900 17.90
GB @ DET Sun, 31 Dec 2017, 1:00PM ET N/a 2.50 N/a 3.50
MIN @ GB Sat, 23 Dec 2017, 8:30PM ET N/a 1.40 N/a 1.90
GB @ CAR Sun, 17 Dec 2017, 1:00PM ET N/a 3.80 N/a 7.30
GB @ CLE Sun, 10 Dec 2017, 1:00PM ET N/a 4.90 N/a 6.90
BAL @ GB Sun, 19 Nov 2017, 1:00PM ET N/a 0 N/a 0
Season Team ReR ReTa ReYd ReYd/G ReTD Yd/Ta
2018 GB 20 30 303 60.6 2 10.10
Date Team Game Score Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
28 Oct 2018 GB GB @ LAR 27:29 1 14 14 0 1.9 2.4
30 Sep 2018 GB BUF @ GB 0:22 6 80 13.3 0 11 14
23 Sep 2018 GB GB @ WSH 17:31 2 76 38 1 14.6 15.6
16 Sep 2018 GB MIN @ GB 29:29 6 64 10.7 0 9.4 12.4
9 Sep 2018 GB CHI @ GB 23:24 5 69 13.8 1 15.4 17.9
31 Dec 2017 GB GB @ DET 11:35 2 15 7.5 0 2.5 3.5
23 Dec 2017 GB MIN @ GB 16:0 1 9 9 0 1.4 1.9
17 Dec 2017 GB GB @ CAR 24:31 5 33 6.6 0 3.8 7.3
10 Dec 2017 GB GB @ CLE 27:21 4 29 7.3 0 4.9 6.9
19 Nov 2017 GB BAL @ GB 23:0 0 0 0 0 0 0

This is a very important game for the Green Bay Packers. They would be winless if it wasn’t for Aaron Rodgers bringing them back from the brink Week 1 and they find themselves up against a feisty Buffalo defense. The best player on that unit is corner Tre’Davious White, who basically negated Vikings receiver Stefon Diggs on Sunday. It would be a safe assumption that he’s going to try to do the same to Davante Adams and that means I want to play Allison in some spots this week. He’s produced more yards and touchdowns than Randall Cobb on fewer targets so far and he’s almost doubling the aDOT for Cobb. He also has the highest catch rate on the Packers so that’s a quick way to earn the trust from Rodgers. In three games, Allison has drawn at least four targets, racked up a minimum 64 receiving yards and found the end zone twice. He’s the cheapest part of the passing attack on both sites and is starting to feel relatively safe, despite being the “third” wheel in the passing game.

 

Tight End

Next game:

PHI @ ATL

Time:

Sun, 15th Sep, 08:20PM ET

Odds:

PHI -1.0 / O/U 52.5

TE

Dallas Goedert

Philadelphia Eagles

Salary: 4,800 2,800
FPPG: 2.60 3.60
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
WSH @ PHI Sun, 8 Sep 2019, 1:00PM ET 5,000 2.60 2,900 3.60
PHI @ CHI Sun, 6 Jan 2019, 4:40PM ET 5,400 9.00 2,600 10.00
PHI @ WSH Sun, 30 Dec 2018, 4:25PM ET 5,100 4.20 2,600 5.70
HOU @ PHI Sun, 23 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,100 4.50 2,600 6.00
PHI @ LAR Sun, 16 Dec 2018, 8:20PM ET 5,100 2.20 2,600 3.20
PHI @ DAL Sun, 9 Dec 2018, 4:25PM ET 5,100 12.40 2,500 14.40
NYG @ PHI Sun, 25 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,400 4.80 2,500 6.30
PHI @ JAC Sun, 28 Oct 2018, 9:30AM ET 4,800 9.70 2,600 10.20
CAR @ PHI Sun, 21 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 4,400 12.30 2,600 14.30
PHI @ NYG Thu, 11 Oct 2018, 8:20PM ET 4,600 1.20 2,600 1.70
Season Team ReR ReTa ReYd ReYd/G ReTD Yd/Ta
2018 PHI 33 44 334 20.9 4 7.59
Date Team Game Score Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
8 Sep 2019 PHI WSH @ PHI 27:32 2 16 8 0 2.6 3.6
6 Jan 2019 PHI PHI @ CHI 16:15 2 20 10 1 9 10
30 Dec 2018 PHI PHI @ WSH 24:0 3 27 9 0 4.2 5.7
23 Dec 2018 PHI HOU @ PHI 30:32 3 30 10 0 4.5 6
16 Dec 2018 PHI PHI @ LAR 30:23 2 12 6 0 2.2 3.2
9 Dec 2018 PHI PHI @ DAL 23:29 4 44 11 1 12.4 14.4
25 Nov 2018 PHI NYG @ PHI 22:25 3 33 11 0 4.8 6.3
28 Oct 2018 PHI PHI @ JAC 24:18 1 32 32 1 9.7 10.2
21 Oct 2018 PHI CAR @ PHI 21:17 4 43 10.8 1 12.3 14.3
11 Oct 2018 PHI PHI @ NYG 34:13 1 7 7 0 1.2 1.7

I had originally been on Goedert only if Alshon Jeffery remained out for the Eagles but I’m starting to shift my opinion on that. Jeffery has been cleared for contact but his status is not yet known for Sunday. Even if he plays, Goedert is a worthwhile target since he saw his snaps skyrocket over 60 percent this past week. What was very interesting was he spent over 40 percent of his snaps in the slot. My assumption was Goedert may have been used as an extra blocker but that does not appear to be the case. With or without Jeffery, the Eagles have very little depth at wide receiver. Goedert ran 22 routes last week compared to a total of six during the first two weeks. The usage spike seems like it should continue as it gives the Eagles a different dimension and they might struggle to run the ball against the Titans. Coach Doug Pederson actually made a point to say Goedert has improved his blocking, which should lead to more opportunities to be on the field. Some of those snaps will be spent blocking but 25 or so routes against defenses that are focused on other players is a gold mine at a position starved of solid plays.


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