Week 4 Monday Night Showdown GPP Targets

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What started as a COVID-19 related scare for the entire league, turned into a delightful treat for NFL fans as we now get a double header on Monday Night Football. The Packers and the Falcons were the original game but now we have the Patriots and the Chiefs slated to play as well. Some big names are off this slate as Davante Adams and Cam Newton are out, which really makes one of these games appealing, and one of them not so much (I’ll let you decide which is which).

 

Quarterbacks:

You would think on a two-game slate you could roster any of the quarterbacks but in my mind a lot of them have red flags tonight. I mean, you could roster Brian Hoyer but I wouldn’t necessarily trust it. Mahomes is always a potential GPP winner but how much will he have to throw tonight with the Chiefs currently an eleven point favorite. People will gravitate to the Packers and Falcons game with Atlanta famously being the defense to target. But Rodgers is down Lazard and Adams tonight, so I suspect we will see the Packers lean heavily on Aaron Jones. That leaves Matty Ice as the only quarterback with game script and upside in his favor.

 

Next game:

ATL @ CAR

Time:

Thu, 29th Oct, 08:20PM ET

Odds:

ATL +3.0 / O/U 51.0

QB

Matt Ryan

Atlanta Falcons

Salary: 7,800 6,700
FPPG: 19.64 20.60
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
DET @ ATL Sun, 25 Oct 2020, 1:00PM ET 7,800 17.52 6,700 21.52
ATL @ MIN Sun, 18 Oct 2020, 1:00PM ET 7,400 31.64 6,600 34.64
CAR @ ATL Sun, 11 Oct 2020, 1:00PM ET 7,700 7.94 6,100 7.94
ATL @ GB Mon, 5 Oct 2020, 9:00PM ET 7,800 12.40 6,200 12.40
CHI @ ATL Sun, 27 Sep 2020, 1:00PM ET 7,800 12.42 6,600 12.42
ATL @ DAL Sun, 20 Sep 2020, 1:00PM ET 7,700 28.52 6,600 28.52
SEA @ ATL Sun, 13 Sep 2020, 1:00PM ET 7,800 24.90 6,700 27.90
ATL @ TB Sun, 29 Dec 2019, 1:00PM ET 7,800 14.52 6,500 18.52
JAC @ ATL Sun, 22 Dec 2019, 1:00PM ET 7,700 17.96 6,200 20.96
ATL @ SF Sun, 15 Dec 2019, 4:25PM ET 7,600 19.10 5,900 19.10
Season Team PaYd/G PaTD Pa QB Rating PaYd/Pa Avg
2020 ATL 312.3 11 97.8 7.6
2019 ATL 307.5 26 92.1 7.3
Date Team Game Score Comp/Att PaYd PaTD PaInt RuAtt RuYd RuTD FD FPts DK FPts
25 Oct 2020 ATL DET @ ATL 23:22 31/42 338 1 0 0 0 0 17.52 21.52
18 Oct 2020 ATL ATL @ MIN 40:23 30/40 371 4 0 4 8 0 31.64 34.64
11 Oct 2020 ATL CAR @ ATL 23:16 21/37 226 0 1 1 -1 0 7.94 7.94
5 Oct 2020 ATL ATL @ GB 16:30 28/39 285 0 0 2 10 0 12.4 12.4
27 Sep 2020 ATL CHI @ ATL 30:26 19/38 238 1 1 1 -1 0 12.42 12.42
20 Sep 2020 ATL ATL @ DAL 39:40 24/36 273 4 0 4 16 0 28.52 28.52
13 Sep 2020 ATL SEA @ ATL 38:25 37/54 450 2 1 1 -1 0 24.9 27.9
29 Dec 2019 ATL ATL @ TB 28:22 30/51 313 1 0 2 0 0 14.52 18.52
22 Dec 2019 ATL JAC @ ATL 12:24 32/45 384 1 2 4 6 0 17.96 20.96
15 Dec 2019 ATL ATL @ SF 29:22 25/39 210 2 0 5 27 0 19.1 19.1

Julio and Calvin Ridley are confirmed to be playing and surprisingly Davante Adams has already been ruled out ahead of Green Bay’s Week 5 bye. This kind of sets up for a less than optimal catch-up spot as in my eyes, the Falcons are actually a pretty live dog in this game. But the Falcons run-game has not been that effective this year and the Packers have a pretty decent front seven so throwing on them has been a bit more of a recipe for success. If you are playing hundreds of lineups, of course I would recommending all four quarterbacks at varying percentages, but if you are a single entry kind of player, my money is on Ryan to return the best value on his price.

Running Backs

This is where things get interesting. With the lack of wide receivers, I think a majority of players will lean on the running backs in their lineups for spending up. Totally fine, I think CEH and Aaron Jones are worth the money and I’ll have them in a ton of my lineups. There are also some options to pay down for to differentiate your lineups.

Next game:

NE @ BUF

Time:

Sun, 1st Nov, 01:00PM ET

Odds:

NE +4.5 / O/U 44.0

RB

James White

New England Patriots

Salary: 5,300 4,500
FPPG: 9.13 9.40
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
SF @ NE Sun, 25 Oct 2020, 4:25PM ET 5,200 0.80 4,900 1.30
DEN @ NE Sun, 18 Oct 2020, 1:00PM ET 5,200 11.30 4,800 15.30
NE @ KC Mon, 5 Oct 2020, 7:05PM ET 5,300 9.40 4,700 12.90
MIA @ NE Sun, 13 Sep 2020, 1:00PM ET 5,300 6.70 6,000 8.20
TEN @ NE Sat, 4 Jan 2020, 8:25PM ET 6,200 8.10 5,700 11.60
MIA @ NE Sun, 29 Dec 2019, 1:00PM ET 6,300 9.20 5,900 11.70
BUF @ NE Sat, 21 Dec 2019, 4:30PM ET 6,500 4.90 5,800 6.90
NE @ CIN Sun, 15 Dec 2019, 1:00PM ET 6,800 13.70 5,400 15.20
KC @ NE Sun, 8 Dec 2019, 4:25PM ET 6,000 9.90 5,500 12.40
NE @ HOU Sun, 1 Dec 2019, 8:20PM ET 6,000 33.70 5,200 37.70
Season Team RuAtt RuYd/G RuTD RuYd/R Avg RecR RecTa RecYd/G RecTD
2020 NE 12 17 0 4.3 18 20 44.3 0
2019 NE 1 14 0 14 5 5 62 0
Date Team Game Score RuAtt RuYd RuAvg RuTD Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
25 Oct 2020 NE SF @ NE 33:6 0 0 0 0 1 3 3 0 0.8 1.3
18 Oct 2020 NE DEN @ NE 18:12 4 8 2 0 8 65 8.1 0 11.3 15.3
5 Oct 2020 NE NE @ KC 10:26 3 21 7 0 7 38 5.4 0 9.4 12.9
13 Sep 2020 NE MIA @ NE 11:21 5 22 4.4 0 3 30 10 0 6.7 8.2
4 Jan 2020 NE TEN @ NE 20:13 1 14 14 0 5 62 12.4 0 8.1 11.6
29 Dec 2019 NE MIA @ NE 27:24 2 4 2 0 3 33 11 1 9.2 11.7
21 Dec 2019 NE BUF @ NE 17:24 3 5 1.7 0 4 24 6 0 4.9 6.9
15 Dec 2019 NE NE @ CIN 34:13 3 13 4.3 0 3 49 16.3 1 13.7 15.2
8 Dec 2019 NE KC @ NE 23:16 6 33 5.5 0 5 27 5.4 0 9.9 12.4
1 Dec 2019 NE NE @ HOU 22:28 14 79 5.6 0 8 98 12.3 2 33.7 37.7

The Patriots backfield has been a mess so far and Rex Burkhead has performed admirably, but James White is back after the tragic incident involving his parents, and I think the Patriots lean on him tonight and get him a touchdown. Damien Harris is back off the IR but the Pats may ease him back into things. In a game where the Patriots are presumed to be trailing I think White can get a ton of work through the passing game on dump offs and screens from Hoyer.

Next game:

MIN @ GB

Time:

Sun, 1st Nov, 01:00PM ET

Odds:

GB -7.0 / O/U 55.5

RB

Aaron Jones

Green Bay Packers

Salary: 8,500 7,300
FPPG: 21.20 23.60
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
GB @ TB Sun, 18 Oct 2020, 4:25PM ET 8,500 11.60 7,600 13.10
ATL @ GB Mon, 5 Oct 2020, 9:00PM ET 8,400 19.60 7,300 22.10
GB @ NO Sun, 27 Sep 2020, 8:20PM ET 8,200 15.60 7,600 16.60
DET @ GB Sun, 20 Sep 2020, 1:00PM ET 7,700 43.60 7,100 48.60
GB @ MIN Sun, 13 Sep 2020, 1:00PM ET 7,800 15.60 6,900 17.60
GB @ SF Sun, 19 Jan 2020, 6:40PM ET 7,800 22.80 6,700 25.30
SEA @ GB Sun, 12 Jan 2020, 6:40PM ET 8,200 19.10 7,400 19.60
GB @ DET Sun, 29 Dec 2019, 1:00PM ET 8,000 15.30 8,200 19.30
GB @ MIN Mon, 23 Dec 2019, 8:15PM ET 7,900 27.00 7,400 32.00
CHI @ GB Sun, 15 Dec 2019, 1:00PM ET 7,800 17.10 7,300 17.10
Season Team RuAtt RuYd/G RuTD RuYd/R Avg RecR RecTa RecYd/G RecTD
2020 GB 75 77.8 5 5.2 18 28 32.2 2
2019 GB 33 59 3 3.6 6 7 15.5 1
Date Team Game Score RuAtt RuYd RuAvg RuTD Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
18 Oct 2020 GB GB @ TB 10:38 10 15 1.5 1 3 26 8.7 0 11.6 13.1
5 Oct 2020 GB ATL @ GB 16:30 15 71 4.7 0 5 40 8 1 19.6 22.1
27 Sep 2020 GB GB @ NO 37:30 16 69 4.3 1 2 17 8.5 0 15.6 16.6
20 Sep 2020 GB DET @ GB 21:42 18 168 9.3 2 4 68 17 1 43.6 48.6
13 Sep 2020 GB GB @ MIN 43:34 16 66 4.1 1 4 10 2.5 0 15.6 17.6
19 Jan 2020 GB GB @ SF 20:37 12 56 4.7 1 5 27 5.4 1 22.8 25.3
12 Jan 2020 GB SEA @ GB 23:28 21 62 3 2 1 4 4 0 19.1 19.6
29 Dec 2019 GB GB @ DET 23:20 25 100 4 0 2 43 21.5 0 15.3 19.3
23 Dec 2019 GB GB @ MIN 23:10 23 154 6.7 2 2 6 3 0 27 32
15 Dec 2019 GB CHI @ GB 13:21 13 51 3.9 2 0 0 0 0 17.1 17.1

I think Jones will be the chalk play tonight and it may just be a matter of slot him in and differentiate in other places because with Adams and Lazard out, Rodgers is going to be looking for Jones to run some routes as well. I don’t mind a pivot to Jamaal Williams in a few lineups in GPPs, but Jones provides the high floor and three-TD upside every game he plays.

Wide Receivers

This is where things get kind of interesting as there are a bunch of cheap plays we can slot in, with the Falcons guys and Tyreek Hill being the only high end options available. Either of those two would be solid, but even pairing both with Matt Ryan and coming back with Aaron Jones would be a slick way to get a good stack going from that game. This is where I think GPPs are going to be won tonight, if people can pick a Packers receiver that goes off at the minimum price.

Next game:

MIN @ GB

Time:

Sun, 1st Nov, 01:00PM ET

Odds:

GB -7.0 / O/U 55.5

WR

Darrius Shepherd

Green Bay Packers

Salary: 4,500 3,000
FPPG: 1.73 1.70
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
GB @ HOU Sun, 25 Oct 2020, 1:00PM ET 4,500 0 3,000 0
GB @ TB Sun, 18 Oct 2020, 4:25PM ET 4,500 2.10 3,000 2.60
ATL @ GB Mon, 5 Oct 2020, 9:00PM ET 4,500 3.10 3,000 4.10
GB @ NO Sun, 27 Sep 2020, 8:20PM ET 4,500 0 N/a 0
OAK @ GB Sun, 20 Oct 2019, 1:00PM ET 4,500 0 3,500 0
DET @ GB Mon, 14 Oct 2019, 8:15PM ET 4,500 -1.40 3,400 0.10
PHI @ GB Thu, 26 Sep 2019, 8:20PM ET 4,500 0 3,000 0
Season Team ReR ReTa ReYd ReYd/G ReTD Yd/Ta
2020 GB 3 5 37 12.3 0 7.40
2019 GB 1 2 1 0.2 0 0.50
Date Team Game Score Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
25 Oct 2020 GB GB @ HOU 35:20 0 0 0 0 0 0
18 Oct 2020 GB GB @ TB 10:38 1 16 16 0 2.1 2.6
5 Oct 2020 GB ATL @ GB 16:30 2 21 10.5 0 3.1 4.1
27 Sep 2020 GB GB @ NO 37:30 0 0 0 0 0 0
20 Oct 2019 GB OAK @ GB 24:42 0 0 0 0 0 0
14 Oct 2019 GB DET @ GB 22:23 1 1 1 0 -1.4 0.1
26 Sep 2019 GB PHI @ GB 34:27 0 0 0 0 0 0

Who? Perfect. Second-year wide receiver who was praised by Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams for his work ethic and maturity, Shepherd now gets his shot with the Packers after being called up from the practice squad. We do not even really know if he is going to get on the field tonight, but with only MVS, practice squad callup Reggie Begelton, and rookie Malik Taylor (who are all worth a GPP flyer on), look for Shepherd to get some looks from Rodgers today.

Next game:

NYJ @ KC

Time:

Sun, 1st Nov, 01:00PM ET

Odds:

KC -20.5 / O/U 48.0

WR

Mecole Hardman

Kansas City Chiefs

Salary: 5,400 4,700
FPPG: 6.70 8.00
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
KC @ DEN Sun, 25 Oct 2020, 4:25PM ET 5,400 8.00 4,500 9.00
KC @ BUF Mon, 19 Oct 2020, 5:00PM ET 5,400 0 4,200 0
LV @ KC Sun, 11 Oct 2020, 1:00PM ET 5,100 6.00 4,400 7.00
NE @ KC Mon, 5 Oct 2020, 7:05PM ET 5,200 10.70 4,000 12.70
KC @ BAL Mon, 28 Sep 2020, 8:15PM ET 5,200 16.10 4,200 18.10
KC @ LAC Sun, 20 Sep 2020, 4:25PM ET 5,000 8.30 3,800 9.30
HOU @ KC Thu, 10 Sep 2020, 8:20PM ET 5,000 1.10 4,200 1.60
SF @ KC Sun, 2 Feb 2020, 6:30PM ET N/a 0.10 N/a 0.60
TEN @ KC Sun, 19 Jan 2020, 3:05PM ET 4,900 1.30 3,800 1.80
HOU @ KC Sun, 12 Jan 2020, 3:05PM ET 5,300 2.90 4,100 3.90
Season Team ReR ReTa ReYd ReYd/G ReTD Yd/Ta
2020 KC 13 18 194 32.3 2 10.78
2019 KC 3 5 27 13.5 0 5.40
Date Team Game Score Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
25 Oct 2020 KC KC @ DEN 43:16 2 57 28.5 0 8 9
19 Oct 2020 KC KC @ BUF 26:17 0 0 0 0 0 0
11 Oct 2020 KC LV @ KC 40:32 2 50 25 0 6 7
5 Oct 2020 KC NE @ KC 10:26 4 27 6.8 1 10.7 12.7
28 Sep 2020 KC KC @ BAL 34:20 4 81 20.3 1 16.1 18.1
20 Sep 2020 KC KC @ LAC 23:20 2 30 15 0 8.3 9.3
10 Sep 2020 KC HOU @ KC 20:34 1 6 6 0 1.1 1.6
2 Feb 2020 KC SF @ KC 20:31 1 2 2 0 0.1 0.6
19 Jan 2020 KC TEN @ KC 24:35 1 8 8 0 1.3 1.8
12 Jan 2020 KC HOU @ KC 31:51 2 19 9.5 0 2.9 3.9

This one is kind of a hunch with the Patriots generally taking away the top target on the opposing team. I could by Kelce, or it could be a double team on Tyreek down the field. Hardman has shown he can flourish when the other team takes away Hill, so look for Hardman to breakthrough with a least a couple big catches and if one of those hits for a touchdown it could shoot your lineup up the GPP charts. Love Hardman with a Falcons stack tonight.

Tight End

This position is going to be pretty ugly tonight. Everyone I have seen is going to be on Kelce or Tonyan, so Hurst might be a good lower-owned guy who has just as high as ceiling as Tonyan.

Next game:

NYJ @ KC

Time:

Sun, 1st Nov, 01:00PM ET

Odds:

KC -20.5 / O/U 48.0

TE

Travis Kelce

Kansas City Chiefs

Salary: 7,900 6,600
FPPG: 15.58 17.40
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
KC @ DEN Sun, 25 Oct 2020, 4:25PM ET 7,900 4.60 6,300 6.10
KC @ BUF Mon, 19 Oct 2020, 5:00PM ET 7,900 19.00 6,900 22.50
LV @ KC Sun, 11 Oct 2020, 1:00PM ET 7,800 20.80 6,400 27.80
NE @ KC Mon, 5 Oct 2020, 7:05PM ET 7,600 8.50 6,500 10.00
KC @ BAL Mon, 28 Sep 2020, 8:15PM ET 7,800 11.70 7,000 14.70
KC @ LAC Sun, 20 Sep 2020, 4:25PM ET 7,800 19.50 7,000 24.00
HOU @ KC Thu, 10 Sep 2020, 8:20PM ET 7,800 14.00 7,000 17.00
SF @ KC Sun, 2 Feb 2020, 6:30PM ET N/a 13.50 N/a 16.50
TEN @ KC Sun, 19 Jan 2020, 3:05PM ET 7,800 4.50 7,100 6.00
HOU @ KC Sun, 12 Jan 2020, 3:05PM ET 7,500 36.40 6,400 44.40
Season Team ReR ReTa ReYd ReYd/G ReTD Yd/Ta
2020 KC 37 53 470 78.3 5 8.87
2019 KC 13 16 164 82 3 10.25
Date Team Game Score Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
25 Oct 2020 KC KC @ DEN 43:16 3 31 10.3 0 4.6 6.1
19 Oct 2020 KC KC @ BUF 26:17 5 65 13 2 19 22.5
11 Oct 2020 KC LV @ KC 40:32 8 108 13.5 1 20.8 27.8
5 Oct 2020 KC NE @ KC 10:26 3 70 23.3 0 8.5 10
28 Sep 2020 KC KC @ BAL 34:20 6 87 14.5 0 11.7 14.7
20 Sep 2020 KC KC @ LAC 23:20 9 90 10 1 19.5 24
10 Sep 2020 KC HOU @ KC 20:34 6 50 8.3 1 14 17
2 Feb 2020 KC SF @ KC 20:31 6 43 7.2 1 13.5 16.5
19 Jan 2020 KC TEN @ KC 24:35 3 30 10 0 4.5 6
12 Jan 2020 KC HOU @ KC 31:51 10 134 13.4 3 36.4 44.4

Kelce has the highest floor tonight and there are really only three tight ends to play, maybe Sternberger if you want to get cute. If you can afford Kelce in your lineup I would say play him, but I’ll have a healthy dose of Hurst and Tonyan as well to be able to slot in some of the higher priced players at other positions.