WEEK 17 NFL DFS VALUE PICKS WITH ADAM STRANGIS

By on


Well, we’ve come to the end of the regular season. 17 crazy weeks are about to be in the books and I hope that the tools and great analysis from the RotoCurve team has helped you stay in the green this NFL season. We have some fun stuff coming for the playoffs, but until then we have one more huge slate to navigate. I’m personally not huge on Week 17. It’s hard enough to predict the NFL and coaching tendencies on a regular week. Now that many teams have their motivation thrown into question, it doesn’t get any easier. Having said that, let’s check last weeks results and get to work!

QB – Nick Foles – 35.9 DK points – I can’t explain why he’s so good in this system but this was wildly above my expectations 

RB – Marlon Mack – 10.8 DK points – Mack fortunately scored to save his day to an extent but he was still disappointing 

RB – Jordan Howard – 15.0 DK points- Had he and Mack switched scores, I might have been a little happier. As is, not shabby from Howard at all 

WR – Demaryius Thomas – 5.2 DK points- He did wind up tearing his Achilles but the scoring wasn’t great before that happened

WR – Robby Anderson – 32.0 DK points – Don’t get me wrong, I’m glad I got this one right but given the chalk nature, I can’t take much credit 

TE – Blake Jarwin – 2.8 DK points – Why do you hate me Blake Jarwin? What did I do to you? 

D/ST – Saints – 6.0 DK points – I was hoping for a little more, but six points didn’t kill you either

Quarterback

Next game:

Time:

Odds:

QB

Teddy Bridgewater

New Orleans Saints

Salary: 6,000 4,500
FPPG: 2.06 1.60
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
CAR @ NO Sun, 30 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 7,300 8.92 5,300 8.92
PHI @ NO Sun, 18 Nov 2018, 4:25PM ET 6,000 -0.10 4,500 -0.10
NO @ CIN Sun, 11 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,000 -0.30 4,500 -0.30
WSH @ NO Mon, 8 Oct 2018, 8:15PM ET 6,000 -0.30 4,500 -0.30
CIN @ MIN Sun, 17 Dec 2017, 1:00PM ET N/a -1.30 N/a -1.30
Season Team PaYd/G PaTD Pa QB Rating PaYd/Pa Avg
2018 NO 24.6 1 70.6 5.1
2017 MIN 0 0 0 0
Date Team Game Score Comp/Att PaYd PaTD PaInt RuAtt RuYd RuTD FD FPts DK FPts
30 Dec 2018 NO CAR @ NO 33:14 14/22 118 1 1 4 12 0 8.92 8.92
18 Nov 2018 NO PHI @ NO 7:48 0 0 0 1 -1 0 -0.1 -0.1
11 Nov 2018 NO NO @ CIN 51:14 0/1 0 0 0 3 -3 0 -0.3 -0.3
8 Oct 2018 NO WSH @ NO 19:43 0 0 0 3 -3 0 -0.3 -0.3
17 Dec 2017 MIN CIN @ MIN 7:34 0/2 0 0 1 3 -3 0 -1.3 -1.3

I’m excited to see Bridgewater this week as I’ve always been a fan. There’s a little bit of lying and yang with this pick because I think there are some slight negatives. First, Bridgewater has not played more than a handful of snaps since 2015. As in, he has three pass attempts in that time span. There’s also reason to think that he won’t be playing with a full deck, as the Saints will likely keep stars like Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara limited. Having acknowledged the negatives, the positives are the price tag compared to the other quarterback options and Sean Payton is a great offensive mind. New Orleans would be wise to see what they have in Bridgewater as Drew Brees isn’t getting younger and he will be a free agent after the season. This game is at home against a bad pass defense(12th most yards, most passing touchdowns given up) and we know that Bridgewater can be quality with his career 64.7 career completion percentage. I’ll probably be tilted along with you when Taysom Hill takes a red zone touchdown away, but the price is too low to get too worried. Bridgewater is a solid floor option at the position this week.

Also Consider – Sam Darnold, Nick Foles because he is the GOAT and still under $6,000(no, Josh Collacchi did not make me say that)

 

Running Back

Next game:

Time:

Odds:

RB

Darren Sproles

Philadelphia Eagles

Salary: 5,400 4,400
FPPG: 8.92 9.50
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
PHI @ NO Sun, 13 Jan 2019, 4:40PM ET 5,400 4.00 4,400 5.50
PHI @ CHI Sun, 6 Jan 2019, 4:40PM ET 5,500 4.50 4,100 5.50
PHI @ WSH Sun, 30 Dec 2018, 4:25PM ET 5,500 4.60 4,400 5.60
HOU @ PHI Sun, 23 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 4,500 18.30 3,600 19.80
PHI @ LAR Sun, 16 Dec 2018, 8:20PM ET 4,500 6.10 3,600 7.60
PHI @ DAL Sun, 9 Dec 2018, 4:25PM ET 4,500 11.10 3,300 12.60
WSH @ PHI Mon, 3 Dec 2018, 8:15PM ET 4,500 8.20 3,500 8.20
ATL @ PHI Thu, 6 Sep 2018, 8:55PM ET 4,600 5.20 3,800 7.20
NYG @ PHI Sun, 24 Sep 2017, 1:00PM ET N/a 1.10 N/a 1.10
PHI @ KC Sun, 17 Sep 2017, 12:00PM ET N/a 6.80 N/a 8.80
Season Team RuAtt RuYd/G RuTD RuYd/R Avg RecR RecTa RecYd/G RecTD
2018 PHI 16 12.5 0 1.6 5 7 17.5 0
2017 PHI 15 20.3 0 4.1 7 13 24.3 0
Date Team Game Score RuAtt RuYd RuAvg RuTD Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
13 Jan 2019 PHI PHI @ NO 14:20 3 4 1.3 0 3 21 7 0 4 5.5
6 Jan 2019 PHI PHI @ CHI 16:15 13 21 1.6 0 2 14 7 0 4.5 5.5
30 Dec 2018 PHI PHI @ WSH 24:0 7 24 3.4 0 2 12 6 0 4.6 5.6
23 Dec 2018 PHI HOU @ PHI 30:32 9 32 3.6 0 3 76 25.3 1 18.3 19.8
16 Dec 2018 PHI PHI @ LAR 30:23 3 30 10 0 3 16 5.3 0 6.1 7.6
9 Dec 2018 PHI PHI @ DAL 23:29 1 2 2 0 3 34 11.3 1 11.1 12.6
3 Dec 2018 PHI WSH @ PHI 13:28 4 22 5.5 1 0 0 0 0 8.2 8.2
6 Sep 2018 PHI ATL @ PHI 12:18 5 10 2 0 4 22 5.5 0 5.2 7.2
24 Sep 2017 PHI NYG @ PHI 24:27 3 11 3.7 0 0 0 0 0 1.1 1.1
17 Sep 2017 PHI PHI @ KC 20:27 10 48 4.8 0 2 30 15 0 6.8 8.8

Another Philly special(no pun intended), Sproles demonstrated his Old Man Strength this past week while muscling in for a receiving touchdown. Let’s just pretend he got taken down short of the goal line. He still would have scored over 13 DK points while touching the ball 12 times. We look at the snaps and he led the Eagles running backs with 46 percent and should be a candidate to do it again. Doug Pederson and the Eagles love Sproles and he’s really the perfect DK back. He’s going to see targets in the passing game and that’s how he’s made his career last so long. Washington looks like a middle of the road matchup but when we look closer, they’ve given up 87 receptions to the running back position. That ranks as tied for the ninth most in football and Sproles is under $4,500 on DK. All you need is 13 points for a 3x return and in a game the Eagles absolutely must win, I think Sproles is a nice cash game play with some ceiling if he breaks a long one or just scores in general.

Next game:

Time:

Odds:

RB

Jalen Richard

Oakland Raiders

Salary: 4,800 4,200
FPPG: 7.99 10.30
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
OAK @ KC Sun, 30 Dec 2018, 4:25PM ET 4,800 2.80 4,200 3.80
DEN @ OAK Mon, 24 Dec 2018, 8:15PM ET 4,800 13.10 4,000 15.10
OAK @ CIN Sun, 16 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 4,800 8.10 3,900 11.60
PIT @ OAK Sun, 9 Dec 2018, 4:25PM ET 4,800 3.40 4,100 3.90
KC @ OAK Sun, 2 Dec 2018, 4:05PM ET 4,800 12.10 4,300 14.60
OAK @ BAL Sun, 25 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,300 2.60 4,300 3.60
OAK @ ARI Sun, 18 Nov 2018, 4:05PM ET 5,300 10.80 4,300 12.30
LAC @ OAK Sun, 11 Nov 2018, 4:05PM ET 5,400 8.40 4,800 10.90
OAK @ SF Thu, 1 Nov 2018, 8:20PM ET 5,700 6.90 4,900 8.90
IND @ OAK Sun, 28 Oct 2018, 4:05PM ET 5,700 10.40 4,200 14.40
Season Team RuAtt RuYd/G RuTD RuYd/R Avg RecR RecTa RecYd/G RecTD
2018 OAK 55 16.2 1 4.7 68 81 37.9 0
2017 OAK 56 17.2 1 4.9 27 36 16 1
Date Team Game Score RuAtt RuYd RuAvg RuTD Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
30 Dec 2018 OAK OAK @ KC 3:35 3 1 0.3 0 2 17 8.5 0 2.8 3.8
24 Dec 2018 OAK DEN @ OAK 14:27 4 11 2.8 1 4 40 10 0 13.1 15.1
16 Dec 2018 OAK OAK @ CIN 16:30 4 9 2.3 0 5 67 13.4 0 8.1 11.6
9 Dec 2018 OAK PIT @ OAK 21:24 8 24 3 0 1 5 5 0 3.4 3.9
2 Dec 2018 OAK KC @ OAK 40:33 6 95 15.8 0 3 31 10.3 0 12.1 14.6
25 Nov 2018 OAK OAK @ BAL 17:34 1 1 1 0 2 15 7.5 0 2.6 3.6
18 Nov 2018 OAK OAK @ ARI 23:21 11 61 5.5 0 3 32 10.7 0 10.8 12.3
11 Nov 2018 OAK LAC @ OAK 20:6 3 7 2.3 0 5 52 10.4 0 8.4 10.9
1 Nov 2018 OAK OAK @ SF 3:34 2 4 2 0 4 45 11.3 0 6.9 8.9
28 Oct 2018 OAK IND @ OAK 42:28 2 14 7 0 8 50 6.3 0 10.4 14.4

I’m sorry if you guys are getting tired of hearing about Richard, but if DK refuses to adjust his price at all I’m going to continue to have interest. The Raiders offense might not be good, but we can take advantage of a tight end and a running back being 1-2 in targets on the season. Richard profiles especially well in this matchup for a couple of reasons. First, they give up the fifth most yards per game on the ground. Perhaps that explains why Richard gouged them for 95 rushing yards on just six carries the first time around. Secondly, this game should be one the Raiders trail in. Kansas City still has a lot to play for, such as the number one seed in the AFC playoffs. Oakland is a divisional foe headed into Arrowhead. They likely should be behind in this one which means Richard should be heavily involved. Much like Sproles, he’s the perfect DK back and I’ll be using him in my own lineups this week.

Also Consider – Brian Hill if Tevin Coleman is out, Jaquizz Rodgers(GPP only), Rod Smith if Ezekiel Elliott sits.

 

Wide Receiver

Next game:

Time:

Odds:

WR

Jamison Crowder

Washington Redskins

Salary: 5,600 4,800
FPPG: 8.39 10.10
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
PHI @ WSH Sun, 30 Dec 2018, 4:25PM ET 5,600 1.20 4,800 1.70
WSH @ TEN Sat, 22 Dec 2018, 4:30PM ET 5,300 10.30 4,600 12.80
WSH @ JAC Sun, 16 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,400 6.60 3,700 8.60
NYG @ WSH Sun, 9 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,300 15.70 4,000 16.70
WSH @ PHI Mon, 3 Dec 2018, 8:15PM ET 5,300 5.10 4,000 7.10
WSH @ NO Mon, 8 Oct 2018, 8:15PM ET 5,700 7.50 4,300 9.50
GB @ WSH Sun, 23 Sep 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,700 12.50 4,200 14.50
IND @ WSH Sun, 16 Sep 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,000 4.70 4,900 5.70
WSH @ ARI Sun, 9 Sep 2018, 4:25PM ET 6,200 4.70 5,000 6.20
WSH @ NYG Sun, 31 Dec 2017, 1:00PM ET N/a 3.90 N/a 5.40
Season Team ReR ReTa ReYd ReYd/G ReTD Yd/Ta
2018 WSH 29 49 388 43.1 2 7.92
2017 WSH 66 104 789 52.6 3 7.59
Date Team Game Score Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
30 Dec 2018 WSH PHI @ WSH 24:0 1 7 7 0 1.2 1.7
22 Dec 2018 WSH WSH @ TEN 16:25 5 78 15.6 0 10.3 12.8
16 Dec 2018 WSH WSH @ JAC 16:13 4 46 11.5 0 6.6 8.6
9 Dec 2018 WSH NYG @ WSH 40:16 2 87 43.5 1 15.7 16.7
3 Dec 2018 WSH WSH @ PHI 13:28 4 36 9 0 5.1 7.1
8 Oct 2018 WSH WSH @ NO 19:43 4 55 13.8 0 7.5 9.5
23 Sep 2018 WSH GB @ WSH 17:31 4 39 9.8 1 12.5 14.5
16 Sep 2018 WSH IND @ WSH 21:9 2 8 4 0 4.7 5.7
9 Sep 2018 WSH WSH @ ARI 24:6 3 32 10.7 0 4.7 6.2
31 Dec 2017 WSH WSH @ NYG 10:18 3 25 8.3 0 3.9 5.4

As we sit here Wednesday evening, I can’t say that I would use Crowder with confidence in cash formats. I think the Duke product is a very solid PPR receiver, but to pretend that there isn’t major quarterbacking issues and serious dysfunction in Washington would be naive. The flip side of that equation is Josh Johnson has one more chance in the NFL and this Sunday is it. He’s been out of the league for years until these past few weeks and frankly hasn’t done a lot to say he should be back in 2019. Crowder has gotten along famously with Johnson, seeing a little over 20 percent of the throws from Johnson and catching all but two of them. He’s yet to find the end zone but in PPR you don’t care and the matchup isn’t going to get much better. The Eagles secondary has given up 282.7 yards through the air per game, most in the NFL. If Crowder is going to see 7-8 targets with Johnson under the helm, he can go for 6-60 and if he happens to score, you’re in the bonus. Crowder seems like a solid value this week to get to a higher salary spend.

Next game:

Time:

Odds:

WR

Chris Hogan

New England Patriots

Salary: 5,200 3,700
FPPG: 5.91 6.70
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
NE @ KC Sun, 20 Jan 2019, 6:40PM ET 5,200 7.00 3,700 9.50
LAC @ NE Sun, 13 Jan 2019, 1:05PM ET 5,500 2.80 3,900 4.30
NYJ @ NE Sun, 30 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,100 9.40 3,600 12.40
NE @ PIT Sun, 16 Dec 2018, 4:25PM ET 4,700 13.80 3,300 14.80
NE @ MIA Sun, 9 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 4,900 0 3,400 0
MIN @ NE Sun, 2 Dec 2018, 4:25PM ET 4,900 3.00 3,500 4.00
NE @ NYJ Sun, 25 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,100 5.70 3,800 6.70
NE @ TEN Sun, 11 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,800 0 3,900 0
GB @ NE Sun, 4 Nov 2018, 8:20PM ET 5,800 0 4,200 0
NE @ BUF Mon, 29 Oct 2018, 8:15PM ET 5,800 5.90 3,900 6.90
Season Team ReR ReTa ReYd ReYd/G ReTD Yd/Ta
2018 NE 8 18 58 19.3 0 3.22
2017 NE 34 59 439 48.8 5 7.44
Date Team Game Score Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
20 Jan 2019 NE NE @ KC 37:31 5 45 9 0 7 9.5
13 Jan 2019 NE LAC @ NE 28:41 3 13 4.3 0 2.8 4.3
30 Dec 2018 NE NYJ @ NE 3:38 6 64 10.7 0 9.4 12.4
16 Dec 2018 NE NE @ PIT 10:17 2 68 34 1 13.8 14.8
9 Dec 2018 NE NE @ MIA 33:34 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 Dec 2018 NE MIN @ NE 10:24 2 20 10 0 3 4
25 Nov 2018 NE NE @ NYJ 27:13 2 47 23.5 0 5.7 6.7
11 Nov 2018 NE NE @ TEN 10:34 0 0 0 0 0 0
4 Nov 2018 NE GB @ NE 17:31 0 0 0 0 0 0
29 Oct 2018 NE NE @ BUF 25:6 2 49 24.5 0 5.9 6.9

This might come as a surprise to some seeing as how Hogan left you with a fat goose egg last week and Tom Brady hasn’t exactly played like the Tommy Touchdown version that some people love. I get a little ill just writing people like Brady, but this Pittsburgh fan digresses. Anyways, one of the reasons the Patriots have been so dominant for so long is they adapt to their opponents better than any team in football. The Bills have a sterling pass defense while they’re vulnerable against the run. This week is different because the Jets aren’t great at any facet of defense but they have allowed the seventh most passing yards in football. With Rob Gronkowski a ghost and Josh Gordon off the field(save the jokes), Hogan is going to need to be a contributor if the Patriots want to navigate the AFC playoffs. The Jets are giving up 218.5 yards a game to just the receiver position and 18 of the 25 passing touchdowns have come via the receiver. I think Hogan gets back on track here just in time for New England’s annual run to the AFC title game.

Also Consider – Kendrick Bourne, Ted Ginn, Josh Reynolds

 

Tight End

Next game:

Time:

Odds:

TE

Vance McDonald

Pittsburgh Steelers

Salary: 5,600 4,200
FPPG: 7.33 9.30
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
CIN @ PIT Sun, 30 Dec 2018, 4:25PM ET 5,600 5.40 4,200 6.90
PIT @ NO Sun, 23 Dec 2018, 4:25PM ET 5,500 5.40 4,100 5.90
NE @ PIT Sun, 16 Dec 2018, 4:25PM ET 5,500 8.30 3,900 9.30
PIT @ OAK Sun, 9 Dec 2018, 4:25PM ET 5,500 5.70 3,800 7.70
LAC @ PIT Sun, 2 Dec 2018, 8:20PM ET 5,500 4.80 3,800 6.80
PIT @ DEN Sun, 25 Nov 2018, 4:25PM ET 5,500 4.20 4,300 5.70
PIT @ JAC Sun, 18 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,500 10.20 4,000 11.70
CAR @ PIT Thu, 8 Nov 2018, 8:20PM ET 5,300 12.40 3,600 14.40
PIT @ BAL Sun, 4 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,300 4.00 3,700 5.50
CLE @ PIT Sun, 28 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,300 6.20 3,700 7.70
Season Team ReR ReTa ReYd ReYd/G ReTD Yd/Ta
2018 PIT 50 72 610 40.7 4 8.47
2017 PIT 14 24 188 18.8 1 7.83
Date Team Game Score Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
30 Dec 2018 PIT CIN @ PIT 13:16 3 39 13 0 5.4 6.9
23 Dec 2018 PIT PIT @ NO 28:31 1 49 49 0 5.4 5.9
16 Dec 2018 PIT NE @ PIT 10:17 2 13 6.5 1 8.3 9.3
9 Dec 2018 PIT PIT @ OAK 21:24 4 37 9.3 0 5.7 7.7
2 Dec 2018 PIT LAC @ PIT 33:30 4 28 7 0 4.8 6.8
25 Nov 2018 PIT PIT @ DEN 17:24 3 27 9 0 4.2 5.7
18 Nov 2018 PIT PIT @ JAC 20:16 3 27 9 1 10.2 11.7
8 Nov 2018 PIT CAR @ PIT 21:52 4 44 11 1 12.4 14.4
4 Nov 2018 PIT PIT @ BAL 23:16 3 25 8.3 0 4 5.5
28 Oct 2018 PIT CLE @ PIT 18:33 3 47 15.7 0 6.2 7.7

Even going back to the days of Heath Miller, it seems like the Steelers have always used the tight end to torture the Bengals. That was once again true when these two teams met earlier this season, with McDonald going for over 13 DK points. That’s not terribly surprising considering the Bengals are the stone cold worst team against the position in PPR formats. A big part of that reason is they have given u the most touchdowns on the year, with 11. That’s closing in on a touchdown a game and Vance is going to make ’em dance yet agin. Five of his 10 red zone targets have come in the past three weeks and the Steelers main tight end checks in as the eight most expensive option on the board. Over $4,000 might not be the most ideal price, but if Blake Jarwin taught us anything it’s that cheap tight ends are a crapshoot. McDonald has had his issues with consistency but this spot feels almost as safe as it can get for him.

Also Consider – Austin Hooper, Cameron Brate and Jesse James as a super interesting GPP pivot away from McDonald

 

Defense/Special Teams

Miami Dolphins 

I’ve used Josh Allen these past few weeks as much as the next guy but there is no doubt that he takes some sacks and runs the ball over. His touchdown/turnover ratio is an even 13/13 so while he might put some points up, he gives the defense caches to score fantasy points as well. Buffalo has allowed 40 sacks on the season and while the Dolphins rank near the bottom with only 30 of their own, they can get it done in the right spot. Just look at last week when they got to the Jacksonville quarterback six times. The biggest factor is Miami ranks third in takeaways so I’m always interested a defense that has demonstrated that skill against a rookie quarterback who will make mistakes.