Week 16 NFL DFS Value Picks with Adam Strangis

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It’s incredible to think that this is the next to last big Sunday slate for the NFL. This slate is a little difficult to navigate because there are no fewer than 12 players that cost above $7,000 on DK that are all in smash spots. We can afford no more than three or maybe four if you eschew the highest salary and stick in the $7,000 range. This week more than any other, we have to find some value to make it all work. Hopefully we hit a little better than last week because the Jaguars stung me pretty hard while Dalvin Cook ran wild. Onto Week 16 and if you want to hear mine and Adam Pfeifer’s thoughts on the entire slate, be sure to check out the RotoCurve podcast! 

 

Quarterback

Next game:

Time:

Odds:

QB

Nick Foles

Philadelphia Eagles

Salary: 7,400 5,400
FPPG: 15.94 17.50
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
PHI @ NO Sun, 13 Jan 2019, 4:40PM ET 7,400 16.04 5,400 16.04
PHI @ CHI Sun, 6 Jan 2019, 4:40PM ET 7,300 16.54 5,400 16.54
PHI @ WSH Sun, 30 Dec 2018, 4:25PM ET 7,600 16.24 5,900 16.24
HOU @ PHI Sun, 23 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,000 31.94 4,700 35.94
PHI @ LAR Sun, 16 Dec 2018, 8:20PM ET 6,000 10.30 4,500 10.30
PHI @ TB Sun, 16 Sep 2018, 1:00PM ET 7,300 16.16 5,700 20.16
ATL @ PHI Thu, 6 Sep 2018, 8:55PM ET 7,400 5.58 5,900 6.08
PHI @ NE Sun, 4 Feb 2018, 6:30PM ET N/a 32.52 N/a 36.02
MIN @ PHI Sun, 21 Jan 2018, 6:40PM ET N/a 26.08 N/a 29.08
ATL @ PHI Sat, 13 Jan 2018, 4:35PM ET N/a 9.64 N/a 9.64
Season Team PaYd/G PaTD Pa QB Rating PaYd/Pa Avg
2018 PHI 288 7 96 7.2
2017 PHI 70.4 5 79.5 5.3
Date Team Game Score Comp/Att PaYd PaTD PaInt RuAtt RuYd RuTD FD FPts DK FPts
13 Jan 2019 PHI PHI @ NO 14:20 18/31 201 1 2 2 0 1 16.04 16.04
6 Jan 2019 PHI PHI @ CHI 16:15 25/40 266 2 2 1 -1 0 16.54 16.54
30 Dec 2018 PHI PHI @ WSH 24:0 28/33 221 2 1 2 4 0 16.24 16.24
23 Dec 2018 PHI HOU @ PHI 30:32 35/49 471 4 1 1 1 0 31.94 35.94
16 Dec 2018 PHI PHI @ LAR 30:23 24/31 270 0 1 2 5 0 10.3 10.3
16 Sep 2018 PHI PHI @ TB 21:27 35/48 334 1 0 3 8 0 16.16 20.16
6 Sep 2018 PHI ATL @ PHI 12:18 19/34 117 0 1 1 -1 0 5.58 6.08
4 Feb 2018 PHI PHI @ NE 41:33 28/43 373 3 1 0 0 0 32.52 36.02
21 Jan 2018 PHI MIN @ PHI 7:38 26/33 352 3 0 0 0 0 26.08 29.08
13 Jan 2018 PHI ATL @ PHI 10:15 23/30 246 0 0 5 -2 0 9.64 9.64

A Josh Collacchi special, the man that is known in some parts as BDN is a great play this week. Do I expect him to light up the Houston Texans? Not particularly but let’s take a look at the quarterback position overall. 11 of the potential 24 starters were at least $6,000(that is now 10 with the expectation of Cam Newton being put on the shelf for the year). Past that, the pickings get pretty slim. Dak Prescott would be one of the best other options but Foles is a whopping $1,000 cheaper. At his price tag, all you need is 200 yards and 2 touchdowns. That’s relatively easy to attain for a veteran like Foles since he’s facing a passing defense that is allowing the seventh most yards and 24 touchdowns through the air. This game is at home and Foles might just have some swagger left over from the Super Bowl run last year.

Also Consider – Prescott, Josh Allen, Sam Darnold

 

Running Back

Next game:

Time:

Odds:

RB

Marlon Mack

Indianapolis Colts

Salary: 7,300 5,800
FPPG: 14.13 16.80
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
IND @ KC Sat, 12 Jan 2019, 4:35PM ET 7,300 4.60 5,800 4.60
IND @ HOU Sat, 5 Jan 2019, 4:35PM ET 7,200 22.40 6,000 26.40
IND @ TEN Sun, 30 Dec 2018, 8:20PM ET 6,500 17.30 N/a 22.80
NYG @ IND Sun, 23 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 7,000 10.30 5,500 10.80
DAL @ IND Sun, 16 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,300 25.40 4,500 29.90
IND @ HOU Sun, 9 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,500 9.30 4,600 9.30
IND @ JAC Sun, 2 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,900 3.80 5,000 4.30
MIA @ IND Sun, 25 Nov 2018, 4:25PM ET 7,000 10.60 5,500 11.60
TEN @ IND Sun, 18 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 7,000 13.40 6,000 13.90
JAC @ IND Sun, 11 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 7,400 8.80 6,000 9.80
Season Team RuAtt RuYd/G RuTD RuYd/R Avg RecR RecTa RecYd/G RecTD
2018 IND 195 75.7 9 4.7 17 26 8.6 1
2017 IND 93 25.6 3 3.8 21 33 16.1 1
Date Team Game Score RuAtt RuYd RuAvg RuTD Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
12 Jan 2019 IND IND @ KC 13:31 9 46 5.1 0 0 0 0 0 4.6 4.6
5 Jan 2019 IND IND @ HOU 21:7 24 148 6.2 1 2 6 3 0 22.4 26.4
30 Dec 2018 IND IND @ TEN 33:17 25 119 4.8 1 3 -1 -0.3 0 17.3 22.8
23 Dec 2018 IND NYG @ IND 27:28 12 34 2.8 1 1 4 4 0 10.3 10.8
16 Dec 2018 IND DAL @ IND 0:23 27 139 5.1 2 1 10 10 0 25.4 29.9
9 Dec 2018 IND IND @ HOU 24:21 14 33 2.4 1 0 0 0 0 9.3 9.3
2 Dec 2018 IND IND @ JAC 0:6 8 27 3.4 0 1 6 6 0 3.8 4.3
25 Nov 2018 IND MIA @ IND 24:27 15 85 5.7 0 2 11 5.5 0 10.6 11.6
18 Nov 2018 IND TEN @ IND 10:38 16 61 3.8 1 1 8 8 0 13.4 13.9
11 Nov 2018 IND JAC @ IND 26:29 12 29 2.4 0 2 9 4.5 0 8.8 9.8

I’ve usually tried to stick to players that are $5,000 or cheaper but Mack represents too good of a value relative to the field to pass up. He’s ranging from $4,000 to $2,000 cheaper than some of the high priced studs but he has the same relative outcomes as the rest of the pack. Mack went over 60 percent of the snaps which is pretty close to the bell cow mark. Even though he’s not exactly thought of in that light, the Colts don’t seem to mind using him as a true bell cow when they can. Indy beat up on Dallas last week and there’s little reason to think the Giants can mount much of a challenge since the game is indoors in Indianapolis. The Giants run defense has bottomed out after trading Snacks Harrison, falling to the fifth most yards per game at 128.4 per contest. I would expect another 18-22 touch effort for Mack in this one, putting 100 yards rushing and a trip to the end zone firmly in play.

Next game:

Time:

Odds:

RB

Jordan Howard

Chicago Bears

Salary: 7,600 4,600
FPPG: 10.63 11.70
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
PHI @ CHI Sun, 6 Jan 2019, 4:40PM ET 7,600 3.50 4,600 3.50
CHI @ MIN Sun, 30 Dec 2018, 4:25PM ET 6,000 23.90 4,000 27.40
CHI @ SF Sun, 23 Dec 2018, 4:05PM ET 6,000 14.00 4,300 15.00
GB @ CHI Sun, 16 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,500 14.00 3,900 14.50
LAR @ CHI Sun, 9 Dec 2018, 8:20PM ET 5,700 10.80 3,900 14.30
CHI @ NYG Sun, 2 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,700 8.50 4,000 9.00
CHI @ DET Thu, 22 Nov 2018, 12:30PM ET 6,100 2.00 4,100 2.50
MIN @ CHI Sun, 18 Nov 2018, 8:20PM ET 6,100 7.00 4,300 7.50
DET @ CHI Sun, 11 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,500 3.70 4,700 4.20
CHI @ BUF Sun, 4 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,200 16.70 4,700 16.70
Season Team RuAtt RuYd/G RuTD RuYd/R Avg RecR RecTa RecYd/G RecTD
2018 CHI 250 58.4 9 3.7 20 27 9.1 0
2017 CHI 276 70.1 9 4.1 23 32 7.8 0
Date Team Game Score RuAtt RuYd RuAvg RuTD Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
6 Jan 2019 CHI PHI @ CHI 16:15 10 35 3.5 0 0 0 0 0 3.5 3.5
30 Dec 2018 CHI CHI @ MIN 24:10 21 109 5.2 2 1 5 5 0 23.9 27.4
23 Dec 2018 CHI CHI @ SF 14:9 13 53 4.1 1 2 17 8.5 0 14 15
16 Dec 2018 CHI GB @ CHI 17:24 19 60 3.2 1 1 15 15 0 14 14.5
9 Dec 2018 CHI LAR @ CHI 6:15 19 101 5.3 0 1 2 2 0 10.8 14.3
2 Dec 2018 CHI CHI @ NYG 27:30 16 76 4.8 0 1 4 4 0 8.5 9
22 Nov 2018 CHI CHI @ DET 23:16 7 13 1.9 0 1 2 2 0 2 2.5
18 Nov 2018 CHI MIN @ CHI 20:25 18 63 3.5 0 1 2 2 0 7 7.5
11 Nov 2018 CHI DET @ CHI 22:34 11 21 1.9 0 1 11 11 0 3.7 4.2
4 Nov 2018 CHI CHI @ BUF 41:9 14 47 3.4 2 0 0 0 0 16.7 16.7

I honestly didn’t think that I would be considering Howard at any point the rest of the way this season but here we are. Howard has gotten around 55 percent of the snaps these past two weeks and has recorded 20 touches in each game. He’s responded with over 14 DK points in each game but the site clearly doesn’t trust him, having bumped his price up to just $4,300. Since the Bears have at least a home playoff game locked up, they will now be balancing trying to stay alive for a first-round bye and protecting their most important players. It would seem that they view Tarik Cohen as more important, so I would be surprised if Howard didn’t see another big workload. We just saw Chris Carson rip up the 49ers defense for almost 120 yards last week and I think Howard has a game of at least 80 yards and a touchdown.

Also Consider – Kalen Ballage(GPP only), Elijah McGuire, Lamar Miller(cash only)

 

Wide Receiver

Next game:

Time:

Odds:

WR

Demaryius Thomas

Houston Texans

Salary: 5,400 4,400
FPPG: 8.48 10.60
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
HOU @ PHI Sun, 23 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,300 5.20 4,700 6.70
HOU @ NYJ Sat, 15 Dec 2018, 4:30PM ET 5,400 8.90 4,700 11.90
IND @ HOU Sun, 9 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,400 6.80 4,100 8.80
CLE @ HOU Sun, 2 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,300 4.70 4,300 6.20
TEN @ HOU Mon, 26 Nov 2018, 8:15PM ET 5,300 17.80 4,500 19.80
HOU @ DEN Sun, 4 Nov 2018, 4:05PM ET 5,800 7.60 4,500 9.10
HOU @ DEN Sun, 4 Nov 2018, 4:05PM ET 5,800 7.60 4,500 9.10
DEN @ KC Sun, 28 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,300 4.50 4,900 6.00
DEN @ ARI Thu, 18 Oct 2018, 8:20PM ET 6,500 6.70 5,200 9.20
LAR @ DEN Sun, 14 Oct 2018, 4:05PM ET 6,500 13.20 5,800 14.70
Season Team ReR ReTa ReYd ReYd/G ReTD Yd/Ta
2018 HOU 23 33 275 39.3 2 8.33
2018 DEN 36 56 402 50.3 3 7.18
2017 DEN 83 141 949 59.3 5 6.73
Date Team Game Score Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
23 Dec 2018 HOU HOU @ PHI 30:32 3 37 12.3 0 5.2 6.7
15 Dec 2018 HOU HOU @ NYJ 29:22 6 59 9.8 0 8.9 11.9
9 Dec 2018 HOU IND @ HOU 24:21 4 48 12 0 6.8 8.8
2 Dec 2018 HOU CLE @ HOU 13:29 3 32 10.7 0 4.7 6.2
26 Nov 2018 HOU TEN @ HOU 17:34 4 38 9.5 2 17.8 19.8
4 Nov 2018 HOU HOU @ DEN 19:17 3 61 20.3 0 7.6 9.1
28 Oct 2018 DEN DEN @ KC 23:30 3 30 10 0 4.5 6
18 Oct 2018 DEN DEN @ ARI 45:10 5 42 8.4 0 6.7 9.2
14 Oct 2018 DEN LAR @ DEN 23:20 3 57 19 1 13.2 14.7
7 Oct 2018 DEN DEN @ NYJ 16:34 5 105 21 1 19 24.5

Another very boring option, I would not expect all that much from Thomas in this game. I don’t think he has any type of ceiling and wouldn’t play him in any GPP contest despite a good matchup. The Eagles secondary has been a facet of their defense that has been a popular target all season, with good reason. They’ve given up the second most passing yards this year and while they’ve only given up 20 touchdowns, I’m just looking for six receptions for 60 yards to get me to 12 DK points so I can play three running backs that could combine for 75 touches. If Foles can lead the Eagles to another 30 point effort, the Teams will have to pass more than they have on most weeks this year.

Next game:

Time:

Odds:

WR

Robby Anderson

NY Jets

Salary: 7,000 5,600
FPPG: 9.81 12.20
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
NYJ @ NE Sun, 30 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 7,000 3.90 5,600 5.40
GB @ NYJ Sun, 23 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,900 24.50 4,500 32.00
HOU @ NYJ Sat, 15 Dec 2018, 4:30PM ET 6,000 19.10 4,200 22.60
NYJ @ BUF Sun, 9 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,200 15.60 3,600 17.60
NYJ @ TEN Sun, 2 Dec 2018, 4:05PM ET 5,000 6.80 3,500 8.80
NE @ NYJ Sun, 25 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,200 3.20 3,600 4.20
NYJ @ MIA Sun, 4 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,200 5.30 4,300 7.30
MIN @ NYJ Sun, 21 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,400 5.90 4,500 7.40
IND @ NYJ Sun, 14 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,500 5.40 4,600 6.90
DEN @ NYJ Sun, 7 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 4,900 25.80 3,800 30.30
Season Team ReR ReTa ReYd ReYd/G ReTD Yd/Ta
2018 NYJ 50 94 752 53.7 6 8.00
2017 NYJ 63 114 941 58.8 7 8.25
Date Team Game Score Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
30 Dec 2018 NYJ NYJ @ NE 3:38 3 24 8 0 3.9 5.4
23 Dec 2018 NYJ GB @ NYJ 44:38 9 140 15.6 1 24.5 32
15 Dec 2018 NYJ HOU @ NYJ 29:22 7 96 13.7 1 19.1 22.6
9 Dec 2018 NYJ NYJ @ BUF 27:23 4 76 19 1 15.6 17.6
2 Dec 2018 NYJ NYJ @ TEN 22:26 4 48 12 0 6.8 8.8
25 Nov 2018 NYJ NE @ NYJ 27:13 2 22 11 0 3.2 4.2
4 Nov 2018 NYJ NYJ @ MIA 6:13 4 32 8 0 5.3 7.3
21 Oct 2018 NYJ MIN @ NYJ 37:17 3 44 14.7 0 5.9 7.4
14 Oct 2018 NYJ IND @ NYJ 34:42 3 39 13 0 5.4 6.9
7 Oct 2018 NYJ DEN @ NYJ 16:34 3 123 41 2 25.8 30.3

Rising from the fantasy graveyard, Anderson gets another positive matchup and is coming off a great game last week. It was a very nice call by the other Adam to put him in lineups and Anderson helped me win some Saturday buckies. Anderson has seen an upswing in targets the past three weeks with 7, 7 and 11 targets over that time span. Of the 24 passing touchdowns the Packers have given up, 20 of them have come from receivers. In fact, the Packers are fourth in PPR points given up to the receiver position. If Anderson can see another eight targets in this game, he can pay off his modest price tag and I’m even more interested since Aaron Rodgers is slated to play on the other side.

Also Consider – Isaiah McKenzie, Dante Pettis

 

Tight End

Next game:

Time:

Odds:

TE

Blake Jarwin

Dallas Cowboys

Salary: 5,400 3,400
FPPG: 4.78 4.90
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
DAL @ LAR Sat, 12 Jan 2019, 8:15PM ET 5,400 2.70 3,400 3.70
SEA @ DAL Sat, 5 Jan 2019, 8:15PM ET 5,800 3.00 3,300 4.50
DAL @ NYG Sun, 30 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 4,500 33.40 2,800 39.90
TB @ DAL Sun, 23 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 4,700 1.80 3,000 2.80
DAL @ IND Sun, 16 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 4,700 6.50 2,700 8.50
PHI @ DAL Sun, 9 Dec 2018, 4:25PM ET 4,000 9.10 2,500 12.60
NO @ DAL Thu, 29 Nov 2018, 8:20PM ET 4,000 1.70 2,500 2.20
WSH @ DAL Thu, 22 Nov 2018, 4:30PM ET 4,000 3.50 2,500 4.50
TEN @ DAL Mon, 5 Nov 2018, 8:15PM ET 4,000 2.50 2,500 3.50
DAL @ WSH Sun, 21 Oct 2018, 4:25PM ET 4,000 2.10 2,500 2.60
Season Team ReR ReTa ReYd ReYd/G ReTD Yd/Ta
2018 DAL 27 36 307 19.2 3 8.53
Date Team Game Score Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
12 Jan 2019 DAL DAL @ LAR 22:30 2 17 8.5 0 2.7 3.7
5 Jan 2019 DAL SEA @ DAL 22:24 3 15 5 0 3 4.5
30 Dec 2018 DAL DAL @ NYG 36:35 7 119 17 3 33.4 39.9
23 Dec 2018 DAL TB @ DAL 20:27 2 8 4 0 1.8 2.8
16 Dec 2018 DAL DAL @ IND 0:23 4 45 11.3 0 6.5 8.5
9 Dec 2018 DAL PHI @ DAL 23:29 7 56 8 0 9.1 12.6
29 Nov 2018 DAL NO @ DAL 10:13 1 12 12 0 1.7 2.2
22 Nov 2018 DAL WSH @ DAL 23:31 2 25 12.5 0 3.5 4.5
5 Nov 2018 DAL TEN @ DAL 28:14 2 15 7.5 0 2.5 3.5
21 Oct 2018 DAL DAL @ WSH 17:20 1 16 16 0 2.1 2.6

I’m not 100 percent on if I would use Jarwin in cash, but the production the past couple of weeks have been noticeable. His snaps have gone from 39 to 58 to 62 percent and the past two weeks have meshed with a big swing in his role in the offense. Jarwin has seen seven targets in each of the past two games and it would really give the Cowboys a new dimension to their offense if Jarwin can keep it up. He’s had at least four receptions and 45 yards the past two weeks and the matchup is fantastic for him at home this week. The Bucs have let up five touchdowns to tight ends and 967 yards, which is fifth most in the league.

Also Consider – David Njoku, Cameron Brate

 

Defense/Special Teams

New Orleans Saints 

I might sound crazy here but the Saints are at home and cheap enough that they could pay off as a low-owned option in a GPP. That is without a doubt the only format I would use them in but the Saints are tied for 10th in takeaways and sacks on the season. For all the offensive prowess, the Steelers are seventh in giveaways in part because Ben Roethlisberger is a bit reckless with the ball(yup, I can admit that). He’ll have to drop back at least 40 times in this spot with the Saints offense being back in the dome and that will present added opportunities for sacks and fumbles. Nobody will play the Saints D/ST in a shootout and they could be a massive edge.