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Week 16 NFL DFS Value Picks with Adam Strangis

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It’s incredible to think that this is the next to last big Sunday slate for the NFL. This slate is a little difficult to navigate because there are no fewer than 12 players that cost above $7,000 on DK that are all in smash spots. We can afford no more than three or maybe four if you eschew the highest salary and stick in the $7,000 range. This week more than any other, we have to find some value to make it all work. Hopefully we hit a little better than last week because the Jaguars stung me pretty hard while Dalvin Cook ran wild. Onto Week 16 and if you want to hear mine and Adam Pfeifer’s thoughts on the entire slate, be sure to check out the RotoCurve podcast! 

 

Quarterback

Next game:

Time:

Odds:

QB

Nick Foles

Jacksonville Jaguars

Salary: 6,300 5,300
FPPG: 9.94 10.40
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
TB @ JAC Sun, 1 Dec 2019, 1:00PM ET 7,500 -0.98 5,700 1.02
JAC @ TEN Sun, 24 Nov 2019, 4:05PM ET 7,200 14.88 5,400 14.88
JAC @ IND Sun, 17 Nov 2019, 1:00PM ET 7,000 18.84 5,600 18.84
KC @ JAC Sun, 8 Sep 2019, 1:00PM ET 6,500 7.00 5,300 7.00
PHI @ NO Sun, 13 Jan 2019, 4:40PM ET 7,400 16.04 5,400 16.04
PHI @ CHI Sun, 6 Jan 2019, 4:40PM ET 7,300 16.54 5,400 16.54
PHI @ WSH Sun, 30 Dec 2018, 4:25PM ET 7,600 16.24 5,900 16.24
HOU @ PHI Sun, 23 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,000 31.94 4,700 35.94
PHI @ LAR Sun, 16 Dec 2018, 8:20PM ET 6,000 10.30 4,500 10.30
PHI @ TB Sun, 16 Sep 2018, 1:00PM ET 7,300 16.16 5,700 20.16
Season Team PaYd/G PaTD Pa QB Rating PaYd/Pa Avg
2019 JAC 189.8 3 84.6 6.3
2018 PHI 288 7 96 7.2
Date Team Game Score Comp/Att PaYd PaTD PaInt RuAtt RuYd RuTD FD FPts DK FPts
1 Dec 2019 JAC TB @ JAC 28:11 7/14 93 0 1 1 3 0 -0.98 1.02
24 Nov 2019 JAC JAC @ TEN 20:42 32/48 272 0 0 3 20 0 14.88 14.88
17 Nov 2019 JAC JAC @ IND 13:33 33/47 296 2 1 0 0 0 18.84 18.84
8 Sep 2019 JAC KC @ JAC 40:26 5/8 75 1 0 0 0 0 7 7
13 Jan 2019 PHI PHI @ NO 14:20 18/31 201 1 2 2 0 1 16.04 16.04
6 Jan 2019 PHI PHI @ CHI 16:15 25/40 266 2 2 1 -1 0 16.54 16.54
30 Dec 2018 PHI PHI @ WSH 24:0 28/33 221 2 1 2 4 0 16.24 16.24
23 Dec 2018 PHI HOU @ PHI 30:32 35/49 471 4 1 1 1 0 31.94 35.94
16 Dec 2018 PHI PHI @ LAR 30:23 24/31 270 0 1 2 5 0 10.3 10.3
16 Sep 2018 PHI PHI @ TB 21:27 35/48 334 1 0 3 8 0 16.16 20.16

A Josh Collacchi special, the man that is known in some parts as BDN is a great play this week. Do I expect him to light up the Houston Texans? Not particularly but let’s take a look at the quarterback position overall. 11 of the potential 24 starters were at least $6,000(that is now 10 with the expectation of Cam Newton being put on the shelf for the year). Past that, the pickings get pretty slim. Dak Prescott would be one of the best other options but Foles is a whopping $1,000 cheaper. At his price tag, all you need is 200 yards and 2 touchdowns. That’s relatively easy to attain for a veteran like Foles since he’s facing a passing defense that is allowing the seventh most yards and 24 touchdowns through the air. This game is at home and Foles might just have some swagger left over from the Super Bowl run last year.

Also Consider – Prescott, Josh Allen, Sam Darnold

 

Running Back

Next game:

Time:

Odds:

RB

Marlon Mack

Indianapolis Colts

Salary: 7,300 6,900
FPPG: 11.89 13.10
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
IND @ JAC Sun, 29 Dec 2019, 4:25PM ET 7,300 19.70 6,900 19.70
CAR @ IND Sun, 22 Dec 2019, 1:00PM ET 7,300 17.10 6,200 18.10
IND @ NO Mon, 16 Dec 2019, 8:15PM ET 7,200 1.90 5,500 1.90
IND @ TB Sun, 8 Dec 2019, 1:00PM ET 7,300 9.80 6,000 9.80
JAC @ IND Sun, 17 Nov 2019, 1:00PM ET 7,300 16.90 6,400 19.90
MIA @ IND Sun, 10 Nov 2019, 4:05PM ET 7,400 8.70 7,000 9.20
IND @ PIT Sun, 3 Nov 2019, 1:00PM ET 6,900 8.90 6,300 8.90
DEN @ IND Sun, 27 Oct 2019, 1:00PM ET 6,800 15.50 6,100 16.00
HOU @ IND Sun, 20 Oct 2019, 1:00PM ET 7,100 7.10 6,000 8.60
IND @ KC Sun, 6 Oct 2019, 8:20PM ET 6,700 16.30 5,600 20.80
Season Team RuAtt RuYd/G RuTD RuYd/R Avg RecR RecTa RecYd/G RecTD
2019 IND 247 77.9 8 4.4 14 17 5.9 0
2018 IND 195 75.7 9 4.7 17 26 8.6 1
Date Team Game Score RuAtt RuYd RuAvg RuTD Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
29 Dec 2019 IND IND @ JAC 20:38 15 77 5.1 2 0 0 0 0 19.7 19.7
22 Dec 2019 IND CAR @ IND 6:38 16 95 5.9 1 2 6 3 0 17.1 18.1
16 Dec 2019 IND IND @ NO 7:34 11 19 1.7 0 0 0 0 0 1.9 1.9
8 Dec 2019 IND IND @ TB 35:38 13 38 2.9 1 0 0 0 0 9.8 9.8
17 Nov 2019 IND JAC @ IND 13:33 14 109 7.8 1 0 0 0 0 16.9 19.9
10 Nov 2019 IND MIA @ IND 16:12 19 74 3.9 0 1 8 8 0 8.7 9.2
3 Nov 2019 IND IND @ PIT 24:26 21 89 4.2 0 0 0 0 0 8.9 8.9
27 Oct 2019 IND DEN @ IND 13:15 19 76 4 1 1 14 14 0 15.5 16
20 Oct 2019 IND HOU @ IND 23:30 18 44 2.4 0 3 12 4 0 7.1 8.6
6 Oct 2019 IND IND @ KC 19:13 29 132 4.6 0 3 16 5.3 0 16.3 20.8

I’ve usually tried to stick to players that are $5,000 or cheaper but Mack represents too good of a value relative to the field to pass up. He’s ranging from $4,000 to $2,000 cheaper than some of the high priced studs but he has the same relative outcomes as the rest of the pack. Mack went over 60 percent of the snaps which is pretty close to the bell cow mark. Even though he’s not exactly thought of in that light, the Colts don’t seem to mind using him as a true bell cow when they can. Indy beat up on Dallas last week and there’s little reason to think the Giants can mount much of a challenge since the game is indoors in Indianapolis. The Giants run defense has bottomed out after trading Snacks Harrison, falling to the fifth most yards per game at 128.4 per contest. I would expect another 18-22 touch effort for Mack in this one, putting 100 yards rushing and a trip to the end zone firmly in play.

Next game:

Time:

Odds:

RB

Jordan Howard

Philadelphia Eagles

Salary: 5,800 4,900
FPPG: 11.82 11.10
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
CHI @ PHI Sun, 3 Nov 2019, 1:00PM ET 6,300 14.80 5,100 15.30
PHI @ BUF Sun, 27 Oct 2019, 1:00PM ET 6,000 17.60 4,600 18.10
PHI @ DAL Sun, 20 Oct 2019, 8:20PM ET 6,000 6.60 4,800 7.60
PHI @ MIN Sun, 13 Oct 2019, 1:00PM ET 6,200 4.90 4,900 4.90
NYJ @ PHI Sun, 6 Oct 2019, 1:00PM ET 6,500 12.20 5,100 12.20
PHI @ GB Thu, 26 Sep 2019, 8:20PM ET 5,500 31.00 4,600 32.50
DET @ PHI Sun, 22 Sep 2019, 1:00PM ET 5,600 9.70 4,100 9.70
PHI @ ATL Sun, 15 Sep 2019, 8:20PM ET 5,600 3.10 4,300 3.60
WSH @ PHI Sun, 8 Sep 2019, 1:00PM ET 5,800 6.50 4,200 7.50
PHI @ CHI Sun, 6 Jan 2019, 4:40PM ET 7,600 3.50 4,600 3.50
Season Team RuAtt RuYd/G RuTD RuYd/R Avg RecR RecTa RecYd/G RecTD
2019 PHI 119 52.5 6 4.4 10 14 6.9 1
2018 CHI 250 58.4 9 3.7 20 27 9.1 0
Date Team Game Score RuAtt RuYd RuAvg RuTD Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
3 Nov 2019 PHI CHI @ PHI 14:22 19 82 4.3 1 1 1 1 0 14.8 15.3
27 Oct 2019 PHI PHI @ BUF 31:13 23 96 4.2 1 1 15 15 0 17.6 18.1
20 Oct 2019 PHI PHI @ DAL 10:37 11 50 4.5 0 2 6 3 0 6.6 7.6
13 Oct 2019 PHI PHI @ MIN 20:38 13 49 3.8 0 0 0 0 0 4.9 4.9
6 Oct 2019 PHI NYJ @ PHI 6:31 13 62 4.8 1 0 0 0 0 12.2 12.2
26 Sep 2019 PHI PHI @ GB 34:27 15 87 5.8 2 3 28 9.3 1 31 32.5
22 Sep 2019 PHI DET @ PHI 27:24 11 37 3.4 1 0 0 0 0 9.7 9.7
15 Sep 2019 PHI PHI @ ATL 20:24 8 18 2.3 0 1 8 8 0 3.1 3.6
8 Sep 2019 PHI WSH @ PHI 27:32 6 44 7.3 0 2 11 5.5 0 6.5 7.5
6 Jan 2019 CHI PHI @ CHI 16:15 10 35 3.5 0 0 0 0 0 3.5 3.5

I honestly didn’t think that I would be considering Howard at any point the rest of the way this season but here we are. Howard has gotten around 55 percent of the snaps these past two weeks and has recorded 20 touches in each game. He’s responded with over 14 DK points in each game but the site clearly doesn’t trust him, having bumped his price up to just $4,300. Since the Bears have at least a home playoff game locked up, they will now be balancing trying to stay alive for a first-round bye and protecting their most important players. It would seem that they view Tarik Cohen as more important, so I would be surprised if Howard didn’t see another big workload. We just saw Chris Carson rip up the 49ers defense for almost 120 yards last week and I think Howard has a game of at least 80 yards and a touchdown.

Also Consider – Kalen Ballage(GPP only), Elijah McGuire, Lamar Miller(cash only)

 

Wide Receiver

Next game:

Time:

Odds:

WR

Demaryius Thomas

NY Jets

Salary: 4,500 3,400
FPPG: 6.12 7.80
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
MIA @ NYJ Sun, 8 Dec 2019, 1:00PM ET 5,000 9.80 3,700 10.80
NYJ @ CIN Sun, 1 Dec 2019, 1:00PM ET 5,200 3.80 3,600 5.30
OAK @ NYJ Sun, 24 Nov 2019, 1:00PM ET 5,200 3.20 3,800 4.20
NYJ @ WSH Sun, 17 Nov 2019, 1:00PM ET 5,200 6.40 3,900 8.40
NYG @ NYJ Sun, 10 Nov 2019, 1:00PM ET 4,700 11.40 3,500 14.40
NYJ @ MIA Sun, 3 Nov 2019, 1:00PM ET 4,800 2.90 4,000 3.90
NYJ @ JAC Sun, 27 Oct 2019, 1:00PM ET 4,800 8.80 3,300 11.30
NE @ NYJ Mon, 21 Oct 2019, 8:15PM ET 4,800 5.70 3,500 7.20
DAL @ NYJ Sun, 13 Oct 2019, 4:25PM ET 4,800 8.20 3,300 10.20
NYJ @ PHI Sun, 6 Oct 2019, 1:00PM ET 4,500 6.70 3,600 8.70
Season Team ReR ReTa ReYd ReYd/G ReTD Yd/Ta
2019 NYJ 36 58 433 39.4 1 7.47
2018 DEN 36 56 402 50.3 3 7.18
2018 HOU 23 33 275 39.3 2 8.33
Date Team Game Score Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
8 Dec 2019 NYJ MIA @ NYJ 21:22 2 28 14 1 9.8 10.8
1 Dec 2019 NYJ NYJ @ CIN 6:22 3 23 7.7 0 3.8 5.3
24 Nov 2019 NYJ OAK @ NYJ 3:34 2 22 11 0 3.2 4.2
17 Nov 2019 NYJ NYJ @ WSH 34:17 4 44 11 0 6.4 8.4
10 Nov 2019 NYJ NYG @ NYJ 27:34 6 84 14 0 11.4 14.4
3 Nov 2019 NYJ NYJ @ MIA 18:26 2 19 9.5 0 2.9 3.9
27 Oct 2019 NYJ NYJ @ JAC 15:29 5 63 12.6 0 8.8 11.3
21 Oct 2019 NYJ NE @ NYJ 33:0 3 42 14 0 5.7 7.2
13 Oct 2019 NYJ DAL @ NYJ 22:24 4 62 15.5 0 8.2 10.2
6 Oct 2019 NYJ NYJ @ PHI 6:31 4 47 11.8 0 6.7 8.7

Another very boring option, I would not expect all that much from Thomas in this game. I don’t think he has any type of ceiling and wouldn’t play him in any GPP contest despite a good matchup. The Eagles secondary has been a facet of their defense that has been a popular target all season, with good reason. They’ve given up the second most passing yards this year and while they’ve only given up 20 touchdowns, I’m just looking for six receptions for 60 yards to get me to 12 DK points so I can play three running backs that could combine for 75 touches. If Foles can lead the Eagles to another 30 point effort, the Teams will have to pass more than they have on most weeks this year.

Next game:

Time:

Odds:

WR

Robby Anderson

NY Jets

Salary: 5,800 5,300
FPPG: 8.87 11.10
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
NYJ @ BUF Sun, 29 Dec 2019, 1:00PM ET 5,800 3.30 5,300 4.80
PIT @ NYJ Sun, 22 Dec 2019, 1:00PM ET 6,100 10.20 5,700 11.20
NYJ @ BAL Thu, 12 Dec 2019, 8:20PM ET 6,700 10.60 5,700 12.60
MIA @ NYJ Sun, 8 Dec 2019, 1:00PM ET 6,400 21.50 5,100 28.00
NYJ @ CIN Sun, 1 Dec 2019, 1:00PM ET 6,100 13.60 4,800 20.10
OAK @ NYJ Sun, 24 Nov 2019, 1:00PM ET 5,400 16.60 4,800 18.60
NYJ @ WSH Sun, 17 Nov 2019, 1:00PM ET 5,400 7.10 4,900 7.60
NYG @ NYJ Sun, 10 Nov 2019, 1:00PM ET 5,900 1.60 4,700 2.10
NYJ @ MIA Sun, 3 Nov 2019, 1:00PM ET 6,200 4.30 5,500 5.30
NYJ @ JAC Sun, 27 Oct 2019, 1:00PM ET 6,200 6.30 4,900 8.30
Season Team ReR ReTa ReYd ReYd/G ReTD Yd/Ta
2019 NYJ 52 96 779 48.7 5 8.11
2018 NYJ 50 94 752 53.7 6 8.00
Date Team Game Score Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
29 Dec 2019 NYJ NYJ @ BUF 13:6 3 18 6 0 3.3 4.8
22 Dec 2019 NYJ PIT @ NYJ 10:16 2 32 16 1 10.2 11.2
12 Dec 2019 NYJ NYJ @ BAL 21:42 4 66 16.5 0 10.6 12.6
8 Dec 2019 NYJ MIA @ NYJ 21:22 7 116 16.6 1 21.5 28
1 Dec 2019 NYJ NYJ @ CIN 6:22 7 101 14.4 0 13.6 20.1
24 Nov 2019 NYJ OAK @ NYJ 3:34 4 86 21.5 1 16.6 18.6
17 Nov 2019 NYJ NYJ @ WSH 34:17 1 6 6 1 7.1 7.6
10 Nov 2019 NYJ NYG @ NYJ 27:34 1 11 11 0 1.6 2.1
3 Nov 2019 NYJ NYJ @ MIA 18:26 2 33 16.5 0 4.3 5.3
27 Oct 2019 NYJ NYJ @ JAC 15:29 4 43 10.8 0 6.3 8.3

Rising from the fantasy graveyard, Anderson gets another positive matchup and is coming off a great game last week. It was a very nice call by the other Adam to put him in lineups and Anderson helped me win some Saturday buckies. Anderson has seen an upswing in targets the past three weeks with 7, 7 and 11 targets over that time span. Of the 24 passing touchdowns the Packers have given up, 20 of them have come from receivers. In fact, the Packers are fourth in PPR points given up to the receiver position. If Anderson can see another eight targets in this game, he can pay off his modest price tag and I’m even more interested since Aaron Rodgers is slated to play on the other side.

Also Consider – Isaiah McKenzie, Dante Pettis

 

Tight End

Next game:

Time:

Odds:

TE

Blake Jarwin

Dallas Cowboys

Salary: 5,300 2,900
FPPG: 5.00 5.70
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
WSH @ DAL Sun, 29 Dec 2019, 4:25PM ET 5,300 0 2,900 0
DAL @ PHI Sun, 22 Dec 2019, 4:25PM ET 5,300 1.90 2,900 2.40
LAR @ DAL Sun, 15 Dec 2019, 4:25PM ET 5,400 5.00 3,000 6.00
DAL @ CHI Thu, 5 Dec 2019, 8:20PM ET 4,800 8.00 3,000 11.00
BUF @ DAL Thu, 28 Nov 2019, 4:30PM ET 4,800 1.90 3,000 2.90
DAL @ NE Sun, 24 Nov 2019, 4:25PM ET 4,500 3.20 2,900 4.70
DAL @ DET Sun, 17 Nov 2019, 1:00PM ET 4,500 4.80 2,900 5.80
MIN @ DAL Sun, 10 Nov 2019, 8:20PM ET 4,500 5.00 2,800 6.50
DAL @ NYG Mon, 4 Nov 2019, 8:15PM ET 4,500 10.70 2,800 11.20
PHI @ DAL Sun, 20 Oct 2019, 8:20PM ET 4,500 6.60 2,900 7.10
Season Team ReR ReTa ReYd ReYd/G ReTD Yd/Ta
2019 DAL 31 41 365 22.8 3 8.90
2018 DAL 27 36 307 19.2 3 8.53
Date Team Game Score Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
29 Dec 2019 DAL WSH @ DAL 16:47 0 0 0 0 0 0
22 Dec 2019 DAL DAL @ PHI 9:17 1 14 14 0 1.9 2.4
15 Dec 2019 DAL LAR @ DAL 21:44 2 40 20 0 5 6
5 Dec 2019 DAL DAL @ CHI 24:31 6 50 8.3 0 8 11
28 Nov 2019 DAL BUF @ DAL 26:15 2 9 4.5 0 1.9 2.9
24 Nov 2019 DAL DAL @ NE 9:13 3 17 5.7 0 3.2 4.7
17 Nov 2019 DAL DAL @ DET 35:27 2 38 19 0 4.8 5.8
10 Nov 2019 DAL MIN @ DAL 28:24 3 35 11.7 0 5 6.5
4 Nov 2019 DAL DAL @ NYG 37:18 1 42 42 1 10.7 11.2
20 Oct 2019 DAL PHI @ DAL 10:37 1 1 1 1 6.6 7.1

I’m not 100 percent on if I would use Jarwin in cash, but the production the past couple of weeks have been noticeable. His snaps have gone from 39 to 58 to 62 percent and the past two weeks have meshed with a big swing in his role in the offense. Jarwin has seen seven targets in each of the past two games and it would really give the Cowboys a new dimension to their offense if Jarwin can keep it up. He’s had at least four receptions and 45 yards the past two weeks and the matchup is fantastic for him at home this week. The Bucs have let up five touchdowns to tight ends and 967 yards, which is fifth most in the league.

Also Consider – David Njoku, Cameron Brate

 

Defense/Special Teams

New Orleans Saints 

I might sound crazy here but the Saints are at home and cheap enough that they could pay off as a low-owned option in a GPP. That is without a doubt the only format I would use them in but the Saints are tied for 10th in takeaways and sacks on the season. For all the offensive prowess, the Steelers are seventh in giveaways in part because Ben Roethlisberger is a bit reckless with the ball(yup, I can admit that). He’ll have to drop back at least 40 times in this spot with the Saints offense being back in the dome and that will present added opportunities for sacks and fumbles. Nobody will play the Saints D/ST in a shootout and they could be a massive edge.