Week 14 NFL DFS Value Picks with Adam Strangis

By on


We’re back with another edition of Value Plays for this week’s NFL slate! This column hasn’t been in action for the past couple slates because I was helping Josh Collacchi with the Move The Chains article, which hit on a lot of solid players. If you’d like to hear my thoughts on the slate overall, be sure to give the RotoCurve podcast with myself and Adam Pfeifer a listen sometime this week. Let’s get to work and figure out which values are going to help us pay up for the studs and which values to potentially avoid on this massive slate.

Quarterback

Next game:

Time:

Odds:

QB

Matt Ryan

Atlanta Falcons

Salary: 8,500 6,300
FPPG: 22.11 23.80
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
ATL @ TB Sun, 30 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 8,500 29.82 6,300 33.32
ATL @ CAR Sun, 23 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 8,500 19.46 6,100 20.46
ARI @ ATL Sun, 16 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 8,400 25.04 6,100 25.04
ATL @ GB Sun, 9 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 8,200 21.48 5,600 21.48
BAL @ ATL Sun, 2 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 8,500 7.64 5,600 8.64
ATL @ NO Thu, 22 Nov 2018, 8:20PM ET 8,600 21.68 6,100 25.68
DAL @ ATL Sun, 18 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 8,400 14.74 6,100 14.74
ATL @ CLE Sun, 11 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 8,500 20.50 6,200 24.50
ATL @ WSH Sun, 4 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 8,200 29.00 5,700 32.00
NYG @ ATL Mon, 22 Oct 2018, 8:15PM ET 8,600 19.26 6,500 22.26
Date Team Game Score Comp/Att PaYd PaTD PaInt RuAtt RuYd RuTD FD FPts DK FPts
30 Dec 2018 ATL ATL @ TB 34:32 31/44 378 2 1 4 7 0 29.82 33.32
23 Dec 2018 ATL ATL @ CAR 24:10 15/26 239 3 0 1 -1 0 19.46 20.46
16 Dec 2018 ATL ARI @ ATL 14:40 22/36 231 2 0 3 18 1 25.04 25.04
9 Dec 2018 ATL ATL @ GB 20:34 28/42 262 3 1 1 0 0 21.48 21.48
2 Dec 2018 ATL BAL @ ATL 26:16 16/26 131 1 0 2 4 0 7.64 8.64
22 Nov 2018 ATL ATL @ NO 17:31 35/47 377 2 1 2 16 0 21.68 25.68
18 Nov 2018 ATL DAL @ ATL 22:19 24/34 291 1 1 1 1 0 14.74 14.74
11 Nov 2018 ATL ATL @ CLE 16:28 38/52 330 2 0 3 13 0 20.5 24.5
4 Nov 2018 ATL ATL @ WSH 38:14 26/38 350 4 1 0 0 0 29 32
22 Oct 2018 ATL NYG @ ATL 20:23 31/39 379 1 0 2 1 0 19.26 22.26

You can certainly argue that Rain might be best served as GPP instead of cash, but it’s hard to find a much better value not named Andrew Luck in the sub-$6,000 range at quarterback this week. The Packers have allowed just a shade under 3,000 yards passing already and one of the main reasons that they look like an average matchup is they have given up the 12th fewest touchdown passes in the league. With the exception of last week against the Ravens when they were on the field for just 20:21, the Falcons have attempted at least 34 passes for nine straight weeks. If you give Ryan that many attempts against a defense that is giving up that many yards, he’s finding his way to value for sure. Ryan is eighth in touchdown passes and is only three outside of being in the top five. Even on the road, he’s averaged 21.5 DK points which would be about 4x return.

Also Consider – Baker Mayfield, Josh Allen

 

Running Back

Next game:

Time:

Odds:

RB

Jaylen Samuels

Pittsburgh Steelers

Salary: 6,700 6,800
FPPG: 8.60 6.30
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
CIN @ PIT Sun, 30 Dec 2018, 4:25PM ET 6,700 7.70 6,800 11.20
PIT @ NO Sun, 23 Dec 2018, 4:25PM ET 6,700 13.90 6,700 15.40
NE @ PIT Sun, 16 Dec 2018, 4:25PM ET 5,500 18.20 5,200 22.20
PIT @ OAK Sun, 9 Dec 2018, 4:25PM ET 4,600 12.70 3,700 16.20
LAC @ PIT Sun, 2 Dec 2018, 8:20PM ET 4,600 10.00 3,600 11.50
PIT @ DEN Sun, 25 Nov 2018, 4:25PM ET 4,600 1.70 3,600 2.20
CAR @ PIT Thu, 8 Nov 2018, 8:20PM ET 4,500 10.40 3,000 11.90
PIT @ BAL Sun, 4 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 4,500 0.20 3,000 0.20
CLE @ PIT Sun, 28 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 4,500 1.70 3,000 1.70
Date Team Game Score RuAtt RuYd RuAvg RuTD Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
30 Dec 2018 PIT CIN @ PIT 13:16 2 2 1 0 7 40 5.7 0 7.7 11.2
23 Dec 2018 PIT PIT @ NO 28:31 12 53 4.4 0 3 11 3.7 1 13.9 15.4
16 Dec 2018 PIT NE @ PIT 10:17 19 142 7.5 0 2 30 15 0 18.2 22.2
9 Dec 2018 PIT PIT @ OAK 21:24 11 28 2.5 0 7 64 9.1 0 12.7 16.2
2 Dec 2018 PIT LAC @ PIT 33:30 2 5 2.5 0 3 20 6.7 1 10 11.5
25 Nov 2018 PIT PIT @ DEN 17:24 0 0 0 0 1 12 12 0 1.7 2.2
8 Nov 2018 PIT CAR @ PIT 21:52 5 7 1.4 0 3 22 7.3 1 10.4 11.9
4 Nov 2018 PIT PIT @ BAL 23:16 1 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0.2 0.2
28 Oct 2018 PIT CLE @ PIT 18:33 4 17 4.3 0 0 0 0 0 1.7 1.7

There is a very interesting decision to be made with Samuels. As of this writing, I would expect him to be one of the highest owned players on the slate. He’s part of the fourth highest scoring offense in football and James Conner had a huge workload before he went down. Even with a split with Stevan Ridley, I think Samuels touches the ball around 12-14 times. However, I do think that is the max he gets. There is a very reasonable scenario where Ridley winds up scoring the touchdown and vulturing points from Samuels. In addition, Pittsburgh already leads in passing attempts. The Raiders are giving up the second most rushing yards in football but it’s just the fact that we don’t know what the roles are definitely going to be. I will likely eat the Samuels chalk in cash, but I do think there’s a case to be made in fading him in GPP or playing Ridley as a pivot.

Next game:

Time:

Odds:

RB

Justin Jackson

Los Angeles Chargers

Salary: 4,700 3,800
FPPG: 6.70 4.40
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
LAC @ NE Sun, 13 Jan 2019, 1:05PM ET 4,700 4.10 3,800 5.60
LAC @ BAL Sun, 6 Jan 2019, 1:05PM ET 5,300 0.50 3,800 0.50
LAC @ DEN Sun, 30 Dec 2018, 4:25PM ET 5,300 1.00 4,200 1.00
BAL @ LAC Sat, 22 Dec 2018, 8:20PM ET 5,300 8.10 5,400 11.60
LAC @ KC Thu, 13 Dec 2018, 8:20PM ET 4,500 16.00 4,900 17.50
CIN @ LAC Sun, 9 Dec 2018, 4:05PM ET 4,500 4.50 3,800 5.50
LAC @ PIT Sun, 2 Dec 2018, 8:20PM ET 4,900 14.70 3,600 15.20
ARI @ LAC Sun, 25 Nov 2018, 4:05PM ET 4,500 5.70 3,000 5.70
TEN @ LAC Sun, 21 Oct 2018, 9:30AM ET 4,500 1.90 3,000 2.40
LAC @ CLE Sun, 14 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 4,500 1.70 3,000 2.20
Date Team Game Score RuAtt RuYd RuAvg RuTD Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
13 Jan 2019 LAC LAC @ NE 28:41 1 4 4 0 3 22 7.3 0 4.1 5.6
6 Jan 2019 LAC LAC @ BAL 23:17 2 5 2.5 0 0 0 0 0 0.5 0.5
30 Dec 2018 LAC LAC @ DEN 23:9 6 10 1.7 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
22 Dec 2018 LAC BAL @ LAC 22:10 1 -1 -1 0 7 47 6.7 0 8.1 11.6
13 Dec 2018 LAC LAC @ KC 29:28 16 58 3.6 1 3 27 9 0 16 17.5
9 Dec 2018 LAC CIN @ LAC 21:26 7 12 1.7 0 2 23 11.5 0 4.5 5.5
2 Dec 2018 LAC LAC @ PIT 33:30 8 63 7.9 1 1 19 19 0 14.7 15.2
25 Nov 2018 LAC ARI @ LAC 10:45 7 57 8.1 0 0 0 0 0 5.7 5.7
21 Oct 2018 LAC TEN @ LAC 19:20 2 3 1.5 0 1 11 11 0 1.9 2.4
14 Oct 2018 LAC LAC @ CLE 38:14 3 4 1.3 0 1 8 8 0 1.7 2.2

Among the running backs under $4,000, Jackson is actually my favorite. Anthony Lynn is talking openly about how Austin Ekeler is wearing down and they need to get Jackson more work. I don’t think the chargers let Melvin Gordon play because they still have a game left against the Chiefs that leaves the division and a bye week for the playoffs within play. They should be able to mash the Bengals at home without Gordon, so Jackson could be in line for near 15 rush attempts. He approached 90 total yards on single digit touches against a good run defense last week and the Bengals are dead last in rushing yards per game and have surrendered 16 touches. If you played Phillip Lindsay last week, you know what kind of outcomes are possible.

Also Consider – Jeff Wilson Jr., LeGarrette Blount provided Kerryon Johnson remains out

 

Wide Receiver

Next game:

Time:

Odds:

WR

Adam Humphries

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Salary: 6,300 5,400
FPPG: 9.44 11.80
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
ATL @ TB Sun, 30 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,300 9.10 5,400 11.60
TB @ DAL Sun, 23 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,800 12.90 4,700 17.90
TB @ BAL Sun, 16 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,200 4.30 5,100 6.30
NO @ TB Sun, 9 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,500 6.20 4,900 8.20
CAR @ TB Sun, 2 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,000 15.60 4,200 19.10
SF @ TB Sun, 25 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,600 14.40 4,000 17.40
TB @ NYG Sun, 18 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,500 13.50 3,800 15.00
WSH @ TB Sun, 11 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,700 6.30 3,900 7.30
TB @ CAR Sun, 4 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,200 24.90 3,600 28.90
TB @ CIN Sun, 28 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 4,800 11.10 3,400 14.60
Date Team Game Score Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
30 Dec 2018 TB ATL @ TB 34:32 5 66 13.2 0 9.1 11.6
23 Dec 2018 TB TB @ DAL 20:27 10 79 7.9 0 12.9 17.9
16 Dec 2018 TB TB @ BAL 12:20 4 23 5.8 0 4.3 6.3
9 Dec 2018 TB NO @ TB 28:14 4 42 10.5 0 6.2 8.2
2 Dec 2018 TB CAR @ TB 17:24 7 61 8.7 1 15.6 19.1
25 Nov 2018 TB SF @ TB 9:27 6 54 9 1 14.4 17.4
18 Nov 2018 TB TB @ NYG 35:38 3 60 20 1 13.5 15
11 Nov 2018 TB WSH @ TB 16:3 2 53 26.5 0 6.3 7.3
4 Nov 2018 TB TB @ CAR 28:42 8 82 10.3 2 24.9 28.9
28 Oct 2018 TB TB @ CIN 34:37 7 76 10.9 0 11.1 14.6

I will never talk you out of Chris Godwin because as the other Adam has been saying since before the year started, it is indeed Chris GodwinSZN. However, since Godwin is bound to be popular in a high total game and coming off a big performance of his own last week, take a look at Adam Humphries as well. He gets to run in the slot almost exclusively and that means he’ll see plenty of P.J. Williams. You know, the Williams that gives up a 129.2 passer rating and six touchdowns on 49 total targets. Humphries has cleared double digit DK points in six of his last eight games and Jameis Winston loves him. He’s a direct pivot off of Godwin this week and has the exact same range of outcomes.

Next game:

Time:

Odds:

WR

Bruce Ellington

Detroit Lions

Salary: 4,800 3,000
FPPG: 6.30 8.50
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
DET @ ARI Sun, 9 Dec 2018, 4:25PM ET 4,900 3.70 3,800 5.70
LAR @ DET Sun, 2 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 4,900 7.00 3,500 10.50
CHI @ DET Thu, 22 Nov 2018, 12:30PM ET 5,000 6.00 3,200 9.00
CAR @ DET Sun, 18 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET N/a 8.20 3,000 11.20
NYG @ HOU Sun, 23 Sep 2018, 1:00PM ET 4,600 1.50 3,500 2.00
HOU @ TEN Sun, 16 Sep 2018, 1:00PM ET 4,600 6.00 3,800 7.50
HOU @ NE Sun, 9 Sep 2018, 1:00PM ET 4,600 11.70 3,400 13.70
HOU @ TEN Sun, 3 Dec 2017, 1:00PM ET N/a 1.20 N/a 1.70
HOU @ BAL Mon, 27 Nov 2017, 8:30PM ET N/a 4.40 N/a 5.90
ARI @ HOU Sun, 19 Nov 2017, 1:00PM ET N/a 9.80 N/a 12.80
Date Team Game Score Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
9 Dec 2018 DET DET @ ARI 17:3 4 17 4.3 0 3.7 5.7
2 Dec 2018 DET LAR @ DET 30:16 7 35 5 0 7 10.5
22 Nov 2018 DET CHI @ DET 23:16 6 28 4.7 0 6 9
18 Nov 2018 DET CAR @ DET 19:20 6 52 8.7 0 8.2 11.2
23 Sep 2018 HOU NYG @ HOU 27:22 1 10 10 0 1.5 2
16 Sep 2018 HOU HOU @ TEN 17:20 3 45 15 0 6 7.5
9 Sep 2018 HOU HOU @ NE 20:27 4 37 9.3 1 11.7 13.7
3 Dec 2017 HOU HOU @ TEN 13:24 1 7 7 0 1.2 1.7
27 Nov 2017 HOU HOU @ BAL 16:23 3 29 9.7 0 4.4 5.9
19 Nov 2017 HOU ARI @ HOU 21:31 6 63 10.5 0 9.8 12.8

One of the more interesting ways to leverage the field this week might be to spend up on multiple star running backs and eschew the value plays. If you choose that route, you need more cheap receiver help and Ellington is waiting there with his 9-12 DK points at a very low price point. Since the Lions receivers have been ravaged(pour one out for Marvin Jones, Pfeifer), Ellington has boasted a 25 percent target share in his three games so far. Kenny Golladay faces a stiff challenge in Patrick Peterson on the other side, which could funnel even more work towards Ellington. He’s not a game breaker of any sorts, but he’s the perfect DK receiver and only needs a simple 12 points to hit 3x. His price hasn’t moved enough to make him unplayable.

Also Consider – Micheal Gallup, John Ross (both GPP only), Daesean Hamilton

 

Tight End

Next game:

Time:

Odds:

TE

Ian Thomas

Carolina Panthers

Salary: 5,700 3,300
FPPG: 5.41 4.30
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
CAR @ NO Sun, 30 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,700 14.60 3,300 17.10
ATL @ CAR Sun, 23 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,400 12.80 3,500 14.80
NO @ CAR Mon, 17 Dec 2018, 8:15PM ET 5,400 2.40 3,800 3.40
CAR @ CLE Sun, 9 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 4,900 12.20 2,700 16.70
CAR @ TB Sun, 2 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 4,100 7.10 2,500 9.60
BAL @ CAR Sun, 28 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 4,100 2.00 2,500 2.50
NYG @ CAR Sun, 7 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 4,000 5.30 2,800 6.80
CIN @ CAR Sun, 23 Sep 2018, 1:00PM ET 4,000 3.50 2,800 5.00
CAR @ ATL Sun, 16 Sep 2018, 1:00PM ET 4,000 2.00 2,900 3.00
DAL @ CAR Sun, 9 Sep 2018, 4:25PM ET 4,000 1.40 2,500 2.40
Date Team Game Score Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
30 Dec 2018 CAR CAR @ NO 33:14 5 61 12.2 1 14.6 17.1
23 Dec 2018 CAR ATL @ CAR 24:10 4 48 12 1 12.8 14.8
17 Dec 2018 CAR NO @ CAR 12:9 2 14 7 0 2.4 3.4
9 Dec 2018 CAR CAR @ CLE 20:26 9 77 8.6 0 12.2 16.7
2 Dec 2018 CAR CAR @ TB 17:24 5 46 9.2 0 7.1 9.6
28 Oct 2018 CAR BAL @ CAR 21:36 1 15 15 0 2 2.5
7 Oct 2018 CAR NYG @ CAR 31:33 3 38 12.7 0 5.3 6.8
23 Sep 2018 CAR CIN @ CAR 21:31 3 20 6.7 0 3.5 5
16 Sep 2018 CAR CAR @ ATL 24:31 2 10 5 0 2 3
9 Sep 2018 CAR DAL @ CAR 8:16 2 4 2 0 1.4 2.4

With Greg Olsen being out for the season, the Panthers turned to Ian Thomas last week. He was on the field for over 75 percent of the snaps so they have full confidence in the athletic rookie. At under $3,000, you can do a lot worse than a player who saw five targets in a partial game. The positive snaps correlated with a better performance as Thomas caught all five of his targets for 46 yards. That would be solid on any day, but know Thomas finds himself in a matchup against a Browns defense that has already given up over 70 receptions, 700 yards and six touchdowns to the position. Olsen had a 13.3 percent target share while active and even if Thomas sees most of that, he’s a worthwhile investment.

Also Consider – Rhett Ellison if Evan Engram is out again