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Week 14 NFL DFS Value Picks with Adam Strangis

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We’re back with another edition of Value Plays for this week’s NFL slate! This column hasn’t been in action for the past couple slates because I was helping Josh Collacchi with the Move The Chains article, which hit on a lot of solid players. If you’d like to hear my thoughts on the slate overall, be sure to give the RotoCurve podcast with myself and Adam Pfeifer a listen sometime this week. Let’s get to work and figure out which values are going to help us pay up for the studs and which values to potentially avoid on this massive slate.

Quarterback

Next game:

Time:

Odds:

QB

Matt Ryan

Atlanta Falcons

Salary: 8,100 7,000
FPPG: 18.76 19.00
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
ATL @ TB Sun, 29 Dec 2019, 1:00PM ET 7,800 14.52 6,500 18.52
JAC @ ATL Sun, 22 Dec 2019, 1:00PM ET 7,700 17.96 6,200 20.96
ATL @ SF Sun, 15 Dec 2019, 4:25PM ET 7,600 19.10 5,900 19.10
CAR @ ATL Sun, 8 Dec 2019, 1:00PM ET 7,600 21.32 6,600 24.32
NO @ ATL Thu, 28 Nov 2019, 8:20PM ET 7,700 18.58 6,400 22.58
TB @ ATL Sun, 24 Nov 2019, 1:00PM ET 7,900 8.64 6,700 9.64
ATL @ CAR Sun, 17 Nov 2019, 1:00PM ET 7,600 16.44 6,200 19.44
ATL @ NO Sun, 10 Nov 2019, 1:00PM ET 7,500 15.58 6,100 15.58
LAR @ ATL Sun, 20 Oct 2019, 1:00PM ET 7,900 3.56 6,300 4.56
ATL @ ARI Sun, 13 Oct 2019, 4:05PM ET 8,100 30.94 6,400 33.94
Date Team Game Score Comp/Att PaYd PaTD PaInt RuAtt RuYd RuTD FD FPts DK FPts
29 Dec 2019 ATL ATL @ TB 28:22 30/51 313 1 0 2 0 0 14.52 18.52
22 Dec 2019 ATL JAC @ ATL 12:24 32/45 384 1 2 4 6 0 17.96 20.96
15 Dec 2019 ATL ATL @ SF 29:22 25/39 210 2 0 5 27 0 19.1 19.1
8 Dec 2019 ATL CAR @ ATL 20:40 20/34 313 2 0 1 8 0 21.32 24.32
28 Nov 2019 ATL NO @ ATL 26:18 35/50 312 2 2 3 21 0 18.58 22.58
24 Nov 2019 ATL TB @ ATL 35:22 23/46 271 0 1 1 8 0 8.64 9.64
17 Nov 2019 ATL ATL @ CAR 29:3 21/31 311 1 0 2 0 0 16.44 19.44
10 Nov 2019 ATL ATL @ NO 26:9 20/35 182 2 1 2 13 0 15.58 15.58
20 Oct 2019 ATL LAR @ ATL 37:10 16/27 159 0 1 1 2 0 3.56 4.56
13 Oct 2019 ATL ATL @ ARI 33:34 30/36 356 4 0 2 7 0 30.94 33.94

You can certainly argue that Rain might be best served as GPP instead of cash, but it’s hard to find a much better value not named Andrew Luck in the sub-$6,000 range at quarterback this week. The Packers have allowed just a shade under 3,000 yards passing already and one of the main reasons that they look like an average matchup is they have given up the 12th fewest touchdown passes in the league. With the exception of last week against the Ravens when they were on the field for just 20:21, the Falcons have attempted at least 34 passes for nine straight weeks. If you give Ryan that many attempts against a defense that is giving up that many yards, he’s finding his way to value for sure. Ryan is eighth in touchdown passes and is only three outside of being in the top five. Even on the road, he’s averaged 21.5 DK points which would be about 4x return.

Also Consider – Baker Mayfield, Josh Allen

 

Running Back

Next game:

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Odds:

RB

Jaylen Samuels

Pittsburgh Steelers

Salary: 5,300 3,600
FPPG: 6.65 6.10
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
PIT @ BAL Sun, 29 Dec 2019, 4:25PM ET 5,300 2.10 4,300 2.60
PIT @ NYJ Sun, 22 Dec 2019, 1:00PM ET 5,600 5.90 4,000 7.90
BUF @ PIT Sun, 15 Dec 2019, 8:20PM ET 5,600 0.90 3,900 1.40
PIT @ ARI Sun, 8 Dec 2019, 4:25PM ET 5,500 4.40 5,000 5.40
CLE @ PIT Sun, 1 Dec 2019, 1:00PM ET 5,500 6.40 5,700 7.40
PIT @ CIN Sun, 24 Nov 2019, 1:00PM ET 6,900 4.70 7,200 6.20
PIT @ CLE Thu, 14 Nov 2019, 8:20PM ET 5,900 13.00 6,200 15.50
LAR @ PIT Sun, 10 Nov 2019, 4:25PM ET 6,200 5.50 6,300 7.00
IND @ PIT Sun, 3 Nov 2019, 1:00PM ET 5,000 12.80 4,000 20.30
BAL @ PIT Sun, 6 Oct 2019, 1:00PM ET 5,000 1.96 4,100 3.46
Date Team Game Score RuAtt RuYd RuAvg RuTD Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
29 Dec 2019 PIT PIT @ BAL 10:28 0 0 0 0 1 16 16 0 2.1 2.6
22 Dec 2019 PIT PIT @ NYJ 10:16 3 7 2.3 0 4 32 8 0 5.9 7.9
15 Dec 2019 PIT BUF @ PIT 17:10 2 -1 -0.5 0 1 5 5 0 0.9 1.4
8 Dec 2019 PIT PIT @ ARI 23:17 7 16 2.3 0 2 18 9 0 4.4 5.4
1 Dec 2019 PIT CLE @ PIT 13:20 7 32 4.6 0 2 22 11 0 6.4 7.4
24 Nov 2019 PIT PIT @ CIN 16:10 2 6 3 0 3 26 8.7 0 4.7 6.2
14 Nov 2019 PIT PIT @ CLE 7:21 5 26 5.2 0 5 19 3.8 1 13 15.5
10 Nov 2019 PIT LAR @ PIT 12:17 14 29 2.1 0 3 11 3.7 0 5.5 7
3 Nov 2019 PIT IND @ PIT 24:26 8 10 1.3 0 13 73 5.6 0 12.8 20.3
6 Oct 2019 PIT BAL @ PIT 26:23 3 2 0.7 0 3 11 3.7 0 1.96 3.46

There is a very interesting decision to be made with Samuels. As of this writing, I would expect him to be one of the highest owned players on the slate. He’s part of the fourth highest scoring offense in football and James Conner had a huge workload before he went down. Even with a split with Stevan Ridley, I think Samuels touches the ball around 12-14 times. However, I do think that is the max he gets. There is a very reasonable scenario where Ridley winds up scoring the touchdown and vulturing points from Samuels. In addition, Pittsburgh already leads in passing attempts. The Raiders are giving up the second most rushing yards in football but it’s just the fact that we don’t know what the roles are definitely going to be. I will likely eat the Samuels chalk in cash, but I do think there’s a case to be made in fading him in GPP or playing Ridley as a pivot.

Next game:

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Odds:

RB

Justin Jackson

Los Angeles Chargers

Salary: 4,500 3,000
FPPG: 3.81
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
LAC @ KC Sun, 29 Dec 2019, 1:00PM ET 4,500 1.10 3,000 1.10
MIN @ LAC Sun, 15 Dec 2019, 4:05PM ET 4,500 2.70 3,000 3.70
LAC @ JAC Sun, 8 Dec 2019, 4:05PM ET 4,500 2.50 3,000 2.50
GB @ LAC Sun, 3 Nov 2019, 4:25PM ET 5,000 1.90 3,700 2.40
HOU @ LAC Sun, 22 Sep 2019, 4:25PM ET 5,800 5.00 4,200 7.00
LAC @ DET Sun, 15 Sep 2019, 1:00PM ET 6,100 6.90 4,400 7.40
IND @ LAC Sun, 8 Sep 2019, 4:05PM ET 5,900 6.60 4,000 7.10
LAC @ NE Sun, 13 Jan 2019, 1:05PM ET 4,700 4.10 3,800 5.60
LAC @ BAL Sun, 6 Jan 2019, 1:05PM ET 5,300 0.50 3,800 0.50
LAC @ DEN Sun, 30 Dec 2018, 4:25PM ET 5,300 1.00 4,200 1.00
Date Team Game Score RuAtt RuYd RuAvg RuTD Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
29 Dec 2019 LAC LAC @ KC 21:31 1 11 11 0 0 0 0 0 1.1 1.1
15 Dec 2019 LAC MIN @ LAC 39:10 5 15 3 0 2 2 1 0 2.7 3.7
8 Dec 2019 LAC LAC @ JAC 45:10 3 25 8.3 0 0 0 0 0 2.5 2.5
3 Nov 2019 LAC GB @ LAC 11:26 2 7 3.5 0 1 7 7 0 1.9 2.4
22 Sep 2019 LAC HOU @ LAC 27:20 5 26 5.2 0 4 4 1 0 5 7
15 Sep 2019 LAC LAC @ DET 10:13 7 59 8.4 0 1 5 5 0 6.9 7.4
8 Sep 2019 LAC IND @ LAC 24:30 6 57 9.5 0 1 4 4 0 6.6 7.1
13 Jan 2019 LAC LAC @ NE 28:41 1 4 4 0 3 22 7.3 0 4.1 5.6
6 Jan 2019 LAC LAC @ BAL 23:17 2 5 2.5 0 0 0 0 0 0.5 0.5
30 Dec 2018 LAC LAC @ DEN 23:9 6 10 1.7 0 0 0 0 0 1 1

Among the running backs under $4,000, Jackson is actually my favorite. Anthony Lynn is talking openly about how Austin Ekeler is wearing down and they need to get Jackson more work. I don’t think the chargers let Melvin Gordon play because they still have a game left against the Chiefs that leaves the division and a bye week for the playoffs within play. They should be able to mash the Bengals at home without Gordon, so Jackson could be in line for near 15 rush attempts. He approached 90 total yards on single digit touches against a good run defense last week and the Bengals are dead last in rushing yards per game and have surrendered 16 touches. If you played Phillip Lindsay last week, you know what kind of outcomes are possible.

Also Consider – Jeff Wilson Jr., LeGarrette Blount provided Kerryon Johnson remains out

 

Wide Receiver

Next game:

Time:

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WR

Adam Humphries

Tennessee Titans

Salary: 5,000 3,700
FPPG: 5.67 8.30
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
TEN @ KC Sun, 19 Jan 2020, 3:05PM ET 5,000 4.50 3,000 6.50
TEN @ IND Sun, 1 Dec 2019, 1:00PM ET 5,300 7.80 3,800 8.30
JAC @ TEN Sun, 24 Nov 2019, 4:05PM ET 5,300 3.50 3,900 5.00
KC @ TEN Sun, 10 Nov 2019, 1:00PM ET 5,300 8.80 3,500 9.30
TEN @ CAR Sun, 3 Nov 2019, 1:00PM ET 5,100 8.50 3,800 10.50
TB @ TEN Sun, 27 Oct 2019, 1:00PM ET 5,100 3.90 3,900 5.40
LAC @ TEN Sun, 20 Oct 2019, 4:05PM ET 5,100 6.00 3,400 8.00
TEN @ DEN Sun, 13 Oct 2019, 4:25PM ET 5,000 7.70 3,800 10.70
BUF @ TEN Sun, 6 Oct 2019, 1:00PM ET 5,000 5.00 3,800 7.00
TEN @ ATL Sun, 29 Sep 2019, 1:00PM ET 5,200 2.50 4,000 3.50
Date Team Game Score Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
19 Jan 2020 TEN TEN @ KC 24:35 4 25 6.3 0 4.5 6.5
1 Dec 2019 TEN TEN @ IND 31:17 1 13 13 1 7.8 8.3
24 Nov 2019 TEN JAC @ TEN 20:42 3 20 6.7 0 3.5 5
10 Nov 2019 TEN KC @ TEN 32:35 1 23 23 1 8.8 9.3
3 Nov 2019 TEN TEN @ CAR 20:30 4 65 16.3 0 8.5 10.5
27 Oct 2019 TEN TB @ TEN 23:27 3 24 8 0 3.9 5.4
20 Oct 2019 TEN LAC @ TEN 20:23 4 40 10 0 6 8
13 Oct 2019 TEN TEN @ DEN 0:16 6 47 7.8 0 7.7 10.7
6 Oct 2019 TEN BUF @ TEN 14:7 4 30 7.5 0 5 7
29 Sep 2019 TEN TEN @ ATL 24:10 2 15 7.5 0 2.5 3.5

I will never talk you out of Chris Godwin because as the other Adam has been saying since before the year started, it is indeed Chris GodwinSZN. However, since Godwin is bound to be popular in a high total game and coming off a big performance of his own last week, take a look at Adam Humphries as well. He gets to run in the slot almost exclusively and that means he’ll see plenty of P.J. Williams. You know, the Williams that gives up a 129.2 passer rating and six touchdowns on 49 total targets. Humphries has cleared double digit DK points in six of his last eight games and Jameis Winston loves him. He’s a direct pivot off of Godwin this week and has the exact same range of outcomes.

Next game:

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Odds:

WR

Bruce Ellington

Salary: 4,500 3,000
FPPG: 6.30 8.50
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
DET @ ARI Sun, 9 Dec 2018, 4:25PM ET 4,900 3.70 3,800 5.70
LAR @ DET Sun, 2 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 4,900 7.00 3,500 10.50
CHI @ DET Thu, 22 Nov 2018, 12:30PM ET 5,000 6.00 3,200 9.00
CAR @ DET Sun, 18 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET N/a 8.20 3,000 11.20
NYG @ HOU Sun, 23 Sep 2018, 1:00PM ET 4,600 1.50 3,500 2.00
HOU @ TEN Sun, 16 Sep 2018, 1:00PM ET 4,600 6.00 3,800 7.50
HOU @ NE Sun, 9 Sep 2018, 1:00PM ET 4,600 11.70 3,400 13.70
HOU @ TEN Sun, 3 Dec 2017, 1:00PM ET N/a 1.20 N/a 1.70
HOU @ BAL Mon, 27 Nov 2017, 8:30PM ET N/a 4.40 N/a 5.90
ARI @ HOU Sun, 19 Nov 2017, 1:00PM ET N/a 9.80 N/a 12.80
Date Team Game Score Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
9 Dec 2018 DET DET @ ARI 17:3 4 17 4.3 0 3.7 5.7
2 Dec 2018 DET LAR @ DET 30:16 7 35 5 0 7 10.5
22 Nov 2018 DET CHI @ DET 23:16 6 28 4.7 0 6 9
18 Nov 2018 DET CAR @ DET 19:20 6 52 8.7 0 8.2 11.2
23 Sep 2018 HOU NYG @ HOU 27:22 1 10 10 0 1.5 2
16 Sep 2018 HOU HOU @ TEN 17:20 3 45 15 0 6 7.5
9 Sep 2018 HOU HOU @ NE 20:27 4 37 9.3 1 11.7 13.7
3 Dec 2017 HOU HOU @ TEN 13:24 1 7 7 0 1.2 1.7
27 Nov 2017 HOU HOU @ BAL 16:23 3 29 9.7 0 4.4 5.9
19 Nov 2017 HOU ARI @ HOU 21:31 6 63 10.5 0 9.8 12.8

One of the more interesting ways to leverage the field this week might be to spend up on multiple star running backs and eschew the value plays. If you choose that route, you need more cheap receiver help and Ellington is waiting there with his 9-12 DK points at a very low price point. Since the Lions receivers have been ravaged(pour one out for Marvin Jones, Pfeifer), Ellington has boasted a 25 percent target share in his three games so far. Kenny Golladay faces a stiff challenge in Patrick Peterson on the other side, which could funnel even more work towards Ellington. He’s not a game breaker of any sorts, but he’s the perfect DK receiver and only needs a simple 12 points to hit 3x. His price hasn’t moved enough to make him unplayable.

Also Consider – Micheal Gallup, John Ross (both GPP only), Daesean Hamilton

 

Tight End

Next game:

Time:

Odds:

TE

Ian Thomas

Carolina Panthers

Salary: 4,000 2,500
FPPG: 3.07 1.90
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
NO @ CAR Sun, 29 Dec 2019, 1:00PM ET 4,900 1.70 2,800 2.20
CAR @ IND Sun, 22 Dec 2019, 1:00PM ET 5,100 3.10 3,100 4.60
SEA @ CAR Sun, 15 Dec 2019, 1:00PM ET 5,300 3.30 3,100 4.30
CAR @ ATL Sun, 8 Dec 2019, 1:00PM ET 4,000 14.20 2,500 16.70
WSH @ CAR Sun, 1 Dec 2019, 1:00PM ET 4,000 4.40 2,500 6.40
CAR @ NO Sun, 24 Nov 2019, 1:00PM ET 4,000 0.90 2,500 1.40
ATL @ CAR Sun, 17 Nov 2019, 1:00PM ET 4,000 0 2,500 0
LAR @ CAR Sun, 8 Sep 2019, 1:00PM ET 4,600 0 2,800 0
CAR @ NO Sun, 30 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,700 14.60 3,300 17.10
ATL @ CAR Sun, 23 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,400 12.80 3,500 14.80
Date Team Game Score Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
29 Dec 2019 CAR NO @ CAR 42:10 1 12 12 0 1.7 2.2
22 Dec 2019 CAR CAR @ IND 6:38 3 16 5.3 0 3.1 4.6
15 Dec 2019 CAR SEA @ CAR 30:24 2 23 11.5 0 3.3 4.3
8 Dec 2019 CAR CAR @ ATL 20:40 5 57 11.4 1 14.2 16.7
1 Dec 2019 CAR WSH @ CAR 29:21 4 24 6 0 4.4 6.4
24 Nov 2019 CAR CAR @ NO 31:34 1 4 4 0 0.9 1.4
17 Nov 2019 CAR ATL @ CAR 29:3 0 0 0 0 0 0
8 Sep 2019 CAR LAR @ CAR 30:27 0 0 0 0 0 0
30 Dec 2018 CAR CAR @ NO 33:14 5 61 12.2 1 14.6 17.1
23 Dec 2018 CAR ATL @ CAR 24:10 4 48 12 1 12.8 14.8

With Greg Olsen being out for the season, the Panthers turned to Ian Thomas last week. He was on the field for over 75 percent of the snaps so they have full confidence in the athletic rookie. At under $3,000, you can do a lot worse than a player who saw five targets in a partial game. The positive snaps correlated with a better performance as Thomas caught all five of his targets for 46 yards. That would be solid on any day, but know Thomas finds himself in a matchup against a Browns defense that has already given up over 70 receptions, 700 yards and six touchdowns to the position. Olsen had a 13.3 percent target share while active and even if Thomas sees most of that, he’s a worthwhile investment.

Also Consider – Rhett Ellison if Evan Engram is out again