Week 11 NFL DFS Value Picks with Adam Strangis

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Welcome into the Week 11 edition of Value Plays here at RotoCurve! This slate looks like an absolute blast to play and there are players everywhere that I love. Make sure you check out the RotoCurve podcast with myself and Adam Pfeifer for the complete breakdown of this week’s game but I’m here to highlight some of my favorite plays of the week. That happens right after we check our results from last week.

QB, Marcus Mariota – 22.32 DK Points – Well over 4x value

RB, Duke Johnson – 12.6 DK Points – Not what I was expecting in a dream spot but he certainly didn’t kill you

RB, Aaron Jones – 30.70 DK Points – My only regret was I didn’t use nearly enough of Jones 

WR, Larry Fitzgerald – 11.0 DK Points – See Johnson, Duke 

WR, Maurice Harris – 10.6 DK Points – I didn’t like this play but talked myself into it because I assumed he would be chalk

TE, Ben Watson – 0.60 DK Points – The refs stole a TD from my man, which was all I was hoping for in the first place

It was a very solid week last week and it was likely spectacular if you landed on Aaron Jones. Let’s look to keep the #buckies flowing this week!

 

Next game:

NE @ PIT

Time:

Sun, 16th Dec, 04:25PM ET

Odds:

PIT +2.5 / O/U 52.0

QB

Ben Roethlisberger

Pittsburgh Steelers

Salary: 8,600 6,600
FPPG: 22.91 24.70
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
PIT @ OAK Sun, 9 Dec 2018, 4:25PM ET 8,600 19.28 6,800 19.28
LAC @ PIT Sun, 2 Dec 2018, 8:20PM ET 7,900 18.24 6,000 18.24
PIT @ DEN Sun, 25 Nov 2018, 4:25PM ET 7,900 22.28 6,100 25.28
PIT @ JAC Sun, 18 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 8,000 23.66 5,800 26.66
CAR @ PIT Thu, 8 Nov 2018, 8:20PM ET 7,800 35.82 6,300 38.82
PIT @ BAL Sun, 4 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 7,800 25.20 5,700 25.20
CLE @ PIT Sun, 28 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 8,400 17.88 6,100 17.88
PIT @ CIN Sun, 14 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 8,500 21.06 6,500 24.56
ATL @ PIT Sun, 7 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 8,400 22.60 6,900 22.60
BAL @ PIT Sun, 30 Sep 2018, 8:20PM ET 8,000 15.86 6,000 15.86
Season Team PaYd/G PaTD Pa QB Rating PaYd/Pa Avg
2018 PIT 315.6 28 97.4 7.7
2017 PIT 274.1 28 93.4 7.6
Date Team Game Score Comp/Att PaYd PaTD PaInt RuAtt RuYd RuTD FD FPts DK FPts
9 Dec 2018 PIT PIT @ OAK 21:24 25/29 282 2 0 0 0 0 19.28 19.28
2 Dec 2018 PIT LAC @ PIT 33:30 29/45 281 2 1 0 0 0 18.24 18.24
25 Nov 2018 PIT PIT @ DEN 17:24 41/56 462 1 2 2 18 0 22.28 25.28
18 Nov 2018 PIT PIT @ JAC 20:16 27/47 314 2 3 2 1 1 23.66 26.66
8 Nov 2018 PIT CAR @ PIT 21:52 22/25 328 5 0 3 27 0 35.82 38.82
4 Nov 2018 PIT PIT @ BAL 23:16 28/47 270 2 0 2 4 1 25.2 25.2
28 Oct 2018 PIT CLE @ PIT 18:33 24/36 257 2 1 2 6 0 17.88 17.88
14 Oct 2018 PIT PIT @ CIN 28:21 32/46 369 1 0 1 -1 0 21.06 24.56
7 Oct 2018 PIT ATL @ PIT 17:41 19/29 250 3 1 2 16 0 22.6 22.6
30 Sep 2018 PIT BAL @ PIT 26:14 27/47 274 1 1 1 -1 0 15.86 15.86

I’m usually one to write up players to use in cash lineups but there is a plethora of options at quarterback this week that Josh Collacchi will touch on in Move the Chains. Instead, I’m going after my favorite GPP quarterback this week in Ben Roethlisberger. No, it’s not just my Steelers fandom speaking(even though that team is the G.O.A.T). Big Ben seems like he’s in a terrible spot and I doubt many people play him this week. I think there’s a reasonable chance he has a pretty good game, despite being on the road and in a tough matchup. So far away from home, Roethlisberger has a floor of 17 DK points and has scored as much as 28 against Tampa Bay. Last year against the Jaguars, he passed for 312 and 469 yards with five touchdowns and six interceptions. Five of those picks came in the first game and he scorched them the second time he saw them. Roethlisberger hasn’t suffered on the road this season and the Jags have given up 570 yards and six touchdowns in their last two games. Large Benjamin is on track for over 5,100 passing yards and over 37 touchdown passes. I’m not scared and in GPP’s, you shouldn’t be either.

Note – David Johnson and James Conner don’t qualify as values from a salary standpoint. Both players are building blocks for me because they are supreme values compared to other high end running backs. Conner is Le’Veon Bell for fantasy production and Johnson is actually being used once again. 

 

Next game:

TB @ BAL

Time:

Sun, 16th Dec, 01:00PM ET

Odds:

BAL -7.5 / O/U 46.5

RB

Alex Collins

Baltimore Ravens

Salary: 5,500 3,900
FPPG: 10.11 11.20
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
CIN @ BAL Sun, 18 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,000 7.80 4,400 7.80
PIT @ BAL Sun, 4 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,200 10.40 4,600 10.90
BAL @ CAR Sun, 28 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,100 11.30 4,600 13.30
NO @ BAL Sun, 21 Oct 2018, 4:05PM ET 6,400 6.30 4,800 7.80
BAL @ TEN Sun, 14 Oct 2018, 4:25PM ET 6,200 17.40 4,600 17.40
BAL @ CLE Sun, 7 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,500 7.10 5,000 7.60
BAL @ PIT Sun, 30 Sep 2018, 8:20PM ET 6,500 9.00 5,100 10.50
DEN @ BAL Sun, 23 Sep 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,300 14.90 5,200 16.40
BAL @ CIN Thu, 13 Sep 2018, 8:20PM ET 6,000 10.50 5,800 12.00
BUF @ BAL Sun, 9 Sep 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,700 6.40 5,600 7.90
Season Team RuAtt RuYd/G RuTD RuYd/R Avg RecR RecTa RecYd/G RecTD
2018 BAL 114 41.1 7 3.6 15 21 10.5 1
2017 BAL 212 64.9 6 4.6 23 36 12.5 0
Date Team Game Score RuAtt RuYd RuAvg RuTD Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
18 Nov 2018 BAL CIN @ BAL 21:24 7 18 2.6 1 0 0 0 0 7.8 7.8
4 Nov 2018 BAL PIT @ BAL 23:16 9 35 3.9 1 1 4 4 0 10.4 10.9
28 Oct 2018 BAL BAL @ CAR 21:36 11 49 4.5 1 2 14 7 0 11.3 13.3
21 Oct 2018 BAL NO @ BAL 24:23 11 38 3.5 0 3 10 3.3 0 6.3 7.8
14 Oct 2018 BAL BAL @ TEN 21:0 19 54 2.8 2 0 0 0 0 17.4 17.4
7 Oct 2018 BAL BAL @ CLE 9:12 12 59 4.9 0 1 7 7 0 7.1 7.6
30 Sep 2018 BAL BAL @ PIT 26:14 11 42 3.8 0 1 3 3 1 9 10.5
23 Sep 2018 BAL DEN @ BAL 14:27 18 68 3.8 1 3 6 2 0 14.9 16.4
13 Sep 2018 BAL BAL @ CIN 23:34 9 35 3.9 0 3 55 18.3 0 10.5 12
9 Sep 2018 BAL BUF @ BAL 3:47 7 13 1.9 1 1 6 6 0 6.4 7.9

There’s a lot of debate over which quarterback is going to start for the Ravens this Sunday but one thing is for sure – Collins is in a wonderful spot at his lowest price point of the season. His total carries may be a little concerning over the past three games but let’s look closer. The Saints game was competitive but the Saints have the best rushing defense in the NFL. Then he went to Carolina and got destroyed, rendering the game script totally away from him. The week before the bye, they were chasing the Steelers all game long. I have a hard time buying the Cincinnati offense can put a ton of points on this Ravens defense, meaning Collins should get at least 15 touches. If he does, he should be able to hammer his price against the rushing defense that allows the second most yards in football. Collins has also taken the red zone away from Buck Allen the past two games, out-chancing him 6-2. If there’s a running quarterback in Robert Griffin or Lamar Jackson in the lineup, all the better for Collins.

 

Next game:

TEN @ NYG

Time:

Sun, 16th Dec, 01:00PM ET

Odds:

TEN +2.5 / O/U 43.5

RB

Dion Lewis

Tennessee Titans

Salary: 5,400 4,600
FPPG: 9.04 11.00
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
JAC @ TEN Thu, 6 Dec 2018, 8:20PM ET 5,500 7.70 4,400 10.20
NYJ @ TEN Sun, 2 Dec 2018, 4:05PM ET 5,500 4.40 5,300 5.40
TEN @ HOU Mon, 26 Nov 2018, 8:15PM ET 5,600 7.60 4,800 11.10
TEN @ IND Sun, 18 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,900 3.70 4,800 4.20
NE @ TEN Sun, 11 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,800 7.80 4,600 8.80
TEN @ DAL Mon, 5 Nov 2018, 8:15PM ET 5,800 20.20 4,700 22.20
TEN @ LAC Sun, 21 Oct 2018, 9:30AM ET 5,500 18.50 4,400 21.50
BAL @ TEN Sun, 14 Oct 2018, 4:25PM ET 5,500 2.40 4,700 3.40
TEN @ BUF Sun, 7 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,700 4.30 5,400 6.80
PHI @ TEN Sun, 30 Sep 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,700 11.10 4,400 15.60
Season Team RuAtt RuYd/G RuTD RuYd/R Avg RecR RecTa RecYd/G RecTD
2018 TEN 145 36.7 1 3.3 50 56 26.8 1
2017 NE 180 56 6 5 32 36 13.4 3
Date Team Game Score RuAtt RuYd RuAvg RuTD Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
6 Dec 2018 TEN JAC @ TEN 9:30 10 13 1.3 0 5 39 7.8 0 7.7 10.2
2 Dec 2018 TEN NYJ @ TEN 22:26 6 36 6 0 2 -2 -1 0 4.4 5.4
26 Nov 2018 TEN TEN @ HOU 17:34 7 8 1.1 0 7 33 4.7 0 7.6 11.1
18 Nov 2018 TEN TEN @ IND 10:38 10 24 2.4 0 1 8 8 0 3.7 4.2
11 Nov 2018 TEN NE @ TEN 10:34 20 57 2.8 0 2 11 5.5 0 7.8 8.8
5 Nov 2018 TEN TEN @ DAL 28:14 19 62 3.3 0 4 60 15 1 20.2 22.2
21 Oct 2018 TEN TEN @ LAC 19:20 13 91 7 0 6 64 10.7 0 18.5 21.5
14 Oct 2018 TEN BAL @ TEN 21:0 5 9 1.8 0 2 5 2.5 0 2.4 3.4
7 Oct 2018 TEN TEN @ BUF 12:13 12 34 2.8 0 3 14 4.7 0 4.3 6.8
30 Sep 2018 TEN PHI @ TEN 23:26 4 0 0 0 9 66 7.3 0 11.1 15.6

Many will look at the mediocre game from Lewis this week and pass him over right away. Even more might look at the Colts giving up 3.9 yards a rush and just seven rushing touchdowns and be totally uninterested. After all, they just shut down Leonard Fournette on the ground. So why pay for Lewis? For one, anything under $5,000 with the ability to touch the ball 20+ times is too cheap. Where Lewis might really make his money this week is through the passing game. Indy has given up the third most receptions and the fourth most yards to running backs so far this season and Lewis has a 16 percent target share in the Titans offense. They really don’t have a reliable pass catcher past Corey Davis and I would fully expect Tennessee to use Lewis in the passing game to take advantage of this mismatch.

 

Next game:

DAL @ IND

Time:

Sun, 16th Dec, 01:00PM ET

Odds:

DAL +3.0 / O/U 47.0

WR

Amari Cooper

Dallas Cowboys

Salary: 6,600 7,500
FPPG: 13.68 17.30
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
PHI @ DAL Sun, 9 Dec 2018, 4:25PM ET 6,900 44.70 6,600 52.70
NO @ DAL Thu, 29 Nov 2018, 8:20PM ET 6,900 9.50 6,200 14.50
WSH @ DAL Thu, 22 Nov 2018, 4:30PM ET 6,500 34.00 5,700 41.00
DAL @ ATL Sun, 18 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,600 5.10 5,400 6.60
DAL @ PHI Sun, 11 Nov 2018, 8:20PM ET 6,500 10.50 5,000 13.50
TEN @ DAL Mon, 5 Nov 2018, 8:15PM ET 6,400 14.30 4,600 16.80
SEA @ OAK Sun, 14 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,400 0 5,200 0
OAK @ LAC Sun, 7 Oct 2018, 4:05PM ET 6,500 1.50 5,500 2.00
CLE @ OAK Sun, 30 Sep 2018, 4:05PM ET 6,600 22.80 5,600 29.80
OAK @ MIA Sun, 23 Sep 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,900 2.70 6,600 3.70
Season Team ReR ReTa ReYd ReYd/G ReTD Yd/Ta
2018 OAK 22 31 280 46.7 1 9.03
2018 DAL 40 53 642 107 6 12.11
2017 OAK 48 96 680 48.6 7 7.08
Date Team Game Score Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
9 Dec 2018 DAL PHI @ DAL 23:29 10 217 21.7 3 44.7 52.7
29 Nov 2018 DAL NO @ DAL 10:13 8 75 9.4 0 9.5 14.5
22 Nov 2018 DAL WSH @ DAL 23:31 8 180 22.5 2 34 41
18 Nov 2018 DAL DAL @ ATL 22:19 3 36 12 0 5.1 6.6
11 Nov 2018 DAL DAL @ PHI 27:20 6 75 12.5 0 10.5 13.5
5 Nov 2018 DAL TEN @ DAL 28:14 5 58 11.6 1 14.3 16.8
14 Oct 2018 OAK SEA @ OAK 27:3 0 0 0 0 0 0
7 Oct 2018 OAK OAK @ LAC 10:26 1 10 10 0 1.5 2
30 Sep 2018 OAK CLE @ OAK 42:45 8 128 16 1 22.8 29.8
23 Sep 2018 OAK OAK @ MIA 20:28 2 17 8.5 0 2.7 3.7

I’ll be the first one to tell you that I’ve used Cooper as the butt of some jokes in the very recent past when he was a Raider. Really, who among us hasn’t made fun of that entire organization? However, Cooper has always had the good as far as being a receiver at the NFL level goes. He can run routes with just about anyone and is now getting consistent targets through his first two games. Since he’s arrived in Dallas, he’s gotten a 28.7 market share of the targets. If he had that many through the entire season, he’d be eighth in the league, ahead of players like Michael Thomas, Keenan Allen and Antonio Brown. What’s even better is he’s already seen six red zone targets. We all figured he would be the lead dog in Dallas but it’s absolutely coming to fruition. The Falcons have allowed the third most passing yards and a whopping 21 touchdowns so far this season. Cooper is at least $1,000 too cheap.

 

Next game:

TEN @ NYG

Time:

Sun, 16th Dec, 01:00PM ET

Odds:

NYG -2.5 / O/U 43.5

WR

Sterling Shepard

NY Giants

Salary: 5,200 4,400
FPPG: 9.32 11.60
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
NYG @ WSH Sun, 9 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,200 8.70 4,400 9.70
CHI @ NYG Sun, 2 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,400 4.80 4,600 6.80
NYG @ PHI Sun, 25 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,000 5.70 5,300 7.70
TB @ NYG Sun, 18 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,300 3.20 5,300 4.20
NYG @ SF Mon, 12 Nov 2018, 8:15PM ET 6,400 10.60 4,900 11.60
WSH @ NYG Sun, 28 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,500 5.40 5,200 7.40
NYG @ ATL Mon, 22 Oct 2018, 8:15PM ET 6,300 19.20 5,400 24.70
PHI @ NYG Thu, 11 Oct 2018, 8:20PM ET 6,300 5.20 5,700 6.70
NYG @ CAR Sun, 7 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,200 9.50 5,600 11.50
NO @ NYG Sun, 30 Sep 2018, 4:25PM ET 6,200 20.70 4,900 25.70
Season Team ReR ReTa ReYd ReYd/G ReTD Yd/Ta
2018 NYG 54 82 655 50.4 4 7.99
2017 NYG 59 84 731 66.5 2 8.70
Date Team Game Score Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
9 Dec 2018 NYG NYG @ WSH 40:16 2 17 8.5 1 8.7 9.7
2 Dec 2018 NYG CHI @ NYG 27:30 4 28 7 0 4.8 6.8
25 Nov 2018 NYG NYG @ PHI 22:25 4 37 9.3 0 5.7 7.7
18 Nov 2018 NYG TB @ NYG 35:38 2 22 11 0 3.2 4.2
12 Nov 2018 NYG NYG @ SF 27:23 2 9 4.5 1 10.6 11.6
28 Oct 2018 NYG WSH @ NYG 20:13 4 34 8.5 0 5.4 7.4
22 Oct 2018 NYG NYG @ ATL 20:23 5 167 33.4 0 19.2 24.7
11 Oct 2018 NYG PHI @ NYG 34:13 3 37 12.3 0 5.2 6.7
7 Oct 2018 NYG NYG @ CAR 31:33 4 75 18.8 0 9.5 11.5
30 Sep 2018 NYG NO @ NYG 33:18 10 77 7.7 1 20.7 25.7

I know, it’s the second player that myself and Adam have agreed on. The bottom line is to get you guys the best plays and I believe Adam says it best on Shepard –

Shepard is coming off a season-low three targets, which is definitely underwhelming. But he did find the end zone late in this game and this spot against Tampa Bay is one where I am simply not afraid to chase some points. Shepard runs just over 69 percent of his routes from the slot, while the Bucs are allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to slot receivers, while no team has allowed more touchdowns to that part of the field with 10. The Giants are certainly not the greatest offense in the league but this Bucs defense will give it up to anyone, surrendering the second-most points per drive in the NFL at 2.76.

 

Next game:

ARI @ ATL

Time:

Sun, 16th Dec, 01:00PM ET

Odds:

ARI +8.5 / O/U 44.0

TE

Ricky SealsJones

Arizona Cardinals

Salary: 4,900 2,600
FPPG: 4.06 5.20
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
DET @ ARI Sun, 9 Dec 2018, 4:25PM ET 4,900 4.60 2,700 6.10
ARI @ GB Sun, 2 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,200 1.50 2,900 2.00
ARI @ LAC Sun, 25 Nov 2018, 4:05PM ET 5,200 1.00 3,100 1.50
OAK @ ARI Sun, 18 Nov 2018, 4:05PM ET 5,200 1.00 2,900 1.50
ARI @ KC Sun, 11 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,000 7.60 3,000 10.10
SF @ ARI Sun, 28 Oct 2018, 4:25PM ET 5,000 2.20 3,000 3.20
DEN @ ARI Thu, 18 Oct 2018, 8:20PM ET 5,300 2.20 3,300 3.20
ARI @ MIN Sun, 14 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,000 9.40 2,700 11.90
SEA @ ARI Sun, 30 Sep 2018, 4:05PM ET 5,300 6.20 2,900 7.20
CHI @ ARI Sun, 23 Sep 2018, 4:25PM ET 5,100 10.00 2,800 10.50
Season Team ReR ReTa ReYd ReYd/G ReTD Yd/Ta
2018 ARI 30 60 318 24.5 1 5.30
2017 ARI 12 28 201 20.1 3 7.18
Date Team Game Score Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
9 Dec 2018 ARI DET @ ARI 17:3 3 31 10.3 0 4.6 6.1
2 Dec 2018 ARI ARI @ GB 20:17 1 10 10 0 1.5 2
25 Nov 2018 ARI ARI @ LAC 10:45 1 5 5 0 1 1.5
18 Nov 2018 ARI OAK @ ARI 23:21 1 5 5 0 1 1.5
11 Nov 2018 ARI ARI @ KC 14:26 5 51 10.2 0 7.6 10.1
28 Oct 2018 ARI SF @ ARI 15:18 2 12 6 0 2.2 3.2
18 Oct 2018 ARI DEN @ ARI 45:10 2 12 6 0 2.2 3.2
14 Oct 2018 ARI ARI @ MIN 17:27 5 69 13.8 0 9.4 11.9
30 Sep 2018 ARI SEA @ ARI 20:17 2 52 26 0 6.2 7.2
23 Sep 2018 ARI CHI @ ARI 16:14 1 35 35 1 10 10.5

For full disclosure, I have a very strong desire to use Zach Ertz on this slate. He’s leaps and bounds the best tight end option but a lot of folks are going to want to jam in as many high priced running backs as they can. If you go that route, look at Seals-Jones for some salary relief. He’s seen 13 total targets under new coordinator Byron Leftwich and just so happens to play one of the worst defenses in football. The Raiders are allowing almost 70 yards a game to tight ends and have already surrendered six touchdowns to the position. That’s likely much better than it could be because they’ve already played the Rams, Dolphins, Chargers twice, Broncos and Seahawks. Six games against teams that don’t utilize tight ends very much in the passing game and you’ve given up those gaudy numbers? If Seals-Jones sees the targets he has recently, he could have some serious upside in addition to being a very solid punt.