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Week 11 NFL DFS Value Picks with Adam Strangis

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Welcome into the Week 11 edition of Value Plays here at RotoCurve! This slate looks like an absolute blast to play and there are players everywhere that I love. Make sure you check out the RotoCurve podcast with myself and Adam Pfeifer for the complete breakdown of this week’s game but I’m here to highlight some of my favorite plays of the week. That happens right after we check our results from last week.

QB, Marcus Mariota – 22.32 DK Points – Well over 4x value

RB, Duke Johnson – 12.6 DK Points – Not what I was expecting in a dream spot but he certainly didn’t kill you

RB, Aaron Jones – 30.70 DK Points – My only regret was I didn’t use nearly enough of Jones 

WR, Larry Fitzgerald – 11.0 DK Points – See Johnson, Duke 

WR, Maurice Harris – 10.6 DK Points – I didn’t like this play but talked myself into it because I assumed he would be chalk

TE, Ben Watson – 0.60 DK Points – The refs stole a TD from my man, which was all I was hoping for in the first place

It was a very solid week last week and it was likely spectacular if you landed on Aaron Jones. Let’s look to keep the #buckies flowing this week!

 

Next game:

MIA @ PIT

Time:

Mon, 28th Oct, 08:15PM ET

Odds:

PIT -14.5 / O/U 43.0

QB

Ben Roethlisberger

Pittsburgh Steelers

Salary: 6,000 4,000
FPPG: 6.87 6.90
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
SEA @ PIT Sun, 15 Sep 2019, 1:00PM ET 7,600 3.00 5,800 3.00
PIT @ NE Sun, 8 Sep 2019, 8:20PM ET 7,600 10.74 6,300 10.74
CIN @ PIT Sun, 30 Dec 2018, 4:25PM ET 8,700 14.78 7,000 14.78
PIT @ NO Sun, 23 Dec 2018, 4:25PM ET 8,700 29.60 6,700 32.60
NE @ PIT Sun, 16 Dec 2018, 4:25PM ET 8,600 15.10 6,600 15.10
PIT @ OAK Sun, 9 Dec 2018, 4:25PM ET 8,600 19.28 6,800 19.28
LAC @ PIT Sun, 2 Dec 2018, 8:20PM ET 7,900 18.24 6,000 18.24
PIT @ DEN Sun, 25 Nov 2018, 4:25PM ET 7,900 22.28 6,100 25.28
PIT @ JAC Sun, 18 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 8,000 23.66 5,800 26.66
CAR @ PIT Thu, 8 Nov 2018, 8:20PM ET 7,800 35.82 6,300 38.82
Season Team PaYd/G PaTD Pa QB Rating PaYd/Pa Avg
2019 PIT 179 0 66 5.7
2018 PIT 326.6 34 96.5 7.6
Date Team Game Score Comp/Att PaYd PaTD PaInt RuAtt RuYd RuTD FD FPts DK FPts
15 Sep 2019 PIT SEA @ PIT 28:26 8/15 75 0 0 0 0 0 3 3
8 Sep 2019 PIT PIT @ NE 3:33 27/47 276 0 1 1 7 0 10.74 10.74
30 Dec 2018 PIT CIN @ PIT 13:16 31/45 287 1 1 3 3 0 14.78 14.78
23 Dec 2018 PIT PIT @ NO 28:31 33/50 380 3 0 2 4 0 29.6 32.6
16 Dec 2018 PIT NE @ PIT 10:17 22/34 235 2 2 2 -3 0 15.1 15.1
9 Dec 2018 PIT PIT @ OAK 21:24 25/29 282 2 0 0 0 0 19.28 19.28
2 Dec 2018 PIT LAC @ PIT 33:30 29/45 281 2 1 0 0 0 18.24 18.24
25 Nov 2018 PIT PIT @ DEN 17:24 41/56 462 1 2 2 18 0 22.28 25.28
18 Nov 2018 PIT PIT @ JAC 20:16 27/47 314 2 3 2 1 1 23.66 26.66
8 Nov 2018 PIT CAR @ PIT 21:52 22/25 328 5 0 3 27 0 35.82 38.82

I’m usually one to write up players to use in cash lineups but there is a plethora of options at quarterback this week that Josh Collacchi will touch on in Move the Chains. Instead, I’m going after my favorite GPP quarterback this week in Ben Roethlisberger. No, it’s not just my Steelers fandom speaking(even though that team is the G.O.A.T). Big Ben seems like he’s in a terrible spot and I doubt many people play him this week. I think there’s a reasonable chance he has a pretty good game, despite being on the road and in a tough matchup. So far away from home, Roethlisberger has a floor of 17 DK points and has scored as much as 28 against Tampa Bay. Last year against the Jaguars, he passed for 312 and 469 yards with five touchdowns and six interceptions. Five of those picks came in the first game and he scorched them the second time he saw them. Roethlisberger hasn’t suffered on the road this season and the Jags have given up 570 yards and six touchdowns in their last two games. Large Benjamin is on track for over 5,100 passing yards and over 37 touchdown passes. I’m not scared and in GPP’s, you shouldn’t be either.

Note – David Johnson and James Conner don’t qualify as values from a salary standpoint. Both players are building blocks for me because they are supreme values compared to other high end running backs. Conner is Le’Veon Bell for fantasy production and Johnson is actually being used once again. 

 

Next game:

Time:

Odds:

RB

Alex Collins

Salary: 5,500 3,900
FPPG: 10.11 11.20
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
CIN @ BAL Sun, 18 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,000 7.80 4,400 7.80
PIT @ BAL Sun, 4 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,200 10.40 4,600 10.90
BAL @ CAR Sun, 28 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,100 11.30 4,600 13.30
NO @ BAL Sun, 21 Oct 2018, 4:05PM ET 6,400 6.30 4,800 7.80
BAL @ TEN Sun, 14 Oct 2018, 4:25PM ET 6,200 17.40 4,600 17.40
BAL @ CLE Sun, 7 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,500 7.10 5,000 7.60
BAL @ PIT Sun, 30 Sep 2018, 8:20PM ET 6,500 9.00 5,100 10.50
DEN @ BAL Sun, 23 Sep 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,300 14.90 5,200 16.40
BAL @ CIN Thu, 13 Sep 2018, 8:20PM ET 6,000 10.50 5,800 12.00
BUF @ BAL Sun, 9 Sep 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,700 6.40 5,600 7.90
Season Team RuAtt RuYd/G RuTD RuYd/R Avg RecR RecTa RecYd/G RecTD
2018 BAL 114 41.1 7 3.6 15 21 10.5 1
Date Team Game Score RuAtt RuYd RuAvg RuTD Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
18 Nov 2018 BAL CIN @ BAL 21:24 7 18 2.6 1 0 0 0 0 7.8 7.8
4 Nov 2018 BAL PIT @ BAL 23:16 9 35 3.9 1 1 4 4 0 10.4 10.9
28 Oct 2018 BAL BAL @ CAR 21:36 11 49 4.5 1 2 14 7 0 11.3 13.3
21 Oct 2018 BAL NO @ BAL 24:23 11 38 3.5 0 3 10 3.3 0 6.3 7.8
14 Oct 2018 BAL BAL @ TEN 21:0 19 54 2.8 2 0 0 0 0 17.4 17.4
7 Oct 2018 BAL BAL @ CLE 9:12 12 59 4.9 0 1 7 7 0 7.1 7.6
30 Sep 2018 BAL BAL @ PIT 26:14 11 42 3.8 0 1 3 3 1 9 10.5
23 Sep 2018 BAL DEN @ BAL 14:27 18 68 3.8 1 3 6 2 0 14.9 16.4
13 Sep 2018 BAL BAL @ CIN 23:34 9 35 3.9 0 3 55 18.3 0 10.5 12
9 Sep 2018 BAL BUF @ BAL 3:47 7 13 1.9 1 1 6 6 0 6.4 7.9

There’s a lot of debate over which quarterback is going to start for the Ravens this Sunday but one thing is for sure – Collins is in a wonderful spot at his lowest price point of the season. His total carries may be a little concerning over the past three games but let’s look closer. The Saints game was competitive but the Saints have the best rushing defense in the NFL. Then he went to Carolina and got destroyed, rendering the game script totally away from him. The week before the bye, they were chasing the Steelers all game long. I have a hard time buying the Cincinnati offense can put a ton of points on this Ravens defense, meaning Collins should get at least 15 touches. If he does, he should be able to hammer his price against the rushing defense that allows the second most yards in football. Collins has also taken the red zone away from Buck Allen the past two games, out-chancing him 6-2. If there’s a running quarterback in Robert Griffin or Lamar Jackson in the lineup, all the better for Collins.

 

Next game:

TB @ TEN

Time:

Sun, 27th Oct, 01:00PM ET

Odds:

TEN -2.5 / O/U 45.5

RB

Dion Lewis

Tennessee Titans

Salary: 4,900 3,900
FPPG: 2.69 3.70
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
LAC @ TEN Sun, 20 Oct 2019, 4:05PM ET 4,900 0.20 3,900 0.20
TEN @ DEN Sun, 13 Oct 2019, 4:25PM ET 4,900 3.40 3,700 4.90
BUF @ TEN Sun, 6 Oct 2019, 1:00PM ET 4,900 4.00 3,600 5.00
TEN @ ATL Sun, 29 Sep 2019, 1:00PM ET 4,900 4.00 3,700 6.00
TEN @ JAC Thu, 19 Sep 2019, 8:20PM ET 5,000 2.50 3,700 3.00
IND @ TEN Sun, 15 Sep 2019, 1:00PM ET 5,200 1.90 4,000 2.40
TEN @ CLE Sun, 8 Sep 2019, 1:00PM ET 5,600 2.80 4,700 4.30
IND @ TEN Sun, 30 Dec 2018, 8:20PM ET 5,000 3.80 N/a 5.30
WSH @ TEN Sat, 22 Dec 2018, 4:30PM ET 5,200 4.00 4,600 5.50
TEN @ NYG Sun, 16 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,400 5.90 4,600 7.40
Season Team RuAtt RuYd/G RuTD RuYd/R Avg RecR RecTa RecYd/G RecTD
2019 TEN 17 8.1 0 3.4 14 19 8.7 0
2018 TEN 155 32.3 1 3.3 59 67 25 1
Date Team Game Score RuAtt RuYd RuAvg RuTD Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
20 Oct 2019 TEN LAC @ TEN 20:23 1 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0.2 0.2
13 Oct 2019 TEN TEN @ DEN 0:16 1 -1 -1 0 3 20 6.7 0 3.4 4.9
6 Oct 2019 TEN BUF @ TEN 14:7 2 11 5.5 0 2 19 9.5 0 4 5
29 Sep 2019 TEN TEN @ ATL 24:10 4 16 4 0 4 4 1 0 4 6
19 Sep 2019 TEN TEN @ JAC 7:20 3 13 4.3 0 1 7 7 0 2.5 3
15 Sep 2019 TEN IND @ TEN 19:17 3 9 3 0 1 5 5 0 1.9 2.4
8 Sep 2019 TEN TEN @ CLE 43:13 3 7 2.3 0 3 6 2 0 2.8 4.3
30 Dec 2018 TEN IND @ TEN 33:17 0 0 0 0 3 23 7.7 0 3.8 5.3
22 Dec 2018 TEN WSH @ TEN 16:25 3 5 1.7 0 3 20 6.7 0 4 5.5
16 Dec 2018 TEN TEN @ NYG 17:0 7 35 5 0 3 9 3 0 5.9 7.4

Many will look at the mediocre game from Lewis this week and pass him over right away. Even more might look at the Colts giving up 3.9 yards a rush and just seven rushing touchdowns and be totally uninterested. After all, they just shut down Leonard Fournette on the ground. So why pay for Lewis? For one, anything under $5,000 with the ability to touch the ball 20+ times is too cheap. Where Lewis might really make his money this week is through the passing game. Indy has given up the third most receptions and the fourth most yards to running backs so far this season and Lewis has a 16 percent target share in the Titans offense. They really don’t have a reliable pass catcher past Corey Davis and I would fully expect Tennessee to use Lewis in the passing game to take advantage of this mismatch.

 

Next game:

DAL @ NYG

Time:

Mon, 4th Nov, 09:15PM ET

Odds:

WR

Amari Cooper

Dallas Cowboys

Salary: 7,800 7,200
FPPG: 16.33 20.10
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
PHI @ DAL Sun, 20 Oct 2019, 8:20PM ET 7,800 13.10 7,200 18.60
DAL @ NYJ Sun, 13 Oct 2019, 4:25PM ET 8,100 0.80 7,000 1.30
GB @ DAL Sun, 6 Oct 2019, 4:25PM ET 7,900 34.10 6,800 42.60
DAL @ NO Sun, 29 Sep 2019, 8:20PM ET 7,900 7.30 7,300 9.80
MIA @ DAL Sun, 22 Sep 2019, 1:00PM ET 7,700 23.80 7,500 26.80
DAL @ WSH Sun, 15 Sep 2019, 1:00PM ET 7,800 12.40 7,400 14.40
NYG @ DAL Sun, 8 Sep 2019, 4:25PM ET 7,500 19.60 7,000 25.60
DAL @ LAR Sat, 12 Jan 2019, 8:15PM ET 6,800 17.50 6,500 20.50
SEA @ DAL Sat, 5 Jan 2019, 8:15PM ET 6,700 14.10 7,500 20.60
DAL @ NYG Sun, 30 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,700 3.60 7,200 7.10
Season Team ReR ReTa ReYd ReYd/G ReTD Yd/Ta
2019 DAL 38 50 621 88.7 5 12.42
2018 DAL 53 76 725 80.6 6 9.54
2018 OAK 22 31 280 46.7 1 9.03
Date Team Game Score Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
20 Oct 2019 DAL PHI @ DAL 10:37 5 106 21.2 0 13.1 18.6
13 Oct 2019 DAL DAL @ NYJ 22:24 1 3 3 0 0.8 1.3
6 Oct 2019 DAL GB @ DAL 34:24 11 226 20.5 1 34.1 42.6
29 Sep 2019 DAL DAL @ NO 10:12 5 48 9.6 0 7.3 9.8
22 Sep 2019 DAL MIA @ DAL 6:31 6 88 14.7 2 23.8 26.8
15 Sep 2019 DAL DAL @ WSH 31:21 4 44 11 1 12.4 14.4
8 Sep 2019 DAL NYG @ DAL 17:35 6 106 17.7 1 19.6 25.6
12 Jan 2019 DAL DAL @ LAR 22:30 6 65 10.8 1 17.5 20.5
5 Jan 2019 DAL SEA @ DAL 22:24 7 106 15.1 0 14.1 20.6
30 Dec 2018 DAL DAL @ NYG 36:35 5 31 6.2 0 3.6 7.1

I’ll be the first one to tell you that I’ve used Cooper as the butt of some jokes in the very recent past when he was a Raider. Really, who among us hasn’t made fun of that entire organization? However, Cooper has always had the good as far as being a receiver at the NFL level goes. He can run routes with just about anyone and is now getting consistent targets through his first two games. Since he’s arrived in Dallas, he’s gotten a 28.7 market share of the targets. If he had that many through the entire season, he’d be eighth in the league, ahead of players like Michael Thomas, Keenan Allen and Antonio Brown. What’s even better is he’s already seen six red zone targets. We all figured he would be the lead dog in Dallas but it’s absolutely coming to fruition. The Falcons have allowed the third most passing yards and a whopping 21 touchdowns so far this season. Cooper is at least $1,000 too cheap.

 

Next game:

NYG @ DET

Time:

Sun, 27th Oct, 01:00PM ET

Odds:

NYG +7.0 / O/U 50.0

WR

Sterling Shepard

NY Giants

Salary: 6,500 5,400
FPPG: 12.85 16.70
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
MIN @ NYG Sun, 6 Oct 2019, 1:00PM ET 6,500 7.20 5,800 9.70
WSH @ NYG Sun, 29 Sep 2019, 1:00PM ET 6,500 13.40 5,800 16.90
NYG @ TB Sun, 22 Sep 2019, 4:05PM ET 6,000 25.60 4,900 32.10
NYG @ DAL Sun, 8 Sep 2019, 4:25PM ET 6,000 7.20 5,000 10.20
DAL @ NYG Sun, 30 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,500 9.60 5,400 11.60
NYG @ IND Sun, 23 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,000 14.00 4,800 20.00
TEN @ NYG Sun, 16 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,200 4.70 4,400 5.70
NYG @ WSH Sun, 9 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,200 8.70 4,400 9.70
CHI @ NYG Sun, 2 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,400 4.80 4,600 6.80
NYG @ PHI Sun, 25 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,000 5.70 5,300 7.70
Season Team ReR ReTa ReYd ReYd/G ReTD Yd/Ta
2019 NYG 25 34 267 66.8 1 7.85
2018 NYG 66 107 872 54.5 4 8.15
Date Team Game Score Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
6 Oct 2019 NYG MIN @ NYG 28:10 5 49 9.8 0 7.2 9.7
29 Sep 2019 NYG WSH @ NYG 3:24 7 76 10.9 0 13.4 16.9
22 Sep 2019 NYG NYG @ TB 32:31 7 100 14.3 1 25.6 32.1
8 Sep 2019 NYG NYG @ DAL 17:35 6 42 7 0 7.2 10.2
30 Dec 2018 NYG DAL @ NYG 36:35 4 67 16.8 0 9.6 11.6
23 Dec 2018 NYG NYG @ IND 27:28 6 113 18.8 0 14 20
16 Dec 2018 NYG TEN @ NYG 17:0 2 37 18.5 0 4.7 5.7
9 Dec 2018 NYG NYG @ WSH 40:16 2 17 8.5 1 8.7 9.7
2 Dec 2018 NYG CHI @ NYG 27:30 4 28 7 0 4.8 6.8
25 Nov 2018 NYG NYG @ PHI 22:25 4 37 9.3 0 5.7 7.7

I know, it’s the second player that myself and Adam have agreed on. The bottom line is to get you guys the best plays and I believe Adam says it best on Shepard –

Shepard is coming off a season-low three targets, which is definitely underwhelming. But he did find the end zone late in this game and this spot against Tampa Bay is one where I am simply not afraid to chase some points. Shepard runs just over 69 percent of his routes from the slot, while the Bucs are allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to slot receivers, while no team has allowed more touchdowns to that part of the field with 10. The Giants are certainly not the greatest offense in the league but this Bucs defense will give it up to anyone, surrendering the second-most points per drive in the NFL at 2.76.

 

Next game:

CLE @ NE

Time:

Sun, 27th Oct, 04:25PM ET

Odds:

CLE +13.0 / O/U 45.5

TE

Ricky SealsJones

Cleveland Browns

Salary: 5,600 3,100
FPPG: 7.45 6.70
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
SEA @ CLE Sun, 13 Oct 2019, 1:00PM ET 5,500 12.20 3,300 13.70
CLE @ SF Mon, 7 Oct 2019, 8:15PM ET 5,500 0 3,200 0
CLE @ BAL Sun, 29 Sep 2019, 1:00PM ET 5,000 15.70 2,800 17.20
LAR @ CLE Sun, 22 Sep 2019, 8:20PM ET 4,700 1.90 2,700 2.40
LAR @ ARI Sun, 23 Dec 2018, 4:05PM ET 4,900 0.80 2,900 1.30
ARI @ ATL Sun, 16 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 4,900 3.70 2,600 5.20
DET @ ARI Sun, 9 Dec 2018, 4:25PM ET 4,900 4.60 2,700 6.10
ARI @ GB Sun, 2 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,200 1.50 2,900 2.00
ARI @ LAC Sun, 25 Nov 2018, 4:05PM ET 5,200 1.00 3,100 1.50
OAK @ ARI Sun, 18 Nov 2018, 4:05PM ET 5,200 1.00 2,900 1.50
Season Team ReR ReTa ReYd ReYd/G ReTD Yd/Ta
2019 CLE 7 12 143 28.6 2 11.92
2018 ARI 34 69 343 22.9 1 4.97
Date Team Game Score Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
13 Oct 2019 CLE SEA @ CLE 32:28 3 47 15.7 1 12.2 13.7
7 Oct 2019 CLE CLE @ SF 3:31 0 0 0 0 0 0
29 Sep 2019 CLE CLE @ BAL 40:25 3 82 27.3 1 15.7 17.2
22 Sep 2019 CLE LAR @ CLE 20:13 1 14 14 0 1.9 2.4
23 Dec 2018 ARI LAR @ ARI 31:9 1 3 3 0 0.8 1.3
16 Dec 2018 ARI ARI @ ATL 14:40 3 22 7.3 0 3.7 5.2
9 Dec 2018 ARI DET @ ARI 17:3 3 31 10.3 0 4.6 6.1
2 Dec 2018 ARI ARI @ GB 20:17 1 10 10 0 1.5 2
25 Nov 2018 ARI ARI @ LAC 10:45 1 5 5 0 1 1.5
18 Nov 2018 ARI OAK @ ARI 23:21 1 5 5 0 1 1.5

For full disclosure, I have a very strong desire to use Zach Ertz on this slate. He’s leaps and bounds the best tight end option but a lot of folks are going to want to jam in as many high priced running backs as they can. If you go that route, look at Seals-Jones for some salary relief. He’s seen 13 total targets under new coordinator Byron Leftwich and just so happens to play one of the worst defenses in football. The Raiders are allowing almost 70 yards a game to tight ends and have already surrendered six touchdowns to the position. That’s likely much better than it could be because they’ve already played the Rams, Dolphins, Chargers twice, Broncos and Seahawks. Six games against teams that don’t utilize tight ends very much in the passing game and you’ve given up those gaudy numbers? If Seals-Jones sees the targets he has recently, he could have some serious upside in addition to being a very solid punt.