Week 10 NFL DFS Value Picks with Adam Strangis

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We’re back for another week of NFL action and this slate is absolutely loaded at the running back position! If you haven’t listened to the DFS NFL Podcast with myself and Adam Pfeifer, make sure you give us a listen before lock this Sunday for most of our thoughts on this one. I mentioned it on there but there are a whopping 18 running backs that have caught my eye this week and three of them are top shelf options. Let’s take a look at how we did last week and dive into this week to figure out which values can help us spend up where we want to!

QB, Jared Goff – 33.3 DK points – He was far less owned than I thought and totally smashed 

RB, Jordan Howard – 16.7 DK points – A little over 3x return is exactly what we’re looking for 

RB, Elijah McGuire – 9.7 DK points – Remember, he was the minimum and let us spend up so 9.7 was totally acceptable 

WR, D.J. Moore – 5.2 DK points – Moore let us down but was popular enough it wasn’t a crushing blow 

WR, DeVante Parker – 1.8 DK points – Adam Gase is one of my least favorite coaches in football 

TE, O.J. Howard – 21.3 DK points – Myself, Adam and Josh Collacchi all loved Howard last week with good reason 

 

Quarterback

Next game:

Time:

Odds:

QB

Marcus Mariota

Tennessee Titans

Salary: 6,600 5,500
FPPG: 13.10 13.70
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
WSH @ TEN Sat, 22 Dec 2018, 4:30PM ET 8,000 5.10 5,500 5.10
TEN @ NYG Sun, 16 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 7,100 4.62 5,100 4.62
JAC @ TEN Thu, 6 Dec 2018, 8:20PM ET 7,000 6.78 4,900 6.78
NYJ @ TEN Sun, 2 Dec 2018, 4:05PM ET 7,000 22.58 5,200 22.58
TEN @ HOU Mon, 26 Nov 2018, 8:15PM ET 7,100 22.92 5,300 25.92
TEN @ IND Sun, 18 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 7,100 4.10 5,500 4.10
NE @ TEN Sun, 11 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,700 21.82 4,700 22.32
TEN @ DAL Mon, 5 Nov 2018, 8:15PM ET 6,800 22.80 4,800 24.80
TEN @ LAC Sun, 21 Oct 2018, 9:30AM ET 6,800 16.28 4,900 16.28
BAL @ TEN Sun, 14 Oct 2018, 4:25PM ET 6,800 7.18 5,400 7.18
Season Team PaYd/G PaTD Pa QB Rating PaYd/Pa Avg
2018 TEN 207.6 11 92.3 7.6
2017 TEN 203.9 13 79.3 7.1
Date Team Game Score Comp/Att PaYd PaTD PaInt RuAtt RuYd RuTD FD FPts DK FPts
22 Dec 2018 TEN WSH @ TEN 16:25 10/13 110 0 0 1 7 0 5.1 5.1
16 Dec 2018 TEN TEN @ NYG 17:0 12/20 88 0 0 2 11 0 4.62 4.62
6 Dec 2018 TEN JAC @ TEN 9:30 18/24 162 0 1 4 13 0 6.78 6.78
2 Dec 2018 TEN NYJ @ TEN 22:26 20/35 282 2 1 4 43 0 22.58 22.58
26 Nov 2018 TEN TEN @ HOU 17:34 22/23 303 2 0 6 28 0 22.92 25.92
18 Nov 2018 TEN TEN @ IND 10:38 10/13 85 0 1 4 17 0 4.1 4.1
11 Nov 2018 TEN NE @ TEN 10:34 16/24 228 2 0 2 21 0 21.82 22.32
5 Nov 2018 TEN TEN @ DAL 28:14 21/29 240 2 0 10 32 1 22.8 24.8
21 Oct 2018 TEN TEN @ LAC 19:20 24/32 237 1 1 7 38 0 16.28 16.28
14 Oct 2018 TEN BAL @ TEN 21:0 10/15 117 0 0 2 25 0 7.18 7.18

There is a small amount of trepidation here just because I generally don’t like to take quarterbacks in poor offenses. However, the combination of the bye week and the fact that the Titans haven’t been on the main slate in weeks have Mariota mis-priced here at just $4,700 on DK. Mariota’s game log is littered with terrible performances but he’s been playing hurt for weeks. He suffered nerve damage in his throwing arm and it tends to be important for a quarterback to be able to feel the ball. Those issues might be in the rear view as Mariota made some nice passes Monday night. He also attempted 10 rushes, finding the end zone. He’s at his best as a dual threat option and the Titans should need to score at least 24 points here to stay competitive. Mariota should throw the ball at least 30 times and have another 5-6 rushing attempts. I’ll happily take that kind of opportunity at this price against a defense that’s given up 19 touchdown passes and the second most rushing yards to quarterbacks this season.

Running Back

Next game:

Time:

Odds:

RB

Aaron Jones

Green Bay Packers

Salary: 7,100 3,000
FPPG: 13.20 14.60
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
GB @ CHI Sun, 16 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 7,500 0.80 6,600 0.80
ATL @ GB Sun, 9 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 7,500 18.10 7,200 19.60
ARI @ GB Sun, 2 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 7,600 13.20 6,700 15.20
GB @ MIN Sun, 25 Nov 2018, 8:20PM ET 7,300 16.80 6,000 18.30
GB @ SEA Thu, 15 Nov 2018, 8:20PM ET 6,700 24.80 5,700 27.30
MIA @ GB Sun, 11 Nov 2018, 4:25PM ET 6,500 30.70 5,000 35.20
GB @ NE Sun, 4 Nov 2018, 8:20PM ET 5,800 7.60 4,400 9.60
GB @ LAR Sun, 28 Oct 2018, 4:25PM ET 5,800 15.60 4,100 16.60
SF @ GB Mon, 15 Oct 2018, 8:15PM ET 6,000 4.10 4,600 4.10
GB @ DET Sun, 7 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,100 6.90 4,300 7.90
Season Team RuAtt RuYd/G RuTD RuYd/R Avg RecR RecTa RecYd/G RecTD
2018 GB 133 60.7 8 5.5 26 35 17.2 1
2017 GB 81 37.3 4 5.5 9 18 1.8 0
Date Team Game Score RuAtt RuYd RuAvg RuTD Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
16 Dec 2018 GB GB @ CHI 17:24 4 8 2 0 0 0 0 0 0.8 0.8
9 Dec 2018 GB ATL @ GB 20:34 17 78 4.6 1 3 28 9.3 0 18.1 19.6
2 Dec 2018 GB ARI @ GB 20:17 11 36 3.3 1 4 16 4 0 13.2 15.2
25 Nov 2018 GB GB @ MIN 17:24 17 72 4.2 1 3 21 7 0 16.8 18.3
15 Nov 2018 GB GB @ SEA 24:27 11 40 3.6 1 5 63 12.6 1 24.8 27.3
11 Nov 2018 GB MIA @ GB 12:31 15 145 9.7 2 3 27 9 0 30.7 35.2
4 Nov 2018 GB GB @ NE 17:31 14 76 5.4 0 2 10 5 0 7.6 9.6
28 Oct 2018 GB GB @ LAR 27:29 12 86 7.2 1 2 0 0 0 15.6 16.6
15 Oct 2018 GB SF @ GB 30:33 8 41 5.1 0 0 0 0 0 4.1 4.1
7 Oct 2018 GB GB @ DET 23:31 7 40 5.7 0 2 19 9.5 0 6.9 7.9

Fantasy players have been salivating over this for at least a month but we could finally see the Aaron Jones breakout game this week. Despite the costly fumble last week, Jones should still have plenty of chances this week against the Miami defense that is surrendering the fifth most rushing yards per game and fifth most points to the position. Jones saw just a hair under 60 percent of the snaps this past week and that’s likely about as high as they’ll go unless Jamaal Williams suffers an injury. He’s still seen at least 14 touches in consecutive games and backed that up last week with four red zone chances. When you’re getting this opportunity in the Packers offense in a great matchup, the chances are Jones will do well in this spot. 90 total yards and a touchdown hits the 3x multiplier we want and anything else is a bonus.

Next game:

Time:

Odds:

RB

Duke Johnson Jr.

Cleveland Browns

Salary: 5,200 3,800
FPPG: 7.04 8.60
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
CLE @ BAL Sun, 30 Dec 2018, 4:25PM ET 5,200 2.90 3,800 3.40
CIN @ CLE Sun, 23 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 4,800 9.60 3,800 12.60
CLE @ DEN Sat, 15 Dec 2018, 8:20PM ET 4,700 7.30 3,700 9.30
CAR @ CLE Sun, 9 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,000 -0.60 3,700 -0.60
CLE @ HOU Sun, 2 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,400 2.20 4,400 3.20
CLE @ CIN Sun, 25 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,600 4.40 5,100 4.90
ATL @ CLE Sun, 11 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,600 12.60 4,700 14.60
KC @ CLE Sun, 4 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,200 25.10 3,800 29.60
CLE @ PIT Sun, 28 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,300 2.60 3,900 3.60
CLE @ TB Sun, 21 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,100 3.90 4,000 5.90
Season Team RuAtt RuYd/G RuTD RuYd/R Avg RecR RecTa RecYd/G RecTD
2018 CLE 40 12.6 0 5 47 62 26.8 3
2017 CLE 82 21.8 4 4.2 74 93 43.3 3
Date Team Game Score RuAtt RuYd RuAvg RuTD Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
30 Dec 2018 CLE CLE @ BAL 24:26 4 21 5.3 0 1 3 3 0 2.9 3.4
23 Dec 2018 CLE CIN @ CLE 18:26 2 12 6 0 6 54 9 0 9.6 12.6
15 Dec 2018 CLE CLE @ DEN 17:16 4 28 7 0 4 25 6.3 0 7.3 9.3
9 Dec 2018 CLE CAR @ CLE 20:26 2 -6 -3 0 0 0 0 0 -0.6 -0.6
2 Dec 2018 CLE CLE @ HOU 13:29 0 0 0 0 2 12 6 0 2.2 3.2
25 Nov 2018 CLE CLE @ CIN 35:20 2 16 8 0 1 23 23 0 4.4 4.9
11 Nov 2018 CLE ATL @ CLE 16:28 3 15 5 0 4 31 7.8 1 12.6 14.6
4 Nov 2018 CLE KC @ CLE 37:21 1 8 8 0 9 78 8.7 2 25.1 29.6
28 Oct 2018 CLE CLE @ PIT 18:33 2 0 0 0 2 16 8 0 2.6 3.6
21 Oct 2018 CLE CLE @ TB 23:26 1 -4 -4 0 4 23 5.8 0 3.9 5.9

I would assume Johnson is going to be chalk this week but I’ll be a part of rocking that chalk. We finally got to see what Johnson can do in this offense last week as he went nuts on the Chiefs. I actually used Johnson last week just to fit Adam Thielen and Todd Gurely, not having the expectation that Johnson would out-score them both. The best part of last week is the offense was actually scheming plays for him. His targets weren’t a fluke where Baker Mayfield was running for his life and happened to hit a safety valve. These were plays to utilize Johnson’s talents. They should once again be on full display against a Falcons team that allows the most receptions to running backs in football. At just $4,700, count me all the way in.

Wide Receiver

Next game:

Time:

Odds:

WR

Larry Fitzgerald

Arizona Cardinals

Salary: 6,300 4,900
FPPG: 9.31 11.70
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
ARI @ SEA Sun, 30 Dec 2018, 4:25PM ET 6,300 11.60 4,900 13.60
LAR @ ARI Sun, 23 Dec 2018, 4:05PM ET 6,100 13.58 5,200 16.58
ARI @ ATL Sun, 16 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,000 11.70 4,700 15.20
DET @ ARI Sun, 9 Dec 2018, 4:25PM ET 6,200 8.00 4,900 10.50
ARI @ GB Sun, 2 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,400 6.30 5,100 7.80
ARI @ LAC Sun, 25 Nov 2018, 4:05PM ET 6,300 10.00 5,000 11.00
OAK @ ARI Sun, 18 Nov 2018, 4:05PM ET 5,900 15.30 5,600 16.30
ARI @ KC Sun, 11 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,800 8.00 5,400 11.00
SF @ ARI Sun, 28 Oct 2018, 4:25PM ET 5,800 22.20 4,400 29.20
DEN @ ARI Thu, 18 Oct 2018, 8:20PM ET 5,800 12.00 4,300 14.00
Season Team ReR ReTa ReYd ReYd/G ReTD Yd/Ta
2018 ARI 69 112 734 45.9 6 6.55
2017 ARI 109 161 1156 72.3 6 7.18
Date Team Game Score Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
30 Dec 2018 ARI ARI @ SEA 24:27 4 36 9 1 11.6 13.6
23 Dec 2018 ARI LAR @ ARI 31:9 6 53 8.8 0 13.58 16.58
16 Dec 2018 ARI ARI @ ATL 14:40 7 82 11.7 0 11.7 15.2
9 Dec 2018 ARI DET @ ARI 17:3 5 55 11 0 8 10.5
2 Dec 2018 ARI ARI @ GB 20:17 3 48 16 0 6.3 7.8
25 Nov 2018 ARI ARI @ LAC 10:45 2 30 15 1 10 11
18 Nov 2018 ARI OAK @ ARI 23:21 2 23 11.5 2 15.3 16.3
11 Nov 2018 ARI ARI @ KC 14:26 6 50 8.3 0 8 11
28 Oct 2018 ARI SF @ ARI 15:18 8 102 12.8 1 22.2 29.2
18 Oct 2018 ARI DEN @ ARI 45:10 4 40 10 1 12 14

This isn’t just going after one of my favorite football players of all time, there’s legitimate reasons to play Larry Fitzgerald this week. First, Mike McCoy is no longer there and in his first game with McCoy out the door, Fitzgerald saw 12 targets and had a monster game of 8/102/1. That game finished at a score of 18-15 for 33 total points and there’s a reasonable chance that the Chiefs will score that money on their own. Arizona is going to have to try and match them score for score which means a lot of Fitzgerald and his 23 percent target share. The old GOAT showed he still has plenty of gas left in the tank and only needs five receptions for 60 yards and a touchdown to pay off his tag. The touchdown could be iffy but the five receptions for 60 yards is setting the bar pretty low in this style of game. Fitzgerald will continue to be the go-to target for Josh Rosen and is reasonable cash game play this week.

Next game:

Time:

Odds:

WR

Maurice Harris

Washington Redskins

Salary: 4,500 3,000
FPPG: 4.13 5.20
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
WSH @ JAC Sun, 16 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 4,500 1.80 3,000 2.30
NYG @ WSH Sun, 9 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 4,700 0 3,400 0
HOU @ WSH Sun, 18 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,500 1.80 4,500 2.30
WSH @ TB Sun, 11 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,900 8.10 3,900 10.60
ATL @ WSH Sun, 4 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 4,700 17.40 3,300 25.40
WSH @ NYG Sun, 28 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 4,900 3.00 3,300 4.00
DAL @ WSH Sun, 21 Oct 2018, 4:25PM ET 4,500 3.70 3,000 5.20
CAR @ WSH Sun, 14 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 4,500 3.40 3,000 4.90
WSH @ NO Mon, 8 Oct 2018, 8:15PM ET 4,500 6.20 3,000 7.70
ARI @ WSH Sun, 17 Dec 2017, 1:00PM ET N/a 0 N/a 0
Season Team ReR ReTa ReYd ReYd/G ReTD Yd/Ta
2018 WSH 28 47 304 25.3 0 6.47
2017 WSH 4 6 62 10.3 1 10.33
Date Team Game Score Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
16 Dec 2018 WSH WSH @ JAC 16:13 1 13 13 0 1.8 2.3
9 Dec 2018 WSH NYG @ WSH 40:16 0 0 0 0 0 0
18 Nov 2018 WSH HOU @ WSH 23:21 1 13 13 0 1.8 2.3
11 Nov 2018 WSH WSH @ TB 16:3 5 52 10.4 0 8.1 10.6
4 Nov 2018 WSH ATL @ WSH 38:14 10 124 12.4 0 17.4 25.4
28 Oct 2018 WSH WSH @ NYG 20:13 2 20 10 0 3 4
21 Oct 2018 WSH DAL @ WSH 17:20 3 22 7.3 0 3.7 5.2
14 Oct 2018 WSH CAR @ WSH 17:23 3 13 4.3 0 3.4 4.9
8 Oct 2018 WSH WSH @ NO 19:43 3 47 15.7 0 6.2 7.7
17 Dec 2017 WSH ARI @ WSH 15:20 0 0 0 0 0 0

I’m not terribly excited to buy a part of the Washington offense but the price and matchup might just be too good to pass up in cash games. The Redskins have seen both their offensive line and receiving corps decimated by injuries meaning two things. First, Alex Smith is going to have to get the ball out quick before the pass rush gets the better of the backups protecting him. The second is someone has to catch the ball in this offense and Harris in the slot might be the best bet in this game. The Bucs have given up 10 touchdowns to slot receivers and we saw last week that Smith went to Harris repeatedly with 12 targets. I’m not sure I expect another 100 yard game but if he turns into a popular cash option and he does go off at this price, you could be behind the eight ball.

Tight End

Next game:

Time:

Odds:

TE

Benjamin Watson

New Orleans Saints

Salary: 4,800 2,600
FPPG: 5.35 5.20
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
PHI @ NO Sun, 13 Jan 2019, 4:40PM ET 5,000 1.70 2,900 2.20
CAR @ NO Sun, 30 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 4,800 3.90 2,600 4.90
PIT @ NO Sun, 23 Dec 2018, 4:25PM ET 5,000 1.10 2,700 1.60
NO @ CAR Mon, 17 Dec 2018, 8:15PM ET 5,000 3.30 3,000 3.80
NO @ TB Sun, 9 Dec 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,000 3.90 2,900 5.40
ATL @ NO Thu, 22 Nov 2018, 8:20PM ET 5,600 2.50 3,200 3.00
NO @ CIN Sun, 11 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,900 0.60 3,400 1.10
LAR @ NO Sun, 4 Nov 2018, 4:25PM ET 5,400 13.70 3,200 15.20
NO @ BAL Sun, 21 Oct 2018, 4:05PM ET 5,200 13.30 3,000 16.30
WSH @ NO Mon, 8 Oct 2018, 8:15PM ET 5,200 5.00 3,200 7.00
Season Team ReR ReTa ReYd ReYd/G ReTD Yd/Ta
2018 NO 1 1 12 12 0 12.00
2017 BAL 61 79 522 32.6 4 6.61
Date Team Game Score Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
13 Jan 2019 NO PHI @ NO 14:20 1 12 12 0 1.7 2.2
30 Dec 2018 NO CAR @ NO 33:14 2 29 14.5 0 3.9 4.9
23 Dec 2018 NO PIT @ NO 28:31 1 6 6 0 1.1 1.6
17 Dec 2018 NO NO @ CAR 12:9 1 28 28 0 3.3 3.8
9 Dec 2018 NO NO @ TB 28:14 3 24 8 0 3.9 5.4
22 Nov 2018 NO ATL @ NO 17:31 1 20 20 0 2.5 3
11 Nov 2018 NO NO @ CIN 51:14 1 1 1 0 0.6 1.1
4 Nov 2018 NO LAR @ NO 35:45 3 62 20.7 1 13.7 15.2
21 Oct 2018 NO NO @ BAL 24:23 6 43 7.2 1 13.3 16.3
8 Oct 2018 NO WSH @ NO 19:43 4 30 7.5 0 5 7

If Jordan Reed sits, Vernon Davis is going to be one of the chalkiest players on the slate and I would likely use him as well. If not, take a look at Ben Watson. The goose egg against Minnesota does scare you a little bit but that was a very weird game for the Saints from a game flow perspective. It’s not likely to replicate and Watson has seen at least three targets in every other game this season. With the signing of Dez Bryant, people may overlook Watson but the Bengals have given up the second most points to tight ends this year. That includes 53 receptions, 602 yards and five touchdowns. Watson has a 11.5 share of the targets which isn’t an overwhelming amount but it’s good enough in this matchup with this kind of offense beside him.