Week 10 NFL DFS Value Picks with Adam Strangis

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We’re back for another week of NFL action and this slate is absolutely loaded at the running back position! If you haven’t listened to the DFS NFL Podcast with myself and Adam Pfeifer, make sure you give us a listen before lock this Sunday for most of our thoughts on this one. I mentioned it on there but there are a whopping 18 running backs that have caught my eye this week and three of them are top shelf options. Let’s take a look at how we did last week and dive into this week to figure out which values can help us spend up where we want to!

QB, Jared Goff – 33.3 DK points – He was far less owned than I thought and totally smashed 

RB, Jordan Howard – 16.7 DK points – A little over 3x return is exactly what we’re looking for 

RB, Elijah McGuire – 9.7 DK points – Remember, he was the minimum and let us spend up so 9.7 was totally acceptable 

WR, D.J. Moore – 5.2 DK points – Moore let us down but was popular enough it wasn’t a crushing blow 

WR, DeVante Parker – 1.8 DK points – Adam Gase is one of my least favorite coaches in football 

TE, O.J. Howard – 21.3 DK points – Myself, Adam and Josh Collacchi all loved Howard last week with good reason 

 

Quarterback

Next game:

TEN @ IND

Time:

Sun, 18th Nov, 01:00PM ET

Odds:

TEN +2.0 / O/U 48.0

QB

Marcus Mariota

Tennessee Titans

Salary: 7,100 5,500
FPPG: 14.67 15.40
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
NE @ TEN Sun, 11 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,700 21.82 4,700 22.32
TEN @ DAL Mon, 5 Nov 2018, 8:15PM ET 6,800 22.80 4,800 24.80
TEN @ LAC Sun, 21 Oct 2018, 9:30AM ET 6,800 16.28 4,900 16.28
BAL @ TEN Sun, 14 Oct 2018, 4:25PM ET 6,800 7.18 5,400 7.18
TEN @ BUF Sun, 7 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,800 5.16 6,100 5.16
PHI @ TEN Sun, 30 Sep 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,300 31.36 5,000 34.36
TEN @ JAC Sun, 23 Sep 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,500 9.10 4,900 9.10
TEN @ MIA Sun, 9 Sep 2018, 1:00PM ET 7,200 3.62 6,300 3.62
TEN @ NE Sat, 13 Jan 2018, 8:15PM ET N/a 21.86 N/a 21.86
TEN @ KC Sat, 6 Jan 2018, 4:20PM ET N/a 26.90 N/a 27.40
Season Team PaYd/G PaTD Pa QB Rating PaYd/Pa Avg
2018 TEN 168.6 7 89.9 7.4
2017 TEN 203.9 13 79.3 7.1
Date Team Game Score Comp/Att PaYd PaTD PaInt RuAtt RuYd RuTD FD FPts DK FPts
11 Nov 2018 TEN NE @ TEN 10:34 16/24 228 2 0 2 21 0 21.82 22.32
5 Nov 2018 TEN TEN @ DAL 28:14 21/29 240 2 0 10 32 1 22.8 24.8
21 Oct 2018 TEN TEN @ LAC 19:20 24/32 237 1 1 7 38 0 16.28 16.28
14 Oct 2018 TEN BAL @ TEN 21:0 10/15 117 0 0 2 25 0 7.18 7.18
7 Oct 2018 TEN TEN @ BUF 12:13 14/26 129 0 1 2 10 0 5.16 5.16
30 Sep 2018 TEN PHI @ TEN 23:26 30/43 344 2 1 10 46 1 31.36 34.36
23 Sep 2018 TEN TEN @ JAC 9:6 12/18 100 0 0 7 51 0 9.1 9.1
9 Sep 2018 TEN TEN @ MIA 20:27 9/16 103 0 2 3 15 0 3.62 3.62
13 Jan 2018 TEN TEN @ NE 14:35 22/37 254 2 0 4 37 0 21.86 21.86
6 Jan 2018 TEN TEN @ KC 22:21 19/31 205 2 1 8 46 0 26.9 27.4

There is a small amount of trepidation here just because I generally don’t like to take quarterbacks in poor offenses. However, the combination of the bye week and the fact that the Titans haven’t been on the main slate in weeks have Mariota mis-priced here at just $4,700 on DK. Mariota’s game log is littered with terrible performances but he’s been playing hurt for weeks. He suffered nerve damage in his throwing arm and it tends to be important for a quarterback to be able to feel the ball. Those issues might be in the rear view as Mariota made some nice passes Monday night. He also attempted 10 rushes, finding the end zone. He’s at his best as a dual threat option and the Titans should need to score at least 24 points here to stay competitive. Mariota should throw the ball at least 30 times and have another 5-6 rushing attempts. I’ll happily take that kind of opportunity at this price against a defense that’s given up 19 touchdown passes and the second most rushing yards to quarterbacks this season.

Running Back

Next game:

GB @ SEA

Time:

Thu, 15th Nov, 08:20PM ET

Odds:

GB +2.5 / O/U 49.0

RB

Aaron Jones

Green Bay Packers

Salary: 6,700 5,700
FPPG: 12.10 13.50
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
MIA @ GB Sun, 11 Nov 2018, 4:25PM ET 6,500 30.70 5,000 35.20
GB @ NE Sun, 4 Nov 2018, 8:20PM ET 5,800 7.60 4,400 9.60
GB @ LAR Sun, 28 Oct 2018, 4:25PM ET 5,800 15.60 4,100 16.60
SF @ GB Mon, 15 Oct 2018, 8:15PM ET 6,000 4.10 4,600 4.10
GB @ DET Sun, 7 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,100 6.90 4,300 7.90
BUF @ GB Sun, 30 Sep 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,500 14.70 4,100 15.20
GB @ WSH Sun, 23 Sep 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,900 5.20 4,300 5.70
MIN @ GB Sat, 23 Dec 2017, 8:30PM ET N/a 1.30 N/a 1.30
GB @ CAR Sun, 17 Dec 2017, 1:00PM ET N/a 5.80 N/a 6.30
GB @ CLE Sun, 10 Dec 2017, 1:00PM ET N/a -0.20 N/a -0.20
Season Team RuAtt RuYd/G RuTD RuYd/R Avg RecR RecTa RecYd/G RecTD
2018 GB 73 70.6 4 6.8 11 17 11.1 0
2017 GB 81 37.3 4 5.5 9 18 1.8 0
Date Team Game Score RuAtt RuYd RuAvg RuTD Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
11 Nov 2018 GB MIA @ GB 12:31 15 145 9.7 2 3 27 9 0 30.7 35.2
4 Nov 2018 GB GB @ NE 17:31 14 76 5.4 0 2 10 5 0 7.6 9.6
28 Oct 2018 GB GB @ LAR 27:29 12 86 7.2 1 2 0 0 0 15.6 16.6
15 Oct 2018 GB SF @ GB 30:33 8 41 5.1 0 0 0 0 0 4.1 4.1
7 Oct 2018 GB GB @ DET 23:31 7 40 5.7 0 2 19 9.5 0 6.9 7.9
30 Sep 2018 GB BUF @ GB 0:22 11 65 5.9 1 1 17 17 0 14.7 15.2
23 Sep 2018 GB GB @ WSH 17:31 6 42 7 0 1 5 5 0 5.2 5.7
23 Dec 2017 GB MIN @ GB 16:0 3 13 4.3 0 0 0 0 0 1.3 1.3
17 Dec 2017 GB GB @ CAR 24:31 3 47 15.7 0 1 6 6 0 5.8 6.3
10 Dec 2017 GB GB @ CLE 27:21 4 -2 -0.5 0 0 0 0 0 -0.2 -0.2

Fantasy players have been salivating over this for at least a month but we could finally see the Aaron Jones breakout game this week. Despite the costly fumble last week, Jones should still have plenty of chances this week against the Miami defense that is surrendering the fifth most rushing yards per game and fifth most points to the position. Jones saw just a hair under 60 percent of the snaps this past week and that’s likely about as high as they’ll go unless Jamaal Williams suffers an injury. He’s still seen at least 14 touches in consecutive games and backed that up last week with four red zone chances. When you’re getting this opportunity in the Packers offense in a great matchup, the chances are Jones will do well in this spot. 90 total yards and a touchdown hits the 3x multiplier we want and anything else is a bonus.

Next game:

CLE @ CIN

Time:

Sun, 25th Nov, 01:00PM ET

Odds:

RB

Duke Johnson Jr.

Cleveland Browns

Salary: 5,600 4,700
FPPG: 7.79 9.40
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
ATL @ CLE Sun, 11 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,600 12.60 4,700 14.60
KC @ CLE Sun, 4 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,200 25.10 3,800 29.60
CLE @ PIT Sun, 28 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,300 2.60 3,900 3.60
CLE @ TB Sun, 21 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,100 3.90 4,000 5.90
LAC @ CLE Sun, 14 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 4,800 12.90 3,700 14.90
BAL @ CLE Sun, 7 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 4,800 4.70 3,900 5.20
CLE @ OAK Sun, 30 Sep 2018, 4:05PM ET 4,800 15.60 3,900 17.60
NYJ @ CLE Thu, 20 Sep 2018, 8:20PM ET 4,800 4.30 4,100 5.30
CLE @ NO Sun, 16 Sep 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,200 2.00 4,200 3.00
PIT @ CLE Sun, 9 Sep 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,800 3.00 4,700 3.50
Season Team RuAtt RuYd/G RuTD RuYd/R Avg RecR RecTa RecYd/G RecTD
2018 CLE 26 13 0 5 33 42 31.2 3
2017 CLE 82 21.8 4 4.2 74 93 43.3 3
Date Team Game Score RuAtt RuYd RuAvg RuTD Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
11 Nov 2018 CLE ATL @ CLE 16:28 3 15 5 0 4 31 7.8 1 12.6 14.6
4 Nov 2018 CLE KC @ CLE 37:21 1 8 8 0 9 78 8.7 2 25.1 29.6
28 Oct 2018 CLE CLE @ PIT 18:33 2 0 0 0 2 16 8 0 2.6 3.6
21 Oct 2018 CLE CLE @ TB 23:26 1 -4 -4 0 4 23 5.8 0 3.9 5.9
14 Oct 2018 CLE LAC @ CLE 38:14 2 36 18 0 4 73 18.3 0 12.9 14.9
7 Oct 2018 CLE BAL @ CLE 9:12 5 35 7 0 1 7 7 0 4.7 5.2
30 Sep 2018 CLE CLE @ OAK 42:45 2 11 5.5 0 4 45 11.3 0 15.6 17.6
20 Sep 2018 CLE NYJ @ CLE 17:21 2 9 4.5 0 2 24 12 0 4.3 5.3
16 Sep 2018 CLE CLE @ NO 18:21 3 3 1 0 2 7 3.5 0 2 3
9 Sep 2018 CLE PIT @ CLE 21:21 5 17 3.4 0 1 8 8 0 3 3.5

I would assume Johnson is going to be chalk this week but I’ll be a part of rocking that chalk. We finally got to see what Johnson can do in this offense last week as he went nuts on the Chiefs. I actually used Johnson last week just to fit Adam Thielen and Todd Gurely, not having the expectation that Johnson would out-score them both. The best part of last week is the offense was actually scheming plays for him. His targets weren’t a fluke where Baker Mayfield was running for his life and happened to hit a safety valve. These were plays to utilize Johnson’s talents. They should once again be on full display against a Falcons team that allows the most receptions to running backs in football. At just $4,700, count me all the way in.

Wide Receiver

Next game:

OAK @ ARI

Time:

Sun, 18th Nov, 04:05PM ET

Odds:

ARI -4.0 / O/U 41.0

WR

Larry Fitzgerald

Arizona Cardinals

Salary: 5,900 5,600
FPPG: 8.30 10.90
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
ARI @ KC Sun, 11 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,800 8.00 5,400 11.00
SF @ ARI Sun, 28 Oct 2018, 4:25PM ET 5,800 22.20 4,400 29.20
DEN @ ARI Thu, 18 Oct 2018, 8:20PM ET 5,800 12.00 4,300 14.00
ARI @ MIN Sun, 14 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 6,200 6.40 4,500 8.90
ARI @ SF Sun, 7 Oct 2018, 4:25PM ET 6,400 4.50 4,700 5.50
SEA @ ARI Sun, 30 Sep 2018, 4:05PM ET 6,400 4.30 5,000 5.80
CHI @ ARI Sun, 23 Sep 2018, 4:25PM ET 6,700 1.90 5,400 2.90
ARI @ LAR Sun, 16 Sep 2018, 4:05PM ET 7,100 4.30 6,000 5.80
WSH @ ARI Sun, 9 Sep 2018, 4:25PM ET 7,300 11.10 6,600 14.60
ARI @ SEA Sun, 31 Dec 2017, 4:25PM ET N/a 9.50 N/a 13.50
Season Team ReR ReTa ReYd ReYd/G ReTD Yd/Ta
2018 ARI 40 65 407 45.2 2 6.26
2017 ARI 109 161 1156 72.3 6 7.18
Date Team Game Score Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
11 Nov 2018 ARI ARI @ KC 14:26 6 50 8.3 0 8 11
28 Oct 2018 ARI SF @ ARI 15:18 8 102 12.8 1 22.2 29.2
18 Oct 2018 ARI DEN @ ARI 45:10 4 40 10 1 12 14
14 Oct 2018 ARI ARI @ MIN 17:27 5 39 7.8 0 6.4 8.9
7 Oct 2018 ARI ARI @ SF 28:18 2 35 17.5 0 4.5 5.5
30 Sep 2018 ARI SEA @ ARI 20:17 3 28 9.3 0 4.3 5.8
23 Sep 2018 ARI CHI @ ARI 16:14 2 9 4.5 0 1.9 2.9
16 Sep 2018 ARI ARI @ LAR 0:34 3 28 9.3 0 4.3 5.8
9 Sep 2018 ARI WSH @ ARI 24:6 7 76 10.9 0 11.1 14.6
31 Dec 2017 ARI ARI @ SEA 26:24 8 55 6.9 0 9.5 13.5

This isn’t just going after one of my favorite football players of all time, there’s legitimate reasons to play Larry Fitzgerald this week. First, Mike McCoy is no longer there and in his first game with McCoy out the door, Fitzgerald saw 12 targets and had a monster game of 8/102/1. That game finished at a score of 18-15 for 33 total points and there’s a reasonable chance that the Chiefs will score that money on their own. Arizona is going to have to try and match them score for score which means a lot of Fitzgerald and his 23 percent target share. The old GOAT showed he still has plenty of gas left in the tank and only needs five receptions for 60 yards and a touchdown to pay off his tag. The touchdown could be iffy but the five receptions for 60 yards is setting the bar pretty low in this style of game. Fitzgerald will continue to be the go-to target for Josh Rosen and is reasonable cash game play this week.

Next game:

HOU @ WSH

Time:

Sun, 18th Nov, 01:00PM ET

Odds:

WSH +2.5 / O/U 42.5

WR

Maurice Harris

Washington Redskins

Salary: 5,500 4,500
FPPG: 6.97 8.30
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
WSH @ TB Sun, 11 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,900 8.10 3,900 10.60
ATL @ WSH Sun, 4 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 4,700 17.40 3,300 25.40
WSH @ NYG Sun, 28 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 4,900 3.00 3,300 4.00
DAL @ WSH Sun, 21 Oct 2018, 4:25PM ET 4,500 3.70 3,000 5.20
CAR @ WSH Sun, 14 Oct 2018, 1:00PM ET 4,500 3.40 3,000 4.90
WSH @ NO Mon, 8 Oct 2018, 8:15PM ET 4,500 6.20 3,000 7.70
ARI @ WSH Sun, 17 Dec 2017, 1:00PM ET N/a 0 N/a 0
WSH @ DAL Thu, 30 Nov 2017, 8:25PM ET N/a 0 N/a 0
NYG @ WSH Thu, 23 Nov 2017, 8:30PM ET N/a 2.20 N/a 3.20
MIN @ WSH Sun, 12 Nov 2017, 1:00PM ET N/a 12.00 N/a 13.00
Season Team ReR ReTa ReYd ReYd/G ReTD Yd/Ta
2018 WSH 26 34 278 39.7 0 8.18
2017 WSH 4 6 62 10.3 1 10.33
Date Team Game Score Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
11 Nov 2018 WSH WSH @ TB 16:3 5 52 10.4 0 8.1 10.6
4 Nov 2018 WSH ATL @ WSH 38:14 10 124 12.4 0 17.4 25.4
28 Oct 2018 WSH WSH @ NYG 20:13 2 20 10 0 3 4
21 Oct 2018 WSH DAL @ WSH 17:20 3 22 7.3 0 3.7 5.2
14 Oct 2018 WSH CAR @ WSH 17:23 3 13 4.3 0 3.4 4.9
8 Oct 2018 WSH WSH @ NO 19:43 3 47 15.7 0 6.2 7.7
17 Dec 2017 WSH ARI @ WSH 15:20 0 0 0 0 0 0
30 Nov 2017 WSH WSH @ DAL 14:38 0 0 0 0 0 0
23 Nov 2017 WSH NYG @ WSH 10:20 2 12 6 0 2.2 3.2
12 Nov 2017 WSH MIN @ WSH 38:30 2 50 25 1 12 13

I’m not terribly excited to buy a part of the Washington offense but the price and matchup might just be too good to pass up in cash games. The Redskins have seen both their offensive line and receiving corps decimated by injuries meaning two things. First, Alex Smith is going to have to get the ball out quick before the pass rush gets the better of the backups protecting him. The second is someone has to catch the ball in this offense and Harris in the slot might be the best bet in this game. The Bucs have given up 10 touchdowns to slot receivers and we saw last week that Smith went to Harris repeatedly with 12 targets. I’m not sure I expect another 100 yard game but if he turns into a popular cash option and he does go off at this price, you could be behind the eight ball.

Tight End

Next game:

PHI @ NO

Time:

Sun, 18th Nov, 04:25PM ET

Odds:

NO -7.5 / O/U 54.5

TE

Benjamin Watson

New Orleans Saints

Salary: 5,600 3,500
FPPG: 6.85 7.60
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
NO @ CIN Sun, 11 Nov 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,900 0.60 3,400 1.10
LAR @ NO Sun, 4 Nov 2018, 4:25PM ET 5,400 13.70 3,200 15.20
NO @ BAL Sun, 21 Oct 2018, 4:05PM ET 5,200 13.30 3,000 16.30
WSH @ NO Mon, 8 Oct 2018, 8:15PM ET 5,200 5.00 3,200 7.00
NO @ NYG Sun, 30 Sep 2018, 4:25PM ET 5,200 2.80 3,300 3.30
NO @ ATL Sun, 23 Sep 2018, 1:00PM ET 4,900 9.60 3,100 12.10
CLE @ NO Sun, 16 Sep 2018, 1:00PM ET 5,100 3.40 3,400 4.90
TB @ NO Sun, 9 Sep 2018, 1:00PM ET 4,900 6.40 3,100 8.40
CIN @ BAL Sun, 31 Dec 2017, 4:25PM ET N/a 9.60 N/a 13.10
IND @ BAL Sat, 23 Dec 2017, 4:30PM ET N/a 6.50 N/a 9.00
Season Team ReR ReTa ReYd ReYd/G ReTD Yd/Ta
2018 NO 27 34 293 32.6 2 8.62
2017 BAL 61 79 522 32.6 4 6.61
Date Team Game Score Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
11 Nov 2018 NO NO @ CIN 51:14 1 1 1 0 0.6 1.1
4 Nov 2018 NO LAR @ NO 35:45 3 62 20.7 1 13.7 15.2
21 Oct 2018 NO NO @ BAL 24:23 6 43 7.2 1 13.3 16.3
8 Oct 2018 NO WSH @ NO 19:43 4 30 7.5 0 5 7
30 Sep 2018 NO NO @ NYG 33:18 1 23 23 0 2.8 3.3
23 Sep 2018 NO NO @ ATL 43:37 5 71 14.2 0 9.6 12.1
16 Sep 2018 NO CLE @ NO 18:21 3 19 6.3 0 3.4 4.9
9 Sep 2018 NO TB @ NO 48:40 4 44 11 0 6.4 8.4
31 Dec 2017 BAL CIN @ BAL 31:27 7 61 8.7 0 9.6 13.1
23 Dec 2017 BAL IND @ BAL 16:23 5 40 8 0 6.5 9

If Jordan Reed sits, Vernon Davis is going to be one of the chalkiest players on the slate and I would likely use him as well. If not, take a look at Ben Watson. The goose egg against Minnesota does scare you a little bit but that was a very weird game for the Saints from a game flow perspective. It’s not likely to replicate and Watson has seen at least three targets in every other game this season. With the signing of Dez Bryant, people may overlook Watson but the Bengals have given up the second most points to tight ends this year. That includes 53 receptions, 602 yards and five touchdowns. Watson has a 11.5 share of the targets which isn’t an overwhelming amount but it’s good enough in this matchup with this kind of offense beside him.