Tampa Bay Vs. Chicago: Week 5 Thursday Night Showdown Slate GPP Targets

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It is a matchup between two elite defenses at Soldier Field tonight with a road favorite and a low over/under total of 44 points. We know totals have been hitting the over at a near 60% clip this season, but with a battered Buccaneers roster on short rest, I don’t think we can expect a ton of fireworks on Thursday night. This is actually another slate where I definitely think we can fade the quarterbacks in the MVP or Captain spot in our showdown lineups.

MVP/Captain: Again you can play one of the quarterbacks, but nearly every showdown slate has one of the two quarterbacks as the chalk. I think this is a slate to differentiate by putting one of the skill position players in the game. If you want to play one of the QBs, I think Brady has a safer floor but Foles may give you some leverage at a slightly cheaper price and a higher chance of playing catch up in this game.

Next game:

TB @ NYG

Time:

Mon, 2nd Nov, 08:15PM ET

Odds:

TB -10.5 / O/U 48.0

RB

Ronald Jones II

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Salary: 6,100 6,200
FPPG: 13.68 16.60
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
TB @ LV Sun, 25 Oct 2020, 4:05PM ET 6,100 10.10 6,200 10.60
GB @ TB Sun, 18 Oct 2020, 4:25PM ET 5,800 25.10 6,000 29.10
TB @ CHI Thu, 8 Oct 2020, 8:20PM ET 5,800 14.00 5,800 18.50
LAC @ TB Sun, 4 Oct 2020, 1:00PM ET 5,600 15.80 4,700 21.80
TB @ DEN Sun, 27 Sep 2020, 4:25PM ET 5,600 8.30 5,000 9.30
CAR @ TB Sun, 20 Sep 2020, 1:00PM ET 5,900 9.70 5,200 10.70
TB @ NO Sun, 13 Sep 2020, 4:25PM ET 5,700 9.20 5,200 10.20
ATL @ TB Sun, 29 Dec 2019, 1:00PM ET 6,200 10.60 4,900 15.60
HOU @ TB Sat, 21 Dec 2019, 1:00PM ET 5,500 18.40 4,400 19.90
TB @ DET Sun, 15 Dec 2019, 1:00PM ET 5,800 5.40 4,600 5.90
Season Team RuAtt RuYd/G RuTD RuYd/R Avg RecR RecTa RecYd/G RecTD
2020 TB 97 78.7 3 4.9 17 25 14 0
2019 TB 172 45.3 6 4.2 31 40 19.3 0
Date Team Game Score RuAtt RuYd RuAvg RuTD Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
25 Oct 2020 TB TB @ LV 45:20 13 34 2.6 1 1 2 2 0 10.1 10.6
18 Oct 2020 TB GB @ TB 10:38 23 113 4.9 2 2 8 4 0 25.1 29.1
8 Oct 2020 TB TB @ CHI 19:20 17 106 6.2 0 3 19 6.3 0 14 18.5
4 Oct 2020 TB LAC @ TB 31:38 20 111 5.6 0 6 17 2.8 0 15.8 21.8
27 Sep 2020 TB TB @ DEN 28:10 13 53 4.1 0 2 20 10 0 8.3 9.3
20 Sep 2020 TB CAR @ TB 17:31 7 23 3.3 1 2 4 2 0 9.7 10.7
13 Sep 2020 TB TB @ NO 23:34 17 66 3.9 0 2 16 8 0 9.2 10.2
29 Dec 2019 TB ATL @ TB 28:22 11 106 9.6 0 2 10 5 0 10.6 15.6
21 Dec 2019 TB HOU @ TB 23:20 14 77 5.5 1 3 32 10.7 0 18.4 19.9
15 Dec 2019 TB TB @ DET 38:17 11 23 2.1 0 1 26 26 0 5.4 5.9

Welcome to the RoJo show this week with no Shady McCoy and no Leonard Fournette. I like the Bucs to lean on Jones tonight in a matchup where the Bears defense has been very good against wide receivers so far. Jones has shown he can be a physical runner while being able to catch some passes out of the backfield, although we will see how much Ke’shawn Vaughn plays a role tonight. I am actually not super high on Vaughn today and expect RoJo to take a bulk of the work.

Next game:

TB @ NYG

Time:

Mon, 2nd Nov, 08:15PM ET

Odds:

TB -10.5 / O/U 48.0

WR

Mike Evans

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Salary: 7,300 6,200
FPPG: 12.60 15.50
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
TB @ LV Sun, 25 Oct 2020, 4:05PM ET 7,300 4.70 6,200 5.70
GB @ TB Sun, 18 Oct 2020, 4:25PM ET 7,600 1.50 6,900 2.00
TB @ CHI Thu, 8 Oct 2020, 8:20PM ET 7,500 12.60 6,600 15.10
LAC @ TB Sun, 4 Oct 2020, 1:00PM ET 7,400 21.70 6,400 28.20
TB @ DEN Sun, 27 Sep 2020, 4:25PM ET 7,700 13.20 6,800 14.20
CAR @ TB Sun, 20 Sep 2020, 1:00PM ET 7,400 19.90 6,400 26.40
TB @ NO Sun, 13 Sep 2020, 4:25PM ET 7,500 6.70 6,900 7.20
IND @ TB Sun, 8 Dec 2019, 1:00PM ET 7,700 12.60 7,200 13.10
TB @ JAC Sun, 1 Dec 2019, 1:00PM ET 7,700 7.30 6,900 9.30
TB @ ATL Sun, 24 Nov 2019, 1:00PM ET 8,000 7.00 7,300 9.00
Season Team ReR ReTa ReYd ReYd/G ReTD Yd/Ta
2020 TB 23 37 281 46.8 6 7.59
2019 TB 67 118 1 89 8 0.01
Date Team Game Score Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
25 Oct 2020 TB TB @ LV 45:20 2 37 18.5 0 4.7 5.7
18 Oct 2020 TB GB @ TB 10:38 1 10 10 0 1.5 2
8 Oct 2020 TB TB @ CHI 19:20 5 41 8.2 1 12.6 15.1
4 Oct 2020 TB LAC @ TB 31:38 7 122 17.4 1 21.7 28.2
27 Sep 2020 TB TB @ DEN 28:10 2 2 1 2 13.2 14.2
20 Sep 2020 TB CAR @ TB 17:31 7 104 14.9 1 19.9 26.4
13 Sep 2020 TB TB @ NO 23:34 1 2 2 1 6.7 7.2
8 Dec 2019 TB IND @ TB 35:38 1 61 61 1 12.6 13.1
1 Dec 2019 TB TB @ JAC 28:11 4 53 13.3 0 7.3 9.3
24 Nov 2019 TB TB @ ATL 35:22 4 50 12.5 0 7 9

If you are going to play someone in the Tampa Bay passing game tonight, I like Mike Evans with no Chris Godwin in the lineup. The last two times Godwin missed a game, Evans went for 7 catches on 10 targets for 104 yards and a touchdown against Carolina and 7 catches on 8 targets for 122 yards and a touchdown against the Chargers. This projects to be a more competitive game, and even though the Bears have yet to allow a touchdown to a wide receiver this season, Evans has five on the year and is a clear target for Brady in the redzone.

Next game:

CHI @ LAR

Time:

Mon, 26th Oct, 08:15PM ET

Odds:

CHI +6.0 / O/U 45.0

WR

Allen Robinson II

Chicago Bears

Salary: 6,800 7,000
FPPG: 13.22 17.60
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
CHI @ CAR Sun, 18 Oct 2020, 1:00PM ET 7,000 7.80 7,000 10.30
TB @ CHI Thu, 8 Oct 2020, 8:20PM ET 7,100 14.00 6,700 19.00
IND @ CHI Sun, 4 Oct 2020, 4:25PM ET 7,600 19.60 6,700 26.10
CHI @ ATL Sun, 27 Sep 2020, 1:00PM ET 6,900 23.30 6,200 31.30
NYG @ CHI Sun, 20 Sep 2020, 1:00PM ET 7,000 4.80 6,400 6.30
CHI @ DET Sun, 13 Sep 2020, 1:00PM ET 7,200 9.80 6,500 12.30
CHI @ MIN Sun, 29 Dec 2019, 1:00PM ET 7,800 11.80 7,200 16.30
KC @ CHI Sun, 22 Dec 2019, 8:20PM ET 7,800 8.30 6,700 11.30
CHI @ GB Sun, 15 Dec 2019, 1:00PM ET 8,000 16.00 6,800 22.50
DAL @ CHI Thu, 5 Dec 2019, 8:20PM ET 7,700 19.30 6,500 21.80
Season Team ReR ReTa ReYd ReYd/G ReTD Yd/Ta
2020 CHI 40 66 474 79 2 7.18
2019 CHI 98 154 1 71.7 7 0.01
Date Team Game Score Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
18 Oct 2020 CHI CHI @ CAR 23:16 5 53 10.6 0 7.8 10.3
8 Oct 2020 CHI TB @ CHI 19:20 10 90 9 0 14 19
4 Oct 2020 CHI IND @ CHI 19:11 7 101 14.4 1 19.6 26.1
27 Sep 2020 CHI CHI @ ATL 30:26 10 123 12.3 1 23.3 31.3
20 Sep 2020 CHI NYG @ CHI 13:17 3 33 11 0 4.8 6.3
13 Sep 2020 CHI CHI @ DET 27:23 5 74 14.8 0 9.8 12.3
29 Dec 2019 CHI CHI @ MIN 21:19 9 71 7.9 0 11.8 16.3
22 Dec 2019 CHI KC @ CHI 26:3 6 53 8.8 0 8.3 11.3
15 Dec 2019 CHI CHI @ GB 13:21 7 125 17.9 0 16 22.5
5 Dec 2019 CHI DAL @ CHI 24:31 5 48 9.6 2 19.3 21.8

AR12 has really benefited from Foles taking over as quarterback with 10 catches on 13 targets for 123 yards and a touchdown against Atlanta and 7 catches on 10 targets for 101 yards and a touchdown against the Colts. Foles is looking for Robinson in all situations and even though the Bucs do have an excellent defense, we can expect Robinson to get his chances when the Bears hit the redzone.

Flex Positions: Again, either quarterback is a fine play here but if you want to differentiate in a largescale GPP, let’s take a look at some other skill position players who can set your lineup apart.

Next game:

TB @ NYG

Time:

Mon, 2nd Nov, 08:15PM ET

Odds:

TB -10.5 / O/U 48.0

WR

Scotty Miller

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Salary: 5,200 3,700
FPPG: 8.06 9.70
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
TB @ LV Sun, 25 Oct 2020, 4:05PM ET 5,200 19.90 3,700 25.90
GB @ TB Sun, 18 Oct 2020, 4:25PM ET 5,200 1.10 4,200 1.60
LAC @ TB Sun, 4 Oct 2020, 1:00PM ET 5,000 16.80 4,100 19.30
TB @ DEN Sun, 27 Sep 2020, 4:25PM ET 5,000 9.80 4,000 11.30
CAR @ TB Sun, 20 Sep 2020, 1:00PM ET 5,200 2.20 4,100 3.20
TB @ NO Sun, 13 Sep 2020, 4:25PM ET 4,500 10.40 4,000 12.90
TB @ DET Sun, 15 Dec 2019, 1:00PM ET 4,700 12.40 3,000 13.90
TB @ ATL Sun, 24 Nov 2019, 1:00PM ET 4,900 1.10 3,100 1.60
NO @ TB Sun, 17 Nov 2019, 1:00PM ET 4,500 9.10 3,000 11.10
ARI @ TB Sun, 10 Nov 2019, 1:00PM ET 4,500 4.30 3,000 5.30
Season Team ReR ReTa ReYd ReYd/G ReTD Yd/Ta
2020 TB 16 23 256 42.7 1 11.13
2019 TB 13 26 200 20 1 7.69
Date Team Game Score Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
25 Oct 2020 TB TB @ LV 45:20 6 109 18.2 1 19.9 25.9
18 Oct 2020 TB GB @ TB 10:38 1 6 6 0 1.1 1.6
4 Oct 2020 TB LAC @ TB 31:38 5 83 16.6 1 16.8 19.3
27 Sep 2020 TB TB @ DEN 28:10 3 83 27.7 0 9.8 11.3
20 Sep 2020 TB CAR @ TB 17:31 2 11 5.5 0 2.2 3.2
13 Sep 2020 TB TB @ NO 23:34 5 73 14.6 0 10.4 12.9
15 Dec 2019 TB TB @ DET 38:17 3 49 16.3 1 12.4 13.9
24 Nov 2019 TB TB @ ATL 35:22 1 8 8 0 1.1 1.6
17 Nov 2019 TB NO @ TB 34:17 4 71 17.8 0 9.1 11.1
10 Nov 2019 TB ARI @ TB 27:30 2 33 16.5 0 4.3 5.3

If he plays, Miller has been a fine replacement for Godwin in the slot and we all know how much Brady loves his quick slot receivers. There is a very real chance that the Bears get to Brady with their elite pass rush so TB12 will be looking to dump off quick passes to his running backs, tight ends, and slot receivers. Miller has performed admirably the last two weeks with at least 80 yards receiving in both games, and a touchdown last week as well. Miller will most likely be highly owned but he is a fine floor play tonight.

Next game:

TB @ NYG

Time:

Mon, 2nd Nov, 08:15PM ET

Odds:

TB -10.5 / O/U 48.0

TE

Cameron Brate

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Salary: 4,900 2,700
FPPG: 3.63 3.00
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
TB @ LV Sun, 25 Oct 2020, 4:05PM ET 4,900 1.30 2,700 1.80
GB @ TB Sun, 18 Oct 2020, 4:25PM ET 4,800 0.80 3,500 1.30
TB @ CHI Thu, 8 Oct 2020, 8:20PM ET 4,700 6.90 3,000 9.40
LAC @ TB Sun, 4 Oct 2020, 1:00PM ET 4,000 6.80 2,500 7.30
TB @ NO Sun, 13 Sep 2020, 4:25PM ET 4,400 0 3,000 0
ATL @ TB Sun, 29 Dec 2019, 1:00PM ET 4,900 6.70 3,200 7.20
HOU @ TB Sat, 21 Dec 2019, 1:00PM ET 5,000 2.70 3,500 3.70
TB @ DET Sun, 15 Dec 2019, 1:00PM ET 5,200 4.80 3,400 6.30
IND @ TB Sun, 8 Dec 2019, 1:00PM ET 4,600 11.00 2,900 13.00
TB @ JAC Sun, 1 Dec 2019, 1:00PM ET 5,000 1.00 3,100 1.50
Season Team ReR ReTa ReYd ReYd/G ReTD Yd/Ta
2020 TB 7 9 50 8.3 1 5.56
2019 TB 36 55 311 19.4 4 5.65
Date Team Game Score Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
25 Oct 2020 TB TB @ LV 45:20 1 8 8 0 1.3 1.8
18 Oct 2020 TB GB @ TB 10:38 1 3 3 0 0.8 1.3
8 Oct 2020 TB TB @ CHI 19:20 5 44 8.8 0 6.9 9.4
4 Oct 2020 TB LAC @ TB 31:38 1 3 3 1 6.8 7.3
13 Sep 2020 TB TB @ NO 23:34 0 0 0 0 0 0
29 Dec 2019 TB ATL @ TB 28:22 1 2 2 1 6.7 7.2
21 Dec 2019 TB HOU @ TB 23:20 2 17 8.5 0 2.7 3.7
15 Dec 2019 TB TB @ DET 38:17 3 33 11 0 4.8 6.3
8 Dec 2019 TB IND @ TB 35:38 4 30 7.5 1 11 13
1 Dec 2019 TB TB @ JAC 28:11 1 5 5 0 1 1.5

We also know Brady loves his tight ends and while the instant public reaction to O.J. Howard’s season ending injury was to play Gronk, Brate was who Brady found in the endzone last week. I think Brate will also be lower owned and I can see him getting free for a touchdown given the Bears’ ability to cover wide receivers in the endzone.

Next game:

TB @ NYG

Time:

Mon, 2nd Nov, 08:15PM ET

Odds:

TB -10.5 / O/U 48.0

PK

Ryan Succop

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Salary: 9,500 3,000
FPPG: 8.83 8.80
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
TB @ LV Sun, 25 Oct 2020, 4:05PM ET N/a 9.00 N/a 0
GB @ TB Sun, 18 Oct 2020, 4:25PM ET N/a 10.00 N/a 0
TB @ CHI Thu, 8 Oct 2020, 8:20PM ET N/a 10.00 N/a 0
LAC @ TB Sun, 4 Oct 2020, 1:00PM ET N/a 8.00 N/a 0
TB @ DEN Sun, 27 Sep 2020, 4:25PM ET N/a 5.00 N/a 0
CAR @ TB Sun, 20 Sep 2020, 1:00PM ET N/a 7.00 N/a 0
TB @ NO Sun, 13 Sep 2020, 4:25PM ET N/a 5.00 N/a 0
HOU @ TEN Sun, 15 Dec 2019, 1:00PM ET N/a 3.00 N/a 0
TEN @ OAK Sun, 8 Dec 2019, 4:25PM ET N/a 6.00 N/a 0
TEN @ IND Sun, 1 Dec 2019, 1:00PM ET N/a 7.00 N/a 0
Date Team Game Score
25 Oct 2020 TB TB @ LV 45:20
18 Oct 2020 TB GB @ TB 10:38
8 Oct 2020 TB TB @ CHI 19:20
4 Oct 2020 TB LAC @ TB 31:38
27 Sep 2020 TB TB @ DEN 28:10
20 Sep 2020 TB CAR @ TB 17:31
13 Sep 2020 TB TB @ NO 23:34
15 Dec 2019 TEN HOU @ TEN 24:21
8 Dec 2019 TEN TEN @ OAK 42:21
1 Dec 2019 TEN TEN @ IND 31:17

Nobody ever likes to roster kickers but look, when there are two good defense playing each other, more often than not, redzone trips turn into field goal opportunities. I see the Bucs getting to the redzone more than the Bears, so I love Succop’s chances of having a big game. I always like to throw in a few lineups with kickers and positively correlate those plays with a quarterback-receiver stack form the same team.

Next game:

CHI @ LAR

Time:

Mon, 26th Oct, 08:15PM ET

Odds:

CHI +6.0 / O/U 45.0

WR

Cordarrelle Patterson

Chicago Bears

Salary: 4,700 3,200
FPPG: 2.93 3.60
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
CHI @ CAR Sun, 18 Oct 2020, 1:00PM ET 4,700 1.40 3,200 1.90
TB @ CHI Thu, 8 Oct 2020, 8:20PM ET 4,700 6.00 3,400 7.50
IND @ CHI Sun, 4 Oct 2020, 4:25PM ET 4,800 1.00 3,700 1.50
CHI @ ATL Sun, 27 Sep 2020, 1:00PM ET 4,800 1.30 3,600 1.30
NYG @ CHI Sun, 20 Sep 2020, 1:00PM ET 5,000 4.30 3,400 5.30
CHI @ DET Sun, 13 Sep 2020, 1:00PM ET 5,000 3.60 3,400 4.10
CHI @ MIN Sun, 29 Dec 2019, 1:00PM ET 4,500 1.40 3,000 1.40
KC @ CHI Sun, 22 Dec 2019, 8:20PM ET 4,500 2.60 3,000 3.10
CHI @ GB Sun, 15 Dec 2019, 1:00PM ET 4,500 1.10 3,000 1.60
DAL @ CHI Thu, 5 Dec 2019, 8:20PM ET 4,500 3.30 3,000 3.80
Season Team ReR ReTa ReYd ReYd/G ReTD Yd/Ta
2020 CHI 8 9 66 11 0 7.33
2019 CHI 11 17 83 5.2 0 4.88
Date Team Game Score Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
18 Oct 2020 CHI CHI @ CAR 23:16 1 8 8 0 1.4 1.9
8 Oct 2020 CHI TB @ CHI 19:20 3 38 12.7 0 6 7.5
4 Oct 2020 CHI IND @ CHI 19:11 1 0 0 0 1 1.5
27 Sep 2020 CHI CHI @ ATL 30:26 0 0 0 0 1.3 1.3
20 Sep 2020 CHI NYG @ CHI 13:17 2 8 4 0 4.3 5.3
13 Sep 2020 CHI CHI @ DET 27:23 1 12 12 0 3.6 4.1
29 Dec 2019 CHI CHI @ MIN 21:19 0 0 0 0 1.4 1.4
22 Dec 2019 CHI KC @ CHI 26:3 1 5 5 0 2.6 3.1
15 Dec 2019 CHI CHI @ GB 13:21 1 6 6 0 1.1 1.6
5 Dec 2019 CHI DAL @ CHI 24:31 1 33 33 0 3.3 3.8

Patterson has game-breaking potential every time he touches the ball, it is just that he does not touch the ball very often. If Matt Nagy can learn how to utilize him correctly, Patterson may be worthy of a dart throw in a few lineups tonight. The other name who has game breaking ability is Ted Ginn. He has not had much work yet this season but at his price, he only needs one long pass and touchdown to return value tonight.