NFL Week 9 Main Slate GPP Targets

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The Optimizer loved the Chiefs last week and for good reason! Mahomes went off for 5 touchdowns and a Chiefs stack with Dalvin Cook found its way to a ton of winning lineups. This week? The Optimizer loves the Bills as they welcome the Seahawks to town in a game with a total of 55 points which is easily the highest on the board. No weather issues this week that stand out, although one game that stands out as a good play in Jacksonville, looks like it may have some rain to deal with. Onwards to Week 9!

Quarterbacks: The Bills/Seahawks game is going to be popular but players should be split pretty evenly between Wilson and Allen. The Jaguars/Texans game should also be popular but Watson just grades out well with the Texans having an implied total of over 28 points. 

Next game:

BUF @ SF

Time:

Mon, 7th Dec, 08:15PM ET

Odds:

BUF -1.0 / O/U 47.0

QB

Josh Allen

Buffalo Bills

Salary: 8,600 7,100
FPPG: 24.17 26.00
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
LAC @ BUF Sun, 29 Nov 2020, 1:00PM ET 8,600 16.48 7,600 17.48
BUF @ ARI Sun, 15 Nov 2020, 4:05PM ET 8,700 28.86 7,500 29.36
SEA @ BUF Sun, 8 Nov 2020, 1:00PM ET 8,200 36.00 7,000 39.00
NE @ BUF Sun, 1 Nov 2020, 1:00PM ET 8,200 13.46 7,000 13.46
BUF @ NYJ Sun, 25 Oct 2020, 1:00PM ET 8,800 16.38 7,700 20.38
KC @ BUF Mon, 19 Oct 2020, 5:00PM ET 8,600 16.08 6,800 16.08
BUF @ TEN Tue, 13 Oct 2020, 7:00PM ET 8,400 18.32 7,700 18.32
BUF @ LV Sun, 4 Oct 2020, 4:25PM ET 9,000 25.42 7,300 25.42
LAR @ BUF Sun, 27 Sep 2020, 1:00PM ET 8,100 32.24 6,900 36.24
BUF @ MIA Sun, 20 Sep 2020, 1:00PM ET 8,200 34.48 6,700 37.48
Season Team PaYd/G PaTD Pa QB Rating PaYd/Pa Avg
2020 BUF 304.6 22 102.3 7.8
2019 BUF 372 0 69.5 5.7
Date Team Game Score Comp/Att PaYd PaTD PaInt RuAtt RuYd RuTD FD FPts DK FPts
29 Nov 2020 BUF LAC @ BUF 17:27 18/24 157 1 1 9 32 1 16.48 17.48
15 Nov 2020 BUF BUF @ ARI 30:32 32/49 284 2 2 7 38 0 28.86 29.36
8 Nov 2020 BUF SEA @ BUF 34:44 31/38 415 3 0 7 14 1 36 39
1 Nov 2020 BUF NE @ BUF 21:24 11/18 154 0 1 10 23 1 13.46 13.46
25 Oct 2020 BUF BUF @ NYJ 18:10 30/43 307 0 0 11 61 0 16.38 20.38
19 Oct 2020 BUF KC @ BUF 26:17 14/27 122 2 1 8 42 0 16.08 16.08
13 Oct 2020 BUF BUF @ TEN 16:42 26/41 263 2 2 4 18 0 18.32 18.32
4 Oct 2020 BUF BUF @ LV 30:23 24/34 288 2 0 3 -1 1 25.42 25.42
27 Sep 2020 BUF LAR @ BUF 32:35 24/33 311 4 1 4 8 1 32.24 36.24
20 Sep 2020 BUF BUF @ MIA 31:28 24/35 417 4 0 4 18 0 34.48 37.48

This week the Bills to face the visiting Seahawks’ secondary, a unit that still continues to bleed yardage to quarterbacks through the air and are still allowing almost 50 more pass yards per game than the Falcons (!). This Seahawks team allowed Nick Mullens to march down the field over and over last week with no George Kittle or Deebo Samuel. Jamal Adams is back but the defense was already bad with him in the lineup. The conflicting sides here are that the Bills have a bad run offense and Seattle a good run defense, so expect Allen to have to air it out. A full game stack is absolutely in play with Allen and Diggs, and you can bring it back with Lockett or Metcalf, or even DeeJay Dallas to differentiate.

Next game:

IND @ HOU

Time:

Sun, 6th Dec, 01:00PM ET

Odds:

HOU +3.5 / O/U 51.0

QB

Deshaun Watson

Houston Texans

Salary: 8,200 7,500
FPPG: 23.85 25.50
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
HOU @ DET Thu, 26 Nov 2020, 12:30PM ET 8,700 33.12 7,400 36.12
NE @ HOU Sun, 22 Nov 2020, 1:00PM ET 7,700 31.36 6,500 34.36
HOU @ CLE Sun, 15 Nov 2020, 1:00PM ET 8,300 14.12 6,900 14.12
HOU @ JAC Sun, 8 Nov 2020, 1:00PM ET 8,300 24.24 7,100 24.24
GB @ HOU Sun, 25 Oct 2020, 1:00PM ET 8,000 24.16 6,800 27.16
HOU @ TEN Sun, 18 Oct 2020, 1:00PM ET 8,200 32.00 7,000 35.00
JAC @ HOU Sun, 11 Oct 2020, 1:00PM ET 7,900 26.86 6,900 29.86
MIN @ HOU Sun, 4 Oct 2020, 1:00PM ET 7,800 20.90 6,600 23.90
HOU @ PIT Sun, 27 Sep 2020, 1:00PM ET 8,000 18.06 6,500 18.06
BAL @ HOU Sun, 20 Sep 2020, 4:25PM ET 7,900 15.70 6,400 15.70
Season Team PaYd/G PaTD Pa QB Rating PaYd/Pa Avg
2020 HOU 317.6 24 112.5 8.8
2019 HOU 363.5 3 104.6 8.2
Date Team Game Score Comp/Att PaYd PaTD PaInt RuAtt RuYd RuTD FD FPts DK FPts
26 Nov 2020 HOU HOU @ DET 41:25 17/25 318 4 0 8 24 0 33.12 36.12
22 Nov 2020 HOU NE @ HOU 20:27 28/37 344 2 0 6 36 1 31.36 34.36
15 Nov 2020 HOU HOU @ CLE 7:10 20/30 163 1 0 8 36 0 14.12 14.12
8 Nov 2020 HOU HOU @ JAC 27:25 19/32 281 2 0 10 50 0 24.24 24.24
25 Oct 2020 HOU GB @ HOU 35:20 29/39 309 2 0 7 38 0 24.16 27.16
18 Oct 2020 HOU HOU @ TEN 36:42 28/37 335 4 0 4 26 0 32 35
11 Oct 2020 HOU JAC @ HOU 14:30 25/35 359 3 2 2 25 0 26.86 29.86
4 Oct 2020 HOU MIN @ HOU 31:23 20/33 300 2 0 5 9 0 20.9 23.9
27 Sep 2020 HOU HOU @ PIT 21:28 19/27 264 2 1 1 5 0 18.06 18.06
20 Sep 2020 HOU BAL @ HOU 33:16 25/36 275 1 1 5 17 0 15.7 15.7

Watson is going to be popular this week mostly because of what he did last game against the Jags when he put up 359 yards and 3 touchdowns. Well, the Jaguars defense has not gotten any better. A couple things to look out for here is the weather in Jacksonville is supposed to be rainy, which could limit Watson’s ceiling. Another is that the Jags are starting rookie quarterback Jake Luton, which could go poorly for this offense. Read that as, the Texans could get up and pound the ball with David Johnson in the second half.

Next game:

NE @ LAC

Time:

Sun, 6th Dec, 04:25PM ET

Odds:

LAC +1.0 / O/U 47.0

QB

Justin Herbert

Los Angeles Chargers

Salary: 7,900 6,900
FPPG: 24.21 26.10
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
LAC @ BUF Sun, 29 Nov 2020, 1:00PM ET 8,400 17.44 7,200 20.44
NYJ @ LAC Sun, 22 Nov 2020, 4:05PM ET 8,500 27.74 6,800 30.74
LAC @ MIA Sun, 15 Nov 2020, 4:05PM ET 8,000 21.48 6,600 21.48
LV @ LAC Sun, 8 Nov 2020, 4:05PM ET 7,900 23.44 6,800 26.44
LAC @ DEN Sun, 1 Nov 2020, 4:05PM ET 7,700 23.22 6,900 23.22
JAC @ LAC Sun, 25 Oct 2020, 4:25PM ET 7,500 40.48 6,400 43.48
LAC @ NO Mon, 12 Oct 2020, 8:15PM ET 7,000 27.36 6,000 27.36
LAC @ TB Sun, 4 Oct 2020, 1:00PM ET 6,700 24.00 5,800 24.00
CAR @ LAC Sun, 27 Sep 2020, 4:05PM ET 7,200 15.70 5,900 19.70
KC @ LAC Sun, 20 Sep 2020, 4:25PM ET 6,100 23.24 5,100 26.24
Season Team PaYd/G PaTD Pa QB Rating PaYd/Pa Avg
2020 LAC 320 23 100.9 7.5
Date Team Game Score Comp/Att PaYd PaTD PaInt RuAtt RuYd RuTD FD FPts DK FPts
29 Nov 2020 LAC LAC @ BUF 17:27 31/52 316 1 1 2 -2 0 17.44 20.44
22 Nov 2020 LAC NYJ @ LAC 28:34 37/49 366 3 0 2 11 0 27.74 30.74
15 Nov 2020 LAC LAC @ MIA 21:29 20/32 187 2 1 4 10 1 21.48 21.48
8 Nov 2020 LAC LV @ LAC 31:26 28/42 326 2 0 5 24 0 23.44 26.44
1 Nov 2020 LAC LAC @ DEN 30:31 29/43 278 3 2 3 21 0 23.22 23.22
25 Oct 2020 LAC JAC @ LAC 29:39 27/43 347 3 0 9 66 1 40.48 43.48
12 Oct 2020 LAC LAC @ NO 27:30 20/34 264 4 0 4 8 0 27.36 27.36
4 Oct 2020 LAC LAC @ TB 31:38 20/25 290 3 1 5 14 0 24 24
27 Sep 2020 LAC CAR @ LAC 21:16 35/49 330 1 1 3 15 0 15.7 19.7
20 Sep 2020 LAC KC @ LAC 23:20 22/33 311 1 1 4 18 1 23.24 26.24

The rookie out of Oregon has impressed so far this year and put up some massive fantasy games. On Sunday, the Chargers take on the Raiders who give up the 8th most passing yards per game and the 7th most yards per passing attempt. Herbert and Keenan Allen make a fine stack but Herbert and Mike Williams could be a difference maker, especially if Williams can snag one of those deep passes that the Raiders give up.

Next game:

DEN @ KC

Time:

Sun, 6th Dec, 08:20PM ET

Odds:

KC -14.0 / O/U 50.5

QB

Patrick Mahomes

Kansas City Chiefs

Salary: 9,000 8,200
FPPG: 26.67 28.70
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
KC @ TB Sun, 29 Nov 2020, 4:25PM ET 9,000 31.28 8,000 35.28
KC @ LV Sun, 22 Nov 2020, 8:20PM ET 9,200 22.52 7,900 25.52
CAR @ KC Sun, 8 Nov 2020, 1:00PM ET 9,300 30.88 8,100 33.88
NYJ @ KC Sun, 1 Nov 2020, 1:00PM ET 9,200 36.64 8,100 39.64
KC @ DEN Sun, 25 Oct 2020, 4:25PM ET 9,000 12.00 7,400 12.00
KC @ BUF Mon, 19 Oct 2020, 5:00PM ET 9,000 20.60 7,500 20.60
LV @ KC Sun, 11 Oct 2020, 1:00PM ET 9,000 30.70 7,700 33.70
NE @ KC Mon, 5 Oct 2020, 7:05PM ET 8,700 20.24 7,600 20.24
KC @ BAL Mon, 28 Sep 2020, 8:15PM ET 9,000 40.00 7,400 43.00
KC @ LAC Sun, 20 Sep 2020, 4:25PM ET 9,000 27.48 7,700 30.48
Season Team PaYd/G PaTD Pa QB Rating PaYd/Pa Avg
2020 MIA 310 21 115 8.2
2020 KC 337.5 30 115.5 8.3
2019 KC 360.5 8 131.5 8.8
Date Team Game Score Comp/Att PaYd PaTD PaInt RuAtt RuYd RuTD FD FPts DK FPts
29 Nov 2020 KC KC @ TB 27:24 37/49 462 3 0 4 28 0 31.28 35.28
22 Nov 2020 KC KC @ LV 35:31 34/45 348 2 1 4 16 0 22.52 25.52
8 Nov 2020 KC CAR @ KC 31:33 30/45 372 4 0 2 0 0 30.88 33.88
1 Nov 2020 KC NYJ @ KC 9:35 31/42 416 5 0 0 0 0 36.64 39.64
25 Oct 2020 KC KC @ DEN 43:16 15/23 200 1 0 0 0 0 12 12
19 Oct 2020 KC KC @ BUF 26:17 21/26 225 2 0 10 36 0 20.6 20.6
11 Oct 2020 KC LV @ KC 40:32 22/43 340 2 1 6 21 1 30.7 33.7
5 Oct 2020 KC NE @ KC 10:26 19/29 236 2 0 8 28 0 20.24 20.24
28 Sep 2020 KC KC @ BAL 34:20 31/42 385 4 0 4 26 1 40 43
20 Sep 2020 KC KC @ LAC 23:20 27/47 302 2 0 6 54 0 27.48 30.48

For some reason Mahomes is coming in at low ownership rates again this week despite blowing up against the Jets. The Panthers are fine against the pass, but have given up the 6th highest completion rating to quarterbacks so far this year, and that is probably the one thing you do not want to let Mahomes have. The way the Chiefs scheme up plays it is always worth entering a Chiefs stack into GPPs if you are the type to play multiple lineups.

Running Backs: We are getting to the time of the season where injuries are playing a huge part in running back  roles. Once again we have some nice salary saves with DeeJay Dallas and Chase Edmonds. Do not ignore Christian McCaffrey in his return. It is hard to predict his usage after being out for so long but this may be the cheapest he will be for the rest of the season. 

Next game:

NYG @ SEA

Time:

Sun, 6th Dec, 04:05PM ET

Odds:

SEA -10.0 / O/U 47.0

RB

DeeJay Dallas

Seattle Seahawks

Salary: 4,900 4,000
FPPG: 6.51 7.60
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
ARI @ SEA Thu, 19 Nov 2020, 8:20PM ET 5,500 4.20 4,000 5.20
SEA @ LAR Sun, 15 Nov 2020, 4:25PM ET 5,600 4.10 5,100 5.10
SEA @ BUF Sun, 8 Nov 2020, 1:00PM ET 5,100 10.90 5,000 11.90
SF @ SEA Sun, 1 Nov 2020, 4:25PM ET 4,600 20.30 4,000 22.80
SEA @ ARI Sun, 25 Oct 2020, 8:20PM ET 4,600 2.80 4,000 3.80
SEA @ MIA Sun, 4 Oct 2020, 1:00PM ET 4,500 3.30 4,000 4.30
Season Team RuAtt RuYd/G RuTD RuYd/R Avg RecR RecTa RecYd/G RecTD
2020 BUF 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2020 SEA 30 11.2 2 3.4 15 17 11.1 1
Date Team Game Score RuAtt RuYd RuAvg RuTD Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
19 Nov 2020 SEA ARI @ SEA 21:28 1 13 13 0 2 19 9.5 0 4.2 5.2
15 Nov 2020 SEA SEA @ LAR 16:23 2 8 4 0 2 23 11.5 0 4.1 5.1
8 Nov 2020 SEA SEA @ BUF 34:44 7 31 4.4 1 2 8 4 0 10.9 11.9
1 Nov 2020 SEA SF @ SEA 27:37 18 41 2.3 1 5 17 3.4 1 20.3 22.8
25 Oct 2020 SEA SEA @ ARI 34:37 0 0 0 0 2 18 9 0 2.8 3.8
4 Oct 2020 SEA SEA @ MIA 31:23 2 8 4 0 2 15 7.5 0 3.3 4.3

With Chris Carson already ruled out by the Seahawks, look for DeeJay Dallas to be a chalk play this week at low prices across the board. The Bills give up the 7th most rushing yards per game and the 6th most rushing yards per attempt and have allowed 11 rushing touchdowns which is 2nd worst in the NFL. The Seahawks offense is special and Wilson is good enough to beat this Buffalo secondary, but on a cross-country trip with a noon start, I think the Seahawks may try and lean on their run. Dallas grades out as an excellent play but remember not to be too overweight on the chalk players. We only need to look back to Alexander Mattison to be reminded of that.

Next game:

LAR @ ARI

Time:

Sun, 6th Dec, 04:05PM ET

Odds:

ARI +3.0 / O/U 48.5

RB

Chase Edmonds

Arizona Cardinals

Salary: 5,500 4,900
FPPG: 9.95 11.80
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
ARI @ NE Sun, 29 Nov 2020, 1:00PM ET 5,800 6.30 5,300 8.30
ARI @ SEA Thu, 19 Nov 2020, 8:20PM ET 5,900 12.90 5,100 14.90
BUF @ ARI Sun, 15 Nov 2020, 4:05PM ET 7,100 9.20 6,300 10.70
MIA @ ARI Sun, 8 Nov 2020, 4:25PM ET 7,400 10.30 6,800 11.80
SEA @ ARI Sun, 25 Oct 2020, 8:20PM ET 5,900 18.00 4,900 21.50
ARI @ DAL Mon, 19 Oct 2020, 8:15PM ET 6,000 3.40 4,900 3.90
ARI @ NYJ Sun, 11 Oct 2020, 1:00PM ET 5,900 17.70 4,700 20.20
ARI @ CAR Sun, 4 Oct 2020, 1:00PM ET 5,300 12.50 4,200 15.00
DET @ ARI Sun, 27 Sep 2020, 4:25PM ET 5,000 4.40 4,600 5.40
WSH @ ARI Sun, 20 Sep 2020, 4:05PM ET 5,000 2.80 4,600 4.30
Season Team RuAtt RuYd/G RuTD RuYd/R Avg RecR RecTa RecYd/G RecTD
2020 ARI 70 31.3 1 4.9 40 47 28.3 3
2019 ARI 60 23.3 4 5.1 12 21 8.1 1
Date Team Game Score RuAtt RuYd RuAvg RuTD Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
29 Nov 2020 ARI ARI @ NE 17:20 6 29 4.8 0 4 14 3.5 0 6.3 8.3
19 Nov 2020 ARI ARI @ SEA 21:28 2 13 6.5 0 4 36 9 1 12.9 14.9
15 Nov 2020 ARI BUF @ ARI 30:32 8 56 7 0 3 21 7 0 9.2 10.7
8 Nov 2020 ARI MIA @ ARI 34:31 25 70 2.8 0 3 18 6 0 10.3 11.8
25 Oct 2020 ARI SEA @ ARI 34:37 5 58 11.6 0 7 87 12.4 0 18 21.5
19 Oct 2020 ARI ARI @ DAL 38:10 5 23 4.6 0 1 6 6 0 3.4 3.9
11 Oct 2020 ARI ARI @ NYJ 30:10 3 36 12 1 5 56 11.2 0 17.7 20.2
4 Oct 2020 ARI ARI @ CAR 21:31 4 16 4 0 5 24 4.8 1 12.5 15
27 Sep 2020 ARI DET @ ARI 26:23 3 13 4.3 0 2 21 10.5 0 4.4 5.4
20 Sep 2020 ARI WSH @ ARI 15:30 3 4 1.3 0 3 9 3 0 2.8 4.3

Another player who may be chalk, because of the bye week and Kenyan Drake’s injury, Chase Edmonds’ price has already been adjusted. He faces a Miami Dolphins defense that allows 4.9 yards per attempt and over 125 rushing yards per game. I have a feeling that Edmonds and Kyler Murray will be over that 125 yards this week, and love playing them as a stack. Edmonds is already averaging over four receptions per game as the backup to Drake, so expect him to be heavily involved once again on Sunday.

Next game:

Time:

Odds:

RB

James Conner

Salary: 6,500 6,200
FPPG: 12.15 14.30
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
PIT @ JAC Sun, 22 Nov 2020, 1:00PM ET 7,000 11.40 6,600 12.90
CIN @ PIT Sun, 15 Nov 2020, 4:25PM ET 7,600 5.80 6,900 6.80
PIT @ DAL Sun, 8 Nov 2020, 4:25PM ET 8,200 3.00 6,900 4.00
PIT @ BAL Sun, 1 Nov 2020, 1:00PM ET 6,900 13.50 6,400 15.00
PIT @ TEN Sun, 25 Oct 2020, 1:00PM ET 7,200 12.60 6,700 14.10
CLE @ PIT Sun, 18 Oct 2020, 1:00PM ET 7,100 16.70 7,100 20.20
PHI @ PIT Sun, 11 Oct 2020, 1:00PM ET 7,000 13.80 6,900 15.30
HOU @ PIT Sun, 27 Sep 2020, 1:00PM ET 7,100 22.90 6,700 27.90
DEN @ PIT Sun, 20 Sep 2020, 1:00PM ET 6,900 19.10 6,800 23.10
PIT @ NYG Mon, 14 Sep 2020, 7:15PM ET 6,800 2.70 6,400 3.70
Season Team RuAtt RuYd/G RuTD RuYd/R Avg RecR RecTa RecYd/G RecTD
2020 PIT 145 64.5 5 4.4 25 30 14.5 0
2019 PIT 116 46.4 4 4 34 38 25.1 3
Date Team Game Score RuAtt RuYd RuAvg RuTD Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
22 Nov 2020 PIT PIT @ JAC 27:3 13 89 6.8 0 3 10 3.3 0 11.4 12.9
15 Nov 2020 PIT CIN @ PIT 10:36 13 36 2.8 0 2 12 6 0 5.8 6.8
8 Nov 2020 PIT PIT @ DAL 24:19 9 22 2.4 0 2 -2 -1 0 3 4
1 Nov 2020 PIT PIT @ BAL 28:24 15 47 3.1 1 3 13 4.3 0 13.5 15
25 Oct 2020 PIT PIT @ TEN 27:24 20 82 4.1 0 3 29 9.7 0 12.6 14.1
18 Oct 2020 PIT CLE @ PIT 7:38 20 101 5.1 1 1 1 1 0 16.7 20.2
11 Oct 2020 PIT PHI @ PIT 29:38 15 44 2.9 1 3 19 6.3 0 13.8 15.3
27 Sep 2020 PIT HOU @ PIT 21:28 18 109 6.1 1 4 40 10 0 22.9 27.9
20 Sep 2020 PIT DEN @ PIT 21:26 16 106 6.6 1 2 15 7.5 0 19.1 23.1
14 Sep 2020 PIT PIT @ NYG 26:16 6 9 1.5 0 2 8 4 0 2.7 3.7

Nobody ever loves playing Conner but he has been a solid player this year after his Week 1 struggles. The matchup does not get much better for Conner as the Cowboys rank dead last in rushing yards allowed per game, 3rd worst in rushing yards per attempt at 5.1, 2nd worst in the NFL with 11 rushing touchdowns allowed, and dead last with allowing 33 rushing attempts per game. I expect players like Dalvin Cook, James Robinson, and Josh Jacobs to be more popular than Conner, and they are all great plays too, but Conner has a chance for a ceiling game against this terrible Cowboys defense.

Wide Receivers: Some low totals across the board this week are going to push ownership to the few games that have expected scoring. Receivers on both sides of the Broncos/Falcons game are also in play and the total of 49 seems low for those two teams. 

Next game:

BUF @ SF

Time:

Mon, 7th Dec, 08:15PM ET

Odds:

BUF -1.0 / O/U 47.0

WR

Stefon Diggs

Buffalo Bills

Salary: 7,900 7,500
FPPG: 14.41 19.10
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
LAC @ BUF Sun, 29 Nov 2020, 1:00PM ET 7,900 7.40 7,600 10.90
BUF @ ARI Sun, 15 Nov 2020, 4:05PM ET 7,900 20.30 7,500 25.30
SEA @ BUF Sun, 8 Nov 2020, 1:00PM ET 7,600 16.30 7,400 23.80
NE @ BUF Sun, 1 Nov 2020, 1:00PM ET 7,100 12.20 6,800 15.20
BUF @ NYJ Sun, 25 Oct 2020, 1:00PM ET 7,500 7.80 7,000 10.80
KC @ BUF Mon, 19 Oct 2020, 5:00PM ET 7,100 13.60 6,200 16.60
BUF @ TEN Tue, 13 Oct 2020, 7:00PM ET 7,100 15.60 7,000 23.60
BUF @ LV Sun, 4 Oct 2020, 4:25PM ET 7,300 14.50 6,800 20.50
LAR @ BUF Sun, 27 Sep 2020, 1:00PM ET 6,900 12.90 7,000 14.90
BUF @ MIA Sun, 20 Sep 2020, 1:00PM ET 6,800 25.30 6,500 32.30
Season Team ReR ReTa ReYd ReYd/G ReTD Yd/Ta
2020 BUF 80 110 945 85.9 4 8.59
2019 MIN 4 8 76 38 1 9.50
Date Team Game Score Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
29 Nov 2020 BUF LAC @ BUF 17:27 7 39 5.6 0 7.4 10.9
15 Nov 2020 BUF BUF @ ARI 30:32 10 93 9.3 1 20.3 25.3
8 Nov 2020 BUF SEA @ BUF 34:44 9 118 13.1 0 16.3 23.8
1 Nov 2020 BUF NE @ BUF 21:24 6 92 15.3 0 12.2 15.2
25 Oct 2020 BUF BUF @ NYJ 18:10 6 48 8 0 7.8 10.8
19 Oct 2020 BUF KC @ BUF 26:17 6 46 7.7 1 13.6 16.6
13 Oct 2020 BUF BUF @ TEN 16:42 10 106 10.6 0 15.6 23.6
4 Oct 2020 BUF BUF @ LV 30:23 6 115 19.2 0 14.5 20.5
27 Sep 2020 BUF LAR @ BUF 32:35 4 49 12.3 1 12.9 14.9
20 Sep 2020 BUF BUF @ MIA 31:28 8 153 19.1 1 25.3 32.3

The optimizer loves the Bills this week and Stefon Diggs is going to be a huge part of this stack if all goes according to plan. The NFL leader in targets so far this year, Diggs should be able to shred this Seahawks’ secondary and another key to the game is that John Brown will be in the lineup. The Bills have struggled without Brown in as he opens up the field so much for Diggs. Play that stack with Josh Allen and differentiate your lineups elsewhere.

Next game:

DET @ CHI

Time:

Sun, 6th Dec, 01:00PM ET

Odds:

CHI -3.0 / O/U 45.0

WR

Allen Robinson II

Chicago Bears

Salary: 6,900 6,700
FPPG: 13.48 17.30
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
CHI @ GB Sun, 29 Nov 2020, 8:20PM ET 6,800 23.40 6,400 27.40
MIN @ CHI Mon, 16 Nov 2020, 8:15PM ET 6,900 7.30 7,000 10.30
CHI @ TEN Sun, 8 Nov 2020, 1:00PM ET 6,900 11.60 6,900 15.10
NO @ CHI Sun, 1 Nov 2020, 4:25PM ET 6,800 17.70 7,000 20.70
CHI @ LAR Mon, 26 Oct 2020, 8:15PM ET 6,800 9.00 6,700 11.00
CHI @ CAR Sun, 18 Oct 2020, 1:00PM ET 7,000 7.80 7,000 10.30
TB @ CHI Thu, 8 Oct 2020, 8:20PM ET 7,100 14.00 6,700 19.00
IND @ CHI Sun, 4 Oct 2020, 4:25PM ET 7,600 19.60 6,700 26.10
CHI @ ATL Sun, 27 Sep 2020, 1:00PM ET 6,900 23.30 6,200 31.30
NYG @ CHI Sun, 20 Sep 2020, 1:00PM ET 7,000 4.80 6,400 6.30
Season Team ReR ReTa ReYd ReYd/G ReTD Yd/Ta
2020 CHI 71 108 829 75.4 5 7.68
2019 CHI 98 154 1 71.7 7 0.01
Date Team Game Score Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
29 Nov 2020 CHI CHI @ GB 25:41 8 74 9.3 2 23.4 27.4
16 Nov 2020 CHI MIN @ CHI 19:13 6 43 7.2 0 7.3 10.3
8 Nov 2020 CHI CHI @ TEN 17:24 7 81 11.6 0 11.6 15.1
1 Nov 2020 CHI NO @ CHI 26:23 6 87 14.5 1 17.7 20.7
26 Oct 2020 CHI CHI @ LAR 10:24 4 70 17.5 0 9 11
18 Oct 2020 CHI CHI @ CAR 23:16 5 53 10.6 0 7.8 10.3
8 Oct 2020 CHI TB @ CHI 19:20 10 90 9 0 14 19
4 Oct 2020 CHI IND @ CHI 19:11 7 101 14.4 1 19.6 26.1
27 Sep 2020 CHI CHI @ ATL 30:26 10 123 12.3 1 23.3 31.3
20 Sep 2020 CHI NYG @ CHI 13:17 3 33 11 0 4.8 6.3

Arob may go under owned this week because of two common beliefs amongst many DFS players: the Titans defense is good and the Bears’ offense is bad. Robinson commands a fairly healthy parentage of the targets from Nick Foles and is always a PPR monster. The Titans are actually giving up the 6th most passing yards per game and have already ceded 17 passing touchdowns this season. I would not recommend a Foles stack here but AR12 on his own could be a nice contrarian play, especially with players like Tyler Lockett and Will Fuller in his same price range.

Next game:

DEN @ KC

Time:

Sun, 6th Dec, 08:20PM ET

Odds:

DEN +14.0 / O/U 50.5

WR

Tim Patrick

Denver Broncos

Salary: 5,500 4,200
FPPG: 9.23 11.90
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
NO @ DEN Sun, 29 Nov 2020, 4:05PM ET 5,500 0 4,900 0
MIA @ DEN Sun, 22 Nov 2020, 4:05PM ET 5,500 14.40 4,800 19.90
DEN @ LV Sun, 15 Nov 2020, 4:05PM ET 5,500 8.10 4,900 10.10
DEN @ ATL Sun, 8 Nov 2020, 1:00PM ET 5,300 10.90 4,900 12.90
KC @ DEN Sun, 25 Oct 2020, 4:25PM ET 5,500 5.90 4,600 7.40
DEN @ NE Sun, 18 Oct 2020, 1:00PM ET 5,400 12.10 4,500 17.10
DEN @ NYJ Thu, 1 Oct 2020, 8:20PM ET 5,300 20.30 3,700 26.30
TB @ DEN Sun, 27 Sep 2020, 4:25PM ET 4,600 12.30 3,700 14.30
DEN @ PIT Sun, 20 Sep 2020, 1:00PM ET 4,600 3.40 3,800 4.40
TEN @ DEN Mon, 14 Sep 2020, 10:10PM ET 4,600 4.90 3,700 6.90
Season Team ReR ReTa ReYd ReYd/G ReTD Yd/Ta
2020 DEN 36 58 563 56.3 3 9.71
2019 DEN 16 31 218 27.3 0 7.03
Date Team Game Score Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
29 Nov 2020 DEN NO @ DEN 31:3 0 0 0 0 0 0
22 Nov 2020 DEN MIA @ DEN 13:20 5 119 23.8 0 14.4 19.9
15 Nov 2020 DEN DEN @ LV 12:37 4 61 15.3 0 8.1 10.1
8 Nov 2020 DEN DEN @ ATL 27:34 4 29 7.3 1 10.9 12.9
25 Oct 2020 DEN KC @ DEN 43:16 3 44 14.7 0 5.9 7.4
18 Oct 2020 DEN DEN @ NE 18:12 4 101 25.3 0 12.1 17.1
1 Oct 2020 DEN DEN @ NYJ 37:28 6 113 18.8 1 20.3 26.3
27 Sep 2020 DEN TB @ DEN 28:10 4 43 10.8 1 12.3 14.3
20 Sep 2020 DEN DEN @ PIT 21:26 2 24 12 0 3.4 4.4
14 Sep 2020 DEN TEN @ DEN 16:14 4 29 7.3 0 4.9 6.9

Tim Patrick is dirt cheap across the industry and should resume his role as one of the lead target getters on the Broncos. Patrick makes for a great salary saver on both sites and gets to play a Falcons defense that has surrendered a league worst 70% completion rate and 20 passing touchdowns already this year. I am not quite there with a Drew Lock stack, but I suspect most people will play Jerry Jeudy in this matchup. I like Jeudy too, but Patrick allows you to save so much salary and has a decent chance of scoring as well.

Next game:

NE @ LAC

Time:

Sun, 6th Dec, 04:25PM ET

Odds:

LAC +1.0 / O/U 47.0

WR

Keenan Allen

Los Angeles Chargers

Salary: 8,100 8,100
FPPG: 15.45 20.60
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
LAC @ BUF Sun, 29 Nov 2020, 1:00PM ET 8,200 14.00 8,000 16.00
NYJ @ LAC Sun, 22 Nov 2020, 4:05PM ET 8,000 26.50 7,400 38.50
LAC @ MIA Sun, 15 Nov 2020, 4:05PM ET 7,800 11.40 7,100 12.90
LV @ LAC Sun, 8 Nov 2020, 4:05PM ET 7,500 20.80 7,000 28.30
LAC @ DEN Sun, 1 Nov 2020, 4:05PM ET 7,400 17.20 6,200 21.70
JAC @ LAC Sun, 25 Oct 2020, 4:25PM ET 7,000 17.50 6,200 25.50
LAC @ NO Mon, 12 Oct 2020, 8:15PM ET 6,800 9.90 6,500 10.90
LAC @ TB Sun, 4 Oct 2020, 1:00PM ET 6,900 10.20 6,500 14.20
CAR @ LAC Sun, 27 Sep 2020, 4:05PM ET 7,100 23.70 6,100 34.20
KC @ LAC Sun, 20 Sep 2020, 4:25PM ET 6,900 13.10 5,700 16.60
Season Team ReR ReTa ReYd ReYd/G ReTD Yd/Ta
2020 LAC 85 122 875 79.5 7 7.17
2019 LAC 104 149 1 74.9 6 0.01
Date Team Game Score Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
29 Nov 2020 LAC LAC @ BUF 17:27 4 40 10 1 14 16
22 Nov 2020 LAC NYJ @ LAC 28:34 16 145 9.1 1 26.5 38.5
15 Nov 2020 LAC LAC @ MIA 21:29 3 39 13 1 11.4 12.9
8 Nov 2020 LAC LV @ LAC 31:26 9 103 11.4 1 20.8 28.3
1 Nov 2020 LAC LAC @ DEN 30:31 9 67 7.4 1 17.2 21.7
25 Oct 2020 LAC JAC @ LAC 29:39 10 125 12.5 0 17.5 25.5
12 Oct 2020 LAC LAC @ NO 27:30 2 29 14.5 1 9.9 10.9
4 Oct 2020 LAC LAC @ TB 31:38 8 62 7.8 0 10.2 14.2
27 Sep 2020 LAC CAR @ LAC 21:16 13 132 10.2 1 23.7 34.2
20 Sep 2020 LAC KC @ LAC 23:20 7 96 13.7 0 13.1 16.6

I suspect Allen will be popular this week but the way he has been playing makes it really hard to get away from him. Allen is getting double digit targets and receptions nearly every week and in a close game against a porous Raiders secondary, Allen should eat. For the same reasons the optimizer loves Justin Herbert, Allen also grades out as an excellent play, especially as the Chargers continue to try and figure out their backfield.

Tight End: Another ugly week at tight end, not many of the cheaper plays grade out well either. Fant or Albert O against the Falcons have some potential, but even they are priced relatively high. Hockenson and Engram provide some nice floors at a mid-level price with some potential upside too given the game environments!

Next game:

DET @ CHI

Time:

Sun, 6th Dec, 01:00PM ET

Odds:

DET +3.0 / O/U 45.0

TE

T.J. Hockenson

Detroit Lions

Salary: 6,100 5,000
FPPG: 9.77 11.80
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
HOU @ DET Thu, 26 Nov 2020, 12:30PM ET 6,000 11.40 4,700 13.90
DET @ CAR Sun, 22 Nov 2020, 1:00PM ET 6,000 8.80 4,200 10.80
WSH @ DET Sun, 15 Nov 2020, 1:00PM ET 6,200 2.30 5,100 3.30
DET @ MIN Sun, 8 Nov 2020, 1:00PM ET 6,000 12.40 5,100 14.90
IND @ DET Sun, 1 Nov 2020, 1:00PM ET 6,000 10.00 5,300 13.50
DET @ ATL Sun, 25 Oct 2020, 1:00PM ET 5,900 14.40 5,100 16.90
DET @ JAC Sun, 18 Oct 2020, 1:00PM ET 5,700 8.70 5,300 9.70
NO @ DET Sun, 4 Oct 2020, 1:00PM ET 5,400 9.90 4,800 10.90
DET @ ARI Sun, 27 Sep 2020, 4:25PM ET 5,400 7.30 5,300 9.30
DET @ GB Sun, 20 Sep 2020, 1:00PM ET 5,600 8.20 5,200 10.20
Season Team ReR ReTa ReYd ReYd/G ReTD Yd/Ta
2020 DET 45 68 530 48.2 5 7.79
2019 DET 32 59 367 30.6 2 6.22
Date Team Game Score Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
26 Nov 2020 DET HOU @ DET 41:25 5 89 17.8 0 11.4 13.9
22 Nov 2020 DET DET @ CAR 0:20 4 68 17 0 8.8 10.8
15 Nov 2020 DET WSH @ DET 27:30 2 13 6.5 0 2.3 3.3
8 Nov 2020 DET DET @ MIN 20:34 5 39 7.8 1 12.4 14.9
1 Nov 2020 DET IND @ DET 41:21 7 65 9.3 0 10 13.5
25 Oct 2020 DET DET @ ATL 23:22 5 59 11.8 1 14.4 16.9
18 Oct 2020 DET DET @ JAC 34:16 2 17 8.5 1 8.7 9.7
4 Oct 2020 DET NO @ DET 35:29 2 9 4.5 1 9.9 10.9
27 Sep 2020 DET DET @ ARI 26:23 4 53 13.3 0 7.3 9.3
20 Sep 2020 DET DET @ GB 21:42 4 62 15.5 0 8.2 10.2

Tight end is ugly this week and this play really hinges on Matthew Stafford being able to play. The Vikings are bad against tight ends and with Kenny Golladay already ruled out, I would look for Stafford to lean on the big tight end. Most people will play Marvin Jones and he grades out as a decent play as well, but in the red zone Stafford has googly eyes for Hockenson so I like this as a contrarian play off of Jones.

Next game:

NYG @ SEA

Time:

Sun, 6th Dec, 04:05PM ET

Odds:

NYG +10.0 / O/U 47.0

TE

Evan Engram

New York Giants

Salary: 6,000 4,900
FPPG: 7.43 9.80
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
NYG @ CIN Sun, 29 Nov 2020, 1:00PM ET 5,600 13.90 4,500 20.90
PHI @ NYG Sun, 15 Nov 2020, 1:00PM ET 5,600 2.50 4,500 3.50
NYG @ WSH Sun, 8 Nov 2020, 1:00PM ET 5,500 13.30 4,300 15.80
TB @ NYG Mon, 2 Nov 2020, 8:15PM ET 5,600 9.50 4,400 12.00
NYG @ PHI Thu, 22 Oct 2020, 8:20PM ET 5,700 7.90 5,200 10.90
WSH @ NYG Sun, 18 Oct 2020, 1:00PM ET 5,600 4.00 4,900 5.00
NYG @ DAL Sun, 11 Oct 2020, 4:25PM ET 5,500 9.00 4,600 9.50
NYG @ LAR Sun, 4 Oct 2020, 4:05PM ET 5,600 6.50 4,400 9.50
SF @ NYG Sun, 27 Sep 2020, 1:00PM ET 5,900 3.70 5,000 5.20
NYG @ CHI Sun, 20 Sep 2020, 1:00PM ET 6,000 9.50 5,300 12.50
Season Team ReR ReTa ReYd ReYd/G ReTD Yd/Ta
2020 NYG 44 76 476 43.3 1 6.26
2019 NYG 44 68 467 58.4 3 6.87
Date Team Game Score Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
29 Nov 2020 NYG NYG @ CIN 19:17 6 129 21.5 0 13.9 20.9
15 Nov 2020 NYG PHI @ NYG 17:27 2 15 7.5 0 2.5 3.5
8 Nov 2020 NYG NYG @ WSH 23:20 5 48 9.6 1 13.3 15.8
2 Nov 2020 NYG TB @ NYG 25:23 5 61 12.2 0 9.5 12
22 Oct 2020 NYG NYG @ PHI 21:22 6 46 7.7 0 7.9 10.9
18 Oct 2020 NYG WSH @ NYG 19:20 2 30 15 0 4 5
11 Oct 2020 NYG NYG @ DAL 34:37 1 16 16 0 9 9.5
4 Oct 2020 NYG NYG @ LAR 9:17 6 35 5.8 0 6.5 9.5
27 Sep 2020 NYG SF @ NYG 36:9 3 22 7.3 0 3.7 5.2
20 Sep 2020 NYG NYG @ CHI 13:17 6 65 10.8 0 9.5 12.5

After struggling the last time these two teams played three weeks ago, Engram has had 9 and 10 targets in the next two games. Washington remains terrible against tight ends and Engram and Daniel Jones seem to have turned a corner in terms of chemistry. Engram is cheap on both sides but especially on DraftKings where a higher target rate could add up to more PPR points in what should be another closely contested game.