NFL Week 7 Main Slate GPP Targets

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I hope Week 6 treated you all well! We had some good hits off of our picks including players from that Vikings/Falcons shootout, as well as some more under owned players from the Titans/Texans game that went into overtime. Alexander Mattison was a nice reminder that chalk plays are not always the best route to go, especially in large-scale GPPs. We have an 11-game slate to get through in Week 7 with some high totals and some terrible defenses to exploit (we’re looking at you Houston). Let’s take a look at this week’s GPP targets.

Quarterback: Note I actually really like each of these QBs as well as their opponents who are Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, and Russell Wilson. The thought is these three are cheaper and will be lower owned this week. FULL GAME STACKS FOR EACH OF THESE PLEASE (with the exception of Jacksonville). Mahomes is certainly worth an under-owned play this week as the Chiefs travel to Denver where there is expected to be 4-8 inches of snow. 

There is going to be some high ownership at the top-end of quarterback this week and we love most of them as tournament plays, but Deshaun Watson stands out here as a player who should boom at a slight discount. The total for this Green Bay/Houston game is sky-high at 57 points and we know Green Bay can put those points on the board, so expect Houston to be playing catch up for most of the game. Watson has turned it up over the last three weeks throwing over 300 yards in each game with 2, 3, and 4 passing touchdowns respectively. Watson has also turned up the rushing yards the last couple of weeks with 25 and 26 yards in each game and he always has a chance to run one in at the goal line.

Look, Stafford was a disappointment last week against Jacksonville but the Lions scored 34 points and rushed in three touchdowns. The Jags are a team you can run on, but the Falcons, are a team you throw on. This Falcons’ secondary is giving up 335 yards per game through the air with a completion percentage of almost 72%. With the way these two quarterbacks performed last week, I expect more people to play Matt Ryan over Matt Stafford, but I’ll take Stafford at the slight discount to Ryan on both sites.

Now, because of the late switch, the Cardinals/Seahawks game is the Sunday Night game now but is also included on the main slate. Just gives us a bit longer to sweat things out! Kyler has been lights out this year and the huge rushing floor he has each game just pads his stat lines. The Seahawks have a pretty decent run defense so I expect Kenyan Drake to be somewhat neutralized but this Seahawks secondary has allowed an unbelievable average of 370 passing yards per game through six weeks. Hopkins is hobbled with an ankle injury so I do not mind the Christian Kirk stack, although Kirk could be highly owned after his blowup game on Monday night.

The optimizer loves the rookie quarterback this week off of a bye against the block of swiss cheese that is the Jaguars defense. The Jags are giving up a league-worst 8.5 passing yards per attempt which means, load up the receivers with a large ADOT. Keenan Allen is playing after leaving the game against the Saints with back spasms. Mike Williams should eat against this defense and actually makes for a nice tournament stack with Herbert. Love the discount that Herbert comes at as well, compared to the big names we already talked about.

Running Backs: These are the three I will have a lot of exposure to but I will zag with Zeke in a few lineups from Kamara. Everyone’s going to be down on him at his price tag and his two fumbles, but I like him to rebound. Mike Davis against the Saints is fun but his price has come up and we saw last week he can put up a dud. Keep an eye on the Packers’ running back situation as Aaron Jones was added to the injury report and Jamaal Williams could be the beneficiary and do not be afraid to play some AJ Dillon in GPPs if Jones is out. Finally, keep an eye on Justin Jackson heading into Sunday. If he is out and even if he is in, Josh Kelley may be a contrarian play that gets overlooked.

Hunt had a tough game last week against the Steelers who have one of the best rush defenses in the league. This week, he faces a Cincinnati defense that the Browns have already dismantled on the ground once this year and are allowing an average of 142 rushing yards per game at 5.1 yards per carry. Load up on Hunt who comes at a nice discount to some of the higher-end plays but projects at being just as productive.

Another week of no Michael Thomas should clear the way for Alvin Kamara to have another monster game. His rushing numbers have not been world-changing, but Kamara has such a high receiving floor with at least 51 receiving yards in 4 of 5 games and more than 74 yards receiving in 3 of those 4. Kamara also has 7 touchdowns on the year already and is always a threat to score multiple touchdowns in each game. With no Thomas and now no Emmanuel Sanders, look for Brees to lean heavily on Kamara against this suspect Panthers defense.

Gio is the free square this week as Joe Mixon was announced out on Friday with a foot injury. Bernard has thrived without Mixon in the lineup as he has put up double digit PPR points in each game and has more than 19 PPR points in four of those seven games. Load him up in DraftKings where you get the full point PPR bonus, but at his price range he is a near-must play on FanDuel as well.

Wide Receivers: All of these stacks are going to be popular but the Steelers grade out as an under owned stack that could go off. The Titans are perceived to have a good defense, but they have actually been pretty bad especially against the pass. Pick your Steelers wide receivers this week as Diontae Johnson is back. Terry McLaurin against Dallas is another sneaky play, I just do not love trusting Kyle Allen for a ton of production with so many other juicy games. 

Wow, Robbie Anderson leading off our wide receivers this week. Anderson has been solid so far this year and has found a real chemistry with Teddy Bridgewater. A lot of people are not going to like his matchup against the Saints but on closer inspection, the Saints’ have been terrible against the pass with Marshon Lattimore giving up a perfect passer rating to his defensive assignments. The Saints have also given up a 15 passing touchdowns this season which is second worst in the NFL to the Atlanta Falcons. Do not be afraid of the Panthers stack this week as I still expect them to be chasing the Saints, I just do not expect the Saints to be bale to stop the Panthers attack.

It is hard to say if Patrick Peterson will shadow Metcalf or Lockett or just stick to a side, but Metcalf has been matchup proof so far this season. Metcalf has led the Seahawks in receiving each week this season and is quickly becoming Russell Wilson’s favorite target. I do not mind a complete game stack here as well, and with the Cardinals’ fast pace of play, there should be plenty of possessions for Seattle in this game to do some damage.

Diggs is never a popular play and the general consensus of Buffalo is still a slow, conservative team that runs a lot. Well, the running game has been awful this year so Josh Allen has been forced to air it out with amazing results. Yes, the Bills should destroy the Jets, but the Bills still have to put up points to do that. John Brown is out for the Bills as well which should funnel more targets to Diggs. The Jets are averaging a 71.8% completion percentage at 7.8 yards per passing attempt this season and Diggs has had at least 86 yards or a touchdown in every game this season. At his price range on FanDuel I expect more people to flock to Golladay or Lockett, and Julio, Ridley, or Metcalf on DraftKings.

Tight Ends: As usual Tight End is ugly. Kittle against the Patriots is not ideal, Kelce in the snow may not be great, and paying up for Tonyan or Jonnu is not as appealing either. I love Cook and Henry at decent price tags, and if you want to go dirt cheap Logan Thomas, or Harrison Bryant for the Browns could be a nice punt. Finally all of the game stacks above with the mid-priced guys like Hockenson or Hurst are worth throwing into your stacked lineups as well!

The Panthers have been pretty pedestrian against the pass this year, but this is really more of a play on who does Drew Brees have to throw to? It should be the Alvin Kamara show, but look for Cook to get in on the action as well with very few reliable wide receiver options. I like Cook better on DraftKings where his price is depressed compared to on FanDuel.

Herbert has shown that he loves relying on Hunter Henry down the field and the tight end has been a staple of the Chargers’ offense for years now. Henry comes in at a nice price on both sites and for a tight end who has seen 7 or more targets in every game but one, I think Henry has a good chance to do some damage against the Jags with a good chance to score a touchdown as well.