MLB
Quarterbacks:
Watson is actually quietly putting together an MVP type season this year and is positioned to finish the year strong against the Bengals and the Titans. This one could be a shootout with two of the league’s worst defenses going head to head with no playoff aspirations on the line. The Bengals are allowing an average of 372 yards per game to opposing offenses which is pretty evenly split between 244 passing yards and 128 rushing yards and that suits Watson’s game just fine. It has been another ugly year in Houston, but in a very winnable game, I think the Texans unleash him to get as many points as he can on Sunday.
Mahomes against the Falcons secondary seems almost too good to be true. This is a defense that allows over 287 passing yards per game at a 70% completion percentage, and 28 passing touchdowns this year. Yes, the defense has been better since Dan Quinn was fired but look what Brady was able to do in just one half last week. It is going to be mega chalk, but a Mahomes stack could simply outscore every other play this week. Look to diversify that stack with someone like Mecole Hardman or Sammy Watkins rather than Tyreek Hill or Travis Kelce to set yourself apart.
Two weeks in a row now and Hurts has come through for us. He was highly owned last week and his price tag is starting to come up a bit, but the man is playing the Cowboys defense which is giving up over 383 yards per game to opposing offenses, and have been absolutely obliterated this year by dual threat quarterbacks. Hurts could be the nice cheaper pivot off the top two guys and the weapons he can be paired with will be less popular. I suggest a Greg Ward or Miles Sanders stack to be a little contrarian.
Running Backs:
Who would have thought that by the end of the season we’d be writing up the Bears offense every week as potential GPP targets?! Montgomery has had four massive weeks in a row now and he still not priced up on either FanDuel or DraftKings. Oh, he also has a matchup with the Jaguars who are allowing a league worst 418 yards per game and 146 rushing yards per game. This is shaping up to be another massive week for Montgomery so lock him into your lineups at a very reasonable price tag.
Ekeler could be a sneaky play this week as from judging by ownership percentages each week, it seems as though the general public still thinks the Broncos have a good defense. Denver is actually getting torched every week on the ground and has a bottom run defense in rushing yards per game allowed and rushing yards per attempt. Ekeler can definitely do damage in the receiving game so the only real hesitation in playing Ekeler is having guys like Ballage vulture touchdowns at the goal line. When Ekeler gets the workload he usually delivers and with the perceived difficult matchup against Denver, I think he’ll be under owned this week.
His workload should be secure, although there is a very real possibility of Darrell Williams taking some touches, but otherwise Bell grades out as a really nice play against Atlanta. With CEH on the sidelines, Bell will get most of the touches out of the backfield and definitely be worked into the passing game as well. His salary opens things up to get a couple big name guys in your lineup and although the running back position has not been the fantasy goldmine it has been in recent years, Bell should do enough to return value on his price tag.
Wide Receivers:
I wrote up Watson’s upside earlier but the Bengals have just as much potential this week and make for a nice correlated game stack. Higgins has been the top wide receiver target no matter who has been under center so it is clear that Cincinnati sees him as the key to their future offense. The Texans cannot stop anyone and Higgins is dirt cheap on each site for the upside that he brings. Add in the fact that Tyler Boyd is out with a concussion and AJ Green is as inconsistent as they come, and Higgins makes for a fine play this week.
No Julio this week? Check. Falcons should be trailing all game? Check. Everything is shaping up for Ridley to have another monster game against the Chiefs as Matt Ryan should be throwing all game long. The Chiefs defense is not great either, and with basically a big zero from its run game, Atlanta has little choice to air it out to Ridley. Again, he makes for a nice correlation to a Mahomes stack, but he is pricey so it may be difficult to fit him and Tyreek or Kelce into a lineup.
Landry is another nice mid-tier play that has boomed in three of his last four weeks. The Browns get the dream matchup against the Jets this week (don’t say that to the Rams), and Landry should feast against this secondary. The only concern is that Chubb and Hunt get to the Jets before Baker Mayfield and Landry do, but there should be plenty of offensive opportunities to go around. I like Landry to boom again this week, but don’t love any correlated stacks with the Jets.
Tight Ends:
Fun fact, the Jets have been giving up touchdowns to the tight end position in bunches this year with Tyler Higbee last week, Will Dissly the week before, Waller with two the week before that, Mike Gesicki and Adam Shaheen the week before that, Hunter Henry the week before that, you get the picture. Enter Austin Hooper who finally looks healthy again after his emergency appendectomy and caught 5 of his 6 targets and a touchdown in Week 15 against the Giants.
It does not matter who is under center for Washington, Thomas has been getting peppered with targets every week. Terry McLaurin is officially doubtful for this week which puts the focal point of the offense squarely on Thomas against a Carolina defense that does not defend anything very well. Last week, Thomas caught 13 of his 15(!) targets for 101 yards and could be in for a similar workload this week.