Russ will be the first person to admit he had an off game last week against a strong Giants front seven who did not give him any time to operate. Ever since the Seahawks decided to limit their turnovers and taking Russ out of the kitchen, the offense has sputtered putting up 16, 28, 23, and 12 points in their last five games. One reason for this is the defense has improved since the start of the season. But the new philosophy on offense has cost the Seahawks the lead in the NFC West and I expect the coaches want to get the offensive mojo back with a very winnable game against the Jets. Seattle never runs up the score in games they are heavily favored, but I expect them to let Russ cook again as we get closer to the playoffs.
This game could get ugly fast in Motown as Aaron Rodgers and the Packers visit the Lions in a divisional matchup. An indoor stadium with Detroit’s top two cornerbacks out with injuries? This could be another Rodgers-Davante Adams week and with no Kenny Golladay for Detroit again, it may be difficult for them to keep it close. But Rodgers is playing with a chip on his shoulder and has shown little mercy for opposing defenses this season so load him up with the full Packers stack this Sunday and let this offense go to work.
Last time we saw the Buccaneers they lost to the Chiefs by a field goal as Brady and co. lost for the second straight week by the score of 27-24. Tampa Bay has had a bye to reset and host a Minnesota Vikings team that barely beat Jacksonville in overtime. This is also a Vikings defense that was getting beat routinely by Mike Glennon and have allowed an average of 261 passing yards per game and 24 passing touchdowns. Now they get to face an angry Brady who has not looked sharp the last few weeks but hopefully he and Bruce Arians have ironed things out. The narrative right now is that Brady is washed, but in a good matchup coming off a bye, I like TB12 to go off on Sunday against the Vikings.
Four words. Andy Dalton Revenge Game. Seriously? Maybe not. But Cincinnati has a terrible secondary that is allowing an average of 257 passing yards per game and have given up 23 passing touchdowns. Sure, Zeke could run all over them, but has he really inspired any confidence lately? I think Dalton could actually be okay in this matchup and you know he’ll be up for this game.
Look, ignore the ugly loss last week against the Lions in the last minute of the fourth quarter and also the fact that Chicago has lost six straight games. If you squint really hard, the offense has actually looked good the last couple of weeks, and they get one of the best matchups in the NFL as Houston comes to town. The Texans are allowing an average of 150 rushing yards per game and have allowed 16 rushing touchdowns so far this season. It never feels great to play Montgomery, but I think he can at least return value this week, especially on DraftKings at only $5500.
Lock and load! Last week was never going to be a Derrick Henry week but this week screams it. The Jaguars defense was softened up by Dalvin Cook last week and this week should just get mowed over by Henry. Jacksonville is allowing 136 rushing yards per game at 4.4 yards per attempt, and have given up 14 rushing touchdowns. The Titans should be up early and big in this game, and the Optimizer agrees: Henry is a must play this week.
I think a lot of people are going to move to Robby Anderson with DJ Moore out on the COVID list, but I think the news of Christian McCaffrey being out is more important. This means Curtis Samuel should be used both as a receiver and out of the backfield on designed rushing plays. If moving to Samuel over Anderson gives you some leverage I say do it, as he can provide you with some explosive plays and provides a decent floor but a pretty high ceiling if he gets the touches.
Just do it. Start every lineup with Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, and Derick Henry and then differentiate yourself at other positions. Adams has scored a touchdown in seven straight games and his connection with Rodgers is out of this world right now. The Lions will be without their two best cornerbacks Desmond Trufant and Jeff Okudah, so I do not like Detroit’s chances of shutting Adams down.
Sure, the Falcons defense has been better of late and yes, the Chargers were completely shutout last week. Recency bias is something that plays into our favor though as I think a lot of people are going to be off the Chargers despite their exploitable matchup. Allen has been a monster so far this year and I don’t really see anyone on the defensive side stopping him this week. As long the Chargers don’t Charger this game away, Herbert and Allen should be able to have a productive week against a secondary that allows 285 passing yards per game and 17 passing touchdowns.
Statistically, the Lions have been okay against tight ends this year but that is probably because most teams just run all over them. Tonyan comes into the game tied with Travis Kelce for most touchdowns on the season by a tight end and could easily add to his total here. How about this for extra motivation, the Lions actually cut Tonyan after signing the undrafted rookie to their training camp. He ended up with the Packers and the rest as they say is history.
Another Charger? Yes please. The Falcons give up a ton of fantasy points to the tight end position this year and after a brutal game last week, I expect the Chargers offense to show up. Henry has been consistent but unspectacular this year but as with Phillip Rivers before him in this system, Herbert loves to target his tight ends in the red zone.