NFL Week 11 Main Slate GPP Targets

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Happy Taysom Hill week! Let’s get to it!

Quarterbacks:

We’re doing it, we’re going back to Lamar. He is coming in about $1000-2000 cheaper on both FanDuel and DraftKings from what he was priced at earlier in the year and after a fairly miserable game against the Patriots last week, I don’t really see the masses going back to Lamar this week. The Ravens are back at home where their offense has shown up despite two huge losses to AFC rivals Pittsburgh and Kansas City. They face a terrible defense in Tennessee that is allowing 4.5 yards per rushing attempt and 277 passing yards per game. On the other side of the ball, Brandon Williams and Calais Campbell are out for the Ravens which means two of their best run-stoppers against a team that loves to run. If the Ravens defense cannot keep points off the board, Lamar is going to have to do his part to keep this game close.

Justin Herbert, at home, against a Jets defense that is allowing nearly 30 points per game to opposing offenses? Yes please! Herbert has been a stud since taking over the reigns from Tyrod Taylor, and with very little resistance from the Jets’ defense, and a questionable run game headed by career journeyman Kalen Ballage, look for Herbert to put some points on the board. Now, quarterbacks that face the Jets are always popular in DFS, so you may want to decide how much ownership you want of Herbert.

Ben is just never highly owned in GPPs especially when the Steelers are heavy favorites in a game. Last week Pittsburgh were over a touchdown favorite against the Bengals and everyone thought chalk James Conner would go off against the Bengals run defense but instead Ben threw for 333 yards and 4 touchdowns. This week he gets to tee off against the Jaguars who have allowed 19 passing touchdowns and a league worst 8.5 yards per pass attempt. Do we get another big performance from Ben? It’s hard to say, but he gives you GPP winning upside at low ownership every week.

Running Backs: 

It’s going to be hard not to plug Dalvin Cook into your lineups especially against a Cowboys defense that is allowing 157 rushing yards per game, 5.0 yards per carry and has allowed 11 rushing touchdowns on the year. What else is there to say? Afraid of the chalk? It’s going to be Cook or Kamara in nearly every lineup so get away from either at your own risk.

He paid off for us last week so let’s go back to the well with Gibson as Washington welcomes the terrible Bengals’ defense to town. The Bengals are giving up nearly 28 points per game, 5.0 rushing yards per attempt and over 133 rushing yards per game. Now if only J.D. McKissic would go away so Gibson can add the pass-catching to his arsenal. Washington is much more likely to run than the Steelers did last week, especially with Alex Smith managing the game, so I really like Gibson to have another huge day.

I actually think of the high-end backs, Henry will be one of the lowest owned because he is playing the Ravens. I mentioned earlier that Brandon Williams and Calais Campbell are out and that is a lot of beef on the inside of that Baltimore defense. This just seems like a game that the Titans want to use Henry in, just as they did last year in the AFC playoffs. The Ravens are actually slowly creeping down the list and are now allowing an average of 4.5 yards per carry, which is uncharacteristic of their defense. Take Henry as the high-end contrarian play off of Cook or Kamara.

 

Wide Receivers:

The Herbert-Allen stack has been money all year long, and I really don’t see why it would stop against the Jets. Allen is the number three overall wide receiver in fantasy football this year, and who would have thought that would happen when Phillip Rivers left. Not much else to say here except again, it may be chalky. Don’t be afraid to mix it up with some Mike Williams or Hunter Henry stacks as well if you feel like Allen will be too highly owned.

A second straight week of Washington stacks? Love it. McLaurin didn’t pay off as much as Gibson did last week but he still gave you 7 catches for 95 yards and remember what the Steelers’ wide receivers just did to this secondary. I am not expecting Alex Smith to be Big Ben and throw for 4 touchdowns but if McLaurin can break off for a long touchdown he’ll more than reach value for his salary this week.

Yes, Taysom Hill is reportedly starting, and yes Thomas has looked dreadful since coming back from his injuries, but my god he is cheap especially on DraftKings and we know the talent is still there. Expect everyone to play Kamara in this matchup against the Falcons who have actually had a decent run defense the past few weeks. Taysom Hill is not Drew Brees but he can throw 8 yards down the field to Thomas over and over again against this Falcons secondary. Nobody is going to want to play him, but guess what, that is when you should.

Tight Ends:

This is the free square. Taysom Hill is going to start at quarterback against the Atlanta Falcons and he is a near minimum tight end player. Lock him in, load him up. I guess the fear could be that after a few plays, Jameis Winston comes in, but it seems like Payton is insistent on playing Hill. Either way he should return value easily so just put him in and differentiate elsewhere.

Boom, how’s this for contrarian? The Falcons are still the worst team in the league at defending the tight end position and just what if Taysom Hill gets pulled after a series? What if its Jameis Winston throwing bombs to Jared Cook in the end zone? Crazier things have happened, but I am not ready to rule it out!

Every week more Lions offensive pieces are out and every week the Optimizer loves Hockenson. Stafford is without both Golladay and Swift this week so that is a lot of targets that are going to get funneled down through Hockenson and Marvin Jones. We know Adrian Peterson does not really catches passes so we could very well see Kerryon Johnson in an expanded role. But Hockenson has that red zone presence and every week touchdown upside so I don’t mind zagging to Hock while the whole world plays Taysom.