NFL Week 10 Main Slate GPP Targets

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Week 10 sees several prominent offense off of the main slate with the Falcons, Cowboys, and Chiefs on their byes, and the Ravens on Sunday Night Football. Slates like this leave things a little more wide open as aside from the Packers, there really is not a strong must-play stack. This should in theory lead to some pretty evenly distributed ownership percentages for every position. The Optimizer loves Green Bay this week, but a note as of Saturday, strong winds in the forecast may temper some of the ceilings in the passing game. This makes Aaron Jones the chalk pivot off of Davante Adams.

 

Quarterbacks:

Next game:

Time:

Odds:

QB

Kyler Murray

Arizona Cardinals

Salary: 7,800 7,500
FPPG: 25.80 26.90
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
PHI @ ARI Sun, 20 Dec 2020, 4:05PM ET 8,000 34.14 7,000 38.14
ARI @ NYG Sun, 13 Dec 2020, 1:00PM ET 8,100 18.46 7,200 18.46
LAR @ ARI Sun, 6 Dec 2020, 4:05PM ET 8,700 17.42 7,600 18.42
ARI @ NE Sun, 29 Nov 2020, 1:00PM ET 9,100 8.90 8,200 8.90
ARI @ SEA Thu, 19 Nov 2020, 8:20PM ET 9,100 20.26 8,500 20.26
BUF @ ARI Sun, 15 Nov 2020, 4:05PM ET 8,800 30.90 8,000 30.90
MIA @ ARI Sun, 8 Nov 2020, 4:25PM ET 8,600 37.92 7,800 41.92
SEA @ ARI Sun, 25 Oct 2020, 8:20PM ET 8,400 38.10 7,100 41.10
ARI @ DAL Mon, 19 Oct 2020, 8:15PM ET 8,400 28.92 7,300 28.92
ARI @ NYJ Sun, 11 Oct 2020, 1:00PM ET 8,300 27.30 7,200 30.30
Date Team Game Score Comp/Att PaYd PaTD PaInt RuAtt RuYd RuTD FD FPts DK FPts
20 Dec 2020 ARI PHI @ ARI 26:33 27/36 406 3 1 8 29 1 34.14 38.14
13 Dec 2020 ARI ARI @ NYG 26:7 24/35 244 1 0 13 47 0 18.46 18.46
6 Dec 2020 ARI LAR @ ARI 38:28 21/39 173 3 1 5 15 0 17.42 18.42
29 Nov 2020 ARI ARI @ NE 17:20 23/34 170 0 1 5 31 0 8.9 8.9
19 Nov 2020 ARI ARI @ SEA 21:28 29/42 269 2 0 5 15 0 20.26 20.26
15 Nov 2020 ARI BUF @ ARI 30:32 22/32 245 1 1 11 61 2 30.9 30.9
8 Nov 2020 ARI MIA @ ARI 34:31 21/26 283 3 0 11 106 1 37.92 41.92
25 Oct 2020 ARI SEA @ ARI 34:37 34/48 360 3 1 14 67 1 38.1 41.1
19 Oct 2020 ARI ARI @ DAL 38:10 9/24 188 2 0 10 74 1 28.92 28.92
11 Oct 2020 ARI ARI @ NYJ 30:10 27/37 380 1 1 9 31 1 27.3 30.3

Is there any quarterback in the league with a higher upside week in and week out? With the Cardinals’ run game just not operating as well as it did last season, Kyler has taken it upon himself to move the ball down the field with his legs. He faces a Bills defense that has allowed the most rushing touchdowns in the NFL with 13 and we know Kyler is always a threat to run one in at the goal line. Buffalo is also allowing 4.6 yards per carry and an average of over 125 rushing yards per game. What about this angle. Bills’ shut down cornerback Tre’Davious White is trending towards playing and he should be on Deandre Hopkins like glue. That is going to allow Christian Kirk to get more targets and while he has over 300 less receiving yards than Hopkins, he only has about 60 less air yards on the season. Yeah, he goes deep!

Next game:

Time:

Odds:

QB

Aaron Rodgers

Green Bay Packers

Salary: 8,700 6,500
FPPG: 24.31 25.30
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
TB @ GB Sun, 24 Jan 2021, 3:05PM ET 8,700 24.84 6,500 27.84
LAR @ GB Sat, 16 Jan 2021, 4:35PM ET 8,400 25.54 6,900 25.54
CAR @ GB Sat, 19 Dec 2020, 8:15PM ET 9,200 18.32 7,800 18.32
GB @ DET Sun, 13 Dec 2020, 4:25PM ET 9,100 30.90 7,500 30.90
PHI @ GB Sun, 6 Dec 2020, 4:25PM ET 8,500 23.50 6,800 23.50
CHI @ GB Sun, 29 Nov 2020, 8:20PM ET 8,600 25.64 6,700 25.64
GB @ IND Sun, 22 Nov 2020, 4:25PM ET 9,000 22.74 7,000 26.74
JAC @ GB Sun, 15 Nov 2020, 1:00PM ET 8,400 26.40 7,900 29.40
GB @ SF Thu, 5 Nov 2020, 8:20PM ET 8,100 28.90 6,700 31.90
MIN @ GB Sun, 1 Nov 2020, 1:00PM ET 8,400 22.54 7,600 23.54
Date Team Game Score Comp/Att PaYd PaTD PaInt RuAtt RuYd RuTD FD FPts DK FPts
24 Jan 2021 GB TB @ GB 31:26 33/48 346 3 1 0 0 0 24.84 27.84
16 Jan 2021 GB LAR @ GB 18:32 23/36 296 2 0 4 -3 1 25.54 25.54
19 Dec 2020 GB CAR @ GB 16:24 20/29 143 1 0 5 26 1 18.32 18.32
13 Dec 2020 GB GB @ DET 31:24 26/33 290 3 0 6 13 1 30.9 30.9
6 Dec 2020 GB PHI @ GB 16:30 25/34 295 3 0 4 -3 0 23.5 23.5
29 Nov 2020 GB CHI @ GB 25:41 21/29 211 4 0 2 12 0 25.64 25.64
22 Nov 2020 GB GB @ IND 31:34 27/38 311 3 1 3 13 0 22.74 26.74
15 Nov 2020 GB JAC @ GB 20:24 24/34 325 2 1 3 4 1 26.4 29.4
5 Nov 2020 GB GB @ SF 34:17 25/31 305 4 0 1 7 0 28.9 31.9
1 Nov 2020 GB MIN @ GB 28:22 27/41 291 3 0 2 9 0 22.54 23.54

He could be mega-chalk, but if he puts up 30+ points, he may be a must play this week. The Packers are at home to the Jaguars as two-touchdown favorites and the Green Bay can easily put this game out of reach in the first half. The Jaguars have allowed 17 passing touchdowns, a 70% passing completion percentage, 280 passing yards per game, and an average of 8.4 yards per attempt. Yeah, that looks like a big day for Rodgers. If you want to be contrarian, play Aaron Jones (more on him later) with Rodgers, instead of the Davante Adams stack. Either way, the Packers are going to be popular today, and it will be difficult to get away from them, even in GPPs.

Next game:

Time:

Odds:

QB

Tom Brady

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Salary: 7,800 6,100
FPPG: 21.85 23.20
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
KC @ TB Sun, 7 Feb 2021, 6:30PM ET N/a 19.84 N/a 19.84
TB @ GB Sun, 24 Jan 2021, 3:05PM ET 7,800 20.10 6,100 20.10
TB @ NO Sun, 17 Jan 2021, 6:40PM ET 7,700 22.16 6,300 22.16
TB @ ATL Sun, 20 Dec 2020, 1:00PM ET 7,900 23.40 6,600 26.40
MIN @ TB Sun, 13 Dec 2020, 1:00PM ET 7,800 15.64 6,900 15.64
KC @ TB Sun, 29 Nov 2020, 4:25PM ET 7,900 23.70 6,600 26.70
LAR @ TB Mon, 23 Nov 2020, 8:15PM ET 7,900 14.64 6,500 14.64
TB @ CAR Sun, 15 Nov 2020, 1:00PM ET 7,800 31.84 6,300 34.84
NO @ TB Sun, 8 Nov 2020, 8:20PM ET 7,800 5.36 6,900 5.36
TB @ NYG Mon, 2 Nov 2020, 8:15PM ET 7,700 19.06 6,700 19.06
Date Team Game Score Comp/Att PaYd PaTD PaInt RuAtt RuYd RuTD FD FPts DK FPts
7 Feb 2021 TB KC @ TB 9:31 21/29 201 3 0 4 -2 0 19.84 19.84
24 Jan 2021 TB TB @ GB 31:26 20/36 280 3 3 1 -1 0 20.1 20.1
17 Jan 2021 TB TB @ NO 30:20 18/33 199 2 0 5 2 1 22.16 22.16
20 Dec 2020 TB TB @ ATL 31:27 31/45 390 2 0 2 -2 0 23.4 26.4
13 Dec 2020 TB MIN @ TB 14:26 15/23 196 2 0 3 -2 0 15.64 15.64
29 Nov 2020 TB KC @ TB 27:24 27/41 345 3 2 1 -1 0 23.7 26.7
23 Nov 2020 TB LAR @ TB 27:24 26/48 216 2 2 0 0 0 14.64 14.64
15 Nov 2020 TB TB @ CAR 46:23 28/39 341 3 0 2 2 1 31.84 34.84
8 Nov 2020 TB NO @ TB 38:3 22/38 209 0 3 0 0 0 5.36 5.36
2 Nov 2020 TB TB @ NYG 25:23 28/40 279 2 0 1 -1 0 19.06 19.06

Hear me out. Never will we get Tom Brady and the Bucs’ offense at a lower point than this week after being blown out by the Saints in prime time. All weapons are healthy, and another week of Antonio Brown in practice should help with his connection with Brady. This is a Panthers’ defense that just gave up 372 yards and 4 touchdowns to Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. I am not saying its a lock, but there is definitely a higher chance of this Bucs’ offense bouncing back in a big way than being shut down once again.

 

Running Backs:

Next game:

Time:

Odds:

RB

Mike Davis

Carolina Panthers

Salary: 6,500 6,300
FPPG: 12.64 13.80
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
CAR @ GB Sat, 19 Dec 2020, 8:15PM ET 7,400 7.10 6,500 8.10
DEN @ CAR Sun, 13 Dec 2020, 1:00PM ET 6,800 23.80 6,400 26.30
CAR @ MIN Sun, 29 Nov 2020, 1:00PM ET 7,200 9.40 6,900 10.90
DET @ CAR Sun, 22 Nov 2020, 1:00PM ET 7,400 14.90 6,800 15.90
TB @ CAR Sun, 15 Nov 2020, 1:00PM ET 5,400 6.40 6,700 8.40
CAR @ KC Sun, 8 Nov 2020, 1:00PM ET 7,800 6.20 6,700 8.70
ATL @ CAR Thu, 29 Oct 2020, 8:20PM ET 8,400 8.20 6,700 8.70
CAR @ NO Sun, 25 Oct 2020, 1:00PM ET 7,700 6.10 6,600 8.60
CHI @ CAR Sun, 18 Oct 2020, 1:00PM ET 7,500 10.50 7,000 12.50
CAR @ ATL Sun, 11 Oct 2020, 1:00PM ET 6,800 25.40 6,400 29.90
Date Team Game Score RuAtt RuYd RuAvg RuTD Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
19 Dec 2020 CAR CAR @ GB 16:24 14 59 4.2 0 2 2 1 0 7.1 8.1
13 Dec 2020 CAR DEN @ CAR 32:27 11 51 4.6 2 5 42 8.4 0 23.8 26.3
29 Nov 2020 CAR CAR @ MIN 27:28 15 55 3.7 0 3 24 8 0 9.4 10.9
22 Nov 2020 CAR DET @ CAR 0:20 19 64 3.4 1 2 15 7.5 0 14.9 15.9
15 Nov 2020 CAR TB @ CAR 46:23 7 32 4.6 0 4 12 3 0 6.4 8.4
8 Nov 2020 CAR CAR @ KC 31:33 1 3 3 0 5 34 6.8 0 6.2 8.7
29 Oct 2020 CAR ATL @ CAR 25:17 13 66 5.1 0 1 11 11 0 8.2 8.7
25 Oct 2020 CAR CAR @ NO 24:27 7 12 1.7 0 5 24 4.8 0 6.1 8.6
18 Oct 2020 CAR CHI @ CAR 23:16 18 52 2.9 1 2 3 1.5 0 10.5 12.5
11 Oct 2020 CAR CAR @ ATL 23:16 16 89 5.6 0 9 60 6.7 1 25.4 29.9

It’s going to be hard to get away from Davis this week given his workload and price, especially on DraftKings. The argument for Davis is strong, and he will allow you to fit some high end players (Packers stack anyone?) in your lineups. The argument against Davis is to always semi-fade the cheap chalk players. By all means have your Davis lineups, but not at 100% exposure. Remember he is playing the Bucs who are the number one defense against the run in the NFL this year, allowing only 77 rushing yards per game.

Next game:

Time:

Odds:

RB

Giovani Bernard

Cincinnati Bengals

Salary: 6,200 5,400
FPPG: 8.93 10.60
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
DAL @ CIN Sun, 13 Dec 2020, 1:00PM ET 5,700 1.80 5,000 4.30
CIN @ MIA Sun, 6 Dec 2020, 1:00PM ET 5,800 3.90 5,200 4.90
NYG @ CIN Sun, 29 Nov 2020, 1:00PM ET 6,100 5.90 5,700 6.90
CIN @ WSH Sun, 22 Nov 2020, 1:00PM ET 6,300 7.50 5,500 9.50
CIN @ PIT Sun, 15 Nov 2020, 4:25PM ET 6,200 6.70 5,400 8.70
TEN @ CIN Sun, 1 Nov 2020, 1:00PM ET 5,900 21.30 5,800 22.80
CLE @ CIN Sun, 25 Oct 2020, 1:00PM ET 4,800 18.10 4,500 20.60
CIN @ IND Sun, 18 Oct 2020, 1:00PM ET 4,600 10.30 4,000 11.80
CIN @ BAL Sun, 11 Oct 2020, 1:00PM ET 4,600 0.90 4,100 1.40
JAC @ CIN Sun, 4 Oct 2020, 1:00PM ET 4,800 1.90 4,400 1.90
Date Team Game Score RuAtt RuYd RuAvg RuTD Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
13 Dec 2020 CIN DAL @ CIN 30:7 3 8 2.7 0 3 15 5 0 1.8 4.3
6 Dec 2020 CIN CIN @ MIA 7:19 12 30 2.5 0 2 -1 -0.5 0 3.9 4.9
29 Nov 2020 CIN NYG @ CIN 19:17 8 32 4 0 2 17 8.5 0 5.9 6.9
22 Nov 2020 CIN CIN @ WSH 9:20 9 18 2 0 4 37 9.3 0 7.5 9.5
15 Nov 2020 CIN CIN @ PIT 10:36 8 30 3.8 0 4 17 4.3 0 6.7 8.7
1 Nov 2020 CIN TEN @ CIN 20:31 15 62 4.1 1 3 16 5.3 1 21.3 22.8
25 Oct 2020 CIN CLE @ CIN 37:34 13 37 2.8 0 5 59 11.8 1 18.1 20.6
18 Oct 2020 CIN CIN @ IND 27:31 8 15 1.9 1 3 13 4.3 0 10.3 11.8
11 Oct 2020 CIN CIN @ BAL 3:27 0 0 0 0 1 4 4 0 0.9 1.4
4 Oct 2020 CIN JAC @ CIN 25:33 2 19 9.5 0 0 0 0 0 1.9 1.9

Bernard is going to be another cheap option with Mixon doubtful to suit up in Week 10. At $5400 on DraftKings, Gio should be less owned but again, look at his matchup. The Steelers may be the best overall defense in the league, although we can note they have given up more rushing yards since Devin Bush has been on the IR. Like Davis, Gio should have a ton of work through the passing game as well, but he may be a nice cheap pivot off of Davis this week.

Next game:

Time:

Odds:

RB

Aaron Jones

Green Bay Packers

Salary: 8,000 6,500
FPPG: 16.88 19.10
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
TB @ GB Sun, 24 Jan 2021, 3:05PM ET 8,000 3.40 6,500 6.40
LAR @ GB Sat, 16 Jan 2021, 4:35PM ET 7,800 17.80 6,800 18.30
CAR @ GB Sat, 19 Dec 2020, 8:15PM ET 8,200 23.30 7,300 27.80
GB @ DET Sun, 13 Dec 2020, 4:25PM ET 8,700 8.50 7,600 9.50
PHI @ GB Sun, 6 Dec 2020, 4:25PM ET 8,400 22.30 7,200 26.80
CHI @ GB Sun, 29 Nov 2020, 8:20PM ET 8,200 9.50 7,000 10.00
GB @ IND Sun, 22 Nov 2020, 4:25PM ET 8,200 15.10 7,200 17.10
JAC @ GB Sun, 15 Nov 2020, 1:00PM ET 8,800 12.00 7,100 14.50
GB @ SF Thu, 5 Nov 2020, 8:20PM ET 8,400 10.40 6,800 12.90
GB @ TB Sun, 18 Oct 2020, 4:25PM ET 8,500 11.60 7,600 13.10
Date Team Game Score RuAtt RuYd RuAvg RuTD Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
24 Jan 2021 GB TB @ GB 31:26 6 27 4.5 0 4 7 1.8 0 3.4 6.4
16 Jan 2021 GB LAR @ GB 18:32 14 99 7.1 1 1 14 14 0 17.8 18.3
19 Dec 2020 GB CAR @ GB 16:24 20 145 7.3 1 3 13 4.3 0 23.3 27.8
13 Dec 2020 GB GB @ DET 31:24 15 69 4.6 0 2 6 3 0 8.5 9.5
6 Dec 2020 GB PHI @ GB 16:30 15 130 8.7 1 3 18 6 0 22.3 26.8
29 Nov 2020 GB CHI @ GB 25:41 17 90 5.3 0 1 0 0 0 9.5 10
22 Nov 2020 GB GB @ IND 31:34 10 41 4.1 1 4 30 7.5 0 15.1 17.1
15 Nov 2020 GB JAC @ GB 20:24 13 46 3.5 0 5 49 9.8 0 12 14.5
5 Nov 2020 GB GB @ SF 34:17 15 58 3.9 0 5 21 4.2 0 10.4 12.9
18 Oct 2020 GB GB @ TB 10:38 10 15 1.5 1 3 26 8.7 0 11.6 13.1

Fire up Jones in what should be a positive game script for the Packers’ run game. One thing to consider is that Jamaal Williams should be back and Tyler Ervin did admirably filling in, so if the game gets too out of hand, Jones could find himself on the sidelines. For the game to get out of hand though, Jones will have factored in at some point so I don’t think we need to be afraid of a lack of production, it just may not be for the entire game.

Next game:

Time:

Odds:

RB

Antonio Gibson

Washington Football Team

Salary: 6,200 5,700
FPPG: 13.16 15.00
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
WSH @ PIT Mon, 7 Dec 2020, 5:00PM ET 6,800 1.40 6,500 1.40
WSH @ DAL Thu, 26 Nov 2020, 4:30PM ET 6,800 34.10 6,000 39.60
CIN @ WSH Sun, 22 Nov 2020, 1:00PM ET 6,500 16.90 5,800 17.40
WSH @ DET Sun, 15 Nov 2020, 1:00PM ET 6,100 20.50 5,600 22.50
NYG @ WSH Sun, 8 Nov 2020, 1:00PM ET 6,200 11.00 5,800 13.50
DAL @ WSH Sun, 25 Oct 2020, 1:00PM ET 5,700 18.80 5,000 21.80
WSH @ NYG Sun, 18 Oct 2020, 1:00PM ET 5,800 7.50 5,500 9.50
LAR @ WSH Sun, 11 Oct 2020, 1:00PM ET 5,800 7.60 5,000 10.10
BAL @ WSH Sun, 4 Oct 2020, 1:00PM ET 5,500 20.80 4,500 22.80
WSH @ CLE Sun, 27 Sep 2020, 1:00PM ET 5,500 11.50 4,700 14.00
Date Team Game Score RuAtt RuYd RuAvg RuTD Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
7 Dec 2020 WSH WSH @ PIT 23:17 2 14 7 0 0 0 0 0 1.4 1.4
26 Nov 2020 WSH WSH @ DAL 41:16 20 115 5.8 3 5 21 4.2 0 34.1 39.6
22 Nov 2020 WSH CIN @ WSH 9:20 16 94 5.9 1 1 10 10 0 16.9 17.4
15 Nov 2020 WSH WSH @ DET 27:30 13 45 3.5 2 4 20 5 0 20.5 22.5
8 Nov 2020 WSH NYG @ WSH 23:20 6 20 3.3 1 3 35 11.7 0 11 13.5
25 Oct 2020 WSH DAL @ WSH 3:25 20 128 6.4 1 0 0 0 0 18.8 21.8
18 Oct 2020 WSH WSH @ NYG 19:20 9 30 3.3 0 4 25 6.3 0 7.5 9.5
11 Oct 2020 WSH LAR @ WSH 30:10 11 27 2.5 0 5 24 4.8 0 7.6 10.1
4 Oct 2020 WSH BAL @ WSH 31:17 13 46 3.5 1 4 82 20.5 0 20.8 22.8
27 Sep 2020 WSH WSH @ CLE 20:34 9 49 5.4 1 3 11 3.7 0 11.5 14

It seems like when Gibson is chalk he underperforms but he goes off when nobody is on him. Well he has another juicy matchup this week against the Lions 4.8 yards per rush attempt, an average of 148 rushing yards per game and are tied for worst in the NFL by allowing 13 rushing touchdowns. With a new quarterback under center this week in Alex Smith, look for Washington to lean on the run game, as well as dump offs on screen passes, which hopefully go to Gibson and not McKissic (who could also be a super sneaky play this week).

Wide Receivers:

Next game:

Time:

Odds:

WR

Terry McLaurin

Washington Football Team

Salary: 7,100 6,300
FPPG: 12.02 15.60
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
SEA @ WSH Sun, 20 Dec 2020, 1:00PM ET 6,900 11.20 6,600 14.70
WSH @ SF Sun, 13 Dec 2020, 4:25PM ET 7,200 3.40 6,700 4.40
WSH @ PIT Mon, 7 Dec 2020, 5:00PM ET 7,400 2.40 6,500 3.40
WSH @ DAL Thu, 26 Nov 2020, 4:30PM ET 7,900 12.70 7,000 16.20
CIN @ WSH Sun, 22 Nov 2020, 1:00PM ET 7,300 10.90 6,900 13.40
WSH @ DET Sun, 15 Nov 2020, 1:00PM ET 7,000 13.70 6,800 18.20
NYG @ WSH Sun, 8 Nov 2020, 1:00PM ET 7,200 21.00 6,500 27.50
DAL @ WSH Sun, 25 Oct 2020, 1:00PM ET 7,100 18.50 5,800 22.00
WSH @ NYG Sun, 18 Oct 2020, 1:00PM ET 6,900 10.90 5,700 14.40
LAR @ WSH Sun, 11 Oct 2020, 1:00PM ET 6,300 4.10 6,100 5.60
Date Team Game Score Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
20 Dec 2020 WSH SEA @ WSH 20:15 7 77 11 0 11.2 14.7
13 Dec 2020 WSH WSH @ SF 23:15 2 24 12 0 3.4 4.4
7 Dec 2020 WSH WSH @ PIT 23:17 2 14 7 0 2.4 3.4
26 Nov 2020 WSH WSH @ DAL 41:16 7 92 13.1 0 12.7 16.2
22 Nov 2020 WSH CIN @ WSH 9:20 5 84 16.8 0 10.9 13.4
15 Nov 2020 WSH WSH @ DET 27:30 7 95 13.6 0 13.7 18.2
8 Nov 2020 WSH NYG @ WSH 23:20 7 115 16.4 1 21 27.5
25 Oct 2020 WSH DAL @ WSH 3:25 7 90 12.9 1 18.5 22
18 Oct 2020 WSH WSH @ NYG 19:20 7 74 10.6 0 10.9 14.4
11 Oct 2020 WSH LAR @ WSH 30:10 3 26 8.7 0 4.1 5.6

The optimizer actually loves Washington this week, even though Alex Smith will be the signal caller. McLaurin has proven he can succeed with any quarterback so far and against a Lions secondary that has allowed 17 receiving touchdowns, we should see plenty of opportunities for McLaurin to score some points this week. McLaurin is 8th in the NFL in air yards so far this year which sets him up for a nice game against Detroit’s porous defense.

Next game:

Time:

Odds:

WR

Tyler Lockett

Seattle Seahawks

Salary: 6,800 6,900
FPPG: 13.46 17.00
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
SEA @ WSH Sun, 20 Dec 2020, 1:00PM ET 7,400 5.40 6,700 7.40
NYJ @ SEA Sun, 13 Dec 2020, 4:05PM ET 7,900 7.70 7,200 10.20
NYG @ SEA Sun, 6 Dec 2020, 4:05PM ET 7,900 9.30 7,400 12.30
SEA @ PHI Mon, 30 Nov 2020, 8:15PM ET 7,900 3.80 6,800 5.30
ARI @ SEA Thu, 19 Nov 2020, 8:20PM ET 7,800 17.20 6,700 21.70
SEA @ LAR Sun, 15 Nov 2020, 4:25PM ET 7,400 9.10 6,500 11.60
SEA @ BUF Sun, 8 Nov 2020, 1:00PM ET 7,400 6.00 6,800 8.00
SF @ SEA Sun, 1 Nov 2020, 4:25PM ET 7,200 5.30 7,100 7.30
SEA @ ARI Sun, 25 Oct 2020, 8:20PM ET 7,400 45.50 6,600 56.00
MIN @ SEA Sun, 11 Oct 2020, 8:20PM ET 7,400 6.40 6,900 8.40
Date Team Game Score Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
20 Dec 2020 SEA SEA @ WSH 20:15 4 34 8.5 0 5.4 7.4
13 Dec 2020 SEA NYJ @ SEA 3:40 5 52 10.4 0 7.7 10.2
6 Dec 2020 SEA NYG @ SEA 17:12 6 63 10.5 0 9.3 12.3
30 Nov 2020 SEA SEA @ PHI 23:17 3 23 7.7 0 3.8 5.3
19 Nov 2020 SEA ARI @ SEA 21:28 9 67 7.4 1 17.2 21.7
15 Nov 2020 SEA SEA @ LAR 16:23 5 66 13.2 0 9.1 11.6
8 Nov 2020 SEA SEA @ BUF 34:44 4 40 10 0 6 8
1 Nov 2020 SEA SF @ SEA 27:37 4 33 8.3 0 5.3 7.3
25 Oct 2020 SEA SEA @ ARI 34:37 15 200 13.3 3 45.5 56
11 Oct 2020 SEA MIN @ SEA 26:27 4 44 11 0 6.4 8.4

DFS players are having a difficult time deciding which Seahawks’ receiver to play each week as Metcalf and Lockett seemingly alternate huge weeks. This week, I expect Jalen Ramsay to be on DK Metcalf all game long. Similar to Lockett going off against Arizona with Patrick Peterson on Metcalf, look for Lockett to thrive in the slot this week as Wilson will need to get the ball out quick with Aaron Donald breathing down his neck. Be weary though that the Rams have allowed the fewest touchdowns to pass-catchers in the NFL so far this season with only 9, so this is a usage/yardage play with touchdown upside.

Next game:

Time:

Odds:

WR

Jakeem Grant

Miami Dolphins

Salary: 4,800 3,700
FPPG: 4.95 6.20
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
KC @ MIA Sun, 13 Dec 2020, 1:00PM ET 4,900 4.70 3,400 6.20
CIN @ MIA Sun, 6 Dec 2020, 1:00PM ET 4,800 5.20 3,500 6.20
MIA @ NYJ Sun, 29 Nov 2020, 1:00PM ET 4,800 2.50 3,700 3.50
MIA @ DEN Sun, 22 Nov 2020, 4:05PM ET 4,600 2.50 3,500 3.50
LAC @ MIA Sun, 15 Nov 2020, 4:05PM ET 4,600 12.30 3,000 14.30
MIA @ ARI Sun, 8 Nov 2020, 4:25PM ET 4,600 5.50 3,000 7.50
LAR @ MIA Sun, 1 Nov 2020, 1:00PM ET 4,600 8.00 3,000 8.50
NYJ @ MIA Sun, 18 Oct 2020, 4:05PM ET 4,700 6.80 3,000 8.80
MIA @ SF Sun, 11 Oct 2020, 4:05PM ET 4,600 -0.10 3,000 0.40
SEA @ MIA Sun, 4 Oct 2020, 1:00PM ET 4,700 5.10 3,000 6.60
Date Team Game Score Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
13 Dec 2020 MIA KC @ MIA 33:27 3 32 10.7 0 4.7 6.2
6 Dec 2020 MIA CIN @ MIA 7:19 2 42 21 0 5.2 6.2
29 Nov 2020 MIA MIA @ NYJ 20:3 2 15 7.5 0 2.5 3.5
22 Nov 2020 MIA MIA @ DEN 13:20 2 12 6 0 2.5 3.5
15 Nov 2020 MIA LAC @ MIA 21:29 4 43 10.8 1 12.3 14.3
8 Nov 2020 MIA MIA @ ARI 34:31 4 35 8.8 0 5.5 7.5
1 Nov 2020 MIA LAR @ MIA 17:28 1 15 15 0 8 8.5
18 Oct 2020 MIA NYJ @ MIA 0:24 4 48 12 0 6.8 8.8
11 Oct 2020 MIA MIA @ SF 43:17 1 6 6 0 -0.1 0.4
4 Oct 2020 MIA SEA @ MIA 31:23 3 36 12 0 5.1 6.6

Anybody like minimum salary players on DraftKings who have a chance to go off this week? Preston Williams is on the IR and the Dolphins have almost zero run game without Myles Gaskin in the lineup. So they have been using Grant on jet sweeps and other creative plays to get yardage down the field. While everyone may be on DeVante Parker this week, why not throw in Grant as a low floor but high ceiling play at minimum cost. Take advantage of the value and pivot on your top plays!

Next game:

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Odds:

WR

Jerry Jeudy

Denver Broncos

Salary: 5,100 4,200
FPPG: 7.14 8.90
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
BUF @ DEN Sat, 19 Dec 2020, 4:30PM ET 5,300 2.40 3,900 2.90
DEN @ CAR Sun, 13 Dec 2020, 1:00PM ET 5,600 5.20 4,700 6.20
DEN @ KC Sun, 6 Dec 2020, 8:20PM ET 5,700 1.00 4,600 1.50
NO @ DEN Sun, 29 Nov 2020, 4:05PM ET 5,700 0 5,100 0
MIA @ DEN Sun, 22 Nov 2020, 4:05PM ET 5,700 5.20 5,300 6.70
DEN @ LV Sun, 15 Nov 2020, 4:05PM ET 5,800 8.80 5,600 10.80
DEN @ ATL Sun, 8 Nov 2020, 1:00PM ET 5,700 22.00 4,700 28.50
LAC @ DEN Sun, 1 Nov 2020, 4:05PM ET 5,600 9.30 4,800 11.30
KC @ DEN Sun, 25 Oct 2020, 4:25PM ET 5,600 3.00 5,100 4.00
DEN @ NE Sun, 18 Oct 2020, 1:00PM ET 5,700 4.20 5,500 5.20
Date Team Game Score Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
19 Dec 2020 DEN BUF @ DEN 48:19 1 19 19 0 2.4 2.9
13 Dec 2020 DEN DEN @ CAR 32:27 2 42 21 0 5.2 6.2
6 Dec 2020 DEN DEN @ KC 16:22 1 5 5 0 1 1.5
29 Nov 2020 DEN NO @ DEN 31:3 0 0 0 0 0 0
22 Nov 2020 DEN MIA @ DEN 13:20 3 37 12.3 0 5.2 6.7
15 Nov 2020 DEN DEN @ LV 12:37 4 68 17 0 8.8 10.8
8 Nov 2020 DEN DEN @ ATL 27:34 7 125 17.9 1 22 28.5
1 Nov 2020 DEN LAC @ DEN 30:31 4 73 18.3 0 9.3 11.3
25 Oct 2020 DEN KC @ DEN 43:16 2 20 10 0 3 4
18 Oct 2020 DEN DEN @ NE 18:12 2 32 16 0 4.2 5.2

DK Metcalf, Stefon Diggs, Tyreek Hill, Allen Robinson, Calvin Ridley……..Jerry Jeudy? Yes, the rookie wide receiver for the Broncos is sixth in the NFL in air yards this year which means he is getting targeted a ton and down the field. He finally had a blowup game last week against Atlanta, and will look to continue this week against the Raiders who give up an average of 267 passing yards per game to opposing offenses and an average of 7.4 yards per passing completion. Jeudy is going to be a low-owned, high upside flyer that is perfect for GPP lineups.

Tight Ends:

Next game:

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Odds:

TE

T.J. Hockenson

Detroit Lions

Salary: 5,800 4,600
FPPG: 9.19 11.40
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
DET @ TEN Sun, 20 Dec 2020, 1:00PM ET 6,200 0.80 5,200 2.80
GB @ DET Sun, 13 Dec 2020, 4:25PM ET 6,000 13.30 5,000 16.30
DET @ CHI Sun, 6 Dec 2020, 1:00PM ET 6,100 11.90 5,000 15.40
HOU @ DET Thu, 26 Nov 2020, 12:30PM ET 6,000 11.40 4,700 13.90
DET @ CAR Sun, 22 Nov 2020, 1:00PM ET 6,000 8.80 4,200 10.80
WSH @ DET Sun, 15 Nov 2020, 1:00PM ET 6,200 2.30 5,100 3.30
DET @ MIN Sun, 8 Nov 2020, 1:00PM ET 6,000 12.40 5,100 14.90
IND @ DET Sun, 1 Nov 2020, 1:00PM ET 6,000 10.00 5,300 13.50
DET @ ATL Sun, 25 Oct 2020, 1:00PM ET 5,900 14.40 5,100 16.90
DET @ JAC Sun, 18 Oct 2020, 1:00PM ET 5,700 8.70 5,300 9.70
Date Team Game Score Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
20 Dec 2020 DET DET @ TEN 25:46 2 18 9 0 0.8 2.8
13 Dec 2020 DET GB @ DET 31:24 6 43 7.2 1 13.3 16.3
6 Dec 2020 DET DET @ CHI 34:30 7 84 12 0 11.9 15.4
26 Nov 2020 DET HOU @ DET 41:25 5 89 17.8 0 11.4 13.9
22 Nov 2020 DET DET @ CAR 0:20 4 68 17 0 8.8 10.8
15 Nov 2020 DET WSH @ DET 27:30 2 13 6.5 0 2.3 3.3
8 Nov 2020 DET DET @ MIN 20:34 5 39 7.8 1 12.4 14.9
1 Nov 2020 DET IND @ DET 41:21 7 65 9.3 0 10 13.5
25 Oct 2020 DET DET @ ATL 23:22 5 59 11.8 1 14.4 16.9
18 Oct 2020 DET DET @ JAC 34:16 2 17 8.5 1 8.7 9.7

Back to the well with Hockenson who managed to continue his streak of a good yardage game or scoring a touchdown each week. With Kenny Golladay ruled out once again, look for Matthew Stafford to lean on his tight end in the red zone again, especially against a Washington team that is giving up an average of 15.43 fantasy points to tight ends and allowed six tight end touchdowns already this season. With Washington possessing a decent pass rush, Stafford will want to get the ball out quick, and Hockenson can dominate the middle of the field in the short area zone.

Next game:

Time:

Odds:

TE

Robert Tonyan

Green Bay Packers

Salary: 5,700 3,600
FPPG: 9.91 11.70
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
TB @ GB Sun, 24 Jan 2021, 3:05PM ET 5,700 10.20 3,600 12.20
LAR @ GB Sat, 16 Jan 2021, 4:35PM ET 6,200 8.00 4,200 10.00
CAR @ GB Sat, 19 Dec 2020, 8:15PM ET 6,500 9.30 4,500 10.80
GB @ DET Sun, 13 Dec 2020, 4:25PM ET 5,900 12.10 4,200 14.60
PHI @ GB Sun, 6 Dec 2020, 4:25PM ET 5,900 11.90 3,700 13.90
CHI @ GB Sun, 29 Nov 2020, 8:20PM ET 5,800 15.20 3,400 17.70
GB @ IND Sun, 22 Nov 2020, 4:25PM ET 5,600 12.90 3,200 15.40
JAC @ GB Sun, 15 Nov 2020, 1:00PM ET 5,700 4.80 3,600 6.30
GB @ SF Thu, 5 Nov 2020, 8:20PM ET 6,100 1.00 4,000 1.50
MIN @ GB Sun, 1 Nov 2020, 1:00PM ET 5,900 10.40 4,300 12.90
Date Team Game Score Rec ReYd ReAvg ReTD FD FPts DK FPts
24 Jan 2021 GB TB @ GB 31:26 4 22 5.5 1 10.2 12.2
16 Jan 2021 GB LAR @ GB 18:32 4 60 15 0 8 10
19 Dec 2020 GB CAR @ GB 16:24 3 18 6 1 9.3 10.8
13 Dec 2020 GB GB @ DET 31:24 5 36 7.2 1 12.1 14.6
6 Dec 2020 GB PHI @ GB 16:30 4 39 9.8 1 11.9 13.9
29 Nov 2020 GB CHI @ GB 25:41 5 67 13.4 1 15.2 17.7
22 Nov 2020 GB GB @ IND 31:34 5 44 8.8 1 12.9 15.4
15 Nov 2020 GB JAC @ GB 20:24 3 33 11 0 4.8 6.3
5 Nov 2020 GB GB @ SF 34:17 1 5 5 0 1 1.5
1 Nov 2020 GB MIN @ GB 28:22 5 79 15.8 0 10.4 12.9

He has been hot and cold this year, but Tonyan has a great chance to rack up some points against a Jacksonville defense that is allowing an average of 15.60 fantasy points to tight ends and has already allowed seven tight end touchdowns this season. At just $3600 on DraftKings Tonyan makes for a great way to add some high end players to supplement your Packers stack. Given the windy conditions, Rodgers may be looking in the short-range passing game which opens things up for Tonyan. While everyone and their dog are on a Rodger-Adams stack, why not diversify with a Rodgers-Tonyan stack to differentiate from the field.