NFL Thanksgiving Slate GPP Targets

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Quarterback:

It’s going to be really hard to get away from Deshaun now that there are only two games on the slate. For what it’s worth I think every quarterback has an argument to be played. Watson has the highest ceiling on the slate though, indoors, against a pretty bad Lions’ defense. With a run game that has been pathetic without David Johnson, Watson has been forced to shoulder the offensive load. The Lions are allowing an average of nearly 260 passing yards per game at an average of 7.3 yards per attempt. Fire up your Texans stacks here as Will Fuller could be in for a massive day. The Lions also have allowed 17 rushing touchdowns so look for Deshaun to use his legs in the red zone.

I also do like Stafford, but keep an eye on the Lions’ injury reports today as Golladay, Amendola, Swift, and Hockenson have all been limited or held out. It looks like it’ll take a miracle for Golladay to suit up so that obviously lowers Stafford’s ceiling.

The second highest ceiling on the slate could be Andy Dalton believe it or not. Washington rates out as a good pass defense but its probably because most teams just run the ball on them. Washington also does a great job of killing time off the clock they dink and dunk down the field and play pretty conservatively. I think Dallas has the offensive line to deal with Washington’s pass rush which is their strongest on-field unit. Dallas just has too many weapons and Dalton finally looks comfortable in that offense. It could blow up in your face, but it could also give you leverage at a cheaper price off of the chalk Watson stack.

 

Running Backs:

This is of course contingent on if Swift plays, but he has a great matchup against a Texans run defense that allows a league worst 5.1 yards per rush attempt and 159.3 rushing yards per game. Add on Swift’s receiving numbers, especially with the chance of Golladay and Amendola being out, and he should be lined up for a monster game. With a lot of people running back Houston stacks with Marvin Jones, you can be contrarian and run it back with Swift instead.

A third week in a row? Yes please! Gibson paid off once again for us in Week 11 and he has one of the best matchups in Week 12 against a Cowboys run defense that allows 153.8 rushing yards per game 4.9 rushing yards per attempt, and oh yeah, in their first meeting Gibson went off for 128 yards and a touchdown. If you want to zig, JD McKissic offers some incredible PPR upside, as he has 33 (!) targets in the last three games under Alex Smith.

Wide Receivers:

Absolutely play McLaurin in some lineups, but in his limited playing time Steve Sims has been explosive. He caught a touchdown last week, and has been second amongst wide receivers in targets behind McLaurin the past few games since returning from injury. He is also used in the rushing game on jet sweeps and has a ton of speed in the open field. On DraftKings he is dirt cheap at only $3200, and I expect him to be relatively low-owned.

If we can reasonably expect Golladay and Amendola to miss Thursday’s game with injuries, Marvin Hall becomes an intriguing GPP play at dirt-cheap price tags. Hall is a boom or bust player and while Marvin Jones will act as the possession receiver, Stafford has taken shots downfield to Hall in nearly every game. This Texans’ secondary is terrible and we saw of all teams the Patriots take advantage with deep throws in Week 11.

With Dalton back in Week 11, Lamb was second on the team in targets to Amari Cooper, but he just looked way more explosive with his touches. Lamb also has the benefit of having some rush plays designed for him out of the backfield, and certainly has Dalton’s eye in the end zone. With plenty of salary to go around this week, I expect a lot of people to play Amari as he is the big name, but Lamb is operating as a WR1B, rather than a WR2. He has just as high of a floor and perhaps a higher ceiling.

Tight Ends:

Tied with Lamb behind Cooper for the second most targets on the Cowboys last week, as well as the game-winning touchdown in the fourth quarter, Dalton has leaned on Schultz as a safety valve, especially against teams with good pass rushes like Washington. The Football Team is also allowing an average of 11 fantasy points per game to the tight end position so I like Schultz as a full stack with Dalton.

He didn’t do much against Carolina, but nobody on Detroit did. With Golladay expected to be out and Amendola looking like he may miss the game as well, Hockenson should lineup as the number two target behind Marvin Jones. Houston allows over 10 fantasy points per game to the tight end position and Hockenson is always Stafford’s go to in the end zone.