Look with only four games on the board you have to get a little creative and Mayfield is playing in the game with the highest total by a mile. We saw what Baker did to the Steelers, the number one ranked defense this season by DVOA, now he gets to face the 22nd ranked defense in the Chiefs. The Browns should be trailing in this game, and even when they were up big against Pittsburgh the Browns offense never let up. I expect a heavy percentage of lineups to have Mahomes at quarterback so lets pivot a little and stay within that same game. I love the contrarian Mayfield-Chubb or Mayfield-Hunt stack this week.
Let’s zig away from Mahomes, Rodgers, and Lamar this week and head to New Orleans where the Saints host Tom Brady and the Bucs. Brees has already torched this Tampa defense for six touchdowns in the first two meetings, and with a healthy Michael Thomas back, look for New Orleans to go all out in what could potentially be their quarterback’s last ever game. When is the last time we saw Drew Brees at $5600 on DraftKings? Playing him gives you a lot of time to spend up at other positions.
This looks like it could be a heavy workload game for Chubb as the Browns try and keep Mahomes and the Chiefs off the field. Chubb has proven he is matchup proof, but against a Chiefs defense that has been highly susceptible to the run in recent years, I expect Chubb and Hunt to continuously grind away all game long.
This is the position to pay up for this week and it is common knowledge that the best way to beat the Buccaneers is in the slot. Kamara has at least five receptions in both games versus Tampa Bay, and has scored in each game as well. With Carlton Davis most likely shadowing Michael Thomas, look for Kamara to be able to expose slot cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting all game long.
One angle not talked about a lot this week is the Rams offense matchup against the Packers defense. Much of the discussion has been around Jared Goff’s struggles in cold weather as well as his surgically repaired thumb. What have we ever just stopped to think: what if Goff plays well? These are the angles we need to take when multi-entering GPPs. The Rams are a difficult offense to figure out receiver wise in terms of which cornerback would shadow who. My guess is that they stick to sides but Jaire Alexander will more likely deal with Robert Woods more than Kupp who primarily stays in the slot. Some games are Woods games and some are Kupp games.
Not a lot of people are targeting the Tampa Bay offense this week but if we expect the Saints to be winning, should we not be expecting the Bucs to throw? Godwin has been on fire, including last week where we wrote him up again, and has scored a touchdown in four straight games now. Even with Antonio Brown coming on and Mike Evans as a downfield threat, Godwin has been the consistent slot receiver that Brady has leaned on.
I think this is the obvious chalk play of the week. Kelce is facing Browns defense that has been the third worst in the NFL against the tight end position this year, and allowed Ebron to catch 7 of 11 targets for 62 yards and a touchdown last week. Kelce could absolutely dominate this game single-handedly and I love playing all of the Kelce over receiving props as well this week.