Adam Pfeifer’s NBA Drill Down

Drill Down | Top Plays Based On Advanced Statistics | NBA DFS Picks


 

What’s going on, team RC?

Hopefully everyone had themselves a good weekend. The NFL tools and optimizer were solid and we see a lot of subscribers in the green on Sunday night which is always what we aim for. We’ll look to keep it going tonight with an 11-game NBA slate that already features a ton of value. You’ll probably be able to roster whoever you want this evening but with 11 games, there are clearly a lot of guys to choose from, making it a bit tricky when it comes to roster construction.


Paint Touches

Next game:

BKN @ PHI

Time:

Wed, 12th Dec, 07:00PM ET

Odds:

PHI -5.5 / O/U 225.0

C

Joel Embiid

Philadelphia 76ers

Salary: 10,700 10,500
FPPG: 51.70 53.50
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
DET @ PHI Mon, 10 Dec 2018, 7:00PM ET 10,400 47.10 9,800 45.50
PHI @ TOR Wed, 5 Dec 2018, 8:00PM ET 10,700 33.90 10,300 36.00
MEM @ PHI Sun, 2 Dec 2018, 6:00PM ET 11,200 38.30 10,600 40.50
WAS @ PHI Fri, 30 Nov 2018, 7:00PM ET 11,000 43.00 10,900 42.75
NYK @ PHI Wed, 28 Nov 2018, 7:00PM ET 11,100 58.30 11,200 59.00
PHI @ BKN Sun, 25 Nov 2018, 6:00PM ET 11,700 54.40 10,900 56.50
CLE @ PHI Fri, 23 Nov 2018, 7:30PM ET 11,500 40.90 10,600 45.00
NOP @ PHI Wed, 21 Nov 2018, 7:00PM ET 11,200 55.80 10,800 60.75
PHX @ PHI Mon, 19 Nov 2018, 7:00PM ET 11,500 60.90 11,100 62.25
PHI @ CHA Sat, 17 Nov 2018, 7:00PM ET 11,100 55.70 10,700 57.75
Season Period Team Pts/G Reb/G Ast/G Stl/G Blk/G Min/G
2018 REG PHI 26.3 13.2 3.6 0.5 2.0 34.3
2017 PST PHI 21.4 12.6 3.0 0.9 1.9 34.8
2017 REG PHI 22.9 11.0 3.2 0.6 1.8 30.3
2016 REG PHI 20.2 7.8 2.1 0.9 2.5 25.4
2015 REG PHI 0 0 0 0 0 0
2014 REG PHI 0 0 0 0 0 0
Date Team Game Score Pts Reb Ast Stl Blk Min FD FPts DK FPts
10 Dec 2018 PHI DET @ PHI 102:116 24 8 3 2 2 32:42 47.10 45.50
5 Dec 2018 PHI PHI @ TOR 102:113 10 12 5 0 2 36:25 33.90 36.00
2 Dec 2018 PHI MEM @ PHI 95:103 15 14 3 1 1 37:46 38.30 40.50
30 Nov 2018 PHI WAS @ PHI 98:123 16 15 0 0 3 22:18 43.00 42.75
28 Nov 2018 PHI NYK @ PHI 91:117 26 14 7 1 1 30:16 58.30 59.00
25 Nov 2018 PHI PHI @ BKN 127:125 32 12 4 0 2 36:16 54.40 56.50
23 Nov 2018 PHI CLE @ PHI 121:112 24 12 3 0 0 32:52 40.90 45.00
21 Nov 2018 PHI NOP @ PHI 120:121 31 19 2 0 2 32:10 55.80 60.75
19 Nov 2018 PHI PHX @ PHI 114:119 33 17 1 3 1 35:32 60.90 62.25
17 Nov 2018 PHI PHI @ CHA 122:119 33 11 3 1 2 40:07 55.70 57.75

Andre Drummond paint touches per game: 14.4 (most in NBA)

There was zero doubt that Embiid would be featured in this article today. Zero. There is a lot going for the Philadelphia big man tonight. Let’s start with the fact that his $9,800 price tag on DraftKings is the lowest it has been since Halloween. I’ll play Embiid at under $10,000 on DK against the ’88 Pistons, to be honest. Of course, a lot of people are going to use Embiid because he and Andre Drummond aren’t exactly fond of each other. However, I’ll be playing him because he absolutely owns Drummond and he recently stated he owns real estate in Drummond’s mind, which might be true. In five career meetings against Drummond, Embiid has posted three 30-point games, while averaging nearly 50 fantasy points per contest. We know Embiid lives at the free throw line and this feels like one of those 15 free-throw attempt games from the big man. During those five meetings, Drummond is averaging 4.6 personal fouls per game against Embiid, who currently ranks second in personal fouls drawn per game in 2018 at 7.9, which is actually right behind his opponent in this game, Blake Griffin (8.1). And while people may view this Detroit matchup as difficult because of their two bigs, it really hasn’t been, as the Pistons rank 26th in terms of fantasy points allowed to centers, while coughing up the eighth-most paint points per contest (50.3). The Pistons are also allowing teams to shoot 65.9 percent on defended field goals from within six feet of the basket, which is the fifth-highest rate in basketball. Speaking of the paint, Drummond lives there, averaging a league-leading 14.4 paint touches per game, which will keep Embiid around the rim, providing him with ample rebounding and shot-blocking upside. Embiid has ridiculous upside on any night but especially in tonight’s spot at his decreased price tag.

Assist Rate

Next game:

BOS @ WAS

Time:

Wed, 12th Dec, 07:00PM ET

Odds:

WAS +3.5 / O/U 220.5

SF

Tomas Satoransky

Washington Wizards

Salary: 4,500 4,400
FPPG: 14.21 14.00
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
WAS @ IND Mon, 10 Dec 2018, 7:00PM ET 4,300 20.00 4,200 19.75
WAS @ CLE Sat, 8 Dec 2018, 7:30PM ET 4,300 16.90 4,900 17.50
WAS @ ATL Wed, 5 Dec 2018, 7:30PM ET 3,800 38.30 3,700 36.50
WAS @ NYK Mon, 3 Dec 2018, 7:30PM ET 3,800 9.90 3,700 10.50
BKN @ WAS Sat, 1 Dec 2018, 7:00PM ET 3,600 11.70 3,400 12.25
WAS @ PHI Fri, 30 Nov 2018, 7:00PM ET 3,600 22.50 3,400 21.50
WAS @ NOP Wed, 28 Nov 2018, 8:00PM ET 3,700 10.90 3,400 11.50
HOU @ WAS Mon, 26 Nov 2018, 7:00PM ET 4,000 15.90 3,500 16.50
NOP @ WAS Sat, 24 Nov 2018, 8:00PM ET 4,600 8.10 3,500 8.25
WAS @ TOR Fri, 23 Nov 2018, 7:30PM ET 3,700 19.70 3,400 18.75
Season Period Team Pts/G Reb/G Ast/G Stl/G Blk/G Min/G
2018 REG WAS 5.4 2.0 3.0 0.7 0.2 17.4
2017 PST WAS 1.2 1.5 0.5 0 0 10.0
2017 REG WAS 7.2 3.2 3.9 0.7 0.2 22.5
2016 PST WAS 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.1 0 3.6
2016 REG WAS 2.7 1.5 1.6 0.5 0.1 12.6
Date Team Game Score Pts Reb Ast Stl Blk Min FD FPts DK FPts
10 Dec 2018 WAS WAS @ IND 101:109 6 5 4 1 0 27:41 20.00 19.75
8 Dec 2018 WAS WAS @ CLE 101:116 7 2 5 0 0 27:17 16.90 17.50
5 Dec 2018 WAS WAS @ ATL 131:117 14 4 7 2 1 38:27 38.30 36.50
3 Dec 2018 WAS WAS @ NYK 110:107 3 2 3 0 0 23:51 9.90 10.50
1 Dec 2018 WAS BKN @ WAS 88:102 7 1 3 0 0 26:18 11.70 12.25
30 Nov 2018 WAS WAS @ PHI 98:123 8 0 7 2 0 22:37 22.50 21.50
28 Nov 2018 WAS WAS @ NOP 104:125 7 2 1 1 0 22:10 10.90 11.50
26 Nov 2018 WAS HOU @ WAS 131:135 4 2 7 0 0 19:25 15.90 16.50
24 Nov 2018 WAS NOP @ WAS 114:124 2 3 1 1 0 15:02 8.10 8.25
23 Nov 2018 WAS WAS @ TOR 107:125 9 1 3 1 1 24:15 19.70 18.75

Assist rate with John Wall off the floor: 25.8%, highest on team

There are plenty of value guards to choose from tonight and with every 10 minutes that pass, the slate gets more and more wild. We did get early news that John Wall will sit this game out with a heel injury, which will open up a ton of opportunities for everyone on this Washington team. We know Wall is a big time usage player, averaging 82.1 touches per game, the 11th-most in the NBA. He also eats up so much ball-handling, averaging 5.62 seconds per touch, which ranks fifth among all players logging at least 20 minutes per game this season. The only game Wall missed earlier, Satoransky played 38 minutes while Austin Rivers logged 34. However, it is worth noting that Jeff Green missed that game and Kelly Oubre got into foul trouble in the second quarter. So projecting Satoransky for 38 minutes again is probably a mistake but he should still be over 30 and produce. The usage rate doesn’t skyrocket or anything with Wall off the floor but if Rivers starts again, Satoransky might get a bigger bump in usage with the second unit, although this rotation will be rather concentrated. Satoransky had 14 points, seven assists, four rebounds, a block and two steals in that game Wall missed. He’s a big assist guy, sporting a 25.8 percent assist rate with Wall off the floor this season, which is the highest rate on this Washington team. I think Sato plays 32-35 minutes in this game and with Wall out, he should smash his current price tag this evening.

Isolation

Next game:

BOS @ WAS

Time:

Wed, 12th Dec, 07:00PM ET

Odds:

BOS -3.5 / O/U 220.5

PG

Terry Rozier

Boston Celtics

Salary: 5,800 5,700
FPPG: 19.91 20.10
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
NOP @ BOS Mon, 10 Dec 2018, 7:30PM ET 4,100 32.40 5,300 31.75
BOS @ CHI Sat, 8 Dec 2018, 8:00PM ET 3,700 35.60 5,000 35.00
NYK @ BOS Thu, 6 Dec 2018, 8:00PM ET 3,700 33.40 4,100 32.75
BOS @ MIN Sat, 1 Dec 2018, 8:00PM ET 3,800 23.50 4,100 23.25
CLE @ BOS Fri, 30 Nov 2018, 7:00PM ET 3,800 15.10 3,800 17.25
BOS @ NOP Mon, 26 Nov 2018, 8:00PM ET 3,800 17.90 3,900 19.00
BOS @ DAL Sat, 24 Nov 2018, 8:30PM ET 3,800 8.70 4,000 9.75
BOS @ ATL Fri, 23 Nov 2018, 7:30PM ET 3,900 28.10 4,000 26.75
NYK @ BOS Wed, 21 Nov 2018, 7:30PM ET 3,900 0.20 4,100 0.75
BOS @ CHA Mon, 19 Nov 2018, 7:00PM ET 3,800 23.80 3,900 23.50
Season Period Team Pts/G Reb/G Ast/G Stl/G Blk/G Min/G
2018 REG BOS 8.7 4.3 2.4 0.8 0.3 22.8
2017 PST BOS 16.5 5.3 5.7 1.3 0.3 36.6
2017 REG BOS 11.3 4.7 2.9 1.0 0.2 25.9
2016 PST BOS 5.6 2.6 1.9 0.7 0.2 16.3
2016 REG BOS 5.5 3.1 1.8 0.6 0.2 17.1
2015 PST BOS 4.8 3.4 1.2 0.2 0.6 19.8
2015 REG BOS 1.8 1.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 8.0
Date Team Game Score Pts Reb Ast Stl Blk Min FD FPts DK FPts
10 Dec 2018 BOS NOP @ BOS 100:113 10 7 6 2 0 31:30 32.40 31.75
8 Dec 2018 BOS BOS @ CHI 133:77 15 8 2 3 0 25:14 35.60 35.00
6 Dec 2018 BOS NYK @ BOS 100:128 11 7 4 2 1 24:23 33.40 32.75
1 Dec 2018 BOS BOS @ MIN 118:109 7 5 5 0 1 20:34 23.50 23.25
30 Nov 2018 BOS CLE @ BOS 95:128 10 3 3 0 0 20:38 15.10 17.25
26 Nov 2018 BOS BOS @ NOP 124:107 14 2 1 0 0 18:50 17.90 19.00
24 Nov 2018 BOS BOS @ DAL 104:113 4 1 3 0 0 17:17 8.70 9.75
23 Nov 2018 BOS BOS @ ATL 114:96 12 3 3 3 0 25:04 28.10 26.75
21 Nov 2018 BOS NYK @ BOS 117:109 0 1 0 0 0 15:52 0.20 0.75
19 Nov 2018 BOS BOS @ CHA 112:117 8 4 4 2 0 19:27 23.80 23.50

Pelicans rank vs isolation: 31st

Seemingly the entire Boston Celtics roster has been ruled out tonight. They will be without Kyrie Irving, Gordon Hayward, Aron Baynes and Al Horford for tonight’s game against the Pelicans, which will obviously open up a ton for the rest of this team. In the past, Rozier has typically been outstanding from a fantasy perspective in games Kyrie has been out, making him a tough fade tonight, especially with other members of the Celtics out. With Irving off the floor this season, Rozier has 846 possessions, which is easily the most on the team. He is also averaging a solid 0.90 DraftKings points per minute but interestingly enough, he is only sporting a 19 percent usage rate with Kyrie on the bench. Despite Jrue Holiday being a good defender, the Pelicans are coughing up the second-most points per game to opposing point guards. They have also been bad at defending players in isolation, surrendering the second-most points per possession (1.17), eighth-most points and fourth-highest field goal percentage (50.9%) to the play type. When at full strength, Boston isn’t a high isolation team but will likely see a lot of ISO from Rozier tonight with everyone out.

Rebounding Rate

Next game:

MIA @ UTA

Time:

Wed, 12th Dec, 09:00PM ET

Odds:

MIA +8.5 / O/U 210.5

C

Bam Adebayo

Miami Heat

Salary: 6,500 6,100
FPPG: 23.12 22.70
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
MIA @ LAL Mon, 10 Dec 2018, 10:30PM ET 6,500 39.50 5,800 39.50
MIA @ LAC Sat, 8 Dec 2018, 10:30PM ET 5,500 35.60 5,400 34.00
MIA @ PHX Fri, 7 Dec 2018, 9:00PM ET 5,500 43.00 4,200 43.00
ORL @ MIA Tue, 4 Dec 2018, 7:30PM ET 4,900 25.90 4,300 23.25
UTA @ MIA Sun, 2 Dec 2018, 6:00PM ET 4,600 11.90 4,300 10.00
NOP @ MIA Fri, 30 Nov 2018, 8:00PM ET 4,600 27.70 4,300 27.75
ATL @ MIA Tue, 27 Nov 2018, 7:30PM ET 4,600 21.30 4,500 21.00
MIA @ TOR Sun, 25 Nov 2018, 6:00PM ET 3,900 50.70 4,000 50.75
MIA @ CHI Fri, 23 Nov 2018, 8:00PM ET 3,900 33.60 3,800 35.75
BKN @ MIA Tue, 20 Nov 2018, 7:30PM ET 3,900 20.60 3,800 19.50
Season Period Team Pts/G Reb/G Ast/G Stl/G Blk/G Min/G
2018 REG MIA 8.5 7.2 1.5 0.7 0.9 20.3
2017 PST MIA 3.4 4.0 0 0 0.4 15.4
2017 REG MIA 6.9 5.5 1.5 0.5 0.6 19.8
Date Team Game Score Pts Reb Ast Stl Blk Min FD FPts DK FPts
10 Dec 2018 MIA MIA @ LAL 105:108 12 10 5 2 2 28:43 39.50 39.50
8 Dec 2018 MIA MIA @ LAC 121:98 14 8 4 1 1 29:19 35.60 34.00
7 Dec 2018 MIA MIA @ PHX 115:98 22 10 2 1 1 32:04 43.00 43.00
4 Dec 2018 MIA ORL @ MIA 105:90 6 7 1 1 3 23:09 25.90 23.25
2 Dec 2018 MIA UTA @ MIA 100:102 2 2 1 1 1 14:01 11.90 10.00
30 Nov 2018 MIA NOP @ MIA 101:106 8 11 3 0 1 27:50 27.70 27.75
27 Nov 2018 MIA ATL @ MIA 115:113 12 4 1 2 0 13:46 21.30 21.00
25 Nov 2018 MIA MIA @ TOR 115:125 16 21 1 1 2 36:29 50.70 50.75
23 Nov 2018 MIA MIA @ CHI 103:96 14 13 2 0 1 26:21 33.60 35.75
20 Nov 2018 MIA BKN @ MIA 104:92 6 8 0 1 1 16:12 20.60 19.50

Rebounding rate with Hassan Whiteside off the floor: 18.3%

Last night, it was entirely possible that Bam would be fairly highly owned in a great spot against the Lakers. But after all of the value that has opened up, many might not feel that they need to roster him, especially with his price climbing. I still like him quite a bit in tournaments as Hassan Whiteside is still away from the team after the birth of his child. In the last two games with Whiteside out, Adebayo has played 32 and 29 minutes, with the latter being a blowout. He’s totaled 36 points, 18 rebounds, six assists, two blocks and two steals during that span. With Whiteside and his 21.5 rebounding chances per game off the floor, Adebayo sees his total rebounding rate jump to 18.3 percent, the highest of any member of the Heat. Bam is also averaging 1.09 fantasy points per minute with Whiteside off the floor this season and Miami gets a pace-up spot tonight against LeBron James and the Lakers, who operate at the fourth-fastest pace in basketball. They also rank fourth in the league in field goal attempts per game (91.2), which will continue to give Bam ample rebounding opportunities in a good matchup. Los Angeles is coughing up the second-most points and fifth-most rebounds per game to opposing centers on the season.

Also consider: LeBron James, Nikola Jokic, Bradley Beal, Julius Randle, Langston Galloway, Daniel Theis, Zach LaVine, Marcus Morris, Collin Sexton, Wendell Carter Jr.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


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