Adam Pfeifer’s NBA Drill Down

Drill Down | Top Plays Based On Advanced Statistics | NBA DFS Picks


And we’re back.

After a brief hiatus on Monday (you can thank my immune system), we return to the Drill Down tonight with a crazy 10-game slate that features plenty of players out. Finding value shouldn’t be too much of an issue tonight, especially if you are looking in Chicago. As we approach the month of April, the NBA gets really, really weird. Teams are locked in (or out) of playoff spots, which impacts minutes for both veterans and young guys. As always, play close attention to the news throughout the day.


 

Transition

Next game:

Time:

Odds:

SF

LeBron James

Los Angeles Lakers

Salary: 3,500 5,100
FPPG: 51.81 54.70
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
CHA @ LAL Fri, 29 Mar 2019, 10:30PM ET 11,300 38.10 10,300 43.25
WAS @ LAL Tue, 26 Mar 2019, 10:30PM ET 11,000 52.40 10,200 55.25
SAC @ LAL Sun, 24 Mar 2019, 9:30PM ET 10,700 63.70 10,100 69.25
BKN @ LAL Fri, 22 Mar 2019, 10:30PM ET 10,800 54.80 10,300 59.25
LAL @ NYK Sun, 17 Mar 2019, 12:00PM ET 10,700 53.20 N/a 53.50
LAL @ TOR Thu, 14 Mar 2019, 8:00PM ET 11,000 41.80 10,500 43.50
LAL @ CHI Tue, 12 Mar 2019, 8:00PM ET 11,500 55.00 11,200 58.50
BOS @ LAL Sat, 9 Mar 2019, 8:30PM ET 11,400 57.00 10,800 64.00
DEN @ LAL Wed, 6 Mar 2019, 10:30PM ET 12,700 51.90 11,300 53.25
LAC @ LAL Mon, 4 Mar 2019, 10:30PM ET 12,400 49.60 11,200 49.50
Season Period Team Pts/G Reb/G Ast/G Stl/G Blk/G Min/G
2018 REG LAL 27.4 8.5 8.3 1.3 0.6 35.2
2017 PST CLE 34.0 9.1 9.0 1.4 1.1 41.9
2017 REG CLE 27.5 8.7 9.1 1.4 0.9 36.9
2016 PST CLE 32.8 9.1 7.8 1.9 1.3 41.3
2016 REG CLE 26.4 8.6 8.7 1.2 0.6 37.8
2015 PST CLE 26.3 9.5 7.6 2.3 1.3 39.1
2015 REG CLE 25.3 7.4 6.8 1.4 0.6 35.6
2014 PST CLE 30.1 11.3 8.5 1.7 1.1 42.2
2014 REG CLE 25.3 6.0 7.4 1.6 0.7 36.1
Date Team Game Score Pts Reb Ast Stl Blk Min FD FPts DK FPts
29 Mar 2019 LAL CHA @ LAL 115:129 27 3 9 0 0 31:58 38.10 43.25
26 Mar 2019 LAL WAS @ LAL 106:124 23 7 14 1 0 33:54 52.40 55.25
24 Mar 2019 LAL SAC @ LAL 106:111 29 11 11 2 1 35:16 63.70 69.25
22 Mar 2019 LAL BKN @ LAL 111:106 25 9 14 1 1 36:42 54.80 59.25
17 Mar 2019 LAL LAL @ NYK 123:124 33 6 8 0 1 35:00 53.20 53.50
14 Mar 2019 LAL LAL @ TOR 98:111 29 4 6 1 0 31:47 41.80 43.50
12 Mar 2019 LAL LAL @ CHI 123:107 36 10 4 2 0 33:24 55.00 58.50
9 Mar 2019 LAL BOS @ LAL 120:107 30 10 12 0 0 27:46 57.00 64.00
6 Mar 2019 LAL DEN @ LAL 115:99 31 7 7 1 1 31:07 51.90 53.25
4 Mar 2019 LAL LAC @ LAL 113:105 27 8 6 1 1 42:24 49.60 49.50

Transition points per game: 6.6 (2nd in NBA)

Once the Lakers were officially eliminated from playoff contention, the team announced that James would sit on the second end of back-to-back sets and be limited to around 32 minutes per game. It turns out only one of those statements was true, as LeBron has logged at least 35 minutes in three consecutive games. Assuming James will continue to play 35 minutes or more, he is vastly underpriced at $10,200 on DraftKings, especially with seemingly everyone on the Lakers roster out. With Brandon Ingram and Lonzo Ball off the floor this season, James is boasting a massive 36.4 percent usage rate, while his 40.4 percent assist rate also leads the team. He is also averaging nearly 1.6 fantasy points per minute with those guys on the bench. Over his last three games, LeBron is also averaging a whopping 91.5 touches per game and 7.5 minutes of possession per contest. The usage is massive and the minutes seem to be locked in to the 35 range. But even if he did happen to go down to 32 minutes, his usage and price would make it very possible for him to still eclipse value, especially in this matchup. LeBron has been playing a lot more power forward lately, which makes this spot against the Wizards even better. They are surrendering the second-most points per game to opposing power forwards (24.0), as well as the fifth-most assists (3.95) and most rebounds (12.65). The Wizards have also been a bad transition defense, coughing up the third-most points per 100 transition plays (127.1), while teams get out on the break against them at the league’s third-highest rate (16.4 percent). That bodes well for James, who trails only Giannis Antetokounmpo in transition points per game this season (6.6), while shooting 65 percent off the play type. He’ll also see a lot of Bobby Portis, who has been a terrible defender this season, allowing 1.7 isolation points per game, good for the sixth-most in the NBA. James, meanwhile, is currently averaging 4.4 isolation points per game, good for third-most in all of basketball. LeBron is in a really nice spot tonight and assuming he once again reaches 35 minutes, the price tag is just too low.

Rebounding Chances

Next game:

Time:

Odds:

C

Thomas Bryant

Washington Wizards

Salary: 8,000 7,700
FPPG: 23.01 23.00
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
BOS @ WAS Tue, 9 Apr 2019, 7:00PM ET 8,000 23.20 7,700 24.50
WAS @ NYK Sun, 7 Apr 2019, 7:30PM ET 7,800 33.40 7,600 31.75
SAS @ WAS Fri, 5 Apr 2019, 7:00PM ET 8,100 28.40 7,500 30.25
CHI @ WAS Wed, 3 Apr 2019, 7:00PM ET 7,500 46.90 7,000 47.50
WAS @ DEN Sun, 31 Mar 2019, 8:00PM ET 7,000 49.30 6,900 49.00
WAS @ UTA Fri, 29 Mar 2019, 9:00PM ET 7,200 29.90 6,600 33.00
WAS @ PHX Wed, 27 Mar 2019, 10:00PM ET 6,700 50.30 6,000 52.25
WAS @ LAL Tue, 26 Mar 2019, 10:30PM ET 6,000 11.70 5,200 14.50
MIA @ WAS Sat, 23 Mar 2019, 7:00PM ET 5,000 29.70 4,400 33.25
DEN @ WAS Thu, 21 Mar 2019, 7:00PM ET 4,300 37.60 3,800 36.00
Season Period Team Pts/G Reb/G Ast/G Stl/G Blk/G Min/G
2018 REG WAS 10.5 6.3 1.3 0.4 0.9 20.8
2017 REG LAL 1.5 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.1 4.8
Date Team Game Score Pts Reb Ast Stl Blk Min FD FPts DK FPts
9 Apr 2019 WAS BOS @ WAS 116:110 14 6 2 0 0 17:17 23.20 24.50
7 Apr 2019 WAS WAS @ NYK 110:113 17 7 0 1 2 22:38 33.40 31.75
5 Apr 2019 WAS SAS @ WAS 129:112 19 7 2 0 0 32:00 28.40 30.25
3 Apr 2019 WAS CHI @ WAS 115:114 20 12 5 0 2 38:47 46.90 47.50
31 Mar 2019 WAS WAS @ DEN 95:90 20 14 3 0 3 39:55 49.30 49.00
29 Mar 2019 WAS WAS @ UTA 124:128 11 12 3 0 1 27:13 29.90 33.00
27 Mar 2019 WAS WAS @ PHX 124:121 18 19 3 1 1 39:31 50.30 52.25
26 Mar 2019 WAS WAS @ LAL 106:124 7 6 1 0 0 27:38 11.70 14.50
23 Mar 2019 WAS MIA @ WAS 113:108 17 11 1 0 0 35:31 29.70 33.25
21 Mar 2019 WAS DEN @ WAS 113:108 22 8 0 0 2 35:27 37.60 36.00

Rebound chances per game over last two: 18.0

Staying in the same game, Thomas Bryant is now in the starting lineup for Washington, which is interesting because he has been very efficient this season. Bryant has played 35 and 36 minutes over the last two games, resulting in 36 and 33 fantasy points in tougher matchups against Denver and Miami. Things get a lot easier tonight against a Lakers unit that is allowing the fifth-most points (25.2) and third-most rebounds per game (17.1) to opposing centers on the season. During those two games for Bryant, he is averaging an awesome 18 rebounding chances per game, as well as 10.5 paint touches per contest. That bodes well for him in this spot, as 38.5 percent of the shot attempts against Los Angeles this year have come from within four feet of the basket, which is the fifth-highest mark in the league. Bryant is averaging nearly 1.1 fantasy points per minute this season and now that he is starting and logging big minutes, his price tag remains too low across the industry. This game features two teams that play fairly fast, which should lead to a lot of shot attempts heading Bryant’s way. I think he has upside for a big double-double tonight.

Time Of Possession

Next game:

Time:

Odds:

PG

Trae Young

Atlanta Hawks

Salary: 9,000 8,900
FPPG: 35.14 37.50
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
IND @ ATL Wed, 10 Apr 2019, 8:00PM ET 9,000 45.50 8,900 48.75
ATL @ ORL Fri, 5 Apr 2019, 7:00PM ET 8,900 46.40 8,600 45.25
PHI @ ATL Wed, 3 Apr 2019, 7:30PM ET 9,100 60.40 8,400 63.25
ATL @ SAS Tue, 2 Apr 2019, 8:30PM ET 9,100 28.20 8,300 27.25
MIL @ ATL Sun, 31 Mar 2019, 12:30PM ET N/a 47.00 N/a 48.25
POR @ ATL Fri, 29 Mar 2019, 7:30PM ET 8,700 47.30 8,300 48.75
ATL @ NOP Tue, 26 Mar 2019, 8:00PM ET 8,200 54.20 8,200 57.75
PHI @ ATL Sat, 23 Mar 2019, 7:30PM ET 7,700 52.70 7,900 58.50
UTA @ ATL Thu, 21 Mar 2019, 7:30PM ET 7,600 36.90 7,500 41.50
HOU @ ATL Tue, 19 Mar 2019, 7:30PM ET 7,900 39.80 7,200 45.00
Season Period Team Pts/G Reb/G Ast/G Stl/G Blk/G Min/G
2018 REG ATL 19.1 3.7 8.1 0.9 0.2 30.9
Date Team Game Score Pts Reb Ast Stl Blk Min FD FPts DK FPts
10 Apr 2019 ATL IND @ ATL 135:134 23 5 11 2 0 33:42 45.50 48.75
5 Apr 2019 ATL ATL @ ORL 113:149 22 7 6 3 0 27:20 46.40 45.25
3 Apr 2019 ATL PHI @ ATL 122:130 33 7 12 1 0 32:49 60.40 63.25
2 Apr 2019 ATL ATL @ SAS 111:117 15 1 6 1 0 29:56 28.20 27.25
31 Mar 2019 ATL MIL @ ATL 135:136 12 5 16 2 0 35:27 47.00 48.25
29 Mar 2019 ATL POR @ ATL 118:98 26 9 7 1 0 31:39 47.30 48.75
26 Mar 2019 ATL ATL @ NOP 130:120 33 1 12 1 0 31:10 54.20 57.75
23 Mar 2019 ATL PHI @ ATL 127:129 32 6 11 0 1 32:44 52.70 58.50
21 Mar 2019 ATL UTA @ ATL 114:117 23 2 11 0 0 34:15 36.90 41.50
19 Mar 2019 ATL HOU @ ATL 121:105 21 4 12 1 0 33:33 39.80 45.00

Time of possession per game over last 15 games: 8.4 min (3rd in NBA)

Young continues to push Luka Doncic for the Rookie of the Year award. And while Doncic is still the favorite, Trae will try to make every remaining game his best in hopes of stealing the award from under him. The Oklahoma product has just had the ball in his hands so much lately. Over the last 15 games, Young is averaging 88.9 touches and 8.4 minutes of possession per game, numbers that rank sixth and third in the NBA, respectively. During that same span, he is also averaging nearly 5.70 seconds per touch, which is good for fifth-most among qualified players. Given that usage, it is difficult for him to fail for fantasy purposes, especially against a Pelicans defense that has been atrocious at defending point guards all season, coughing up the fourth-most assists per game to the position (9.11). Both of these teams play extremely fast, which bodes well for Young. The Pelicans are also surrendering the fourth-most paint points per game, while Young very quietly ranks fourth in the NBA in drives per game (17.6). People who don’t follow him as closely assume he is a Steph Curry clone, just pulling up from deep and off screens. And while he will definitely do that, Young has been attacking the rim all year long, averaging 6.5 field goal attempts per game off drives. The game environment is conducive to a ton of fantasy appeal, making Young a top-tier point guard play tonight.

Assist Rate

Next game:

Time:

Odds:

SG

Shaquille Harrison

Chicago Bulls

Salary: 6,100 6,000
FPPG: 17.02 16.10
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
CHI @ PHI Wed, 10 Apr 2019, 8:00PM ET 6,100 20.60 6,000 19.25
NYK @ CHI Tue, 9 Apr 2019, 8:00PM ET 6,500 33.90 6,400 31.75
PHI @ CHI Sat, 6 Apr 2019, 8:00PM ET 7,000 12.00 6,200 13.00
CHI @ WAS Wed, 3 Apr 2019, 7:00PM ET 6,100 32.30 6,300 29.50
CHI @ NYK Mon, 1 Apr 2019, 7:30PM ET 6,200 27.50 6,500 27.50
TOR @ CHI Sat, 30 Mar 2019, 8:00PM ET 6,100 32.60 6,000 31.50
POR @ CHI Wed, 27 Mar 2019, 8:00PM ET 4,800 42.00 4,900 42.50
CHI @ TOR Tue, 26 Mar 2019, 7:30PM ET 4,800 34.50 4,400 33.25
UTA @ CHI Sat, 23 Mar 2019, 8:00PM ET 4,500 27.80 4,100 25.75
WAS @ CHI Wed, 20 Mar 2019, 8:00PM ET 3,800 36.20 3,200 33.50
Season Period Team Pts/G Reb/G Ast/G Stl/G Blk/G Min/G
2018 REG CHI 6.5 3.0 1.9 1.2 0.4 19.6
2017 REG PHX 6.6 2.7 2.4 1.1 0.3 16.7
Date Team Game Score Pts Reb Ast Stl Blk Min FD FPts DK FPts
10 Apr 2019 CHI CHI @ PHI 109:125 11 3 0 0 2 20:00 20.60 19.25
9 Apr 2019 CHI NYK @ CHI 96:86 13 7 3 1 2 27:42 33.90 31.75
6 Apr 2019 CHI PHI @ CHI 116:96 8 0 2 1 0 23:27 12.00 13.00
3 Apr 2019 CHI CHI @ WAS 115:114 15 4 1 2 2 33:32 32.30 29.50
1 Apr 2019 CHI CHI @ NYK 105:113 6 10 5 1 0 29:37 27.50 27.50
30 Mar 2019 CHI TOR @ CHI 124:101 15 8 2 1 1 31:36 32.60 31.50
27 Mar 2019 CHI POR @ CHI 118:98 21 10 2 2 0 29:57 42.00 42.50
26 Mar 2019 CHI CHI @ TOR 103:112 15 5 5 3 0 33:24 34.50 33.25
23 Mar 2019 CHI UTA @ CHI 114:83 6 9 2 1 2 38:58 27.80 25.75
20 Mar 2019 CHI WAS @ CHI 120:126 18 6 0 4 0 39:12 36.20 33.50

Assist rate with Dunn, Porter, LaVine off the floor: 22.2%

The Bulls value is sure to be popular tonight, as Kris Dunn, Zach LaVine and Otto Porter are all likely to sit out tonight. Harrison was already playing close to 40 minutes with LaVine out, so I don’t see him getting a bump in minutes, but his usage rate climbs over four percent, while his assist rate jumps from 11.9 to 22.2 percent with those three players off the floor this season. Harrison has shown some strong rebounding and steal potential over the last couple of games and with everyone out tonight, he’ll have to take around double-digit shots by default. The matchup isn’t favorable or anything but playing 40 minutes with three key guys out, Harrison should be able to walk into production and a $4,400 price tag over on DK just isn’t enough.

Also consider: Kemba Walker, Luka Doncic, Lou Williams, Frank Jackson, Ryan Arcidiacono, Rajon Rondo, Bradley Beal, James Harden, Tyus Jones, Josh Okogie, Gary Harris, Dwayne Bacon, Luke Kennard, Taurean Prince, Gordon Hayward, Miles Bridges, Pat Connaughton, PJ Tucker, Julius Randle, Kevin Love, Pascal Siakam, Marvin Bagley, John Collins, Lauri Markkanen, Dario Saric, Karl Anthony-Towns, Clint Capela, LaMarcus Aldridge.

 


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