NBA DFS TARGETS (12/4)

By on

Today attention in the sports world seems to be directed towards the NCAA. Championship Saturday in is one of the most exciting weeks of the college football season so if you haven’t gotten a chance to sit down and watch a game yet, I highly recommend making the time. To pivot in a completely different direction, there are still 6 games remaining on the NBA so if your attention isn’t on college football, maybe you’re directed it here. If you’re looking to narrow down the field of targets for your DFS lineup you’re in the right place. Check out a few of the guys we have our eye on…

James Harden – Harden is an extremely chalky play tonight and is going to set you back a little bit in salary space but tonight he’s very worth it. He has multiple factors working in his favor and you just can’t take a chance on not including him in your lineup. On average Harden generates a total of 1.4 fantasy points per minute and tonight he’s expected to see a significant boost in time spent on the floor. He already plays well into the 30s so this is a big deal. He’s also expected to be guarded by Lonzo Ball who typically allows his opponents 3% more FP/M then their average. This creates upside for a player who more than capable of capitalizing on the opportunity. To reiterate, this is an expensive target but with that being said you can expect a return on investment nearing 5x in fantasy production so we recommend Harden for pretty much all of your lineups as he’s included in 88% of ours.

Next game:

Time:

Odds:

SG

James Harden

Philadelphia 76ers

Salary: 9,300 9,500
FPPG: 47.84 49.80
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
WAS @ PHI Wed, 2 Nov 2022, 6:00PM ET N/a 45.00 N/a 48.75
PHI @ WAS Mon, 31 Oct 2022, 7:00PM ET 9,300 58.90 9,600 61.75
PHI @ CHI Sat, 29 Oct 2022, 8:00PM ET 9,800 41.70 9,600 43.00
PHI @ TOR Fri, 28 Oct 2022, 7:30PM ET 10,200 22.80 9,700 23.50
PHI @ TOR Wed, 26 Oct 2022, 7:30PM ET 10,800 39.90 9,600 42.25
IND @ PHI Mon, 24 Oct 2022, 7:00PM ET 10,000 61.30 9,000 64.25
SAS @ PHI Sat, 22 Oct 2022, 6:00PM ET 9,800 47.80 N/a 48.25
MIL @ PHI Thu, 20 Oct 2022, 7:30PM ET 9,700 61.10 9,000 60.00
PHI @ BOS Tue, 18 Oct 2022, 7:30PM ET 8,900 52.10 8,900 56.50
MIA @ PHI Thu, 12 May 2022, 7:00PM ET N/a 28.30 N/a 31.00
Season Period Team Pts/G Reb/G Ast/G Stl/G Blk/G Min/G
2022 REG PHI 22.0 7.0 10.0 1.1 0.7 36.7
2021 PST PHI 18.6 5.7 8.6 0.8 0.8 39.9
2021 REG BRO 22.5 8.0 10.2 1.3 0.7 37.2
2021 REG PHI 21.0 7.0 10.5 1.3 0.2 37.8
2020 PST BRO 20.2 6.3 8.6 1.7 0.8 35.7
2020 REG HOU 24.8 5.1 10.4 0.9 0.8 36.5
2020 REG BRO 24.6 8.5 10.9 1.3 0.8 36.6
Date Team Game Score Pts Reb Ast Stl Blk Min FD FPts DK FPts
2 Nov 2022 PHI WAS @ PHI 121:111 24 5 10 1 0 35:4 45.00 48.75
31 Oct 2022 PHI PHI @ WAS 118:111 23 7 17 2 0 37:37 58.90 61.75
29 Oct 2022 PHI PHI @ CHI 114:109 15 6 11 2 0 35:59 41.70 43.00
28 Oct 2022 PHI PHI @ TOR 112:90 11 4 4 0 2 33:43 22.80 23.50
26 Oct 2022 PHI PHI @ TOR 109:119 18 7 9 0 1 35:39 39.90 42.25
24 Oct 2022 PHI IND @ PHI 106:120 29 9 11 2 0 34:39 61.30 64.25
22 Oct 2022 PHI SAS @ PHI 114:105 12 9 12 1 2 40:17 47.80 48.25
20 Oct 2022 PHI MIL @ PHI 90:88 31 8 9 2 1 40:19 61.10 60.00
18 Oct 2022 PHI PHI @ BOS 117:126 35 8 7 0 0 37:16 52.10 56.50
12 May 2022 PHI MIA @ PHI 99:90 11 4 9 1 0 42:59 28.30 31.00

Dennis Smith Jr – Smith Jr comes in as maybe the best value start of the night. He’s extremely cheap with a salary in the range of high $3000s to low $4000s with the potential to produce nearly 7x that amount. He’s expected to be matched up against Marcus Smart which isn’t exactly ideal however this Smith is good for just about a fantasy point per minute and we’re expecting him to see a slight usage boost tonight. He’s one of our top starts on both FD and DK being included in just about all of our lineups on both platforms and his projected ownership works in favor as well. He’s expected to be targeted by less than 20% of the field which could be a difference maker when you take into account the size of the slate. We recommend Smith Jr as a target for the majority of your lineups.

Next game:

Time:

Odds:

PG

Dennis Smith Jr.

Charlotte Hornets

Salary: 5,900 5,300
FPPG: 27.62 26.50
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
PHI @ CHA Wed, 23 Nov 2022, 7:00PM ET 6,000 4.00 5,500 4.50
CHA @ WAS Sun, 20 Nov 2022, 6:00PM ET 6,100 23.90 6,300 20.50
CHA @ MIA Thu, 10 Nov 2022, 7:30PM ET 6,600 27.40 6,100 27.50
POR @ CHA Wed, 9 Nov 2022, 7:00PM ET 6,900 32.40 6,300 29.50
WAS @ CHA Mon, 7 Nov 2022, 7:00PM ET 6,900 32.00 6,100 29.75
BRO @ CHA Sat, 5 Nov 2022, 7:00PM ET 7,000 4.20 6,600 4.25
CHA @ MEM Fri, 4 Nov 2022, 8:00PM ET 6,900 25.10 6,400 24.25
CHA @ CHI Wed, 2 Nov 2022, 8:00PM ET 6,900 30.00 6,700 28.75
SAC @ CHA Mon, 31 Oct 2022, 7:00PM ET 6,800 52.40 6,000 48.25
GSW @ CHA Sat, 29 Oct 2022, 7:00PM ET 6,900 33.80 6,300 36.25
Season Period Team Pts/G Reb/G Ast/G Stl/G Blk/G Min/G
2022 REG CHA 9.3 3.3 5.7 1.9 0.7 27.9
2021 REG POR 5.6 2.4 3.6 1.2 0.3 17.3
2020 REG NYK 1.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0 4.1
2020 REG DET 7.3 2.7 3.7 1.0 0.7 19.7
Date Team Game Score Pts Reb Ast Stl Blk Min FD FPts DK FPts
23 Nov 2022 CHA PHI @ CHA 101:107 2 0 2 0 0 11:16 4.00 4.50
20 Nov 2022 CHA CHA @ WAS 102:106 6 2 3 2 2 24:53 23.90 20.50
10 Nov 2022 CHA CHA @ MIA 112:117 12 2 8 1 0 33:33 27.40 27.50
9 Nov 2022 CHA POR @ CHA 105:95 13 2 4 4 0 32:47 32.40 29.50
7 Nov 2022 CHA WAS @ CHA 108:100 3 5 10 0 3 34:12 32.00 29.75
5 Nov 2022 CHA BRO @ CHA 98:94 0 1 2 0 0 6:36 4.20 4.25
4 Nov 2022 CHA CHA @ MEM 99:130 8 3 5 2 1 28:40 25.10 24.25
2 Nov 2022 CHA CHA @ CHI 88:106 10 5 6 2 0 32:10 30.00 28.75
31 Oct 2022 CHA SAC @ CHA 115:108 15 7 8 6 1 36:38 52.40 48.25
29 Oct 2022 CHA GSW @ CHA 113:120 13 9 8 0 0 37:5 33.80 36.25

Keldon Johnson – Across the board on both platforms, Johnson has been included in the highest percentage of our lineups for tonight. At his position their may not be a potential return for your investment then here which is why he’s included at a rate of 92%. He’s set to be matched up against Draymond Green who although has improved on the defensive end of the court in recent performances, has still found it difficult to limit fantasy production. On average he allows his guarded players just about 7% more fantasy points per minute then their average which has been favorable to his opponents all year. Johnson doesn’t have stats that jump off the page but we think he’s in a fantastic spot stand out tonight. We recommend him as a good value start given his listed salary and projected ownership which similar to Smith, is below 20%.

Next game:

Time:

Odds:

SG

Keldon Johnson

San Antonio Spurs

Salary: 6,100 6,800
FPPG: 30.60 32.70
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
LAL @ SAS Sat, 26 Nov 2022, 8:00PM ET 6,100 51.50 6,800 52.00
LAL @ SAS Fri, 25 Nov 2022, 8:00PM ET 7,000 29.80 7,500 30.75
NOP @ SAS Wed, 23 Nov 2022, 8:00PM ET 7,000 5.20 7,400 5.75
SAS @ LAL Sun, 20 Nov 2022, 9:30PM ET 7,000 18.10 7,600 18.75
SAS @ LAC Sat, 19 Nov 2022, 10:30PM ET 7,000 17.90 7,500 17.50
SAS @ POR Tue, 15 Nov 2022, 10:00PM ET 7,100 35.50 7,600 37.75
SAS @ GSW Mon, 14 Nov 2022, 10:00PM ET 7,100 16.70 7,100 18.75
MIL @ SAS Fri, 11 Nov 2022, 8:00PM ET 7,300 33.40 7,100 37.00
MEM @ SAS Wed, 9 Nov 2022, 8:00PM ET 7,400 28.60 7,300 31.50
DEN @ SAS Mon, 7 Nov 2022, 9:30PM ET 7,400 39.00 7,200 42.75
Season Period Team Pts/G Reb/G Ast/G Stl/G Blk/G Min/G
2022 REG SAS 20.4 4.9 3.0 1.0 0.1 31.9
2021 PST SAS 15.0 5.0 4.0 0 0 39.6
2021 REG SAS 17.0 6.1 2.1 0.8 0.2 31.9
2020 PST SAS 11.0 11.0 1.0 0 0 30.7
2020 REG SAS 12.8 6.0 1.8 0.6 0.3 28.6
Date Team Game Score Pts Reb Ast Stl Blk Min FD FPts DK FPts
26 Nov 2022 SAS LAL @ SAS 143:138 26 10 3 2 1 36:30 51.50 52.00
25 Nov 2022 SAS LAL @ SAS 105:94 15 9 2 1 0 35:8 29.80 30.75
23 Nov 2022 SAS NOP @ SAS 129:110 5 1 0 0 0 16:6 5.20 5.75
20 Nov 2022 SAS SAS @ LAL 92:123 12 3 1 1 0 31:0 18.10 18.75
19 Nov 2022 SAS SAS @ LAC 97:119 11 2 1 1 0 27:37 17.90 17.50
15 Nov 2022 SAS SAS @ POR 110:117 20 5 5 2 0 34:3 35.50 37.75
14 Nov 2022 SAS SAS @ GSW 95:132 15 1 1 0 0 18:35 16.70 18.75
11 Nov 2022 SAS MIL @ SAS 93:111 29 2 2 1 0 31:57 33.40 37.00
9 Nov 2022 SAS MEM @ SAS 124:122 16 8 4 0 0 39:44 28.60 31.50
7 Nov 2022 SAS DEN @ SAS 115:109 30 5 2 2 0 35:40 39.00 42.75