NBA DFS TARGETS (12/17)

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8 games to take a look at today in the NBA which is a nice sweet spot where DFS is concerned. We’ve crunched the numbers on tonight’s slate and came up with a few guys that should be worth a look. If you’re having trouble setting your lineup, check out who we have our eye on…

Khris Middleton (MIL) –If Middleton goes tonight you should be firing him in just about every lineup. He’s somebody who can generate a fantasy point per minute on a team missing the majority of their starters. Whether it be an injury or Covid-19 related, the Bucks are crippled so look for Middleton to carry the load. To no surprise he’s expected to see a significant boost in time spent on the floor which generates upside and to add on his matchup is extremely favorable. Herbert Jones tends to allow his guarded players nearly 10% more fantasy points per minute then their average and given the circumstances, tonight this should be exploited. We’ve included Middleton in no less than 90% of our lineups across the board and recommend him as a great start for all contests. His projected ownership is boosted but you can expect a near 6.4x return on your investment so at his position he’s a top guy.

Next game:

NOP @ MIL

Time:

Sun, 29th Jan, 08:00PM ET

Odds:

MIL -9.5 / O/U 233.5

SG

Khris Middleton

Milwaukee Bucks

Salary: 6,400 5,400
FPPG: 21.12 22.20
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
MIL @ IND Fri, 27 Jan 2023, 7:00PM ET 6,000 31.80 6,000 31.00
DEN @ MIL Wed, 25 Jan 2023, 8:00PM ET 6,900 18.90 6,600 19.50
MIL @ DET Mon, 23 Jan 2023, 7:00PM ET 6,900 10.40 6,900 14.50
MIL @ MEM Thu, 15 Dec 2022, 8:00PM ET 6,900 11.90 6,800 13.50
GSW @ MIL Tue, 13 Dec 2022, 7:30PM ET 6,900 26.30 6,000 29.50
MIL @ HOU Sun, 11 Dec 2022, 7:00PM ET 6,900 0 6,400 0
MIL @ DAL Fri, 9 Dec 2022, 10:00PM ET 6,900 35.10 6,500 34.75
SAC @ MIL Wed, 7 Dec 2022, 8:00PM ET 6,900 32.20 7,000 33.00
MIL @ ORL Mon, 5 Dec 2022, 7:00PM ET 7,000 14.70 7,200 14.75
LAL @ MIL Fri, 2 Dec 2022, 7:30PM ET 7,400 29.90 7,700 31.50
Season Period Team Pts/G Reb/G Ast/G Stl/G Blk/G Min/G
2022 REG MIL 11.3 2.6 4.2 0.7 0.1 21.5
2021 PST MIL 14.5 5.0 7.0 1.5 0 35.7
2021 REG MIL 20.1 5.4 5.4 1.2 0.3 32.5
2020 PST MIL 23.6 7.6 5.1 1.5 0.2 40.1
2020 REG MIL 20.4 6.0 5.4 1.1 0.1 33.4
Date Team Game Score Pts Reb Ast Stl Blk Min FD FPts DK FPts
27 Jan 2023 MIL MIL @ IND 141:131 17 4 4 2 0 14:40 31.80 31.00
25 Jan 2023 MIL DEN @ MIL 99:107 10 2 3 1 0 14:55 18.90 19.50
23 Jan 2023 MIL MIL @ DET 150:130 8 2 4 0 0 15:18 10.40 14.50
15 Dec 2022 MIL MIL @ MEM 101:142 3 2 5 1 0 22:23 11.90 13.50
13 Dec 2022 MIL GSW @ MIL 111:128 20 4 3 0 0 28:51 26.30 29.50
11 Dec 2022 MIL MIL @ HOU 92:97 0 0 0 0 0 6:29 0 0
9 Dec 2022 MIL MIL @ DAL 106:105 19 3 5 1 1 31:13 35.10 34.75
7 Dec 2022 MIL SAC @ MIL 113:126 14 6 6 1 0 29:11 32.20 33.00
5 Dec 2022 MIL MIL @ ORL 109:102 5 1 5 1 0 25:51 14.70 14.75
2 Dec 2022 MIL LAL @ MIL 133:129 17 2 7 0 0 26:34 29.90 31.50

Jusuf Nurkic (POR) – On Fanduel this is our top start and you’re getting excellent value for the price he’s currently listed at. He’s sitting at just $6500 which is a listed salary that he’s exceeded in fantasy production in his last 3 performances. We’re expecting more of the same tonight given the multiple factors that are working in his favor. He averages just under 1.2 fantasy points per minute and tonight he’s in a great spot to play above this. His matchup is against Mason Plumlee who doesn’t defend very well and gives up about 8% more fantasy points per minute to his guarded players then their average. He’s also going to see a boost in minutes which should help him to return nearly 6.22x his salary in fantasy production like we’re projecting. His ownership is also on the higher end but he’s a guy that you don’t want to exclude. Give him a look for the majority of your contests.

Next game:

Time:

Odds:

C

Jusuf Nurkic

Portland Trail Blazers

Salary: 7,500 7,000
FPPG: 33.09 34.00
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
UTA @ POR Wed, 25 Jan 2023, 10:00PM ET 7,700 20.80 7,000 21.50
SAS @ POR Mon, 23 Jan 2023, 10:00PM ET 7,200 54.70 7,000 56.25
LAL @ POR Sun, 22 Jan 2023, 9:00PM ET 7,300 9.60 7,000 9.75
PHI @ POR Thu, 19 Jan 2023, 10:00PM ET 7,800 19.20 7,300 19.25
POR @ DEN Tue, 17 Jan 2023, 9:00PM ET 8,100 23.00 7,600 24.00
DAL @ POR Sun, 15 Jan 2023, 9:00PM ET 7,900 30.80 N/a 32.00
DAL @ POR Sat, 14 Jan 2023, 10:00PM ET 8,000 39.70 N/a 43.75
CLE @ POR Thu, 12 Jan 2023, 10:00PM ET 8,000 31.40 6,800 34.50
ORL @ POR Tue, 10 Jan 2023, 10:00PM ET 7,900 48.50 6,100 47.50
POR @ TOR Sun, 8 Jan 2023, 3:30PM ET 6,900 43.60 6,100 46.00
Season Period Team Pts/G Reb/G Ast/G Stl/G Blk/G Min/G
2022 REG POR 14.1 9.7 3.0 0.9 0.9 27.9
2021 REG POR 15.0 11.1 2.8 1.1 0.6 28.2
2020 PST POR 13.2 10.3 2.7 0.5 1.2 28.9
2020 REG POR 11.5 9.0 3.4 1.0 1.1 23.9
Date Team Game Score Pts Reb Ast Stl Blk Min FD FPts DK FPts
25 Jan 2023 POR UTA @ POR 124:134 10 4 4 0 0 18:11 20.80 21.50
23 Jan 2023 POR SAS @ POR 127:147 25 11 7 3 0 26:56 54.70 56.25
22 Jan 2023 POR LAL @ POR 121:112 2 3 2 1 0 15:48 9.60 9.75
19 Jan 2023 POR PHI @ POR 105:95 4 11 0 1 0 23:51 19.20 19.25
17 Jan 2023 POR POR @ DEN 113:122 6 10 2 0 2 29:12 23.00 24.00
15 Jan 2023 POR DAL @ POR 123:140 20 4 4 0 0 20:7 30.80 32.00
14 Jan 2023 POR DAL @ POR 119:136 22 11 3 1 0 22:43 39.70 43.75
12 Jan 2023 POR CLE @ POR 119:113 12 12 4 1 0 32:12 31.40 34.50
10 Jan 2023 POR ORL @ POR 109:106 22 10 1 4 2 30:57 48.50 47.50
8 Jan 2023 POR POR @ TOR 105:117 14 18 4 1 1 37:53 43.60 46.00

Lebron James (LAL) – Of course this is one of the most expensive options on the board and if he’s included, you’ll need to set your lineup accordingly but lets build a case for why this is a good idea. Firstly we’re projecting a return on his extremely high salary nearing 5.5x. That’s pretty average for everybody else but those numbers mean much more for the expensive players. This basically indicates Lebron is in a great position to carry the entire lineup. Will he? No idea but he’s in a good spot. He generates nearly 1.4 fantasy points per minute and tonight is matchup up against Jarred Vanderbilt who has a below average DVP. He’s also expected to see a boost in minutes bringing slight upside to someone who needs none and when you look at his projected ownership, he’s certainly worth the salary space. Definitely take a look at Lebron for cash contests and throw him in a GPP or 2 as well.

Next game:

Time:

Odds:

SF

LeBron James

Los Angeles Lakers

Salary: 10,800 11,600
FPPG: 52.39 54.40
Projection: Upgrade
Pr/$: Upgrade
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
LAL @ BOS Sat, 28 Jan 2023, 8:30PM ET 10,800 61.80 11,600 66.25
SAS @ LAL Wed, 25 Jan 2023, 10:30PM ET 11,100 41.30 11,700 46.75
LAC @ LAL Tue, 24 Jan 2023, 10:00PM ET 11,100 75.10 11,500 77.00
LAL @ POR Sun, 22 Jan 2023, 9:00PM ET 11,200 58.20 11,400 61.25
MEM @ LAL Fri, 20 Jan 2023, 10:00PM ET 11,400 51.80 11,300 50.25
SAC @ LAL Wed, 18 Jan 2023, 10:30PM ET 11,400 60.10 11,500 60.00
HOU @ LAL Mon, 16 Jan 2023, 10:30PM ET 11,000 71.10 11,400 74.00
PHI @ LAL Sun, 15 Jan 2023, 9:30PM ET 11,000 62.60 N/a 64.50
DAL @ LAL Thu, 12 Jan 2023, 10:00PM ET 11,000 59.70 10,900 61.50
LAL @ SAC Sat, 7 Jan 2023, 10:00PM ET 11,400 56.10 10,700 58.00
Season Period Team Pts/G Reb/G Ast/G Stl/G Blk/G Min/G
2022 REG LAL 30.2 8.5 7.1 1.0 0.6 36.3
2021 REG LAL 30.3 8.2 6.2 1.3 1.1 37.3
2020 PST LAL 23.1 7.7 8.3 1.6 0.4 36.9
2020 REG LAL 25.0 7.7 7.8 1.1 0.6 33.5
Date Team Game Score Pts Reb Ast Stl Blk Min FD FPts DK FPts
28 Jan 2023 LAL LAL @ BOS 121:125 41 9 8 0 0 44:12 61.80 66.25
25 Jan 2023 LAL SAS @ LAL 104:113 20 9 11 0 0 35:18 41.30 46.75
24 Jan 2023 LAL LAC @ LAL 133:115 46 8 7 2 1 32:35 75.10 77.00
22 Jan 2023 LAL LAL @ POR 121:112 37 11 4 0 2 35:56 58.20 61.25
20 Jan 2023 LAL MEM @ LAL 121:122 23 9 6 2 2 36:32 51.80 50.25
18 Jan 2023 LAL SAC @ LAL 116:111 32 8 9 1 1 36:30 60.10 60.00
16 Jan 2023 LAL HOU @ LAL 132:140 48 8 9 0 0 35:51 71.10 74.00
15 Jan 2023 LAL PHI @ LAL 113:112 35 8 10 1 1 35:17 62.60 64.50
12 Jan 2023 LAL DAL @ LAL 119:115 24 16 9 2 0 46:45 59.70 61.50
7 Jan 2023 LAL LAL @ SAC 136:134 37 8 7 1 0 37:43 56.10 58.00