Adam Pfeifer MLB Drill Down

Drill Down | Top Plays Based On Advanced Statistics | Hitter and Pitcher Picks | Monday – Friday


Hopefully you played Cody Bellinger last night because that man was way too cheap.

We move onto Tuesday night’s 15-game slate that features some really, really weak pitching options across the board. And the solid pitchers are very expensive, making this an interesting slate, especially on a site like DK where you have to roster two. Coors Field remains on the board with Nolan Arenado sitting at just $5,100 at home against a weak lefty.

You know what to do.


Want to try RC PREMIUM for FREE? Sign up at Monkey Knife Fight!


 

Contact Rate

Next game:

CWS @ KC

Time:

08:15PM ET

Opposing pitcher:

Sparkman (R)

Odds:

CWS 0 / O/U 0

IF

Yoán Moncada

Chicago White Sox

Salary: 3,800 5,000
FPPG: 11.66 9.00
Projection: 13.03 9.82
Pr/$: 3.43 1.96
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
CWS @ KC Mon, 15 Jul, 8:15PM ET 3,600 9.20 4,900 7.00
CWS @ OAK Sun, 14 Jul, 4:07PM ET 3,700 3.00 5,000 2.00
CWS @ OAK Sat, 13 Jul, 4:07PM ET 3,800 3.50 5,000 2.00
CWS @ OAK Fri, 12 Jul, 10:07PM ET 3,800 9.00 4,600 9.00
CHC @ CWS Sun, 7 Jul, 2:10PM ET 3,700 6.00 4,900 5.00
CHC @ CWS Sat, 6 Jul, 7:15PM ET 3,700 27.90 4,900 20.00
DET @ CWS Thu, 4 Jul, 2:10PM ET 3,700 6.00 4,700 5.00
DET @ CWS Wed, 3 Jul, 8:10PM ET 3,800 40.90 4,900 30.00
DET @ CWS Wed, 3 Jul, 2:10PM ET 3,800 12.20 5,200 10.00
MIN @ CWS Sun, 30 Jun, 2:10PM ET 3,600 31.40 4,600 24.00
  YTD - 2019 Splits (v. R) vs Opp
AB 321 228 53
AVG 0.305 0.316 0.377
HR 16 13 4
RBI 49 35 10
SB 6 5 1
H 98 72 20
OPS 0.892 0.928 1.052
SLG 0.530 0.553 0.642
OBP 0.363 0.375 0.411

Sparkman contact rate: 86 percent

I was intrigued by Moncada last night but I view him as an elite play here on Tuesday. The White Sox face Glenn Sparkman, one of the worst starting pitchers in all of baseball this season, especially to left-handed hitters, which is where we prefer Moncada to be hitting. So far this year, Sparkman is coughing up a .274 batting average, .381 wOBA, 10 home runs, 3.0 HR/9, 13.2 percent strikeout rate, 45.7 percent fly ball rate and 48.1 percent hard hit rate to lefty bats. Oh, there is also a 20.8 percent HR/FB rate to that side of the dish, too. Sparkman doesn’t miss many bats, sporting an 86 percent contact rate and 6.8 percent swinging strike rate, two of the worst numbers among qualified pitchers. That bodes well for Moncada, who has been better this season but is still sporting the 12th-lowest contact rate in the majors at 69.1 percent. He is also hitting .316 against right-handed pitching on the year to go along with a .386 wOBA, .237 ISO score, 23.2 percent HR/FB rate and 44.1 percent hard hit rate. Third base is absolutely loaded tonight but Moncada is one of the best options available.

Slider Data

Next game:

CIN @ CHC

Time:

08:05PM ET

Opposing pitcher:

DeSclafani (R)

Odds:

CHC 0 / O/U 0

IF

Anthony Rizzo

Chicago Cubs

Salary: 4,300 4,300
FPPG: 12.50 9.30
Projection: 12.60 9.41
Pr/$: 2.93 2.19
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
CIN @ CHC Mon, 15 Jul, 8:05PM ET 4,200 18.20 4,000 14.00
PIT @ CHC Sun, 14 Jul, 2:20PM ET 4,300 15.90 4,600 12.00
PIT @ CHC Sat, 13 Jul, 2:20PM ET 4,200 12.70 4,400 10.00
PIT @ CHC Fri, 12 Jul, 2:20PM ET 4,200 9.20 0 7.00
CHC @ CWS Sun, 7 Jul, 2:10PM ET 4,300 6.00 4,800 5.00
CHC @ CWS Sat, 6 Jul, 7:15PM ET 4,200 18.50 4,300 14.00
CHC @ PIT Thu, 4 Jul, 4:05PM ET 4,100 24.90 4,600 19.00
CHC @ PIT Wed, 3 Jul, 7:05PM ET 4,100 3.00 4,500 2.00
CHC @ PIT Tue, 2 Jul, 7:05PM ET 4,000 3.00 4,700 3.00
CHC @ PIT Mon, 1 Jul, 7:05PM ET 4,100 9.20 4,600 7.00
  YTD - 2019 Splits (v. R) vs Opp
AB 331 261 26
AVG 0.281 0.307 0.346
HR 19 16 1
RBI 60 51 3
SB 3 2 1
H 93 80 9
OPS 0.912 0.980 1.067
SLG 0.523 0.571 0.615
OBP 0.389 0.409 0.452

Rank vs slider this year: 9th in MLB

Anthony DeSclafani has taken some strides in the strikeout department but is still getting absolutely destroyed by left-handed hitting, making the Cubs stack a strong one tonight. On the year, he is surrendering a whopping .309 batting average, .396 wOBA, 12 home runs, .591 slugging percentage, 2.49 HR/9, 50 percent fly ball rate, 49.3 percent hard hit rate, 18 percent HR/FB rate to lefty bats. Guys like Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber and Jason Heyward make for really strong plays but I couldn’t believe that Rizzo was just $4,300 on DK, making him one of the bets plays of the entire slate. He, of course, is a lefty who also has excelled against the slider, a pitch DeSclafani is throwing just over 24 percent of the time. Rizzo ranks ninth in all of baseball against the slider, while sporting an impressive .271 batting average, .559 slugging percentage and .288 ISO score against the pitch. He is also hitting over .300 against right-handed pitching this year to go along with a 15.6 percent strikeout rate, .407 wOBA, .264 ISO and 43.5 percent hard hit rate. Price included, he is my top first baseman tonight.

Exit Velocity

Next game:

SD @ MIA

Time:

07:10PM ET

Opposing pitcher:

Allen (L)

Odds:

MIA 0 / O/U 0

IF

Starlin Castro

Miami Marlins

Salary: 2,600 2,900
FPPG: 6.91 5.50
Projection: 9.05 7.18
Pr/$: 3.48 2.48
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
NYM @ MIA Sun, 14 Jul, 1:10PM ET 2,500 9.20 2,900 8.00
NYM @ MIA Sat, 13 Jul, 6:10PM ET 2,700 6.00 3,200 6.00
NYM @ MIA Fri, 12 Jul, 7:10PM ET 2,700 12.50 3,000 10.00
MIA @ ATL Sun, 7 Jul, 1:20PM ET 2,400 6.00 2,800 6.00
MIA @ ATL Sat, 6 Jul, 4:10PM ET 2,400 27.90 3,000 22.00
MIA @ ATL Fri, 5 Jul, 7:20PM ET 2,300 6.00 2,900 5.00
MIA @ WSH Thu, 4 Jul, 11:05AM ET 2,200 12.00 2,900 11.00
MIA @ WSH Wed, 3 Jul, 6:05PM ET 2,200 3.00 2,800 3.00
MIA @ WSH Tue, 2 Jul, 7:05PM ET 2,300 6.00 2,500 5.00
PHI @ MIA Sun, 30 Jun, 1:10PM ET 2,100 0 2,800 0
  YTD - 2019 Splits (v. L) vs Opp
AB 364 95 12
AVG 0.250 0.347 0.167
HR 6 3 0
RBI 35 10 4
SB 1 0 0
H 91 33 2
OPS 0.619 0.834 0.481
SLG 0.343 0.474 0.250
OBP 0.276 0.360 0.231

Allen’s average exit velocity: 93 mph

This one definitely might come back to haunt me but I really don’t mind a few Miami righties tonight against Logan Allen. The San Diego lefty is not all that impressive and continues to get hit hard, as his 93 mph average exit velocity is the fifth-worst in all of baseball. He has also been bad against right-handed hitters so far, coughing up a .283 batting average, .321 wOBA, 32 percent line drive rate and massive 55.6 percent hard hit rate to that side of the plate. There are some cheap righties from this Marlins lineup, including Castro, who is just $2,900 on DK and still hits lefties incredibly hard, sporting a 51.9 percent hard hit rate and 27.2 percent line drive rate against the handedness. He is also striking out just 16.9 percent of the time against righties, while sporting a .347 batting average. If you are looking for some salary relief, Castro is not the worst option tonight.

HR/FB Rate

Next game:

NYM @ MIN

Time:

08:10PM ET

Opposing pitcher:

Matz (L)

Odds:

MIN 0 / O/U 0

DH

Nelson Cruz

Minnesota Twins

Salary: 3,800 4,600
FPPG: 12.25 9.10
Projection: 13.14 9.76
Pr/$: 3.46 2.12
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
MIN @ CLE Sun, 14 Jul, 1:10PM ET 3,800 3.00 5,000 3.00
MIN @ CLE Sat, 13 Jul, 7:10PM ET 3,700 6.00 4,900 4.00
MIN @ CLE Fri, 12 Jul, 7:10PM ET 3,900 21.70 4,900 16.00
TEX @ MIN Sun, 7 Jul, 2:10PM ET 4,100 6.00 4,800 4.00
TEX @ MIN Sat, 6 Jul, 2:10PM ET 4,300 0 5,200 0
TEX @ MIN Fri, 5 Jul, 8:10PM ET 4,200 6.00 5,100 5.00
MIN @ OAK Thu, 4 Jul, 4:07PM ET 4,200 18.40 5,200 15.00
MIN @ OAK Tue, 2 Jul, 10:07PM ET 4,100 0 4,900 0
MIN @ CWS Sun, 30 Jun, 2:10PM ET 3,700 22.20 4,300 16.00
MIN @ CWS Sat, 29 Jun, 4:12PM ET 4,000 56.90 4,900 42.00
  YTD - 2019 Splits (v. L) vs Opp
AB 244 54 n/a
AVG 0.275 0.259 n/a
HR 17 5 n/a
RBI 47 8 n/a
SB 0 0 n/a
H 67 14 n/a
OPS 0.916 0.981 n/a
SLG 0.549 0.593 n/a
OBP 0.367 0.388 n/a

HR/FB rate vs LHP: 38.5 percent

Because they are priced egregiously low against a weak pitcher, the Twins are sure to be popular tonight. I really don’t care. I love them tonight against Steven Matz, who is allowing a .399 wOBA, .306 batting average, 15 home runs, 3.21 HR/9 and sporting a 16.9 percent strikeout rate away from home this season. The lefty will face some good righties tonight in a good power park for RHH, making Cruz a top candidate to leave the yard here. Matz is also surrendering a 22.4 percent HR/FB rate, 40.7 percent hard hit rate, 2.09 HR/9 and .340 wOBA to right-handed hitters. We know what Cruz does against left-handed pitching and is also posting a massive 38.5 percent HR/FB rate against the handedness to go along with an idiotic 69.4 percent hard hit rate. Heavens.

Also consider: Jorge Alfaro, Freddie Freeman, Pete Alonso, Matt Olson, Matt Adams, Daniel Vogelbach, CJ Cron, Ketel Marte, Keston Hiura, Mike Moustakas, Jonathan Villar, Adam Frazier, Nolan Arenado, Anthony Rendon, Matt Chapman, Eduardo Escobar, Miguel Sano, Justin Turner, Jaimer Candelario, Hunter Dozier, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Jorge Polanco, Brandon Crawford, Paul DeJong, Juan Soto, George Springer, Kyle Schwarber, Jason Heyward, Joc Pederson, Tommy Pham.

Stacks to target: Cubs, Twins, Indians

Like to Bet on Sports? Try CentSports for your Sports Betting needs!

The content you are trying to access is only available to RotoCurve PREMIUM members

Join now for less than $1 / day