Adam Pfeifer MLB Drill Down

Drill Down | Top Plays Based On Advanced Statistics | Hitter and Pitcher Picks | Monday – Friday


My goodness.

14 games in the baseball world tonight, which means you have a ton of decisions to make when making your DFS lineups. These are the types of slates that drive me crazy because I always feel like I’m leaving someone in an elite spot out of my lineup. Anyway, we move onward and try to send you into the weekend with some buckies in your pocket.

Curveball Data

Next game:

Time:

Opposing pitcher:

Odds:

IF

Alex Bregman

Houston Astros

Salary: 3,900 4,800
FPPG: 12.03 9.20
Projection:
Pr/$:
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
HOU @ TEX Sat, 20 Apr, 8:05PM ET 4,100 12.00 4,900 9.00
HOU @ TEX Fri, 19 Apr, 8:05PM ET 4,000 21.70 4,600 17.00
HOU @ OAK Wed, 17 Apr, 10:07PM ET 3,800 3.00 4,100 2.00
HOU @ OAK Tue, 16 Apr, 10:07PM ET 3,700 29.20 4,600 20.00
HOU @ SEA Sun, 14 Apr, 4:10PM ET 4,000 6.00 4,700 5.00
HOU @ SEA Sat, 13 Apr, 9:10PM ET 4,000 0 4,700 0
NYY @ HOU Tue, 9 Apr, 8:10PM ET 4,000 12.20 4,700 9.00
NYY @ HOU Mon, 8 Apr, 7:10PM ET 4,000 12.20 4,600 9.00
OAK @ HOU Sun, 7 Apr, 2:10PM ET 4,300 18.70 4,600 15.00
OAK @ HOU Sat, 6 Apr, 7:10PM ET 4,000 9.20 4,900 8.00
  YTD - 2019 Splits (v. ) vs Opp
AB 63 n/a n/a
AVG 0.302 n/a n/a
HR 3 n/a n/a
RBI 8 n/a n/a
SB 2 n/a n/a
H 19 n/a n/a
OPS 0.916 n/a n/a
SLG 0.508 n/a n/a
OBP 0.408 n/a n/a

Rank vs curveball since 2018: 2nd in MLB

Ladies and gentlemen, Alex Bregman is the best play on the entire slate tonight. We haven’t seen terrific power from Bregman yet this season but I think that changes tonight. For starters, we know Bregman and the rest of this Houston lineup are always in an incredibly good spot whenever they face a lefty, but they are facing Drew Smyly, a pretty bad lefty. Since the start of last season, Bregman ranks 27th in the majors in average (.309), 20th in wOBA (.397), 13th in strikeout rate (10.8 percent) and 21st in fly ball rate (44.1 percent) against left-handed pitching. Not only does he make a ton of contact against lefties but a ton of quality contact, too. So far this season, Smyly is coughing up a .302 batting average, .378 wOBA, 58.8 percent hard hit rate, 41 percent fly ball rate and 10 percent strikeout rate to right-handed hitters. Yeah, not great. Smyly also heavily relies on the fastball/curveball combo, a pitch mix that Bregman absolutely destroys. Since the start of 2018, only Chicago’s Javier Baez has been more productive against the curve than Bregman, who is hitting .385 with a .596 slugging percentage and .212 ISO score against the pitch. He has also been a top-20 fastball hitter during that span, too. Bregman truly checks off all of the boxes in this spot tonight and due to a slower start, the price tag is still extremely fair.

Hard Contact

Next game:

SEA @ LAA

Time:

04:07PM ET

Opposing pitcher:

Barria (R)

Odds:

SEA +105 / O/U 9.5

IF

Daniel Vogelbach

Seattle Mariners

Salary: 4,000 4,900
FPPG: 16.27 12.00
Projection: 10.93 8.21
Pr/$: 2.73 1.68
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
SEA @ LAA Sat, 20 Apr, 9:07PM ET 3,800 24.70 4,700 18.00
SEA @ LAA Fri, 19 Apr, 10:07PM ET 3,800 28.20 4,600 20.00
SEA @ LAA Thu, 18 Apr, 10:07PM ET 4,000 21.40 4,700 16.00
CLE @ SEA Wed, 17 Apr, 6:40PM ET 3,800 3.00 4,400 2.00
CLE @ SEA Mon, 15 Apr, 10:10PM ET 4,200 0 4,300 0
HOU @ SEA Sun, 14 Apr, 4:10PM ET 4,200 0 4,300 0
HOU @ SEA Sat, 13 Apr, 9:10PM ET 4,200 6.00 4,100 6.00
SEA @ KC Thu, 11 Apr, 1:15PM ET 4,200 21.70 4,700 16.00
SEA @ KC Wed, 10 Apr, 8:15PM ET 3,800 3.50 4,400 2.00
SEA @ KC Tue, 9 Apr, 8:15PM ET 3,500 18.20 4,200 15.00
  YTD - 2019 Splits (v. R) vs Opp
AB 51 46 11
AVG 0.353 0.370 0.545
HR 8 7 3
RBI 14 12 4
SB 0 0 0
H 18 17 6
OPS 1.402 1.421 2.177
SLG 0.902 0.913 1.455
OBP 0.500 0.508 0.722

Next game:

Time:

Opposing pitcher:

Odds:

IF

Jay Bruce

Seattle Mariners

Salary: 3,000 4,800
FPPG: 12.67 9.30
Projection:
Pr/$:
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
SEA @ LAA Sat, 20 Apr, 9:07PM ET 2,800 9.20 4,100 8.00
SEA @ LAA Fri, 19 Apr, 10:07PM ET 3,200 24.70 4,300 19.00
SEA @ LAA Thu, 18 Apr, 10:07PM ET 3,300 6.50 4,500 5.00
CLE @ SEA Wed, 17 Apr, 6:40PM ET 3,000 0 4,200 0
CLE @ SEA Tue, 16 Apr, 10:10PM ET 3,100 18.70 4,400 14.00
HOU @ SEA Sun, 14 Apr, 4:10PM ET 3,700 0 4,100 0
HOU @ SEA Sat, 13 Apr, 9:10PM ET 4,000 0 4,100 0
HOU @ SEA Fri, 12 Apr, 10:10PM ET 4,000 3.00 4,500 2.00
SEA @ KC Wed, 10 Apr, 8:15PM ET 3,600 12.20 4,300 9.00
SEA @ KC Tue, 9 Apr, 8:15PM ET 3,400 22.20 4,000 16.00
  YTD - 2019 Splits (v. ) vs Opp
AB 77 n/a n/a
AVG 0.208 n/a n/a
HR 9 n/a n/a
RBI 16 n/a n/a
SB 0 n/a n/a
H 16 n/a n/a
OPS 0.876 n/a n/a
SLG 0.597 n/a n/a
OBP 0.279 n/a n/a

Hard contact vs RHP: 50 percent

As soon as I saw that the Angels were rolling out Felix Pena tonight, I immediately targeted the Seattle lefties on the other side. Pena is not a very good pitcher and has been awful against lefties. Last season, he surrendered a .274 batting average, .340 wOBA, 25.4 percent line drive rate and 41.6 percent hard contact rate, while only striking them out about 17 percent of the time. Vogelbach, meanwhile, has clearly shown plenty of power so far this year, especially against right-handed pitching, sporting a 50 percent hard contact rate and 43 percent fly ball rate against the handedness. He is striking out 25.5 percent of the time against righties but as we discussed, Pena hasn’t shown the ability to consistently strike left-handed hitters out. Vogelbach has serious home run upside tonight, just make sure he is in the lineup. It could be Jay Bruce at the DH spot, who I’d still be fine with since he is the 10th-best curveball hitter since the 2017 season, a pitch that Pena throws 37 percent of the time so far this season. And since 2017, Bruce is sporting a 1.48 percent home run rate, .244 batting average, .570 slugging percentage and .326 isolated power against the curveball. Whoever is in the DH spot for the Mariners tonight, I like quite a bit.

Slider Data

Next game:

Time:

Opposing pitcher:

Odds:

OF

Aaron Judge

New York Yankees

Salary: 4,500 5,100
FPPG: 12.56 9.50
Projection:
Pr/$:
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
KC @ NYY Sat, 20 Apr, 1:05PM ET 4,500 21.70 5,100 17.00
KC @ NYY Fri, 19 Apr, 7:05PM ET 4,400 12.20 4,900 9.00
KC @ NYY Thu, 18 Apr, 6:35PM ET 4,600 6.20 5,300 5.00
BOS @ NYY Wed, 17 Apr, 6:35PM ET 4,400 0 5,300 0
BOS @ NYY Tue, 16 Apr, 6:35PM ET 4,500 15.00 5,000 13.00
CWS @ NYY Sun, 14 Apr, 1:05PM ET 4,700 12.70 4,900 9.00
CWS @ NYY Sat, 13 Apr, 1:05PM ET 4,700 18.70 5,100 14.00
CWS @ NYY Fri, 12 Apr, 7:05PM ET 4,800 9.70 5,100 6.00
NYY @ HOU Wed, 10 Apr, 7:40PM ET 4,600 9.20 4,400 7.00
NYY @ HOU Tue, 9 Apr, 8:10PM ET 4,500 6.00 4,800 5.00
  YTD - 2019 Splits (v. ) vs Opp
AB 73 n/a n/a
AVG 0.288 n/a n/a
HR 5 n/a n/a
RBI 11 n/a n/a
SB 2 n/a n/a
H 21 n/a n/a
OPS 0.925 n/a n/a
SLG 0.521 n/a n/a
OBP 0.404 n/a n/a

Rank vs slider since 2018: 4th in MLB

Welcome to the Drill Down, Aaron Judge. The New York slugger is still striking out a lot (32.1 percent strikeout rate) but that comes with the territory when using him. Of course, we salivate over the power upside and in Yankee Stadium against Jakob Junis, there is plenty of it. Junis has some strikeout ability but he continuously surrenders the long ball. He coughed up 32 home runs last season and has allowed three so far in 2019. Junis allowed 1.87 HR/9 innings to right-handed hitters last season to go along with a 40 percent fly ball rate and 18.6 percent HR/FB rate. The pitch data also favors Judge here, as maybe no one in baseball tosses the slider at a higher rate than Junis, who is doing so nearly 42 percent of the time so far this season. Judge, meanwhile, ranks fourth in the majors against the pitch since the start of last season, sporting a .292 batting average, .517 slugging percentage and .225 ISO score against the slider. Junis still only has three pitches and pounds the strike zone at one of the highest rates in the league over the last two years. If one of those many sliders hangs in the strike zone, Judge will make no mistake and send it into the bleachers.

Also consider: Paul Goldschmidt, Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy, Luke Voit, Yulieski Gurriel, Jose Abreu, Jose Altuve, Whit Merrifield, Gleyber Torres, Ozzie Albies, Dee Gordon, Brian Dozier, Robinson Cano, Nolan Arenado, Anthony Rendon, Jung-Ho Kang, Yoan Moncada, Willians Astudillo, Jeff McNeil, Eugenio Suarez, Paul DeJong, Jorge Polanco, Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Tim Beckham, J.D. Martinez, Ronald Acuna, Charlie Blackmon, Joc Pederson, Mookie Betts, Nelson Cruz, Eddie Rosario, Marcell Ozuna, Mitch Haniger, Max Kepler, George Springer, Mallex Smith, Tommy Pham, Byron Buxton, Jorge Soler, Matt Kemp, Roman Quinn

Stacks to target: Twins, Astros, Cardinals, Braves

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