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Adam Pfeifer MLB Drill Down

Drill Down | Top Plays Based On Advanced Statistics | Hitter and Pitcher Picks | Monday – Friday


We move on to an 11-game slate here on Wednesday.

There are only two more editions of the Drill Down after today before we make the full-time switch to football. It has been a fun season to this point, though it has also been rather tilting at times. Let’s hope tonight isn’t one of those instances.

 


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wOBA

Next game:

MIN @ CLE

Time:

01:10PM ET

Opposing pitcher:

Bieber (R)

Odds:

MIN +130 / O/U 8.5

IF

C.J. Cron

Minnesota Twins

Salary: 2,800 3,400
FPPG: 9.84 7.40
Projection: 7.60 5.89
Pr/$: 2.72 1.73
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
MIN @ CLE Sat, 14 Sep, 7:10PM ET 2,800 3.00 3,600 3.00
MIN @ CLE Sat, 14 Sep, 1:10PM ET 2,900 0 4,000 0
WSH @ MIN Thu, 12 Sep, 7:40PM ET 2,900 3.00 3,500 3.00
WSH @ MIN Tue, 10 Sep, 7:40PM ET 3,000 0 4,000 0
CLE @ MIN Sun, 8 Sep, 2:10PM ET 3,000 0 3,700 0
CLE @ MIN Sat, 7 Sep, 7:10PM ET 3,000 0 4,500 0
CLE @ MIN Fri, 6 Sep, 8:10PM ET 3,300 9.50 4,400 7.00
MIN @ BOS Thu, 5 Sep, 7:10PM ET 3,200 3.00 4,500 2.00
MIN @ BOS Wed, 4 Sep, 7:10PM ET 3,100 9.00 4,600 8.00
MIN @ BOS Tue, 3 Sep, 7:10PM ET 3,100 3.00 5,000 2.00
  YTD - 2019 Splits (v. R) vs Opp
AB 438 315 45
AVG 0.253 0.225 0.200
HR 24 13 0
RBI 76 45 3
SB 0 0 0
H 111 71 9
OPS 0.786 0.687 0.501
SLG 0.473 0.403 0.267
OBP 0.313 0.284 0.234

wOBA vs LHP: .410 (15th in MLB)

The Twins face a weak lefty tonight in Ross Detwiler, putting seemingly the entire offense in play. Of course, you have to consider Nelson Cruz as arguably the top play of the entire slate but do not sleep on Cron, who has been incredible against southpaws this season. Cron ranks 15th in the majors in wOBA (.410), 13th in isolated power (.321) and 10th in slugging percentage (.642) against left-handed pitching this season. Detwiler, meanwhile, is coughing up a .326 batting average, .410 wOBA, .617 slugging percentage, 11 home runs, 3.06 HR/9 and 28.9 percent HR/FB rate to right-handed hitters. He is also striking them out just over 17 percent of the time. Detwiler is also allowing contact at a healthy 84.5 percent clip, while his 7.2 percent swinging strike rate certainly isn’t anything to write home about. Cron isn’t even striking out that much against lefties, doing so just 16.9 percent of the time on the season. Cron is my favorite first baseman of the entire slate tonight.

Contact Rate

Next game:

TB @ LAA

Time:

04:07PM ET

Opposing pitcher:

Yarbrough (L)

Odds:

LAA +142 / O/U 9.0

IF

David Fletcher

Los Angeles Angels

Salary: 2,600 4,000
FPPG: 8.74 6.90
Projection: 7.72 6.06
Pr/$: 2.97 1.51
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
TB @ LAA Sat, 14 Sep, 9:07PM ET 2,600 0 3,400 0
TB @ LAA Fri, 13 Sep, 10:07PM ET 2,600 6.20 3,400 5.00
CLE @ LAA Wed, 11 Sep, 8:07PM ET 2,600 12.50 3,600 10.00
CLE @ LAA Tue, 10 Sep, 10:07PM ET 2,600 6.00 3,600 6.00
CLE @ LAA Mon, 9 Sep, 10:07PM ET 2,600 6.00 3,400 6.00
LAA @ CWS Sun, 8 Sep, 2:10PM ET 2,700 9.20 3,700 6.00
LAA @ CWS Sat, 7 Sep, 7:10PM ET 2,700 18.70 4,000 13.00
LAA @ CWS Fri, 6 Sep, 8:10PM ET 2,700 3.20 3,400 2.00
LAA @ OAK Thu, 5 Sep, 3:37PM ET 2,700 9.20 0 8.00
LAA @ OAK Wed, 4 Sep, 10:07PM ET 2,800 6.00 3,400 6.00
  YTD - 2019 Splits (v. L) vs Opp
AB 542 169 21
AVG 0.288 0.254 0.238
HR 5 2 1
RBI 45 10 4
SB 8 1 0
H 156 43 5
OPS 0.734 0.683 0.619
SLG 0.386 0.355 0.381
OBP 0.348 0.328 0.238

Contact rate: 91.5 percent (1st in MLB)

The Angels are a top-tier stacking option tonight, facing a righty who doesn’t miss bats in Ariel Jurado. He continues to be reverse splits, surrendering a .326 batting average, .383 wOBA, 12 home runs, 1.96 HR/9, 25 percent HR/FB rate and 42.3 percent hard contact rate to right-handed hitting. Los Angeles has a ton of righties in their lineup, and good ones at that. Fletcher may not have the highest of ceilings but facing a pitcher like Jurado who allows contact nearly 85 percent of the time, he sets up very nicely. No hitter in the majors is sporting a higher contact rate than Fletcher (91.5 percent). He’s also been a reverse splits hitter, sporting a .304 batting average, .331 wOBA, 27 percent line drive rate and 10.9 percent strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. I love the Angels offense tonight and Fletcher is someone you can use in a stack or as a one-off here.

Fly Ball Rate

Next game:

ATL @ WSH

Time:

01:35PM ET

Opposing pitcher:

Fried (L)

Odds:

WSH -102 / O/U 9.5

OF

Adam Eaton

Washington Nationals

Salary: 3,400 4,200
FPPG: 10.49 8.10
Projection: 9.88 7.72
Pr/$: 2.91 1.84
Game Date FD Salary FD FPts DK Salary DK FPts
ATL @ WSH Sat, 14 Sep, 4:05PM ET 3,500 3.00 4,200 3.00
ATL @ WSH Fri, 13 Sep, 7:05PM ET 3,300 6.00 4,100 5.00
WSH @ MIN Thu, 12 Sep, 7:40PM ET 3,200 24.90 4,000 19.00
WSH @ MIN Wed, 11 Sep, 7:40PM ET 3,100 9.20 4,500 7.00
WSH @ MIN Tue, 10 Sep, 7:40PM ET 3,200 0 4,200 0
WSH @ ATL Sun, 8 Sep, 1:20PM ET 3,200 34.90 4,100 25.00
WSH @ ATL Sat, 7 Sep, 7:20PM ET 3,200 6.20 4,200 4.00
WSH @ ATL Fri, 6 Sep, 7:20PM ET 3,400 0 4,200 0
WSH @ ATL Thu, 5 Sep, 7:20PM ET 3,400 0 4,200 0
NYM @ WSH Mon, 2 Sep, 1:05PM ET 3,500 0 4,100 0
  YTD - 2019 Splits (v. L) vs Opp
AB 514 129 62
AVG 0.284 0.295 0.242
HR 14 2 1
RBI 46 9 6
SB 13 3 0
H 146 38 15
OPS 0.809 0.806 0.727
SLG 0.440 0.442 0.371
OBP 0.369 0.364 0.356

Fly ball rate vs RHP: 44.9 percent

I usually don’t love paying a premium for a hitter like Eaton but the matchup is very interesting, facing Asher Wojciechowski and the awful Baltimore bullpen. Woj has been giving up a ton of power to left-handed hitters, surrendering a .376 wOBA, eight home runs, 3.00 HR/9, 54.9 percent fly ball rate and 20.5 percent HR/FB rate to the handedness. Keep in mind that he has all of these poor numbers against lefties while also sporting a 100 percent strand rate against them. That is insane. Eaton, meanwhile, quietly ranks 17th in the majors in fly ball rate against right-handed pitching (44.9 percent). He is also sporting a solid .286 batting average, 10 home runs, .349 wOBA and 10 home runs against the handedness. This has to be the first time Eaton has been in the Drill Down and although he is expensive, he’s been hitting lately and is in a strong matchup.

Also consider: Carlos Santana, Neil Walker, Albert Pujols, Matt Adams, Matt Olson, Yulieski Gurriel, Jeff McNeil, Brian Dozier, Jason Kipnis, Greg Garcia, Miguel Sano, Alex Bregman, Yoan Moncada, Josh Donaldson, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Francisco Lindor, Dansby Swanson, Freddy Galvis, Andrelton Simmons, Mike Trout, Nelson Cruz, Danny Santana, Michael Conforto, Alex Gordon, Ian Desmond, Justin Upton, Anthony Santander.

Stacks to target: Nationals, Twins, Angels

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