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Thursday’s split slate features a ton of great pitching options, similar to Wednesday’s contests. We’ll be focusing on the main evening slate here, but there is plenty of content that touches on the all day slate, including the First Glance MLB podcast with myself and Ricky Sanders.
Lets’ win the buckies.
Baltimore Orioles @ Cincinnati Reds
Wade Miley (L) vs Scott Feldman (R)
BAL -122, OU: 9
Miley: Been good to start the year, but may be getting lucky. He’ sporting an 87.3 percent left-on-base-rate, but his career number sits at just 72.3. Miley also sporting a a BABIP of .208, despite a line drive rate of nearly 25 percent. He’s also still a bad pitcher against righty bats.
Reds to target: Adam Duvall, Eugenio Suarez
Feldman: Also hasn’t been bad so far this year, but doesn’t have overpowering stuff. Has walked eight batters in three starts. Pounds the zone
Orioles to target: Chris Davis, Manny Machado
Those numbers on Wade Miley really, really tell me that he’s due for some regression very soon, and it could start on Thursday. He gets hit hard, but has been lucky to leave so many players on base, while sporting a low BABIP. The Reds aren’t the greatest offense against left-handed pitching, but you can go some places here. Adam Duvall has insane power against anyone, and Miley was brutal against LHH in 2016, surrendering a .299 batting average, .360 wOBA and 1.53 HR/9. Last year, Duvall had a 41.7 percent hard contact rate and near 48 percent fly ball rate against RHP. Eugenio Suarez is probably their best batter against lefties, sporting a .374 wOBA against the handedness last season. As for the Orioles, they are a little interesting. We know Cincinnati is a nice park for power, and we have Chris Davis against a pitcher who has allowed contact almost 85 percent of the time throughout his career, and will pitch-to-contact, sporting a career strikeout rate of 14.5 percent. If Crush gets a hold of one…