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Josh Gross
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Josh Gross

Over-worked Writer at RotoCurve
I'm Josh Gross and I broke into RotoCurve with my weekly PGA article, before expanding into NBA for my daily game by game breakdown discussing any inactive news, picks, etc. This season, I've started MLB as well with a weekly Saturday piece. My favorite DFS sport is NBA, and I want DFS Tennis to debut ASAP.
Josh Gross
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NBA CHEAT SHEETGAMES TO TARGETCONSISTENCY VALUESTONIGHT'S BEST MATCHUPSTONIGHT'S BARGAINSNBA MINUTE MOVERSPTS/MIN LEADERS

 

Let’s agree to forget last night shall we? It was a poor slate going in and injuries (or just not showing up) made it a night to forget. Fortunately tonight we have a 9 game schedule on tap and it is LOADED with value. This should be an exciting one and there is a lot to go over so lets jump right in.

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CHI @ WAS

Inactives

Bulls: Jimmy Butler (OUT), Dwyane Wade (OUT)

Wizards:

Players to Target

Bulls: Michael Carter-Williams, Doug McDermott, Nikola Mirotic

Wizards: John Wall

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Value right off the bat! With Jimmy and D-Wade set to sit, the Bulls lineup is a total mess, but a good mess. We have established roles, but they’ll simply be missing their two biggest usage eaters and sources of offense. Not to mention, Rajon Rondo is still in the doghouse. Tonight, Washington brings a 10 point spread in their favor, and rightfully so with Chicago down their top players. This shouldn’t prevent you from targeting the Bulls though. MCW should see more than 24 minutes, I mean he has to right? He very well may be the best player on the court for Chicago and he’ll come at $4800 against a defenseless Wizards team. My main focus tonight will be on Doug McDermott. They need someone to score the basketball and MCW doesn’t typically offer that. McDermott will get all the missing FGA’s and against Otto Porter who allows tons of FP’s to opposing SF’s. McDermott was horrendous last night, and I’d like to think that scares many away. While his price has jumped to $4400, he had actually reached 6x in his previous two games, and he should be in line for a major increase in usage tonight.

BOS @ TOR

Inactives

Celtics: Avery Bradley (OUT)

Raptors:

Players to Target

Celtics: Al Horford

Raptors: Kyle Lowry, Demarre Carroll

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With Avery Bradley sitting, Kyle Lowry becomes one of my favorite plays on this slate as not only will he avoid Avery Bradley’s defense, but he’ll get a huge mismatch with Isaiah Thomas. Lowry has about four inches on IT2 in height. Isaiah Thomas is typically hidden on the worst of the guards, but in tonights case, Toronto doesn’t have a bad guard, and putting him on DeRozan would create an even worse mismatch. Lowry has just an $8200 price tag, one he’s reached 6x at in two of his latest three matchups with Boston (against a much better defender).

ATL @ BKN

Inactives

Hawks:

Nets: Jeremy Lin (OUT)

Players to Target

Hawks: Dennis Schroder, Dwight Howard

Nets: Spencer Dinwiddie

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This game is a total mess and more so because of the Nets. That team has not a single established role right now, not even with Sean Kilpatrick, and the only role that may be close to established is Brook Lopez who has a horrible matchup tonight. If there’s one man I’m targeting here it’s Dennis Schroder who’s going up against literally nobody (the Nets play zero defense), and the pace should favor him quite well.

CHO @ HOU

Inactives

Hornets: Nicolas Batum (Doubtful), Cody Zeller (GTD)

Rockets: Clint Capela (OUT), Eric Gordon (GTD)

Players to Target

Hornets: Jeremy Lamb, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Frank Kaminsky (if Zeller sits)

Rockets: Pat Beverley, Montrezl Harrell, Sam Dekker (if Gordon sits)

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You’d think I’m into this game for James Harden but thats exactly the opposite. Tonight, I’m focusing more so on a balanced approach. With guys like Kyle Lowry, Kawhi Leonard, Damian Lillard, and Boogie all in terrific situations, I’d rather not spend up on Harden and go for a trio of $8K+ guys with a boat load (thanks Odell) of value to fill out the rest of my lineups. The Hornets are one team filled with value with the absence of Batum and Zeller. Jeremy Lamb is just $4000 on FanDuel. I mean, that’s the biggest lock of the season. Even on DK at $5100, he’s in play despite needing 31 DK Points for value. He just got 29 FP’s in 29 minutes against San Antoino. That game was a blowout, which lost him about 6 minutes. This will be a much faster paced environment with open looks against Harden. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist actually does important things without Batum and they definitely lean on his defense a lot more. With more court time, at a low cost, MKG will be in play for cash tonight, and he will bring some upside as well. Lastly, Frank The Tank. With Zeller sitting, and Hibbert being unable to run with Houston, Tank may see a huge boost in minutes tonight. He averages 25 DKPPG without Zeller and at just $3900, that’s over 6x and he brings some more upside in this matchup.

MIL @ SAS

Inactives

Bucks: Giannis Antetokounmpo (Questionable). Khris Middleton (OUT)

Spurs: LaMarcus Aldridge (OUT)

Players to Target

Bucks: Jabari Parker, Malcolm Brogdon (if Giannis sits)

Spurs: Kawhi Leonard, David Lee

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We’ve had one bombshell dropped in this one with LaMarcus Aldridge sitting. Is Giannis next? Stay tuned to our Twitter for updates on Giannis’ status as that will really settle Milwaukee’s situation tonight. I really want to focus in on David Lee and Kawhi here. Lee sees a major role change when Aldridge sits. His minutes jump to 27 MPG and as a result his DKPPG goes up to 26 FPPG. He’s typically a 1 FPPM player so the numbers match up as they should. He gets a terrific matchup against Jabari Parker as well and will be just $3600 on DraftKings and the bare minimum on FanDuel. He’ll be a cash game necessity for me tonight. Kawhi also sees a boost without Aldridge. His FPPM goes from 1.24 to 1.51 and at 35 minutes, would put him at a pace of 52 DK Points which would be good for nearly 7x value at his $7900 price tag on DraftKings tonight.

CLE @ UTA

Inactives

Cavaliers: J.R. Smith (OUT), Chris Andersen (OUT)

Jazz:

Players to Target

Cavaliers: LeBron James

Jazz: Derrick Favors, Rodney Hood

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This is another game I’m not targeting too heavily. We’ve seen Utah play at a very, very slow pace as they regain full health and Cleveland will play to the speed of their opponents. LeBron is always in play as he just out muscles anyone protecting the rim. He’s gone over 50 FP’s in two of his last four meetings, but at 42 in those other two games. He’s not going to bring the upside we typically see tonight, but he’s going to have a high floor, around 40 DK Points. I’m not positive I want to spend up on a potential 40 burger at $10K tonight, but on FanDuel where you need two SF’s, he makes a better cash play. Favors and Hood are way too cheap and face two of the more vulnerable spots against Cleveland. Favors was awful last game against Memphis. Kevin Love doesn’t bring the defense Memphis does. He was over 30 FP’s in both meetings last season, and seeing 30 minutes, I expect close to the same tonight.

MIA @ GSW

Inactives

Heat: Josh Richardson (Doubtful), Justise Winslow (Out for Seasson)

Warriors: Klay Thompson (OUT)

Players to Target

Heat: Goran Dragic, Hassan Whiteside

Warriors: Steph Curry, Kevin Durant

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With Klay Thompson out, there’s going to be a handful of FGA’s to go around, and logic would say they get spread around between Steph, KD, and Draymond with a few going to McCaw who likely starts. Steph actually sees the biggest USG increase, going from 1.27 FPPM to 1.43. He’s still a bit cheap, and will make a fantastic GPP play. KD’s usage actually drops a tad as does his FPPM without Klay Thompson. It’s a little odd since a lot of minutes come without Klay and obviously he’s been one of the top scorers this season.

POR @ LAL

Inactives

Blazers: Festus Ezeli (OUT)

Lakers: Larry Nance Jr. (OUT)

Players to Target

Blazers: Damian Lillard, Al Farouq-Aminu

Lakers: Julius Randle

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These two met a week ago and the targets remain the same. Dame came back from a lengthy absence and was sort of just getting his feet wet. In his last 2 seasons against the Lakers, he’s reached at least 5x in four meetings. That’s notable for sure, especially when you consider him in cash. If he can get you a floor of 5x, that makes him cash worthy in itself, and of course he comes with uber upside. The Blazers give up FP’s to bigs, we’ve learned this over the course of the season. With Randle playing a lot of center when the Lakers go small, matching him up with Plumlee only gives him a boost in this matchup.

DET @ SAC

Inactives

Pistons: Jon Leuer (Questionable)

Kings:

Players to Target

Pistons: Reggie Jackson, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Tobias Harris

Kings: Anthony Tolliver, DeMarcus Cousins

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All the Boogie tonight guys, especially on FanDuel! With the value throughout this slate, spending up on Boogie and getting yourself the highest outright performer at the position is the best strategy to take. And on DK, He’s not that expensive. Just $10,100, Boogie would have hovered 5x in all of his previous five meetings with Drummond. He’s had a career high in usage this season, so his FP total tonight could see a boost as well. KCP against Kings SG’s is of course in play. We’ve seen the worst SG’s in the league go nuts against the Kings, and he’s a bit of a do it all this year. He’s seen a boost in assists, and with nearly every SG taking a rest tonight, he’s suddenly emerged as one of the best at the position tonight. Tobias Harris will also slide in for Jon Leuer who is OUT, and I expect him to see some run with both the first and second units. He also saw the least minutes of any starter in that double overtime game, so SVG decides to limit his starters’ minutes a bit tonight, Tobias would likely be immune to that.


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