His daily MLB premium article "Sanders' Studs", has quickly become a must read for all serious DFS players. You can also find Ricky every day on the RC Twitter account, providing FREE analysis via periscopes. Ricky is also a proud and active member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.
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The great Tupac once said:
“It’s time for us as a people to start makin’ some changes.”
In the NBA, situations change. In DFS, situations change.
We HAVE to be on top of these changes in order to be successful in NBA DFS. That is what this series will do. Certain players will be in play, so be ahead of the curve and get these players at a discount before it’s too late!
Without further ado, the second edition of “Minute Movers”.
While he does not rate highly on RotoCurve’s minute movers tool, the reason for his absence is because he did not register a single minute prior to Nov. 9 (mostly because he was not on the team). Since joining the team, Ferrell has played 14, 13, 26 and 19 minutes respectively (with the 26 coming in a blowout). Sans Jeremy Lin, the team needs him because Sean Kilpatrick has actually averaged fewer points per game despite a usage rate nearly three percentage points higher (28.3-25.6) without the team’s starting PG. Isaiah Whitehead was an experiment that failed as he has only averaged 6.0 points per game (PPG), 3.0 rebounds per game (RPG) and 3.3 assists per game (APG) in Lin’s absence without making a single three-pointer. Meanwhile, Ferrell has posted lines of 13-5 and 11-4 in his past two games and is quite clearly the only one comfortable handing the ball. With him still listed as minimum price across the industry, there is some upside to rostering him in the near future. As soon as Lin returns, the value evaporates.
Editors note: Ferrell saw 20 minutes on Friday night!
Jose Juan Barea is expected to miss the next six weeks with an Achilles injury and Deron Williams has been ruled out for at least the next two games so playing time has been assured for Seth Curry in the short term (at the very least). According to RotoCurve’s points per minute tool, Curry is only averaging 0.74 fantasy points per minute (FPPM) overall but that number jumps to 0.99 per minute without Williams nor Barea on the floor. Although he is not the next coming of his brother Stephen, he is a career 40.9-percent three point shooter and is averaging 5.8 per-36 minutes this year. Additionally, he can at least contribute marginally in the assist (AST), rebound (REB) and especially steals (STL) categories to fill out his lines. Determining whether or not to use him will be based on price and matchup but his $5,500 price on DraftKings (DK) currently is still well within reason for his increased role. In the only game without Barea this season, Curry played 35.0 minute and put up 38.25 fantasy points (although he registered five steals and two blocks which are both unsustainable).
If there is one guy near the top of the minutes movers list who rates as “Fool’s Gold,” it is Tim Frazier and it is due to no fault of his own. Jrue Holiday is set to join the team on Friday evening and that means Frazier’s reign as the starting point guard has reached a conclusion. Now it remains to be seen if he is still relied upon to play a significant role off the bench but the situation will get even cloudier in a week or so when Tyreke Evans returns. In the span of 7-10 days, this Pelicans team will go from possessing one true ball-handler to three and that will quite clearly drastically reduce Frazier’s usage rate moving forward. Additionally, his monster performances were almost directly correlated to the success of Anthony Davis. With Davis on the court, Frazier has registered an insane 39.7-percent assist rate compared to just 18.2-percent with Davis on the bench. Since he is going to be relegated to playing with the second unit, he is unlikely to spend too much time on the court with Davis. This is going to significantly hurt his production even if his minutes do not plunge (which they are expected to). Do not invest in Frazier in the near future until the situation clarifies itself. On the other hand, Jrue Holiday’s price is awfully affordable for the upside he possesses so he could worth a shot in tournaments until the cost corrects itself.
From the last 10 games to his last five, Kenneth Faried has seen his minutes jump by about 2.0 per game because Coach Michael Malone has inserted him into the starting lineup. In the three games he has started since his promotion, he has produced 23.0, 48.0 and 48.25 fantasy points respectively en route to a whopping 1.59 FPPM compared to just 0.96 FPPM off the bench. Clearly, he relishes the opportunity to face the opposing teams’ best although it should come with the caveat his last two games have been against the league’s worst defense (Suns) and the team allowing the most rebounds to opponents (Trail Blazers). The starting role has guaranteed at least a few extra minutes and he could earn even some additional minutes in the immediate future if he keeps playing like a beast. The combination of Jusuf Nurkic and Nikola Jokic has led to each of the Nuggets’ top two most common lineups resulting in a negative net rating including the Emmanuel Mudiay, Gary Harris, Danilo Gallinari, Jokic and Nurkic lineup (second most common) possessing a -25.5 net rating (although the identical lineup with Faried instead of Jokic has resulted in a -11.3 net rating as well). Still, the team seems focused on splitting up the mins for the two centers which limits their minutes but is clearly extending Faried’s as well as his opportunity. He has always been a beast per minute and his greatest obstacle has been his coach’s opposition to playing him. If the team is going to commit to him as a starter, he should prove to be an excellent DFS investment on a regular basis.
There are very few hard and fast rules in the game of daily fantasy basketball but being able to trust a team with a lazy/immobile center’s best rebounder is one of them. Last year, Roy Hibbert played with the Lakers and Julius Randle averaged 10.2 RPG and he is down to averaging 8.7 RPG this year next to the much more active Timofey Mozgov. The same holds true for Taj Gibson this season starting next to a reasonably un-athletic Robin Lopez; his rebound percentage has increased from 13.7-percent to 15.8-percent. On the other hand, Kristaps Porzingis’ has plummeted from 14.0 to 11.4-percent going from playing next to Lopez to starting next to Joakim Noah (literally the inverse phenomenon of Gibson). Well, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist has not only seen an increase in minutes recently due to the fact he is the team’s best defender but he has enjoyed an increase in rebounding percentage now that Hibbert is on board: from 12.0-percent last year compared to 13.5-percent this year. The only revolving parts in the rotation recently has been the minutes limit for Roy Hibbert and the occasional rest day for Spencer Hibbert. Both have indirectly resorted in more minutes for Kidd-Gilchrist at power forward with Frank Kaminsky moving over and playing more center than usual. This is not a gigantic move but it is notable when the team is playing a bad rebounding opponent because Kidd-Gilchrist is averaging nearly 2.0 more defensive rebounds per game this year than last year…or a nearly 3.50 more fantasy points per game just from rebounding.