Latest posts by Chris Garosi (see all)
- DraftKings Fantasy Golf Picks: BMW Championship “Sleepers” - September 6, 2016
- DraftKings Fantasy Golf Picks: Deutsche Bank Championship “Sleepers” - August 30, 2016
- DraftKings Fantasy Golf Picks: The Barclays “Sleepers” - August 23, 2016
There are just two more weeks left in the PGA season as we head to the penultimate tournament – the BMW Championship at Crooked Stick Golf Club. Rory McIlroy comes in off a win to “defend” his title here from 2012. What? I’ll explain later.
It’s another week of hunting for DraftKings Fantasy PGA Sleepers. It’s a small field so we have fewer options when looking for sleepers this week.
Each week, I will offer a few picks for this week’s PGA slate. As always, I will try to weave in players from a few pricing tiers – this won’t be a column on the five cheapest guys each week and why they have a 1% chance of making the cut. We will focus on players who may be off the radar, but offer value for their price.
A balanced lineup in Daily Fantasy Golf is important so I want to offer you opportunities to construct lineups with sleepers at a variety of price points. As always, suggestions are appreciated to help improve the column and so we can better meet your DFS needs.
This week it’s off to Carmel, Indiana for the BMW Championship at Crooked Stick Golf Club. The BMW moves from course to course each year and it’s back to the 2012 venue this week.
The course plays as a par 72 at 7,516 yards up from 7,497 yards in 2012. The biggest changes are to the par 4 10th which increases 60 yards from 397 to 457 yards and the par 5 11th shrinking 39 yards from 595 to 556 yards. We have bentgrass on the greens yet again this week.
Crooked Stick was built by Pete and Alice Dye in 1964. Dye has a number of courses on regular rotation on Tour. It’s one of the longer Dye courses on Tour, but each Dye course uses some of the same visual tricks and each hole alternates direction to keep the players guessing on wind.
Here is a list of some the Dye courses which have been used on Tour and some recent events held there
Crooked Stick Golf Club –BMW Championship (2012 and 2016) – Par 72, 7,516 yards
Harbour Town Golf Links – RBC Heritage (1969 to present) – Par 71, 7,101 yards
Kiawah Island Ocean Course – PGA Championship (2012) – Par 72, 7,873 yards
TPC of Louisiana – Zurich Classic of New Orleans (2005, 2007 to present) – Par 72, 7,399 yards
TPC River Highlands – Travelers Championship (1984 to present) – Par 70, 6,841 yards
TPC Sawgrass – Stadium Course – THE PLAYERS Championship (1982 to present) – Par 72, 7,215 yards
PGA West – CareerBuilder Challenge (2016) – Par 72, 7,300 yards
Whistling Straits – Straits Course – PGA Championship (2010 and 2015) – Par 72, 7,790 yards
The weather looks like it will impact us again this week with thunderstorms possible Thursday, Friday and Saturday. There may not be delays with such a small field, but we could see the lift, clean and replace that we did here in 2012.
As for the key stats I’ll focus on this week, I’ll provide a short list below.
Par 5 Scoring Average (P5SA): With four par 5s, the bulk of the scoring will come on these holes. Three of the four are between 523 and 556 yards so we will also look at efficiency in the range between 500 and 550.
Par 4 Efficiency 450-500 yards (P4E450-500) – Seven of the ten par 4s are now between 454 and 497 yards with an eighth at 442 yards. Check!
Strokes Gained Approach-the-Green (SG:APP) – You will see a lot of talk about distance off the tee being important and being able to bomb the ball helps on just about any course. However, I’d rather focus on the second shot this week so we’ll go with SG:APP. Recall that SG:APP is a part of SG:T2G so there is a bit of double counting going on here. For more on how SG:APP, check out this primer on all the Strokes Gained stats.
Finally, we’ll take a look at some other second shot stats as we focus on Efficiency from the Fairway > 200 yards (Eff>200:Fairway) and Efficiency from the Fairway between 175 and 200 yards (Eff175-200:Fairway). Thanks to one of our Twitter friends we see the importance of those efficiency scores from 2012.
Our tiebreaker for the week is Performance on Pete Dye courses as provided by our friend Josh Culp.
I’m focused on 2016 stats of course, but will certainly refer back to 2015 if needed.
And of course, we examine Strokes Gained: Putting (SG:P) and Strokes Gained: Tee to Green (SG:T2G) with more weight on SG:T2G again this week.
DraftKings High End Sleepers
These aren’t high end prices, but we’re looking for premium players at a discount rate.
We have 10 golfers in the $8,000 to $8,900 range this week.
It’s tough to pick through the guys at $8,000 this week as I can see an argument for almost all of them. But, we’re here to find a couple of sleepers with a couple of warts who might be lower-owned. No excuses!
Bubba Watson ($8,600)
Bubba is 14th in my statistical model this week (6th in SG:T2G, 163rd in SG:P, 5th in P5SA, 39th in P4E:400-450, 14th in P5E:500-550, 26th in SG:APP, 89th in Eff>200:Fairway and, 60th in Eff>200:Fairway) and he’s the 14th highest priced player on DK. Coincidence? Um, yea, probably. He finished T12 in 2012 at Crooked Stick and has had success at other Dye courses. He missed the cut last week so I hope that’s enough to put people off his scent.
Matt Kuchar ($8,200)
Kuchar isn’t a sleeper when it comes to Pete Dye courses, however he’s struggled in the first two playoff events finishing outside the top 45 in each. He also struggled to a 64th place finish at Crooked Stick in 2012. But, he’s seventh in the stats model for the week (19th in SG:T2G, 24th in SG:P, 42nd in P5SA, 27th in P4E:400-450, 49th in P5E:500-550, 52nd in SG:APP, 37th in Eff>200:Fairway and, 22nd in Eff>200:Fairway) and I think he’ll be ignored a bit based on his current form.
If you want to feel safer then take old friend Paul Casey ($8,300) who struggled on Monday last week to give up the lead and the tourney. He lines up nicely again this week and is in excellent form.
If we go into the $9,000 range, I’d go with Louis Oosthuizen at $9,300 as it’s tough to pass up his current form.
The Soft Middle
Looking for some soft pricing in the lower tiers.
There are 23 golfers in the $7,000 to $7,900 range this week.
Daniel Berger ($7,800)
Berger sits just outside the top 20 in my stats model for the week (39th in SG:T2G, 46th in SG:P, 70th in P5SA, 40th in P4E:400-450, 96th in P5E:500-550, 34th in SG:APP, 104th in Eff>200:Fairway and, 38th in Eff>200:Fairway), but that offers some value here under $8k. He didn’t play Crooked Stick in 2012 (his BMW debut was last year where he finished second). His form is heading in the wrong direction as he’s finished T5, T70, T41 in his last three. However, he did finish T20 at the Zurich (on a Dye course) earlier this year.
Russell Knox ($7,800)
He’s back on the list again after a solid showing last week and he’s now made eight cuts in a row with five top 25s including a win at the Travelers (on Dye redesign). The stats do not call for using Knox this week (44th in SG:T2G, 111st in SG:P, 92nd in P5SA, 110th in P4E:400-450, 151st in P5E:500-550, 40th in SG:APP, 111st in Eff>200:Fairway and, 43rd in Eff>200:Fairway). Along with the win at the Travelers, he’s finished T19 at THE PLAYERS and T2 at the RBC Heritage this year – both Dye courses.
Jason Kokrak ($7,500)
Kokrak is 25th in the stats review for the week (24th in SG:T2G, 165th in SG:P, 42nd in P5SA, 44th in P4E:400-450, 72nd in P5E:500-550, 31st in SG:APP, 15th in Eff>200:Fairway and, 130th in Eff>200:Fairway). He also has back to back top 10s to start off the playoffs and he finished T6 at the RBC Heritage and T34 at the Travelers. And for those of you who are into those things he bombs it off the tee as he’s currently sixth in driving distance. He did not tee it up here in 2012.
And you may as well play Hudson Swafford ($7,100) again. Everyone else is doing it! He is 20th in the stats model for the week.
El Cheapo Guapo
They won’t cost you much, but they have real upside. And they sure are handsome.
There are 26 golfers in the $6,000 to $6,900 range this week with only 8 below $6,500
Smylie Kaufman ($6,800)
Kaufman looked to be on fumes heading into last week’s DBC and then he popped for a T24 after missing four cuts in a row. Again this week, Kaufman looks to be a solid statistical fit as his profile is good for 23rd in the field (73rd in SG:T2G, 78th in SG:P, 36th in P5SA, 12th in P4E:400-450, 61st in P5E:500-550, 103rd in SG:APP, 6th in Eff>200:Fairway and, 141st in Eff>200:Fairway). This is Smylie’s first BMW start
Harris English ($6,700)
English is one spot ahead of Kaufman in terms of stats (112nd in SG:T2G, 7th in SG:P, 59th in P5SA, 42nd in P4E:400-450, 52nd in P5E:500-550, 76th in SG:APP, 17th in Eff>200:Fairway and, 60th in Eff>200:Fairway) and is a bit better in terms of form than Kaufman. English has made nine cuts in a row, but hasn’t been inside the top 40 at a stroke play event since the U.S. Open (T37).
David Hearn ($6,700)
Hearn is your guy if you want another Dye-specialist even if he was T65 here in 2012. His par 5 work may be a bit concerning this week (72nd in SG:T2G, 50th in SG:P, 140th in P5SA, 50th in P4E:400-450, 166th in P5E:500-550, 21st in SG:APP, 136th in Eff>200:Fairway and, 10th in Eff>200:Fairway).He comes in off a T8 at the DBC last weekand finished T28 at THE PLAYERS and T20 at the Zurich this year while missing the cut at the RBC Heritage.
Each week, I’ll throw one player out there who has one thing working for him. He’s probably got a less than 10% chance of making the cut, but if you want gamble in larger GPPs, it doesn’t hurt to have unicorn on your side.
We don’t have any golfers below $6,000 for the week so the Unicorn is on hiatus until next season. Wait, no it’s not….we’ll just make the cut off $6,500!
Brian Stuard ($6,400)
Stuard won the rain-shortened Zurich Classic this year on a Dye course. He also finished T5 at the 2014 RBC Heritage and T17 at THE PLAYERS in 2014 both on Dye courses. The stats don’t like him at all. In fact, I might say there is mild hate from the stats (116th in SG:T2G, 102nd in SG:P, 187th in P5SA, 166th in P4E:400-450, 141st in P5E:500-550, 130th in SG:APP, 108th in Eff>200:Fairway and, 75th in Eff>200:Fairway). However, he’s made five cuts in a row with his best finish of the run his T21 last week. On Dye courses, it’s not always about stats but the ability to master the visual tricks that Dye puts out each hole, Stuard has been able to do so in the past.
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