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Josh Gross
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Josh Gross

Over-worked Writer at RotoCurve
I'm Josh Gross and I broke into RotoCurve with my weekly PGA article, before expanding into NBA for my daily game by game breakdown discussing any inactive news, picks, etc. This season, I've started MLB as well with a weekly Saturday piece. My favorite DFS sport is NBA, and I want DFS Tennis to debut ASAP.
Josh Gross
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NBA CHEAT SHEETGAMES TO TARGETCONSISTENCY VALUESTONIGHT'S BEST MATCHUPSTONIGHT'S BARGAINSNBA MINUTE MOVERSPTS/MIN LEADERS

Well last night delivered once again! Our tools and picks have been spot on of late and we’ll look to continue that tonight with a smaller, but exciting six game slate sporting Harden, Russ, LeBron, and CP3. Three of the four draw top matchups while one, not so much. We’ll discuss them all so lets dive right in!

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NYK @ PHI

Injuries

Knicks:

Sixers:

Players to Target

Knicks: Derrick Rose, Carmelo Anthony

Sixers: Joel Embiid, Nik Stauskas

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This is a game featuring a Knicks team in free fall and the Sixers who have been playing some good basketball. This will be more competitive than one might expect and Vegas agrees with just a 2 point spread being offered. Joel Embiid comes at an expensive price tag of $8K on DraftKings, and he’ll need 48 DK Points for value, a number he’s eclipsed just once all season. I lean towards using him more so on FanDuel where he’s $7500 and needing just 37.5 FD Points, a number he’s more capable of reaching with a 30 minute limit. Carmelo is more of a GPP play tonight, as he has been a majority of the season. He’s gone over 6x just once in his last five meetings with Philly and his price has jumped to the upper $7K’s. Philly does struggle against 3’s so Melo will be a top option at the SF position tonight in tournaments.

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HOU @ MIN

Injuries

Rockets: Eric Gordon, Clint Capela (OUT)

Wolves: Zach Lavine (OUT)

Players to Target

Rockets: James Harden, Pat Beverley, Corey Brewer, Montrezl Harrell

Wolves: Karl Anthony-Towns, Nemanja Bjelica, Andrew Wiggins

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James Harden on a back to back? Sure, in this matchup! This game brings just a 4 point spread and with Houston on the road, they’re slightly more vulnerable to staying close in this ballgame which of course helps Harden for minutes and production. He played 40 minutes last night but with the absence of Eric Gordon, he may have no choice but to match that total. He’s $12K so he needs 72 DK Points for 6x value but he’s reached 60 FP’s in two of his last four meetings with Minnesota. Without Lavine there, he’ll likely be defended by either Ricky Rubio or Andrew Wiggins. Wiggins is a good defender but we’ve seen Harden dominate good defenders this season. I’m all aboard the Harden train tonight, especially over Russ. Corey Brewer played the Eric Gordon role off the bench last night and is bare minimum tonight. Getting 25 minutes off the bench only increases his usage and has a good shot at reaching 18 FP’s in that role. KAT had a ridiculous 41-16 effort earlier this season against Houston and that was against Clint Capela. Tonight he’ll draw a combo of Harrell and Nene. One who plays no defense, and the other is an old man. He comes at an expensive price but he’s likely to see 38-40 minutes in this one, and with an expected close game has a good shot at exceeding value despite the high price tag. Without Lavine, Nemanja Bjelica sees the minutes bump but it’s anyones guess as to whether the production is there. In this matchup one would imagine Bjelica should produce. Pace is there, lack of defense, and he’ll be seeing minutes.

MEM @ OKC

Injuries

Grizzlies:

Thunder:

Players to Target

Grizzlies: Mike Conley, Zach Randolph, Marc Gasol

Thunder:

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I don’t love this game. This was a disaster the first time out and even though Russ was ejected, he wasn’t doing so great in his 24 minutes of court time, with just 28 DK Points. I think Russ underperforms in this matchup, and for just $200 more you can have Harden in what should be an extremely fast paced matchup with limited defending. The Grizzlies sport some real value here. Mike Conley gets to face Russ in a game that will push the pace more so than Memphis usually plays. He’s hit 6x in his last three games, two of which sported difficult matchups. He’s tonights top mid range PG and represents a terrific cash option at the position.

WAS @ BOS

Injuries

Wizards:

Celtics: Avery Bradley (Questionable). Tyler Zeller (OUT)

Players to Target

Wizards: John Wall, Bradley Beal, Marcin Gortat

Celtics: Isaiah Thomas, Marcus Smart

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Tonights top game in our Game Theory tool, it could get even better if Avery Bradley is officially ruled out. It would open up Wall and Beal both as top guard plays tonight as neither would have to deal with Bradley’s defending. Wall has actually struggled against Boston, with just one game OVER 40 FP’S in his last five meetings. The Avery Bradley effect? He’ll be a tournament play should Bradley be in, but a strong cash option if he sits. Gortat has seen 5x in four of five meetings with Boston and represents the prototypical cash play at center, sporting a high floor, and comes with a high ceiling, especially if Wall gets locked down. We’ve seen Gortat play nearly 40 MPG since the New Year, which means he needs just 0.75 FPPM to reach 5x while he’s been a 0.89 FPPM player all season. If Bradley sits, of course IT2 is in play averaging 50 DKPPG without Avery Bradley this season. It would be a plus matchup as well, in a high game total, with the top average pace amongst tonights games. Not to mention he’s averaged 45 DKPPG against Washington in his last three meetings WITH Avery Bradley.

CLE @ POR

Injuries

Cavaliers: JR Smith (OUT)

Blazers:

Players to Target

Cavaliers: Kyrie Irving, LeBron James, Kevin Love

Blazers: Damian Lillard, Al-Farouq Aminu

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Very interesting game here. Both teams played last night so the back-to-back is scary enough. On top of that, they both had travel issues last night with snow in Portland last night. I believe Cleveland got in very, and I mean very late while Portland was diverted to Seattle and flew in this morning. Both teams are likely tired, and Cleveland is already 3-4 on the second leg of back to backs. This one should stay close and Vegas has a high total, but it’s possible this is an ugly game. I do think the stars bring value because Portland plays no defense and of course Dame gets Kyrie. Kevin Love is the RC #1 Rating and #1 RC Ratings have been crushing value all season. LeBron will draw a premium matchup with Portland lacking a true rim protector. If I’m ranking who to use in this one, it’d be LeBron, Kyrie, Love, then Dame.

ORL @ LAC

Injuries

Magic: Elfrid Payton, Serge Ibaka (Questionable)

Clippers: Blake Griffin (OUT)

Players to Target

Magic: Evan Fournier, DJ Augustin (if Payton sits), Nikola Vucevic

Clippers: Chris Paul, JJ Redick

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So, Serge Ibaka missed shootaround which doesn’t bode well for his chances in playing tonight. The line hasn’t really shifted yet which is somewhat significant since both Ibaka and Payton’s statuses are up in the air. For now, we’re going to treat the situation as if Ibaka sits. CP3 is an elite PG tonight regardless as neither Augustin and Payton defend well, and if Elf plays, a worn down, not 100% Payton defending CP3 seems like a disaster. Paul just went 19 points, 18 assists in 29 minutes on Miami. JJ Redick is a terrific option on FanDuel where he’s priced just $4500 in, dare I say a revenge game! Redick as we know performs far better with CP3 in the lineup and Orlando is prone to giving up points against SG’s. If Ibaka is sitting, I love both Magic bigs. I do worry they play some small ball and leave one of the two out of the picture (likely Biyombo). For that purpose, Vuc and Biyombo are both tournament plays.

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