Latest posts by Josh Collacchi (see all)
- DFS MLB Starting Pitcher Picks for Friday September 29 - September 29, 2017
- DFS MLB Starting Pitcher Picks for Thursday September 28 - September 28, 2017
- DFS MLB Starting Pitcher Picks for Wednesday September 27 - September 27, 2017
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Remember yesterday when we mentioned how it was a bad day for pitchers? It was. But no one foresaw it being THAT bad. Sheesh.
But as always, a bad pitching slate is followed by a great one. We definitely have some solid arms on the bump today.
Let’s get into it!
For those returning to the “On the Bump” column, welcome back. For those new to the column, welcome! I will go through my favorite pitchers each day discussing who I want to play, why I want to play them, which contests to play them in, and more.
This is not a “pick Clayton Kershaw because he’s Clayton Kershaw” column. We will dig in to the numbers. There will be days where the pitchers we like are very expensive, some days where the pitchers are bargains. MLB DFS is all about getting your pitchers right, so that’s the focal point here!
Each day there is at least one risk/reward GPP play of the day. Everyone loves spending for those stacks in tournaments, so why not give the GPP players some risk/reward options too.
In addition, I’ll provide some pitchers to target batters against. Pitching is the name of the game in MLB DFS, so “On the Bump” will be a go to each day.
A few years back, I discussed a checklist that I like to use for my pitching research. That can be found here.
Without further ado, today’s edition of “On the Bump”:
Chris Sale, BOS @ OAK
- Athletics: .353 wOBA, .161 ISO, 23.7 strikeout rate against lefties at home this season.
- Athletics: second-worst in baseball against the cutter, worst in baseball against the curveball. More on this later.
- Sale currently sits at a -178 favorite in the game with the lowest implied total of the day at just seven runs.
- In 2017, Sale is throwing 33 percent four-seamers, 15 percent sinkers, 29 percent sliders (which is basically a hard curveball with his movement) and 22.88 percent changeups.
- Opponents are hitting .129 against his four-seamer, .143 against his sinker, .256 against his changeup, and .140 against his slider.
- Sale’s slider has generated a swing and miss over a quarter of the time it is thrown this season, and a rate of 46 percent whiffs on swings.
- With Sale’s slider “really” being a hard curveball, this bodes well against the Athletics who are last against breaking balls in all of baseball.
- Want proof? Sale’s vertical movement on his slider was at -3.89 inches last season. (Per Brooks Baseball)
- By comparison, Justin Verlander’s curveball (known as a great one) is sitting at -5.44 inches of vertical movement this season. Given the relative arm slots (Sale is closer to sidearm), the movement can be construed as similar, just the fact that Sale is getting six inches of horizontal movement as well. Insane.
- Without getting too confusing, the point is the Athletics should have a very hard time with Sale’s slider given the level of movement and their struggles against breaking pitches this season.
I know that’s a lot of information, but hopefully it helps. Let’s win the money today!
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I believe in accountability in DFS, so I will update this each day with the stats of pitchers that were included in this column as the pitchers to target. Good or bad, every pitcher I discuss as a play will be added to this report. Yes, this includes the risk/reward pitchers.
Since this current format of On The Bump (starting April 11th, 2016) here are the cumulative pitching stats of those discussed:
201-156 (W-L) 3.45 ERA 2996 IP 1153 ER 2879 K
Last “On the Bump’s” starting pitchers:
We mentioned Ervin Santana and Marcus Stroman, who combined for 12 IP 5 ER 9 K
Risk/Reward GPP Plays
We mentioned Tanner Roark, Jordan Montgomery, and Julio Teheran. Combined for 13 IP 21 ER 9 K. Teheran got SHELLED for three home runs.
If you’d like to view the past On the Bump columns, they are all here.